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Cheltenham Festival
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These 195 comments are related to the topic:
Valseur Lido & Don Poli
Valseur Lido & Don Poli
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"have gone very close in an average CH last year." really ?? average ?? last year ?? then what do you call the previous 3 years renewals ?
"UDS and Vautour are virtually unbeatable" really ? so much hype ? "people who say AP and UDS would have won the Ch H last year are talking rubbish" talking rubbish ? how do you know they wouldn't have won ? why did WM sent UDS to France and AP to a wrong trip ? Probably as he wanted to give Fly his third win, like he has done in Irish CH where the competition is not that fierce and it works. This year Ricci is taking no more bullshit, well at least with Faugheen plans... |
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Yep they were worse. I don't think it was a great CH last year...Just my view. And I think UDS could have given them plenty to think about.
Yes there is a lot of hype... Exactly why he did it. Doesn't disprove the point I have made though does it? |
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We might have a better idea of the likely outcome after Sunday. Valseur Lido is the horse that Cooper said he was most looking forward to riding in his pre-Xmas podcast. I'm not sure where the notion that he's a stayer comes from. Campaigned exclusively over 2 miles as a novice hurdler and 2 races over fences at 2 and a half. He was also left in the Irish Arkle at the 5 day stage, presumably as a back up if something went wrong with Clarcam.
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Totally agree with Cant Catch Me re obvious choice,im sure Cooper wants to ride as many winners as Ruby. Not so sure re Vautour comments even though am one of his biggest admirers,wouldnt back him at 5/2 against VL in JLT and Ptit Zig.
Hopefully after weekend will all be as clear as mud? |
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Just to clarify, Im not saying I think Vautour is unbeatable.
Im saying its not inconceivable that WPM will have a conversation with his owners and tell Gigginstown that he cant see how VL could beat Vautour in the JLT. |
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ff. Im convinced VL will fulfil his potential when upped in trip.
Yes he was campaigned over 2m as a novice, but maybe that was wrong? He was run off his feet and readily outpaced in the Supreme... Then hugely outspeeded by Faugheen at Punch. He obviously won a few races over 2m, but didnt beat much if truth be told, and because he is clearly very useful, those wins dont prove him a 2 miler to me. |
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CCM, VL's DI is 3.00. I know it's not an exact science but all RSA winners (and GOld Cup winners) have a DI no higher then 1.0 and a CD in the negative range. Not encouraging at all. I just hope they don't attempt to find out at the expense of Don Poli.
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Interesting c&e.
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I don't think for a minute that VL is an Arkle horse CCM. He hasn't been campaigned like a stayer though. Other than UDS, I think he has the best form of any novice chaser in Ireland this season thus far ( better than Vautour has in the book) though I appreciate he hasn't run for a while. Ruby won't be happy if VL pitches up in the JLT but Gigginstown couldn't give flying fook about him!
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Interesting point re VL's dosage and centre of distribution metrics. To add to that though, Don Poli's - though not as high - are still a good bit higher (more speed-laden) than your typical RSA winner.
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Cuf, sounded to me like you we're wanting UDS not to run at the festival and that you wanted Vautour in the Arkle.Peronally i think anyone who dont want such an exciting horse running at the festival is thinking about money and not the sport.I apologise if i have you wrong mate.
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Valseur Lido looks to me like one of those in between horses.
Races around the 2 and halfm distances is where we will be seeing him imo. JLT this year and then Ryanair the following years,if hes up to it. I think he is. The horse I like for the JLT....Apache Stronghold, is another inbetweener I think,can see those 2 being in the same sort of races over the next few years. |
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Regarding the DI issue for VL - I believe that this is only based on 4 dosage points and someone far wiser than I once told me to be wary of the score for any horse with less than 8 dosage points. I think it's down to there being a lack of representation of influential sires in the line.
Essentially, it could be correct or as many of the sires in the line are not 'influential', it may be way out. Don poli is more clear cut - he DOES NOT fit the RSA dosage trend. Now interestingly, he does for the NH. This is bizarre seeing as it is over longer but my line of thought is that they probably go a far steadier pace in that race due to the lower quality of horses and fact that it's amateurs on board. The RSA is probably more of a relentless stamina test |
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It's bizarre because it's such a crude out dated way of approaching race analysis Tory. You seem rather blinkered by your unbreakable dosage points system. There's a reason it's pretty much never brought up in relation to Jumps racing in any form. If it was of key importance more people would use it and refer to it.
It would be interesting if you'd list the horses and the races they can't win prior to Cheltenham so it can be viewed post the festival to see how definitive it is. I am always wary of the "can't win" brigade, it's always far far safer saying a horse can't win a race as almost all horses will most likely lose the race it runs in unless it's odds on. I much prefer people giving opinions of horses, races etc.. than hiding behind a "system" or something similar. But of course if it works for you I'm sure you should stick with it. Many ways to skin a cat or pick a winner as they say. |
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Wounded Warrior has shortened up a bit for the NH Chase today.
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I've never said a horse can't win and I've never used dosage before this year so let's see how it goes.
I have however used stats and trends for the past 4yrs at cheltenham and have made a good profit by doing so - it's the way I like to do things. I'm simply looking to incorporate the dosage elements into my spreadsheets this year. Some races they will be way off and others they will be spot on. Over 27 races however I'm normally well up. |
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Sorry, it was just the big caps on DOES NOT always comes across as shouting and utterly definitive when one reads it. Doasge is incredibly crude and belongs not only to different code, but to an era where information was scarce, people relied upon printed formbooks, no computer technology. It's fundamental basis that only traits inherited by sires count and that horses are either fast or slow not both is just beyond crude. It's origins are 40 or 50 years old.
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He needs Soft ground that's why CCM. Nowhere near as effective on Good.
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Can't Catch Me 04 Feb 15 10:30 Joined: 02 Apr 03 | Topic/replies: 19,110 | Blogger: Can't Catch Me's blog
ff. Im convinced VL will fulfil his potential when upped in trip. Yes he was campaigned over 2m as a novice, but maybe that was wrong? He was run off his feet and readily outpaced in the Supreme... Then hugely outspeeded by Faugheen at Punch. He obviously won a few races over 2m, but didnt beat much if truth be told, and because he is clearly very useful, those wins dont prove him a 2 miler to me. He needs Soft ground that's why CCM. Nowhere near as effective on Good. |
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I believe that this is only based on 4 dosage points and someone far wiser than I once told me to be wary of the score for any horse with less than 8 dosage points. I think it's down to there being a lack of representation of influential sires in the line.
think its 4 generations mate and the sires (chefs) are dived into 5 categories. |
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I only put caps on to reiterate the points which were being made in above posts - that both VL and DP are out of sync. I'd argued why the VL one should be treated with a great deal of caution but that in terms of dosage for DP, his figure is more than likely correct as he is over 8 dosage points.
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Valseur Lido confirmed for Sunday in a race that Mullins uses for his RSA horses. Very interesting.
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Yes, WM uses it for his RSA horses, but equally, what is the alternative at 3 miles in Ireland that fits the programme as well as this ? cant think of one myself.
He'll also be mindful that Ballycasey won this snugly last year but didn't get home in the RSA. |
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I don't confess to know the Irish racing programme that well, but it will be interesting to see if he's got something in mind for Don Poli before Cheltenham.
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I think no RSA winner has not had a prep in the new year (in recent times anyway). That seemed to scupper last years Topaz winner's chances and it was also a big negative against Time For Rupert.
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Rath while not denying the importance of a prep run I believe both Ballycasey and TFR just werent good enough anyway.
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Rath while not denying the importance of a prep run I believe both Ballycasey and TFR just werent good enough anyway.
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I was referring to the Topaz winner not running from last year(forget his name), not Bally. Cant argue re TFR with hindsight but he was a bit of a banker for many leading into it.
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"This year Ricci is taking no more bullshit, well at least with Faugheen plans... "
Yeah i heard Ricci has been targeting the Grade 2 Red Mills in Gowran all season.  |
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We know what happened to last years Red Mills winner !
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Carlingford Lough won the Topaz last season, also ran in this weeks corresponding race Rath.
You may mean Morning Assembly the runner up in the Topaz? |
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Ah, double memory loss ! Cheers, I was all over MA and couldn't believe he lost the Topaz the way he was travelling. One of those results just like Champagne Fever in the Arkle where if you watch it again you think the result may change
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Don Poli is too classy to run in the NH Chase - must be the RSA - won a classy Grade 1 - NH for slow plodders.
Valseur Lido has had JLT written all over him for a long time. O'Leary will tell Mullins what to do irrespective of where other owners horses from same stable run.. |
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The RSA slog will prove too much for VL.
UDS has comfortably the biggest engine in jump racing and could win any rave up to 20f that Mullins/Ricci choose. |
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yes and yes.
Me mate even thinks UDS could win over 3m, reckons he would be so far ahead of a staying field,he could win walking the last furlong or 2 |
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Looks like The JLT & RSA after today for these two.
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Not sure which threads it was on but i've been saying all season VL will get beaten by Good ground horses in March. He is far better on Soft.
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Is WPM planning on running Don Poli again before March?
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A fair question sint, to which Michael O'Leary would probably like the answer....
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Ten Up Grade 2 novice chase at Navan next sunday possibly?
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