timtin - what price are you laying Faugheen at, please?

Budd, he has always been short priced favourite and there were always some punters willing to stick their money for other horses in his races thinking they `actually have a chance of winning` so in that sense he always had questions to answer. The problem is that he always answered those questions and in style of a champion so the only question or goal left to achieve is to win that title officially. Some people are making him the biggest lay of the year so in this case I can only wish them good luck as they'll need it in abundance.

Personally when I lay a horse I try to give reasons for why I lay them which I did for P&C and Douvan, I don't leave it up in the air with `questions to answer` as the non-existent reason. If he has questions to answer than I'm sure you could write them here for people to either agree or disagree, speed, track, pace angle, form, trip, ground, etc etc. would be valid reasons for laying a short price favourite. P&C for me its his form, Douvan his form and ground, they shouldn't be so low especially in such competitive fields in the Triumph, respectively Supreme. If you take P&C Doncaster form at face value then you'll think I'm wrong of course and we'll find out on the day but at least I gave an valid reason for why they should be massive lays at the prices.

If anyone wants to put up 2-1 Faugheen I'll absolutely smash it

why would anyone put up 2/1 Faugheen when you can lay 2.4 for plenty, layers are in the charity business

"he may prove to have been too short if he won't win, but at the moment are you willing to lay him? Especially as he looks the the likeliest winner. Or better are you willing to make him your biggest lay of the year ?"

No need to get all defensive cause you think he isn't a lay. As the poster above said "Surely the fact that he has never beaten a top-class two-miler of anything like the quality of Jezki, TNO, or Hurricane Fly suggests the price is wrong?". Last years CH was fast and furious and the time was exceptional. Faugheen's hurdling will be tested like never before. IMO he is an excellent lay at current odds.

excellent lay ? you say that based on last year CH? in case you don't know Jezki's times were very similar with Faugheen sectionals from 4 out in which he also blundered at 1-2 hurdles and he had already covered 2 miles by that point. I'm not defensive, just think he isn't as big lay as some people without stating specific reasons make him out to be. He doesn't have to meet the best 3 from last year if his form this season is placing him at he head of hurdlers with all handicappers. There are many Faugheen layers out there and I wish them good luck I really am as they'll need it but calling him the biggest lay is a bit over the top.

"in case you don't know Jezki's times were very similar with Faugheen sectionals from 4 out in which he also blundered at 1-2 hurdles and he had already covered 2 miles by that point."

There is no race run in Cheltenham like the CH. Last year it was hell for leather from flag to post. I expect the same this year so this will be new territory for Faugheen. I'm currently looking at 1/1 with 4 of the top firms. It's ridiculous. imo. Good luck to you if you back him.

timtin 24 Feb 15 09:41 Joined: 04 May 12

Personally when I lay a horse I try to give reasons for why I lay them which I did for P&C and Douvan, I don't leave it up in the air with `questions to answer` as the non-existent reason. If he has questions to answer than I'm sure you could write them here for people to either agree or disagree, speed, track, pace angle, form, trip, ground, etc etc. would be valid reasons for laying a short price favourite.

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marychain1 24 Feb 15 12:59 Joined: 05 Apr 05
Faugheen has only beaten Purple Bay so far, no-one better. His Neptune win has hardly worked out well, and he clouted a few on the way home. If he acts up at the start like he did last year he might not get away with it again. He's had no prep run, his days off course stats compared to previous Champion Hurdlers looks horrendous and you could argue that some of his wins this season fell into his lap.

As others have said, he's still (probably) the most likely winner but to be the price he is against proven horses at this level like TNO and Jezki is a complete joke. He might win but anyone lumping on at evens needs their head seeing to. Lay all day. Backing hype horses at short prices is the way to the Cheltenham poor house

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Happy now?

I thought Purple Bay was officially a better horse than Lieutenant Colonel?

Faugheen also beat Valseur Lido by roughly the same - 12 lengths - as what Vautour did in the Supreme over 2m. had Josses Hill 22 lengths back in a Bumper also. That can't be bad form either. Can only really beat what is put up to you and he hasn't been beaten yet so we don't know how good he is. Indeed, shortest winning margin is 3 lengths so hasn't scrambled home in any of his 8 races either.

I wouldn't know The Fly wouldn't smash Faugheen at Leopardstown. I am talking in terms of the Fly has beat the reigning Champion Hurdler 3 times out of 3 this season and the jockey on all 3 occasions is gonna jump ship to the stablemate. He must think that he has Jezki and the horse that beat Jezki covered.

The Fly is invincible at that course

And he will stay that way, jasey - because Willie won't run The Macgheen against him at Leopardstown - not ever, to be sure.

maelduin 24 Feb 15 13:27 Joined: 23 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 202 | Blogger: maelduin's blog
"in case you don't know Jezki's times were very similar with Faugheen sectionals from 4 out in which he also blundered at 1-2 hurdles and he had already covered 2 miles by that point."

There is no race run in Cheltenham like the CH. Last year it was hell for leather from flag to post. I expect the same this year so this will be new territory for Faugheen. I'm currently looking at 1/1 with 4 of the top firms. It's ridiculous. imo. Good luck to you if you back him.

Last year it was hell for leather from flag to post.

Not a chance will the pace be as frenetic as it was last year, none of them entered whom could possibly be in it as pace setters would be able to hold a candle to the pace in which captain cee bee can gallop at and which set up last year!! Only imo of course!

If Faugheen does what HE did at Punchestown, it won't matter what Jezki does, jasey

"Backing hype horses at short prices is the way to the Cheltenham poor house"

That depends on whether the hype is based on nothing but word of mouth or if the hype is based on form shown on track and the consistency displayed in the performances. Imagine this situation, TNO connections would not run scare of Faugheen on Boxing day, he meets TNO and beats him well, Faugheen price would've collapsed into 1/6 or shorter for the CH.

Now in the real world, Faugheen is the best hurdler around, Phil Smith confirmed so last week, Timeform said so time and time again, their ratings also tell the same story of Faugheen being the best around, however he's still evens or bigger because he didn't actually met his main CH rivals, not by choice but by design, Mullins loving Fly too much to get beat and NTD running scare of Faugheen for the Christmas Hurdle.

See, when you put things into perspective then the current price looks ok'ish. He's already priced 3/1 for next year CH and he might turn into a chaser or worse things could happen so evens for 2 weeks time to get and show his current form then he looks a decent bet, if he improves like he has continually done in his career then he'll look like a value bet. If he gets beat it won't matter anyways if you took 6/1 or 2/1 or evens as it would still be a loss.

Faugheen is being talked of as a wonder horse. I wonder what offers will be thrown out there in the coming 2 weeks. Chances of one or two of them seemingly too good to be true offers is sure to feature this horse!

Said it in January, said it again in Feb', saying it again now. If i don't see at least one bookie offering odds of at least 7/4 on this beast before off time I will be shocked!

What is offensive about stating the obvious? I would say its pretty offensive to not allow horse racing fans to enjoy a horse at home when that horse is favourite for the CH. We love to see race horses compete, more so those good enough at highest levels, why did Mullins deprived us from what should be a natural path for Faugheen, it would've given him race fitness as well.

timpani, crowds would not have doubled, that is a fact. Don't get me wrong, I'd have loved to have seen Faugheen take on Fly and co but to say Mullins only pleases his owners and his own feelings is a bit silly. Why wouldn't he? Those are the two people you need to look out for as a professional trainer!

You seem to have this argumentative air about everything you write on here - people respond to your questions and you just argue a different angle again. My point is you don't know for sure that Faugheen skipped Leopardstown to allow Fly an easy race, and you certainly don't know whether he would even have beaten him.

People keep giving you reasons from the form book as to why they think the current price on Faugheen is too short, but you seem to be taking it as a personal offence that people would dare disagree with you. If you are so sure all of us 'value doubters' are wrong, why not just smash into Faugheen at 5/4 and be happy with your bet.

For what it's worth, on a more important note, I think SeaTheStars is right - we'll see at least 7/4 at some point from someone - probably more. It might not be for big bucks but it would be useful for a lot of people.

£50 on at 2/1 I can't count ok