Cheltenham Festival
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Two horses I've never warmed to or like for whatever reason. The New One and Silvianaco Conti. I have to just accept I got them wrong, I opposed them as I believe their prices over estimated their chance at Cheltenham last season. They both got beat but I feel they both have big excuses. Obviously the New One was badly hampered early by Our Conor, while Sil Conti wandered badly on the run in, he seems a bit soft but when he had the cheek pieces applied he looked a different horse. While for me in the Bula TNO was awesome, it was professional as hell performance from him.
Faugheen, he looks amazing, I know he beat little in the Christmas Hurdle but he won it well 6 seconds quicker than Jollyallen (a £250k purchase by JP out of Frys yard) which is impressive. But for whatever reason I feel he's stayed over hurdles because of how many horses Mullins & Ricci had to go chasing. I just haven't seen him beat top class rivals. I remember people knocked Fly for "winning slow race in mud in Ireland" but he was beating Solwhit a 6 time grade 1 winner at the time, Thousand Stars a multiple grade 1 winner himself always back in 3rd. Sometimes you need to beat class horses to show you're good.
The New One has beaten some quality horses and his form at Cheltenham is superb. I don't think he likes the flat out 2m4f of the Aintree Hurdle, but feel he'll relish tracking Faugheen all the way round Cheltenham. I just think he has a turn of foot Faugheen may not have at the proper top level in Champion Hurdle, the turn of foot his price assumes he has. I think My Tent or Yours would have posted a huge performance in that Christmas Hurdle, very fast early pace and then Faugheen to take him all the way to the last hurdle, keenness would be no problem at that pace. Then we've got Jezki who need a monster end to end pace to be seen at his best, they will have 2 pace makers again in the Champion for him.
But all this just sets it up for The New One I feel, he has the ability to quicken and then hold on. The same way Fly beat Jezki the other day, he could quicken to get to the lead and then doesn't tire before the line. I think that small burst of speed when asked will be telling. Obviously Hurricane Fly won't be able to use that speed at Cheltenham as he's too old now and he has never liked the track, not to mention he'll have no Ruby Walsh on his back.
So we're left with the 3 principles. Faugheen too short, Jezki in with solid e/w chance but his Champion Hurdle win came when Our Conor died, TNO was hampered, Fly didn't run to form and MTOY was absurdly keen yet still battled it out. TNO might be a decent enough price on the day and there is sure to be sentiment on Fly if he wins again next month. If 4/1 was offered on the day I'd be biting their hands off on an e/w to nothing bet there.
Then we've Conti. He cost me £485 in the King George when I utterly stupidly decided to lay the horse, each way !!! He causes contributed to biggest single day loss of money I've ever had. Lessons learned. To be honest, it really was a stupid bet as the evidence was there from the Betfair Chase he'd never be let get outpaced ever again, he'd be up there to force the pace if required. Why I felt he'd be mid division and outpaced down the back the same way Long Run was by Kauto in 2011. That was my big error.
But what Conti showed was when he's forced to focus and kept to work he jumps superb, he has huge reserves of stamina and he's a serious horses. From the evidence, I think he had every chance to win the Gold Cup in 2013 as Long Run and Sir Des Champs ran eachother into the ground at the front he might well have stayed on as well as Bobs Worth in his favoured ground and won. If's and buts. There is also the question, does he prefer flatter tracks where he can get into a rhythm in his jumping. These usually are just things to pick upon to convince yourself a horse won't win tbh. Like Kauto doesn't stay the Gold Cup trip, or he doesn't like Cheltenham was the way to oppose him in 2009.
Bottom line is Conti posted the best staying performance of the season so far in the King George, he did smash them. Nicholls reported he normally puts a lot into his race, yet he seemed fine and fresh after his win. He also mentioed he wasn't finishing off races as well last season, which seems true as 3/4 race he really didn't power away like he did on his previous two starts this season. We could also put down the King George win to Cue Card emptying more tha Conti powering home. Remember Kauto never finished off races in his penultimate season yet came back to power home in a Betfair and King George.
The point I'm making is judge a horse on his current season form more than past seasons. Look at Road to Riches for an example of that. Trainers change things and learn from mistakes, well the best do. Conti has looked superb this season and he's got a huge chance in March. Had he had the cheek pieces on, he wouldn't have wandered last season and he'd have won you feel.
I haven't a cent on either TNO or Conti. I haven't much at all in either race, but they're very much on my mind. Why maintain you were right about a horse not being good enough when the evidence shows you're most likely wrong? Better admit you were wrong and take them seriously.
Faugheen, he looks amazing, I know he beat little in the Christmas Hurdle but he won it well 6 seconds quicker than Jollyallen (a £250k purchase by JP out of Frys yard) which is impressive. But for whatever reason I feel he's stayed over hurdles because of how many horses Mullins & Ricci had to go chasing. I just haven't seen him beat top class rivals. I remember people knocked Fly for "winning slow race in mud in Ireland" but he was beating Solwhit a 6 time grade 1 winner at the time, Thousand Stars a multiple grade 1 winner himself always back in 3rd. Sometimes you need to beat class horses to show you're good.
The New One has beaten some quality horses and his form at Cheltenham is superb. I don't think he likes the flat out 2m4f of the Aintree Hurdle, but feel he'll relish tracking Faugheen all the way round Cheltenham. I just think he has a turn of foot Faugheen may not have at the proper top level in Champion Hurdle, the turn of foot his price assumes he has. I think My Tent or Yours would have posted a huge performance in that Christmas Hurdle, very fast early pace and then Faugheen to take him all the way to the last hurdle, keenness would be no problem at that pace. Then we've got Jezki who need a monster end to end pace to be seen at his best, they will have 2 pace makers again in the Champion for him.
But all this just sets it up for The New One I feel, he has the ability to quicken and then hold on. The same way Fly beat Jezki the other day, he could quicken to get to the lead and then doesn't tire before the line. I think that small burst of speed when asked will be telling. Obviously Hurricane Fly won't be able to use that speed at Cheltenham as he's too old now and he has never liked the track, not to mention he'll have no Ruby Walsh on his back.
So we're left with the 3 principles. Faugheen too short, Jezki in with solid e/w chance but his Champion Hurdle win came when Our Conor died, TNO was hampered, Fly didn't run to form and MTOY was absurdly keen yet still battled it out. TNO might be a decent enough price on the day and there is sure to be sentiment on Fly if he wins again next month. If 4/1 was offered on the day I'd be biting their hands off on an e/w to nothing bet there.
Then we've Conti. He cost me £485 in the King George when I utterly stupidly decided to lay the horse, each way !!! He causes contributed to biggest single day loss of money I've ever had. Lessons learned. To be honest, it really was a stupid bet as the evidence was there from the Betfair Chase he'd never be let get outpaced ever again, he'd be up there to force the pace if required. Why I felt he'd be mid division and outpaced down the back the same way Long Run was by Kauto in 2011. That was my big error.
But what Conti showed was when he's forced to focus and kept to work he jumps superb, he has huge reserves of stamina and he's a serious horses. From the evidence, I think he had every chance to win the Gold Cup in 2013 as Long Run and Sir Des Champs ran eachother into the ground at the front he might well have stayed on as well as Bobs Worth in his favoured ground and won. If's and buts. There is also the question, does he prefer flatter tracks where he can get into a rhythm in his jumping. These usually are just things to pick upon to convince yourself a horse won't win tbh. Like Kauto doesn't stay the Gold Cup trip, or he doesn't like Cheltenham was the way to oppose him in 2009.
Bottom line is Conti posted the best staying performance of the season so far in the King George, he did smash them. Nicholls reported he normally puts a lot into his race, yet he seemed fine and fresh after his win. He also mentioed he wasn't finishing off races as well last season, which seems true as 3/4 race he really didn't power away like he did on his previous two starts this season. We could also put down the King George win to Cue Card emptying more tha Conti powering home. Remember Kauto never finished off races in his penultimate season yet came back to power home in a Betfair and King George.
The point I'm making is judge a horse on his current season form more than past seasons. Look at Road to Riches for an example of that. Trainers change things and learn from mistakes, well the best do. Conti has looked superb this season and he's got a huge chance in March. Had he had the cheek pieces on, he wouldn't have wandered last season and he'd have won you feel.
I haven't a cent on either TNO or Conti. I haven't much at all in either race, but they're very much on my mind. Why maintain you were right about a horse not being good enough when the evidence shows you're most likely wrong? Better admit you were wrong and take them seriously.
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I've been a Conti fan for a long time and he looked his best ever on Boxing day. It was great to see him
jumping so fluently and keeping a straight line. The price is too short, but I won't bet anything else for the Gold Cup now. TNO always seemed to have an excuse when he lost, but you have to start to think that he's the business now. I didn't even buy the hard luck stories for the Champion Hurdle, last year, but he's not got a lot left to prove. I almost think it would be a shame if he never picked up the big one. Good luck waiting for 4/1 though - I can't see it happening. |
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PeteTheBloke 31 Dec 14 19:30 Joined: 10 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 2,881 | Blogger: PeteTheBloke's blog
Good luck waiting for 4/1 though - I can't see it happening. Oh I can, don't forget the race is run on the first day of the festival, the best day for value and push outs. Someone will go 100% book or under and push everything out, even if there is only 6 runner field, which is looking increasingly likely. To be 4/1 Faugheen would have to be around the 5/4 mark morning of the race, if we presume there will only be 6-8 runners, can see Faugheen being around the 4/5 8/11 area in the week leading up to the big day so i can see someone offering 5/4, maybe even 6/4. How often do we see that happening and then someone like hills, lads, even stan james, being it their race offering staggering prices? Problem with these offers though is, you need to be close to a shop unless your lucky enough to still be able to bet with said firm online |
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Great write ups CV. One of the reasons I love the jumps is that the season is like a good wine. We open her up and just let her breathe and savour the thought of what she will taste like come the spring.
I think Silvy is a worthy favourite. I'm still slightly sat on the fence in one regard. I don't know know how far clear of the rest he is at their peaks because there is definite improvement this year. Has Nicholls brought him to the boil too early and is there enough time to bring him to another peak or has he moved far enough clear now that he hasn't needed to get him to that level yet? If it's the former then there are a few who could be in with a squeak and if it's the latter I think he could win well in March. I've rarely backed with or against him and I don't think that will change. I'm categorically against TNO. His last run told us nothing new Ih he holds a position turning in he has a hell of a chance. I think he will find himself playig catch up after being left behind on the run down hill as happened last year. I think Faugheen is it and won't change that view until events tell me otherwise. I don't think it will be an Istabraq style job because I do think that Jezki being a spring horse won't relinquish his crown easily but that is how I see things. |
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They get so competitive in the morning of the first two days. I can see Fly being bet in weeks leading up due to sentiment and 111 in Ireland and Faugheen being one the bookies will take large amounts of money on. People love an unbeaten horse and people who made lots on him last season will stay loyal. Prices don't matter too much to Cheltenham only bettors.
I just feel bookies will keep Jezki onside, he won't ever go above 6/1 and feel he'll be shorter as we get closer as people see him as an e/w horse. TNO will win a nothing race next and not shorten much. Faugheen will win and bookies will go evens in places. I think bookies will want some money on TNO to offset liabilities and give a decent price around 10 am on the Tuesday. I'll take 7/2 or 4/1. My 3 speculative bets look gone now, Vaniteux, Irving and Tiger Roll nowhere near good enough. Faugheen won me my pot last season, loyalty at those odds is madness. I just feel Jezki got too much luck last season in the Champion and losing to an old Fly isn't the form you want, trained for one race or not. I won't bet big at all in the race this year, but I'll be there so want to bet on something. TNO will probably be the best value. Really not a race to be making money in though. As far as the Gold Cup, Conti looks serious at anything like 3/1+ on the day. I love Road to Riches, what he's done for me this season, loyalty bet is a must but I just feel only one horse has looked a cut above and it's Conti. But again, Gold Cup is too open to be investing too much in. Boston Bob looks a stonking e/w though, good ground, dour stayer imv yet still has enough pace to not be outpaced at key point in the race. Can't see Ruby not riding tbh |
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Something about Faugheen beating weak horses doesn't sit right with me with relation to his odds. What Ruby and Mullins said is right, Fly would have slaughtered the same horses in those same races as easily. I can't knock Faugheen, you can only do what needs to be done. His time in the Christmas hurdle pointed to him being a serious horse. But what if he hits the 2nd last down the hill and AP and Sam have the smarts to kick on a bit to take advantage of that knowing their horses stay up the hill well. The amounts you need to bet at skinny odds you want to be seriously confident a horse is very much better than his rivals. Faugheen will have 2, maybe even 3 if you include Fly top class rivals to beat.
My speculative antepost bets in Both Champion hurdle and Gold Cup have not worked out. It'll be an on the day job now, so am fully open minded about what to back and at what price. I'll take on board good opinions, look to be backing the winner for the fun of that, rather than trying to make any serious money from either race. The days of telling all and sundry Hurricane Fly will win the Champion hurdle and I cannot be swayed are well behind me.  |
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I cant have cheekpieces have improved SC so much this season,Obviously he has improved but doubt very much it's down to just the application of cheekpieces,And certainly cant have he would have won the GC last season with cheekpieces,
I just don't think cheltenham is his track,Simple as that,His effort last season when leading over the last and staggering up the hill like a drunk was imo because he wasn't good enough at Cheltenham,I mean lets face it,He was outstayed up the hill by 3 bang average horses (Lord Windermere,On His Own and The Giant Bolster)if he couldn't win it against that lot then i cant see how he can possibly win this seasons. |
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http://tinyurl.com/no2lc5f |
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you may be right regarding conte cvb ,but I am sticking with the jonjo stable to deliver the goods in the gold cup ,stable has been well out of form but this could be a blessing in disguise as his challengers should go there fresh and having had no battles or slogs ,have had to back all three of his contenders shutthefrontdoor,tarqin du seul and holywell but have got decent odds as the stable have been so quiet ,jonjo can be relied upon to have em ready for the big day and have had my biggest ante post bets ever on the 3 of em so heres hoping he can come back to form ,good luck with yours .
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It's easy to knock Jezki's Champion Hurdle considering what happened, but he won really well for me. Whenever there's a winner of a big race that shouldn't have won; the form is always doubted and the winner underestimated. There is nothing to say Jezki cannot improve this season and be even better come race day, he's only just turned 7 after all. Should not be 3rd favourite imo.
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I'm starting to come around to SC in the Gold Cup as well. He has it won for 3m 2f last year. I think they have him in front to early in last years GC though which is a bit of a worry given the way he's been doing his winning so far this season, really wouldn't want them making all like in the KG. I'm sure they've learnt from last year though and will have no worries playing him later. He's shown much improved form this season and the opposition has done the opposite. I think 3/1 is probably pretty fair tbh.
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couldn't have conti for the gold cup, the king george was allways going to be his race.
the new one cost me a packet at last years festival, if pp go over the odds with him for this years champion hurdle, i'll pile in again !!!!!!!! just over 9 weeks away !!!!1 |
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I dont get the amazement at Jezki's win last year. He was close up with a poor ride two years ago and was a year younger than MTOY and had a top jockey on for the champion. He was fully entitled to be very close to MTOY as proved to be the case.
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Can't believe Jezki's price either, I wasn't a fan until after last year's CH, he's rock solid with how the race will be run, it's almost immaterial what happens in the Irish races throughout the winter (within reason), he has no questions to answer, whilst the short priced fav. does, I'm more than happy to play the percentages and gamble that with all things considered, Faugheen will be more likely to not live up to his billing.
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Been beaten twice already this season. I would say he does have questions to answer personally.
The Champion Hurdle will be won by Faugheen. The New One has had his chance for me and it has now gone. Will be outpaced and finish 3rd. Jezki will be 2nd. |
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They all have questions to answer.
Jezki as you say beaten twice, although he lost to HF on his way to winning it last year,so his fans would point to that. Faugheen yet to face a viable CH opponent and has to prove hes at this level,in particular with his jumping. TNO has jumping issues as well imo. |
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Having that though,i do believe all 3 are serious CH contenders, and would not be surprised should either of them win.
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at the prices of the top 3 then for me jezki is the value win and place ,duffy pretty much voices my views on the race ,jezki rock solid been there and done it in the one that matters .
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10 years since the last back to back winner (Hardy Eustace). I think he may run into one too good this year.
If TNO gets too 4's that'll be my play, but not in any rush to have a bet in this. |
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Not had a bet on any of the top 3 and doubt I will now till the day.
Its so bl00dy difficult when we have a horse like Faugheen that's still unexposed, as in not facing any viable opponents as yet.He really could be anything from simply not as good as the others to the new superstar!! Just don't know, and anyway his price now is simply too short to back antepost. All season I have felt that TNO would be the most likely winner, and nothing I have seen since has changed that view,but hes never been the price that would tempt me,mostly cos of the Faugheen factor. Jezki is better value simply cos hes the bigger price of the 3, and an e/w price........if you like that sort of thing. |
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In some respects I rather like this cloak and dagger routine allowing us to speculate right up to the day. Had he run against The Fly and Jezki the other day and been beaten ten lengths then the champion would possess little intrigue. Now it has all the intrigue in the world and for me is amongst the most keenly awaited races. Jezki will go down fighting for me but I think Faugheen will win but that is the greatness of having the debate.
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i'm hoping paddy can be charmed into going 4s TNO, his shop in cheltenham is the place to get value.
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I wouldn't advice antepost in the CH markets now. Definitely worth waiting for offers etc in the week leading up to the festival now.
The GC is different as it actually looks to be more than a 3 horse race at this stage. |
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As great Faugheen looks. Faugheen will face essentially all new rivals in March bar Purple Bay as Irving was injured in Christmas Hurdle. Not to mention he's not a slick jumper, he could make a mistake at the last which hands the advantage to TNO and it's a matter of pegging him back then. Small margins when backing one at 5/4 or whatever he is. You'd have to be out to get him as a layer and I can see him being 2/1 on the day.
Then We've Conti, he was awesome in the King George, deserved fav. But look at the King George field again. Not a single one of those horses will line up in the Gold Cup!! The next 11 in the betting for the Gold Cup are not from the King George. Not to mention On His Own beat him in the Gold Cup and he ran to form in the Lexus when 2nd to Road to Riches. We've plenty of 2nd season Novices like Many Clouds, Smad Place, Carlingford Lough who could play big hand as could improvers like Houblon Des Obeaux. So it's not say one specific horse will beat him, it's the collective threat of many good horses where one could emerge and run a huge race to beat him. |
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Faugheen will not be 2-1 on the day from a current price of evens/5-4 unless he has a bad next race, wont happen.
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CVByrne
03 Jan 15 12:41 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 4,244 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog As great Faugheen looks. Faugheen will face essentially all new rivals in March bar Purple Bay as Irving was injured in Christmas Hurdle. Not to mention he's not a slick jumper, he could make a mistake at the last which hands the advantage to TNO and it's a matter of pegging him back then. Small margins when backing one at 5/4 or whatever he is. You'd have to be out to get him as a layer and I can see him being 2/1 on the day. don't get this post CV Byrne on one hand you are hoping for 4/1 TNO on the day earlier in the thread and then in your last post you think the layers will want to get faugheen and he might drift to 2/1 doesn't make sense to me all this |
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I think it's easy to knock the form of the King George, and say none of those behind Conti will run in the Gold Cup, but that is only because he put them in their place so comfortably.
Going into the race, the likes of Champagne Fever, Cue Card, Al Ferof and Dynaste all had ambitions of going for the Gold Cup and the King George was where they were to stamp their mark, but it shows the level of Conti's performance to make all of those four shift their festival targets. |
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Different bookies harry, one or more bookies will want to get Faugheen, or will go 2/1 for 15 mins like someone always does. Another bookie will have a big liability on Faugheen and want to get some money in early on TNO.
I'm not being exact, 15/8 or 11/4 is very near to 2/1 or 4/1. |
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Exactly that Wellchief, CF was challenging for favouritism before being being put in his place and Cue Card wasn't far behind.
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One way of looking at it Chief,but end of the day the fact is he beat horses that will not line up in the Gold Cup.
Had he had proper stayers in the race we may have had a different result. Personally would look at the Lexus as a Gold Cup trial more than the KG......a lot more. That's not to say Conti cannot win the GC of course,he was very impressive and may have won the KG whatever the opposition. To win the GC though he has to prove hes as good on non flat tracks....hes yet to do that,and that as well as the fact hes failed in the race twice means to me his price is too short. |
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Wellchief, I'm not knocking what Conti did, it was excellent performance. But the fact remains he beat no horses who will run in the Gold Cup. So he'll have an army of new horses who stay very well indeed to contend with on a track he's never won at. Conti got into a jumping rhythm and galloped them into the ground at Kempton.
In relation to his 11/4 price, he has raced against 3 or the next 11 horses in the betting. Bobs Worth, On His Own & Lord Windermere and two of those beat him that time. You have to admit his current price is based on his performances in the Betfair Chase and King George, beating horses who won't reoppose him in March and you can say none of them are proven stayers. He's a worthy fav, and I think he'd have gone very close or won last year in the Gold Cup had he worn the Cheekpieces. But 11/4 is a price to wait on. |
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He could be like the Fly, where other tracks suit better than Cheltenham, but I don't think that the competition is particularly strong against Conti, and I'm hoping his class will pull him through.
I'm hoping that Lord Windermere and On His Own was a one off last year. On His Own is 11 now, and Lord Windermere? Well if he wins another G1 I'll give him the respect he will deserve, but he is far too in and out for my liking and couldn't back him with any confidence at all. I'd like to see the best horses come to the forefront at the end, and I'm hoping that's Conti and Road to Riches. The likes of Sam Winner, Carlingford Lough and Boston Bob were all well held in their respective race last year. You're right to look at the Lexus as it will contain a lot more runners, but imo nowhere near the quality of the King George. What if Conti had run a few seconds slower and Dynaste and Champagne Fever were only beaten half a length. We'd have three at the top of the market, and people would be saying what a strong King George it was - imo it is Conti's smashing of them is now being held against him, rather than the other way round. |
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Thing is it don't really matter so much about quality if they don't stay 3m well enough.
Fehily knew before the race exactly what to do as would no doubt have discussed the race with connections and sussed out all the opposition were doubtful stayers.All that was needed then was the horse to put in a good jumping round,he did that well, and credit to him for that, and won comfortably. Achieving that at a course hes not proven at against proper stayers is a totally different kettle,and one hes failed at twice.Is it as simple as a pair of cheekpieces?? maybe, but I aint convinced, and it certainly would not get me taking current prices cos hes now wearing them. Thing about the Lexus is it contained winners and runners up from previous Gold Cups, and that's the race we are discussing....the Gold Cup, that for me is very relative and pretty important. |
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Silviniaco Conti won't win the Gold Cup either imo. Best on flat tracks.
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wellchief 03 Jan 15 14:30 Joined: 17 Dec 09 | Topic/replies: 1,822 | Blogger: wellchief's blog
You're right to look at the Lexus as it will contain a lot more runners, but imo nowhere near the quality of the King George. I know you didn;t intend it that way but. I'm sorry but that line smacks of "Enlgish racing is better than Irish" to me. Why is it nowhere near the quality of the King George please? The Gold Cup 1-2, last years Lexus and a Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth, Boston Bob dual grade one winner, Carlingford Lough dual grade 1 winner, Road to Riches now dual grade 1 winner. First Lieutenant dual grade 1 winner. Sam Winner and Home Farm the only two horses who hadn't won grade 1's over 3miles. Sam has won 3 good chases over 25f+ though. When you look at the King George you have 2 horses who won grade 1's over 3 miles and Cue Cards 2m7f Betfair Chase should't really count tbh. Dynaste won the Feltham. So tell me why in relation to the 27f Gold Cup is the King George vastly superior to the Lexus please? Because it was run in England? |
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I'm not being exact, 15/8 or 11/4 is very near to 2/1 or 4/1.
11-4 is very near to 3-1 not 4-1.  haha it is indeed. My mistake, But you know what I mean. 7/2, 15/4 .. close to 4/1 for TNO. 15/8 close to 2/1 for Faugheen etc.. |
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I'm sorry but that line smacks of "Enlgish racing is better than Irish" to me
So tell me why in relation to the 27f Gold Cup is the King George vastly superior to the Lexus please? Because it was run in England? I can't be bothered responding to that. |
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thought id lost the plot then |
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Sorry chief, wasn't having a go or anything. But all the Gold Cup horses ran in Lexus and you said it was "nowhere near the quality of the King George". I just disagree with that given the Lexus was of seriously high quality this year.
My point was the G1 winning stayers and Gold Cup horses ran in Lexus this year. So the race should be high on the list as Gold Cup trials go, more so this year than the King George where only Conti will end up in the Gold Cup. |