Biggest lay this year???

Agree with conti.

Faugheen at 5/4 is ridiculous.

3/1 the new one

the red keeps piling up

Dodging Bullets is the biggest lay, can't have him round here

as Sire de Grugy doesn't look too shabby at the moment & Sprinter Sacre was given a tender time by Barry on his return

i'll be betting dodging bullets, less question marks against him than the others imo !!

all about opinions

Well, without layers, there'd be nothing to back.

At the prices, day one looks like it has potential for being a massive day for the layers - I think all four favs in the big races are too short, Douvan in particular could get the layers off to a cracking start. I'd also be against Silvi at less than 3/1.

The Triumph is looking like the best field in years. Peace & Co. lay lay lay at the prices.

Yeah I'm thinking the same, there is definitely some scope for laying a few of the shorties this year and that's coming from a backer! Also don't like the new ones chances that much either after his hard luck story last year! And don't fancy dodging bullets or balders success much either! I would have champagne fever in a match in a few weeks to beat bullets!

Not lays as such but ones I really cannot have are :

The New One - Champion Hurdle
Parlour Games - Neptune
Outlander - Neptune
Don Poli - RSA
Sprinter Sacre - Champ Chase
Don Cossack - Ryanair
Balder Succes - Ryanair

Can't be having L'Ami Serge either

.......one I really cannot have is :

Zarkander - stayers hurdle

Zarkander could be the back to lay this year! As can see him running full of beans coming to the last but just not getting past least 1 or 2 of the hardened stayers!

Douvan - Supreme Novices.

Zarkandar (Stayers) Beaten too far last year             
Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) Tried twice already and can't believe he can win a GC at the third time of asking
Don Cossack (Ryanair) Just can't have it that there isn't at least one who will beat him
Parlour Game (Neptune) I will take on fancied Ferguson horses at Cheltenham because it's made me lots of money

Wouldn't risk laying too many WPM shorties - could get poor very quickly because the man's very good and he's in danger of taking things to a whole new level - but good luck to those laying UDS, Annie, Faugheen and particularly Douvan. I see the attraction of trying to get it beat in the opener - but the whole of Carlow is queuing up to take whatever you want to put up!

Parlour Game (Neptune) I will take on fancied Ferguson horses at Cheltenham because it's made me lots of money


delsie777 just remind me what fancied runners he has actually had...tell you the truth i can't remember many, can you remind me???

I can't remember them all, Harry - I nust admit I tend to lay his horses blind due to his festival record. I guess the two big ones were Cotton Mill who tried to run out behind Simonsig in 2012 and that New Years Eve who Barry rode in the bumper - he was gambled down to fav if I remember rightly. Sorry if I touched a nerve - I do respect him as a trainer but I don't rate the type of horse he has as Prestbury horses

no you didn't touch a nerve - i just couldn't remember him having many fancied runners in which to make money out of and needed reminding

can't say i am a follower of him, although he has some nice types this year in which to go to war with

"Wouldn't risk laying too many WPM shorties - could get poor very quickly because the man's very good and he's in danger of taking things to a whole new level - but good luck to those laying UDS, Annie, Faugheen and particularly Douvan. I see the attraction of trying to get it beat in the opener - but the whole of Carlow is queuing up to take whatever you want to put up!"

Put the Koolaid down for goodness sake. WPM is doing nothing different then what trainers have done for decades. He has the best horses money can buy because the guy is a brilliant businessman and this is how is able to get all these wealthy owners. The most successful trainers all have that same attribute i.e. the ability to sell themselves. As far a being a trainer i'd probably have him in the Top 5 but definitely not in the Top 3.

He better start winning Championship races cause if you take HF out of the equate his tally is dismal.

Isn't that the point? He has the best horses money can buy - exactly - that's what makes me wary of laying them. He's been ok for a while, but it's only the last couple of years that he's been getting this type of ammo - Faugheen, Vatour, UDS etc. Look what Nicholls did when he was able to demand the best - Kauto, Masterminded, Denman... the balance of power moves with the big owners and Mullins has them now. Still, good luck to you if you have the big ones to lay them all. Me? I'll let them run and leave the laying to the big boys.

A few winners tipped in this thread ! I'm a backer of The New One, Sire De Grugy, Zarkandar & Silviniaco Conti.

Lays for me would be - Jezki, Sprinter Sacre & Cue Card.

"Isn't that the point? He has the best horses money can buy - exactly - that's what makes me wary of laying them."

Damn you and your logic. Thanks for ruining a good rant.

I'm laying them but planing to trade out before off.

Peace and co in the triumph would be the favourite to take on at cheltenham I just can't have him on view and price

From a trading perspective I think Peace and Co is the obvious one, as I find it nigh-on impossible to believe that he won't be available at at least 1 pt bigger through offers, or even through a drift, at some point between now and the race. I'd be a back-to-layer on him as I wouldn't want to take him on too heavily but do think the 2-1 is wrong.

Sorry... should read lay-to-backer...

SoYouThink  --  Tipping 6/1 lays is the same as tipping 1/6 winners. If you were laying Un de Sceaux you'd have more credibility.
Same goes for TheCollector with Parlour Games and Balder. Sorry, but is anyone here actually going to lay anything?

my lays:

Supreme: Douvan
JLT: Vautour
Triumph: Peace and Co
World: Zarkandar

funny pete

well the one i'm keen to lay is sprinter sacre 

horse looks gone to me and i didn't have him running a decent figure at ascot either...no matter how you cut it, he is regressive and the race looks very competitive as well, so i will be taking him on and probably in the place market as well, as can see him folding when the taps are turned on...i'm just hoping he is over bet on the day tbh

C'mon Harry, you're not a mug, you know how this game works: tell us a price. What price would you
be prepared to lay SS to place? Evens? 10/11? 11/10?

L'ami serge looks the one to lay for me, along with Zarkandar. Interestingly, PFN said tonight on twitter that there's nothing to choose between Z and SDR..

L'ami serge looks the one to lay for me, along with Zarkandar. Interestingly, PFN said tonight on twitter that there's nothing to choose between Z and SDR..

pete i'd be happy to accommodate 1.8 on the day but will be hoping to lay him in the run as well at 1.5 ish and some shorter as he is a snaffle horse...but can also still see him backed into favorite with the public money, so we maybe able to get him shorter hopefully...we will see

what price do you think he will be come the day pete

a lot of the in running will depend on mr mole jumping off and behaviour pre race, as do want him running for me, if he is with the field i will have a decent wager

Well, SS looks like he's going to be there. They're talking a good story, anyway. I had a small bet when
bookies first started going NRNB because I thought they'd only run him if he was back to his best. That
theory's kinda gone out of the window - and the exchange price is the same as the NRNB price, so everyone
thinks he's going. I'd say SP will be 5/2 - 11/4. Place price on here? Maybe 4/5, like you said.

It's a brave place lay, imo. Even 20lb short of his best, he should place.

I think 3-1 SS is a very fair price indeed and wouldn't be going anywhere near the pink button. He may never be what he was but he had stacks in hand of all of these and I expect him to improve a lot fro the Ascot run. Very much take Pete's comments on board about putting up 6-1 lays (it's hardly tough), so to bring the combined odds down, I'd be happy to take on Champagne Fever, Dodging Bullets and Mr Mole. I think SS and SDG are a good bit better and that one or both of them will run near enough their best to get the job done.

Mullins always 'gives the bookies one' of his shortees. Him being unusually bullish about Douvan reminds me of pont alexandre 2013.

well to be honest pete the way my season has been it probably isn't a good play but lots of my playing is in the place market and am keen to get him, it has nothing to do with ability he used to have but we have seen him twice in 2 years and i didn't buy his last race and thought he folded tamely admittedly on ground not ideal for him

however i fancy champagne and sire to place so am very much against him to get run out of it, at the end of the day he will be ridden to challenge and go and win the race, whereas some will be ridden to place and if he hits the wall barry won't flog him...anyway there is no easy money as you know but if my ratings are right i don't have him much above the horses around him (adjusted to what i think he could be now) in the betting and he looks fragile imo

if the ground were to be on the fast side like last year i may reconsider, after all that would massively favour him but as we stand i will be taking him on...i know it seems strange but mr mole matters a lot to me jumping off as i quite like him to get in the money and i want him running for me, so it will be a late bet for me

Fair enough Harry. You may as well keep things in your favour and wait till the day. I've a bit of dread that
SS isn't going to have a happy ending. I hope I'm wrong.

If I was going to nominate a lay for the Festival, I would probably say TNO, but that's a 1/3 shot, so isn't
much of a tip. I just can't be convinced by his runs. Jezki, Faugheen and HF? One of them will beat him for sure.

Douvan and Faugheen are the two I'm out to get. Either or both might win but they've both got enough questions to answer for the prices they are

So your idea of the biggest lay of the year is for an unbeaten horse nicknamed `The Machine` who's form in behind is confirmed left and right? A winner of 3 grade 1's in imperious fashion and he still has questions to answer? Good luck with that.

My biggest lays of the festival are P&C and Douvan who are too short for what they've shown so far. The former's price is based on an unreliable performance which most are taking at face value, he then took part in a farce of a race where we learned nothing, while the latter beat nothing of note, has form only on heavy/soft ground and is being hyped by the trainer and jockey who have proven time and time again they have no idea who their best horses are until they put them in a proper race.

A horse that is a short priced fav will always have questions to answer until he  runs against horses that can actually have a chance of winning the race he's short priced fav for.
So yes,Faugheen has questions to answer.....no doubt.

timtin - what price are you laying Faugheen at, please?

Faugheen is surely too short, as are Douvan and Peace and Co.

Budd, he has always been short priced favourite and there were always some punters willing to stick their money for other horses in his races thinking they `actually have a chance of winning` so in that sense he always had questions to answer. The problem is that he always answered those questions and in style of a champion so the only question or goal left to achieve is to win that title officially. Some people are making him the biggest lay of the year so in this case I can only wish them good luck as they'll need it in abundance.

Personally when I lay a horse I try to give reasons for why I lay them which I did for P&C and Douvan, I don't leave it up in the air with `questions to answer` as the non-existent reason. If he has questions to answer than I'm sure you could write them here for people to either agree or disagree, speed, track, pace angle, form, trip, ground, etc etc. would be valid reasons for laying a short price favourite. P&C for me its his form, Douvan his form and ground, they shouldn't be so low especially in such competitive fields in the Triumph, respectively Supreme. If you take P&C Doncaster form at face value then you'll think I'm wrong of course and we'll find out on the day but at least I gave an valid reason for why they should be massive lays at the prices.

Surely the fact that he has never beaten a top-class two-miler of anything like the quality of Jezki, TNO, or Hurricane Fly suggests the price is wrong? I think he is the likeliest winner but he looks too short to me.

If anyone wants to put up 2-1 Faugheen I'll absolutely smash it

he may prove to have been too short if he won't win, but at the moment are you willing to lay him? Especially as he looks the the likeliest winner. Or better are you willing to make him your biggest lay of the year ?

why would anyone put up 2/1 Faugheen when you can lay 2.4 for plenty, layers are in the charity business

arent*

"he may prove to have been too short if he won't win, but at the moment are you willing to lay him? Especially as he looks the the likeliest winner. Or better are you willing to make him your biggest lay of the year ?"

No need to get all defensive cause you think he isn't a lay. As the poster above said "Surely the fact that he has never beaten a top-class two-miler of anything like the quality of Jezki, TNO, or Hurricane Fly suggests the price is wrong?". Last years CH was fast and furious and the time was exceptional. Faugheen's hurdling will be tested like never before. IMO he is an excellent lay at current odds.

I would be amazed if bookie didn't take Faugheen on,so best to lay now while he is still an idiots price.

excellent lay ? you say that based on last year CH? in case you don't know Jezki's times were very similar with Faugheen sectionals from 4 out in which he also blundered at 1-2 hurdles and he had already covered 2 miles by that point. I'm not defensive, just think he isn't as big lay as some people without stating specific reasons make him out to be. He doesn't have to meet the best 3 from last year if his form this season is placing him at he head of hurdlers with all handicappers. There are many Faugheen layers out there and I wish them good luck I really am as they'll need it but calling him the biggest lay is a bit over the top.

Faugheen has only beaten Purple Bay so far, no-one better. His Neptune win has hardly worked out well, and he clouted a few on the way home. If he acts up at the start like he did last year he might not get away with it again. He's had no prep run, his days off course stats compared to previous Champion Hurdlers looks horrendous and you could argue that some of his wins this season fell into his lap.

As others have said, he's still (probably) the most likely winner but to be the price he is against proven horses at this level like TNO and Jezki is a complete joke. He might win but anyone lumping on at evens needs their head seeing to. Lay all day. Backing hype horses at short prices is the way to the Cheltenham poor house

"in case you don't know Jezki's times were very similar with Faugheen sectionals from 4 out in which he also blundered at 1-2 hurdles and he had already covered 2 miles by that point."

There is no race run in Cheltenham like the CH. Last year it was hell for leather from flag to post. I expect the same this year so this will be new territory for Faugheen. I'm currently looking at 1/1 with 4 of the top firms. It's ridiculous. imo. Good luck to you if you back him.

his times would indicate hes a good thing

timtin 24 Feb 15 09:41 Joined: 04 May 12

Personally when I lay a horse I try to give reasons for why I lay them which I did for P&C and Douvan, I don't leave it up in the air with `questions to answer` as the non-existent reason. If he has questions to answer than I'm sure you could write them here for people to either agree or disagree, speed, track, pace angle, form, trip, ground, etc etc. would be valid reasons for laying a short price favourite.

------------

marychain1 24 Feb 15 12:59 Joined: 05 Apr 05
Faugheen has only beaten Purple Bay so far, no-one better. His Neptune win has hardly worked out well, and he clouted a few on the way home. If he acts up at the start like he did last year he might not get away with it again. He's had no prep run, his days off course stats compared to previous Champion Hurdlers looks horrendous and you could argue that some of his wins this season fell into his lap.

As others have said, he's still (probably) the most likely winner but to be the price he is against proven horses at this level like TNO and Jezki is a complete joke. He might win but anyone lumping on at evens needs their head seeing to. Lay all day. Backing hype horses at short prices is the way to the Cheltenham poor house

----------

Happy now?

Faugheen has only beaten Purple Bay so far, no-one better

Beat Lieutenant Colonel 12 lengths in Neptune last year. Has went on to win a Grade 1 this season. He is better than Purple Bay.

Jezki the reigning Champion has went on and been beat 3 times by Faughen's stablemate Hurricane Fly. The fact that Walsh will ride Faugheen indicates they think they have Jezki covered. Same horse beat the New One in last season's race albeit probably fortunate to do so although as a backer of The New One I think he was outpaced and this year will definitely be shown to be.

The New One has had all these in runner up spots this season :

Bertimount 2l
Vaniteux 4l
Zamdy Man 2l
Hint Of Mint 2l

Faugheen would smash the arse out of all 4 of them without breaking sweat imo.

I thought Purple Bay was officially a better horse than Lieutenant Colonel?

How do you no the Fly wouldn't smash Faugheen at Leopardstown

Faugheen also beat Valseur Lido by roughly the same - 12 lengths - as what Vautour did in the Supreme over 2m. had Josses Hill 22 lengths back in a Bumper also. That can't be bad form either. Can only really beat what is put up to you and he hasn't been beaten yet so we don't know how good he is. Indeed, shortest winning margin is 3 lengths so hasn't scrambled home in any of his 8 races either.

How many Grade 1s has Purple Bay got?

I wouldn't know The Fly wouldn't smash Faugheen at Leopardstown. I am talking in terms of the Fly has beat the reigning Champion Hurdler 3 times out of 3 this season and the jockey on all 3 occasions is gonna jump ship to the stablemate. He must think that he has Jezki and the horse that beat Jezki covered.

Know he wouldn't, jasey - know way!

The Fly is invincible at that course

Of course he's going to jump ship when Jezki beat HF by 5l in last years CH. Jezki is clearly a better horse on better ground and wants a fast run race. He gets none of those conditions before March. Just look at his form last season pre-CH.

Whatever happens going to be a fantastic race to watch. Good luck.

And he will stay that way, jasey - because Willie won't run The Macgheen against him at Leopardstown - not ever, to be sure.

Maybe that's why Faugheen hasn't ran against him then...they wouldn't want the Fly's record broken at this late stage.

maelduin 24 Feb 15 13:27 Joined: 23 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 202 | Blogger: maelduin's blog
"in case you don't know Jezki's times were very similar with Faugheen sectionals from 4 out in which he also blundered at 1-2 hurdles and he had already covered 2 miles by that point."

There is no race run in Cheltenham like the CH. Last year it was hell for leather from flag to post. I expect the same this year so this will be new territory for Faugheen. I'm currently looking at 1/1 with 4 of the top firms. It's ridiculous. imo. Good luck to you if you back him.

Last year it was hell for leather from flag to post.

Not a chance will the pace be as frenetic as it was last year, none of them entered whom could possibly be in it as pace setters would be able to hold a candle to the pace in which captain cee bee can gallop at and which set up last year!! Only imo of course!

Jezki might do what he did at Punchestown

If Faugheen does what HE did at Punchestown, it won't matter what Jezki does, jasey

Yeh probably his best performance I agree.Jezki beat the cream that day,Macheen beat horses with no grade 1 wins

"Backing hype horses at short prices is the way to the Cheltenham poor house"

That depends on whether the hype is based on nothing but word of mouth or if the hype is based on form shown on track and the consistency displayed in the performances. Imagine this situation, TNO connections would not run scare of Faugheen on Boxing day, he meets TNO and beats him well, Faugheen price would've collapsed into 1/6 or shorter for the CH.

Now in the real world, Faugheen is the best hurdler around, Phil Smith confirmed so last week, Timeform said so time and time again, their ratings also tell the same story of Faugheen being the best around, however he's still evens or bigger because he didn't actually met his main CH rivals, not by choice but by design, Mullins loving Fly too much to get beat and NTD running scare of Faugheen for the Christmas Hurdle.

See, when you put things into perspective then the current price looks ok'ish. He's already priced 3/1 for next year CH and he might turn into a chaser or worse things could happen so evens for 2 weeks time to get and show his current form then he looks a decent bet, if he improves like he has continually done in his career then he'll look like a value bet. If he gets beat it won't matter anyways if you took 6/1 or 2/1 or evens as it would still be a loss.

For the record, whichever side of the fence you sit on, it's pretty offensive to state as though it is a black and white fact, that Faugheen didn't run at Leopardstown because they didn't want to get Hurricane Fly beaten. It made sense not to run there when there were targets both could win. For what it's worth, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hurricane had won around Leopardstown had Faugheen shown up.

Faugheen is being talked of as a wonder horse. I wonder what offers will be thrown out there in the coming 2 weeks. Chances of one or two of them seemingly too good to be true offers is sure to feature this horse!

Said it in January, said it again in Feb', saying it again now. If i don't see at least one bookie offering odds of at least 7/4 on this beast before off time I will be shocked!

You'll get at least that - but only to a few quid or to tempt in the new accounts. Loss leaders are common at the Festival - just look at 32reddies 3/1 for WPM to have any winner on day1

What is offensive about stating the obvious? I would say its pretty offensive to not allow horse racing fans to enjoy a horse at home when that horse is favourite for the CH. We love to see race horses compete, more so those good enough at highest levels, why did Mullins deprived us from what should be a natural path for Faugheen, it would've given him race fitness as well.

I'll tell you something else, the crowds would've doubled if Faugheen had been in the Irish CH, thats a fact, Mullins instead of supporting horse racing, he only pleases his owners and his own feelings. We don't live in France where horse racing is mostly done for rich owners. Why did he sent UDS to France last year? When he was asked he didn't had an answer so that is more offensive IMHO than to state that Fly would get beat by Faugheen.

timpani, crowds would not have doubled, that is a fact. Don't get me wrong, I'd have loved to have seen Faugheen take on Fly and co but to say Mullins only pleases his owners and his own feelings is a bit silly. Why wouldn't he? Those are the two people you need to look out for as a professional trainer!

You seem to have this argumentative air about everything you write on here - people respond to your questions and you just argue a different angle again. My point is you don't know for sure that Faugheen skipped Leopardstown to allow Fly an easy race, and you certainly don't know whether he would even have beaten him.

People keep giving you reasons from the form book as to why they think the current price on Faugheen is too short, but you seem to be taking it as a personal offence that people would dare disagree with you. If you are so sure all of us 'value doubters' are wrong, why not just smash into Faugheen at 5/4 and be happy with your bet.

For what it's worth, on a more important note, I think SeaTheStars is right - we'll see at least 7/4 at some point from someone - probably more. It might not be for big bucks but it would be useful for a lot of people.

Think the likes of billys/lads one of the major outfits with plenty of shops will offer a too good to be true offer on him and to decent money too, maybe a max £25 bet, maybe a liability bet of say £100 per person at 2/1, so your allowed £33.33 on for a 15 minute period i don't know. But am sure there will be one.

So take yer evs/5/4 all use like. There is a reason why in their own race Stans and James have been the shortest since Xmas. Just saying. It is only an opinion, well more a feeling than an opinion really.

£50 on at 2/1 I can't count ok

Last years sectional in case anyone wishes to check through them.


http://www.turftrax.co.uk/tracking.asp?t=cheltenhamfestival2014

"Not a chance will the pace be as frenetic as it was last year, none of them entered whom could possibly be in it as pace setters would be able to hold a candle to the pace in which captain cee bee can gallop at and which set up last year!! Only imo of course!"

Plinth pacemaker with Kitten Rock sitting behind ready to take it up when he falters. You can bet your life JP won't allow this to be a slow run muddling affair.

NTD running scare of Faugheen for the Christmas Hurdle.


Timtin, with respect that cannot be proved and could well be complete rubbish.
I happen to think it is complete rubbish,but I cannot prove it either.

What I do know is that TNO had already ran at Haydock in the new race and Cheltenham a couple of weeks before Kempton in a more valuable race.I don't think he needed to have another run before the new year. Sensible training imo.

As for questions to answer.....hes never run against a top class Champion Hurdler,simple as that.
Not really sure why you keep arguing to be honest,guess you must enjoy it.

"crowds would not have doubled, that is a fact"
Why is it a fact ?

"Why wouldn't he? Those are the two people you need to look out for as a professional trainer!"
Well it depends on what side you're looking from. It seems you take owners side. From racing fans perspective to keep horses apart(or keep one at home playing with the cat's stable) instead of running them in the best races is a bigger offense to the sport than to suggest Faugheen would beat Fly(like you accused me of)
Without racing fans, the industry would collapse and there would be no trainers. Everyone interests must be kept if we still want to have horse racing tomorrow.


"people respond to your questions and you just argue a different angle again."
It seems the exact opposite, I only responded to specific issues, while others contradicted me with non-representative stats. For example @maelduin used last year CH pace which was `fast and exceptional` as a measure of Faugheen's lack of proper testing, while I responded to him and said the times that Faugheen posted in the Neptune were similar to what Jezki achieved from 4 out, and Faugheen had also crashed into 2 hurdles and had already ran 2 miles by that time;

Then @marychain1 started to pick off Neptune form which no one uses to bet on him unless you're wondering if he'll handle the track, however that form is useless even though it had group horses in behind and some 2-3 smart prospects (Red Sherlock, Ballyalton, Rathvinden) who haven't ran since. Is useless because those that tried to stay with his speed started to drop off like flies in the home straight while those who were kept in rear finished 2-3-4th placed.

@marychain1 did use "no prep run" which is true and I've done extensive analysis on in the other thread which indeed shortens the chances of those horses without prep run. ROR appears as a stat breaker in there but in fact he had an unofficial prep run 2 weeks before the 2012 CH.


"People keep giving you reasons from the form book as to why they think the current price on Faugheen is too short"
And the reasons are? Looking at all handicappers who are experts in studying form Faugheen is at the head of ratings table. The fact that he hasn't met the other 3 if anything it gives more value to his current price, otherwise he would've been trading at unbackable odds.


"we'll see at least 7/4 at some point from someone - probably more"
Even if you're right, the exchanges will have the same price regardless of these offers so what is your advice for those laying Faugheen? Lay now or wait for the day? IMHO you should wait till the day to lay him when he's going shorten to 8/11 if Ruby will choose to ride him.


"with respect that cannot be proved and could well be complete rubbish"
Ok I agree that argument is complete rubbish, if so what is the real reason? Running in the Christmas Hurdle on Boxing day is FAR more prestigious than the Bula or other newly created event. Why choose money over fame? Unless you think that fame would be harder to achieve against Faugheen?


"Not really sure why you keep arguing to be honest,guess you must enjoy it."
Its only 2 weeks till the Festival, if you don't argue now, then when?

Fair enough.

I don't know reason he never ran at Kempton.
I think it likely though that he would rather run at Cheltenham than Kempton,the track suits him better imo,and as I said its also a more valuable race,i suspect the Cheltenham factor is the main reason.
He also ran at Haydock.
Imo they had his season mapped out with the Festival in mind right from the start and they decided Haydock and Cheltenham as the 2 races they wanted before the new year.
I dunno, maybe NTD and WM had a chat on the phone and decided to give each other the races...who knows?

Also don't forget he had his reappearance in October as well.
To have 4 runs before the new year would be quiet a lot imo.

Jeez timtim, don't take it so personally! A few people have only questioned his form.

Quite a lot have had a go at Conti because of his festival record and I'm a massive fan of his, and backed him big (for me). But I still respect their opinions and don't spit my dummy out when anyone questions him.

I really really believe Faugheen's sp will be 2-1 minimum.

Ok I agree that argument is complete rubbish, if so what is the real reason? Running in the Christmas Hurdle on Boxing day is FAR more prestigious than the Bula or other newly created event. Why choose money over fame? Unless you think that fame would be harder to achieve against Faugheen?


I can't have that to be honest, you might well choose money over fame if you were not a super rich owner or a trainer with an embarrassment of riches - NTD got a business to run, very shrewd at placing his horses to give them maximum opportunity to pick up decent win prize money in races where they have the best chance.

I think the way TNO has been campaigned is completely understandable - no different to Mullins sending Faugheen to Kempton to avoid taking on Jezki and Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown.

For the record, I think Faugheen will win possibly in spectacular style and would n't want to be taking him on at this stage.

Douvan is an entirely different proposition...