Cheltenham Festival
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Taquin Du Seuil
Taquin Du Seuil
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Jonjo quoted in RP this morning saying: 'TDS is 154 now so a handicap may look inviting'.
Not saying he won't run in Ryanair but possible reason for any drift? |
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^ should add he also said horse had come back OK from Denman Chase...
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I'm not quick to believe what he says
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Is anyone??
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I think some folk would when the comment has that sort of content.
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was just trying to help by relaying what he said, don't really have a view on the veracity or his motives, I don't need to have one at this stage.
If you don't believe anything he says, then you're entitled to interpret his remarks as an indication that the horse is not OK and will be conspicuous by his absence when the handicap entries are revealed.  My own view is that he's down to 154 because he's run disappointingly four times after which a variety of excuses/reasons have been peddled: ground, trip, trainer form. I was impressed with his JLT win at the time but the runners in that race have mustered 6 wins from 39 attempts between them since, don't know the stats but 15% strike rate out of a Grade 1 Festival race does n't sound great to me. |
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thanks Reeseheath. I think those comments (of Jonjo) would do it
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You'd have to take a view that he would stay 3 miles or 3m 1 in handicap company, because 2m 5f is his trip. No i don't think he will show up for one of those races.
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The Byrne Group Plate (as was) is 2m 5f so he could run in that - pointless trying to second guess him but perhaps he fancies John's Spirit more for Ryanair - I think TDS will end up in Ryanair but would n't totally discount the Byrne race (yep,would be a strange choice for winner of Festival Grade 1 Novice chase).
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More chance of him going for the rabbie burns haggis plate on st andrews day. If he's well there's only one race. Jonjo is at it with that comment.
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I'd be really surprised if he does anything in any race this year; he just looks a shadow of himself. Jonjo is of course a master (or whatever you want to call him) when it comes to targeting this meeting, but not all of his horses win and this one just looks like he's in no place to compete at Cheltenham right now.
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Couldn't resist having a few quid on him.
Not sure why he's being run at these longer trips but who can ever read Jonjo...TdS always looked best around the Ryanair trip. We know he likes it around Cheltenham as well, would have preferred a more encouraging performance lto but wasn't to, will put that down to the distance. 16/17-1 could prove a very big price. |
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Will run in Ryanair and likely to sport headgear of some kind.
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On form this year wouldn't have much chance but can't help think this horse might have a bit of Albertas run about him suddenly turning up and running a blinder! See a few horses do it, run pretty badly most of the year then come alive at chelts not saying he definitely will but I couldn't resist a we dabble to win @ 18's and slightly bigger amount just to place @ 6.5
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The owner was interviewed and said TDS's blood has not been right this season. Would not touch him with counterfeit tbh.
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How can they run him at Cheltenham
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He'll take the world of beating in the ryanair - Jonjo will upset lots of you over the 4 days. I think the forum will be up in arms when TDS goes in. He will be right on the day. Ask not - 'how can they run him at Cheltenham?' but ask why is he as short as 10-1 in places? The answer is because the bookies have taken some lumpy bets from some proper people and don't want to be shafted by another Jonjo plot. He is apparently very well, likely to wear some sort of headgear and be ridden by APMcCoy. He'll look a very different horse to the slogged around over 3 miles last time.
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Yeah, right.
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If TDS or MOT win at the festival,so be it,won't be having my money on them.
I ain't backing horses with sh1te preps just cos of the trainer. |
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I can't recall all of the Jonjo winners from past festivals (so forgive me if I am wrong) but my recollection from the past few years is that his winners in graded races have had good preps (MOT unbeaten last year, Synchronised winning a graded pre festival, Hennessy or Lexus I don't recall, TDS running pretty well before JLT win) and its only the handicappers (Alfie Sherrin, Holywell etc) who have gone into the festival in poor form only to miraculously turn it round in festival week.
On this basis, whilst you'd be mad to ignore a Jonjo horse in a handicap who appears woefully out of form, you'd be equally mad to back one of his in a graded race who was similarly out of form (there is simply no good reason why a horse aimed at a graded race would have a deliberately bad prep and it takes a leap of faith to imagine Jonjo will have them all right in just a few weeks). |
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Spot on MArvinho. MOT is slightly different as he has had one run, ran poorly, put away for a breathing operation and could now reappear at the festival. If he were to win it would not be the biggest shock in the world. TDS on the other hand has ran a couple of poor races and one deplorable one. Forget what he did last season until he shows some signs of life.
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For what's it worth I agree with Marvinho, don't think the poor showings have been planned by Jonjo it would make no sense to.
But I don't think the increase in trip has ever looked like suiting him and I'm willing to take that as the reason (at these odds) for the poor showings. |
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Agreed. The problem will breathing operations is you'll only know if its done the trick after the world hurdle (though connections may have a better idea based on home work so the market may assist). Given he'll be ridden by the retiring AP, and with the lack of real breakthrough contenders in the 3m hurdle division (none of the novices from last year have progressed - the opposite in fact!) I suspect that he'll be short enough on the day and it won't be a race to get heavily involved in.
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I don't think TDS's Denman run was a poor showing, just looked a non-stayer to me. I'll be keeping him onside in The Ryanair.
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Will Jonjo run both in Ryanair ?
154 is a decent rating I would be wary of backing TDS in Ryanair unless it is NRNB. |
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Assuming both rich mc stays on johns spirit, and if so ap i'd think would want one last shot at the ryanair, it's highly unlikely to me anyway that they would aim tds at a handicap race.
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not quite as strident as your earlier assertion on the issue, Graeme.
 For what it's worth, he's generally quite a bit shorter for the handicap than he is for the Ryanair so if you think he'll run in the Ryanair NRNB will be a gift... |
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 i'm not budging on my opinion. Nice try rease, but i can say with confidence, that if tds is fit, there is only one race, and it's certainly not a handicap race. |
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Johns Spirit rated 160 can't go in a handicap really. TDS on 154 the only other Jonjo entry who may get a run is Lost Legend on 141 possibly won't get a run though.Festive Affair on 130 has no hope of a run imo. I have backed TDS in Ryanair and sadly I feel I've done my dough.
Segal tipped up Johns Spirit. Ladbrokes are also top price TDS for Ryanair. I hope I am wrong but realistically AP could ride TDS in Plate and JS in Ryanair. |
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Johns Spirit is Mclernons ride.
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Yes stevo - richie on Johns and AP on TDS is the current plan isn't it?
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If Uxizandre rocks up here then AP would ride him wouldn't he? Geraghty on Ma Filleulle, so who rides TDS then?
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Not sure Uxizandre is gonna rock up - that would be a tough call for JP. Famously let AP off Uxi to ride TDS in the JLT last year, only for AP to nail his horse up the run in.
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Now that Mr Mole has emerged as a serious contender for the QM you would think Uxizandre would head to the Ryanair. Could be up to JP to let him off again.
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I wouldn't fancy anything from last years JLT.
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....although I have backed Wonderful Charm for the Ryanair
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Sounds like Uxizandre for the Ryanair according to King and Taquin De Seuil for the Plate as O'Neil says he is tempted by his Hcp mark.
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Reckon it will come as a bit of a surprise to the owners if TDS ends up in the Plate. Still, Jonjo said it so it must be true. To be fair, I'm sure he is 'tempted' - but handicapping has never been the plan with this horse.
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can't be that much of a surprise given he mooted the possibility in the Racing Post over a week ago...
possibility is the key word obviously. |