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Two horses I've never warmed to or like for whatever reason. The New One and Silvianaco Conti. I have to just accept I got them wrong, I opposed them as I believe their prices over estimated their chance at Cheltenham last season. They both got beat but I feel they both have big excuses. Obviously the New One was badly hampered early by Our Conor, while Sil Conti wandered badly on the run in, he seems a bit soft but when he had the cheek pieces applied he looked a different horse. While for me in the Bula TNO was awesome, it was professional as hell performance from him.
Faugheen, he looks amazing, I know he beat little in the Christmas Hurdle but he won it well 6 seconds quicker than Jollyallen (a £250k purchase by JP out of Frys yard) which is impressive. But for whatever reason I feel he's stayed over hurdles because of how many horses Mullins & Ricci had to go chasing. I just haven't seen him beat top class rivals. I remember people knocked Fly for "winning slow race in mud in Ireland" but he was beating Solwhit a 6 time grade 1 winner at the time, Thousand Stars a multiple grade 1 winner himself always back in 3rd. Sometimes you need to beat class horses to show you're good.
The New One has beaten some quality horses and his form at Cheltenham is superb. I don't think he likes the flat out 2m4f of the Aintree Hurdle, but feel he'll relish tracking Faugheen all the way round Cheltenham. I just think he has a turn of foot Faugheen may not have at the proper top level in Champion Hurdle, the turn of foot his price assumes he has. I think My Tent or Yours would have posted a huge performance in that Christmas Hurdle, very fast early pace and then Faugheen to take him all the way to the last hurdle, keenness would be no problem at that pace. Then we've got Jezki who need a monster end to end pace to be seen at his best, they will have 2 pace makers again in the Champion for him.
But all this just sets it up for The New One I feel, he has the ability to quicken and then hold on. The same way Fly beat Jezki the other day, he could quicken to get to the lead and then doesn't tire before the line. I think that small burst of speed when asked will be telling. Obviously Hurricane Fly won't be able to use that speed at Cheltenham as he's too old now and he has never liked the track, not to mention he'll have no Ruby Walsh on his back.
So we're left with the 3 principles. Faugheen too short, Jezki in with solid e/w chance but his Champion Hurdle win came when Our Conor died, TNO was hampered, Fly didn't run to form and MTOY was absurdly keen yet still battled it out. TNO might be a decent enough price on the day and there is sure to be sentiment on Fly if he wins again next month. If 4/1 was offered on the day I'd be biting their hands off on an e/w to nothing bet there.
Then we've Conti. He cost me £485 in the King George when I utterly stupidly decided to lay the horse, each way !!! He causes contributed to biggest single day loss of money I've ever had. Lessons learned. To be honest, it really was a stupid bet as the evidence was there from the Betfair Chase he'd never be let get outpaced ever again, he'd be up there to force the pace if required. Why I felt he'd be mid division and outpaced down the back the same way Long Run was by Kauto in 2011. That was my big error.
But what Conti showed was when he's forced to focus and kept to work he jumps superb, he has huge reserves of stamina and he's a serious horses. From the evidence, I think he had every chance to win the Gold Cup in 2013 as Long Run and Sir Des Champs ran eachother into the ground at the front he might well have stayed on as well as Bobs Worth in his favoured ground and won. If's and buts. There is also the question, does he prefer flatter tracks where he can get into a rhythm in his jumping. These usually are just things to pick upon to convince yourself a horse won't win tbh. Like Kauto doesn't stay the Gold Cup trip, or he doesn't like Cheltenham was the way to oppose him in 2009.
Bottom line is Conti posted the best staying performance of the season so far in the King George, he did smash them. Nicholls reported he normally puts a lot into his race, yet he seemed fine and fresh after his win. He also mentioed he wasn't finishing off races as well last season, which seems true as 3/4 race he really didn't power away like he did on his previous two starts this season. We could also put down the King George win to Cue Card emptying more tha Conti powering home. Remember Kauto never finished off races in his penultimate season yet came back to power home in a Betfair and King George.
The point I'm making is judge a horse on his current season form more than past seasons. Look at Road to Riches for an example of that. Trainers change things and learn from mistakes, well the best do. Conti has looked superb this season and he's got a huge chance in March. Had he had the cheek pieces on, he wouldn't have wandered last season and he'd have won you feel.
I haven't a cent on either TNO or Conti. I haven't much at all in either race, but they're very much on my mind. Why maintain you were right about a horse not being good enough when the evidence shows you're most likely wrong? Better admit you were wrong and take them seriously.
Faugheen, he looks amazing, I know he beat little in the Christmas Hurdle but he won it well 6 seconds quicker than Jollyallen (a £250k purchase by JP out of Frys yard) which is impressive. But for whatever reason I feel he's stayed over hurdles because of how many horses Mullins & Ricci had to go chasing. I just haven't seen him beat top class rivals. I remember people knocked Fly for "winning slow race in mud in Ireland" but he was beating Solwhit a 6 time grade 1 winner at the time, Thousand Stars a multiple grade 1 winner himself always back in 3rd. Sometimes you need to beat class horses to show you're good.
The New One has beaten some quality horses and his form at Cheltenham is superb. I don't think he likes the flat out 2m4f of the Aintree Hurdle, but feel he'll relish tracking Faugheen all the way round Cheltenham. I just think he has a turn of foot Faugheen may not have at the proper top level in Champion Hurdle, the turn of foot his price assumes he has. I think My Tent or Yours would have posted a huge performance in that Christmas Hurdle, very fast early pace and then Faugheen to take him all the way to the last hurdle, keenness would be no problem at that pace. Then we've got Jezki who need a monster end to end pace to be seen at his best, they will have 2 pace makers again in the Champion for him.
But all this just sets it up for The New One I feel, he has the ability to quicken and then hold on. The same way Fly beat Jezki the other day, he could quicken to get to the lead and then doesn't tire before the line. I think that small burst of speed when asked will be telling. Obviously Hurricane Fly won't be able to use that speed at Cheltenham as he's too old now and he has never liked the track, not to mention he'll have no Ruby Walsh on his back.
So we're left with the 3 principles. Faugheen too short, Jezki in with solid e/w chance but his Champion Hurdle win came when Our Conor died, TNO was hampered, Fly didn't run to form and MTOY was absurdly keen yet still battled it out. TNO might be a decent enough price on the day and there is sure to be sentiment on Fly if he wins again next month. If 4/1 was offered on the day I'd be biting their hands off on an e/w to nothing bet there.
Then we've Conti. He cost me £485 in the King George when I utterly stupidly decided to lay the horse, each way !!! He causes contributed to biggest single day loss of money I've ever had. Lessons learned. To be honest, it really was a stupid bet as the evidence was there from the Betfair Chase he'd never be let get outpaced ever again, he'd be up there to force the pace if required. Why I felt he'd be mid division and outpaced down the back the same way Long Run was by Kauto in 2011. That was my big error.
But what Conti showed was when he's forced to focus and kept to work he jumps superb, he has huge reserves of stamina and he's a serious horses. From the evidence, I think he had every chance to win the Gold Cup in 2013 as Long Run and Sir Des Champs ran eachother into the ground at the front he might well have stayed on as well as Bobs Worth in his favoured ground and won. If's and buts. There is also the question, does he prefer flatter tracks where he can get into a rhythm in his jumping. These usually are just things to pick upon to convince yourself a horse won't win tbh. Like Kauto doesn't stay the Gold Cup trip, or he doesn't like Cheltenham was the way to oppose him in 2009.
Bottom line is Conti posted the best staying performance of the season so far in the King George, he did smash them. Nicholls reported he normally puts a lot into his race, yet he seemed fine and fresh after his win. He also mentioed he wasn't finishing off races as well last season, which seems true as 3/4 race he really didn't power away like he did on his previous two starts this season. We could also put down the King George win to Cue Card emptying more tha Conti powering home. Remember Kauto never finished off races in his penultimate season yet came back to power home in a Betfair and King George.
The point I'm making is judge a horse on his current season form more than past seasons. Look at Road to Riches for an example of that. Trainers change things and learn from mistakes, well the best do. Conti has looked superb this season and he's got a huge chance in March. Had he had the cheek pieces on, he wouldn't have wandered last season and he'd have won you feel.
I haven't a cent on either TNO or Conti. I haven't much at all in either race, but they're very much on my mind. Why maintain you were right about a horse not being good enough when the evidence shows you're most likely wrong? Better admit you were wrong and take them seriously.
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I've been a Conti fan for a long time and he looked his best ever on Boxing day. It was great to see him
jumping so fluently and keeping a straight line. The price is too short, but I won't bet anything else
for the Gold Cup now.
TNO always seemed to have an excuse when he lost, but you have to start to think that he's the business
now. I didn't even buy the hard luck stories for the Champion Hurdle, last year, but he's not got a lot left
to prove. I almost think it would be a shame if he never picked up the big one. Good luck waiting for 4/1
though - I can't see it happening.
jumping so fluently and keeping a straight line. The price is too short, but I won't bet anything else
for the Gold Cup now.
TNO always seemed to have an excuse when he lost, but you have to start to think that he's the business
now. I didn't even buy the hard luck stories for the Champion Hurdle, last year, but he's not got a lot left
to prove. I almost think it would be a shame if he never picked up the big one. Good luck waiting for 4/1
though - I can't see it happening.
PeteTheBloke 31 Dec 14 19:30 Joined: 10 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 2,881 | Blogger: PeteTheBloke's blog
Good luck waiting for 4/1
though - I can't see it happening.
Oh I can, don't forget the race is run on the first day of the festival, the best day for value and push outs. Someone will go 100% book or under and push everything out, even if there is only 6 runner field, which is looking increasingly likely. To be 4/1 Faugheen would have to be around the 5/4 mark morning of the race, if we presume there will only be 6-8 runners, can see Faugheen being around the 4/5 8/11 area in the week leading up to the big day so i can see someone offering 5/4, maybe even 6/4. How often do we see that happening and then someone like hills, lads, even stan james, being it their race offering staggering prices? Problem with these offers though is, you need to be close to a shop unless your lucky enough to still be able to bet with said firm online
Good luck waiting for 4/1
though - I can't see it happening.
Oh I can, don't forget the race is run on the first day of the festival, the best day for value and push outs. Someone will go 100% book or under and push everything out, even if there is only 6 runner field, which is looking increasingly likely. To be 4/1 Faugheen would have to be around the 5/4 mark morning of the race, if we presume there will only be 6-8 runners, can see Faugheen being around the 4/5 8/11 area in the week leading up to the big day so i can see someone offering 5/4, maybe even 6/4. How often do we see that happening and then someone like hills, lads, even stan james, being it their race offering staggering prices? Problem with these offers though is, you need to be close to a shop unless your lucky enough to still be able to bet with said firm online
Great write ups CV. One of the reasons I love the jumps is that the season is like a good wine. We open her up and just let her breathe and savour the thought of what she will taste like come the spring.
I think Silvy is a worthy favourite. I'm still slightly sat on the fence in one regard. I don't know know how far clear of the rest he is at their peaks because there is definite improvement this year. Has Nicholls brought him to the boil too early and is there enough time to bring him to another peak or has he moved far enough clear now that he hasn't needed to get him to that level yet? If it's the former then there are a few who could be in with a squeak and if it's the latter I think he could win well in March. I've rarely backed with or against him and I don't think that will change.
I'm categorically against TNO. His last run told us nothing new Ih he holds a position turning in he has a hell of a chance. I think he will find himself playig catch up after being left behind on the run down hill as happened last year. I think Faugheen is it and won't change that view until events tell me otherwise. I don't think it will be an Istabraq style job because I do think that Jezki being a spring horse won't relinquish his crown easily but that is how I see things.
I think Silvy is a worthy favourite. I'm still slightly sat on the fence in one regard. I don't know know how far clear of the rest he is at their peaks because there is definite improvement this year. Has Nicholls brought him to the boil too early and is there enough time to bring him to another peak or has he moved far enough clear now that he hasn't needed to get him to that level yet? If it's the former then there are a few who could be in with a squeak and if it's the latter I think he could win well in March. I've rarely backed with or against him and I don't think that will change.
I'm categorically against TNO. His last run told us nothing new Ih he holds a position turning in he has a hell of a chance. I think he will find himself playig catch up after being left behind on the run down hill as happened last year. I think Faugheen is it and won't change that view until events tell me otherwise. I don't think it will be an Istabraq style job because I do think that Jezki being a spring horse won't relinquish his crown easily but that is how I see things.
They get so competitive in the morning of the first two days. I can see Fly being bet in weeks leading up due to sentiment and 111 in Ireland and Faugheen being one the bookies will take large amounts of money on. People love an unbeaten horse and people who made lots on him last season will stay loyal. Prices don't matter too much to Cheltenham only bettors.
I just feel bookies will keep Jezki onside, he won't ever go above 6/1 and feel he'll be shorter as we get closer as people see him as an e/w horse. TNO will win a nothing race next and not shorten much. Faugheen will win and bookies will go evens in places. I think bookies will want some money on TNO to offset liabilities and give a decent price around 10 am on the Tuesday. I'll take 7/2 or 4/1. My 3 speculative bets look gone now, Vaniteux, Irving and Tiger Roll nowhere near good enough.
Faugheen won me my pot last season, loyalty at those odds is madness. I just feel Jezki got too much luck last season in the Champion and losing to an old Fly isn't the form you want, trained for one race or not. I won't bet big at all in the race this year, but I'll be there so want to bet on something. TNO will probably be the best value. Really not a race to be making money in though.
As far as the Gold Cup, Conti looks serious at anything like 3/1+ on the day. I love Road to Riches, what he's done for me this season, loyalty bet is a must but I just feel only one horse has looked a cut above and it's Conti. But again, Gold Cup is too open to be investing too much in. Boston Bob looks a stonking e/w though, good ground, dour stayer imv yet still has enough pace to not be outpaced at key point in the race. Can't see Ruby not riding tbh
I just feel bookies will keep Jezki onside, he won't ever go above 6/1 and feel he'll be shorter as we get closer as people see him as an e/w horse. TNO will win a nothing race next and not shorten much. Faugheen will win and bookies will go evens in places. I think bookies will want some money on TNO to offset liabilities and give a decent price around 10 am on the Tuesday. I'll take 7/2 or 4/1. My 3 speculative bets look gone now, Vaniteux, Irving and Tiger Roll nowhere near good enough.
Faugheen won me my pot last season, loyalty at those odds is madness. I just feel Jezki got too much luck last season in the Champion and losing to an old Fly isn't the form you want, trained for one race or not. I won't bet big at all in the race this year, but I'll be there so want to bet on something. TNO will probably be the best value. Really not a race to be making money in though.
As far as the Gold Cup, Conti looks serious at anything like 3/1+ on the day. I love Road to Riches, what he's done for me this season, loyalty bet is a must but I just feel only one horse has looked a cut above and it's Conti. But again, Gold Cup is too open to be investing too much in. Boston Bob looks a stonking e/w though, good ground, dour stayer imv yet still has enough pace to not be outpaced at key point in the race. Can't see Ruby not riding tbh
Something about Faugheen beating weak horses doesn't sit right with me with relation to his odds. What Ruby and Mullins said is right, Fly would have slaughtered the same horses in those same races as easily. I can't knock Faugheen, you can only do what needs to be done. His time in the Christmas hurdle pointed to him being a serious horse. But what if he hits the 2nd last down the hill and AP and Sam have the smarts to kick on a bit to take advantage of that knowing their horses stay up the hill well. The amounts you need to bet at skinny odds you want to be seriously confident a horse is very much better than his rivals. Faugheen will have 2, maybe even 3 if you include Fly top class rivals to beat.
My speculative antepost bets in Both Champion hurdle and Gold Cup have not worked out. It'll be an on the day job now, so am fully open minded about what to back and at what price. I'll take on board good opinions, look to be backing the winner for the fun of that, rather than trying to make any serious money from either race. The days of telling all and sundry Hurricane Fly will win the Champion hurdle and I cannot be swayed are well behind me.
My speculative antepost bets in Both Champion hurdle and Gold Cup have not worked out. It'll be an on the day job now, so am fully open minded about what to back and at what price. I'll take on board good opinions, look to be backing the winner for the fun of that, rather than trying to make any serious money from either race. The days of telling all and sundry Hurricane Fly will win the Champion hurdle and I cannot be swayed are well behind me.
I cant have cheekpieces have improved SC so much this season,Obviously he has improved but doubt very much it's down to just the application of cheekpieces,And certainly cant have he would have won the GC last season with cheekpieces,
I just don't think cheltenham is his track,Simple as that,His effort last season when leading over the last and staggering up the hill like a drunk was imo because he wasn't good enough at Cheltenham,I mean lets face it,He was outstayed up the hill by 3 bang average horses (Lord Windermere,On His Own and The Giant Bolster)if he couldn't win it against that lot then i cant see how he can possibly win this seasons.
I just don't think cheltenham is his track,Simple as that,His effort last season when leading over the last and staggering up the hill like a drunk was imo because he wasn't good enough at Cheltenham,I mean lets face it,He was outstayed up the hill by 3 bang average horses (Lord Windermere,On His Own and The Giant Bolster)if he couldn't win it against that lot then i cant see how he can possibly win this seasons.
you may be right regarding conte cvb ,but I am sticking with the jonjo stable to deliver the goods in the gold cup ,stable has been well out of form but this could be a blessing in disguise as his challengers should go there fresh and having had no battles or slogs ,have had to back all three of his contenders shutthefrontdoor,tarqin du seul and holywell but have got decent odds as the stable have been so quiet ,jonjo can be relied upon to have em ready for the big day and have had my biggest ante post bets ever on the 3 of em so heres hoping he can come back to form ,good luck with yours .
It's easy to knock Jezki's Champion Hurdle considering what happened, but he won really well for me. Whenever there's a winner of a big race that shouldn't have won; the form is always doubted and the winner underestimated. There is nothing to say Jezki cannot improve this season and be even better come race day, he's only just turned 7 after all. Should not be 3rd favourite imo.
I'm starting to come around to SC in the Gold Cup as well. He has it won for 3m 2f last year. I think they have him in front to early in last years GC though which is a bit of a worry given the way he's been doing his winning so far this season, really wouldn't want them making all like in the KG. I'm sure they've learnt from last year though and will have no worries playing him later. He's shown much improved form this season and the opposition has done the opposite. I think 3/1 is probably pretty fair tbh. 
couldn't have conti for the gold cup, the king george was allways going to be his race.
the new one cost me a packet at last years festival, if pp go over the odds with him for this years champion hurdle, i'll pile in again !!!!!!!!
just over 9 weeks away !!!!1
the new one cost me a packet at last years festival, if pp go over the odds with him for this years champion hurdle, i'll pile in again !!!!!!!!
just over 9 weeks away !!!!1
I dont get the amazement at Jezki's win last year. He was close up with a poor ride two years ago and was a year younger than MTOY and had a top jockey on for the champion. He was fully entitled to be very close to MTOY as proved to be the case.
Can't believe Jezki's price either, I wasn't a fan until after last year's CH, he's rock solid with how the race will be run, it's almost immaterial what happens in the Irish races throughout the winter (within reason), he has no questions to answer, whilst the short priced fav. does, I'm more than happy to play the percentages and gamble that with all things considered, Faugheen will be more likely to not live up to his billing.
Been beaten twice already this season. I would say he does have questions to answer personally.
The Champion Hurdle will be won by Faugheen. The New One has had his chance for me and it has now gone. Will be outpaced and finish 3rd. Jezki will be 2nd.
The Champion Hurdle will be won by Faugheen. The New One has had his chance for me and it has now gone. Will be outpaced and finish 3rd. Jezki will be 2nd.
They all have questions to answer.
Jezki as you say beaten twice, although he lost to HF on his way to winning it last year,so his fans would point to that.
Faugheen yet to face a viable CH opponent and has to prove hes at this level,in particular with his jumping.
TNO has jumping issues as well imo.
Jezki as you say beaten twice, although he lost to HF on his way to winning it last year,so his fans would point to that.
Faugheen yet to face a viable CH opponent and has to prove hes at this level,in particular with his jumping.
TNO has jumping issues as well imo.
Having that though,i do believe all 3 are serious CH contenders, and would not be surprised should either of them win.
at the prices of the top 3 then for me jezki is the value win and place ,duffy pretty much voices my views on the race ,jezki rock solid been there and done it in the one that matters .
10 years since the last back to back winner (Hardy Eustace). I think he may run into one too good this year.
If TNO gets too 4's that'll be my play, but not in any rush to have a bet in this.
If TNO gets too 4's that'll be my play, but not in any rush to have a bet in this.
Not had a bet on any of the top 3 and doubt I will now till the day.
Its so bl00dy difficult when we have a horse like Faugheen that's still unexposed, as in not facing any viable opponents as yet.He really could be anything from simply not as good as the others to the new superstar!!
Just don't know, and anyway his price now is simply too short to back antepost.
All season I have felt that TNO would be the most likely winner, and nothing I have seen since has changed that view,but hes never been the price that would tempt me,mostly cos of the Faugheen factor.
Jezki is better value simply cos hes the bigger price of the 3, and an e/w price........if you like that sort of thing.
Its so bl00dy difficult when we have a horse like Faugheen that's still unexposed, as in not facing any viable opponents as yet.He really could be anything from simply not as good as the others to the new superstar!!
Just don't know, and anyway his price now is simply too short to back antepost.
All season I have felt that TNO would be the most likely winner, and nothing I have seen since has changed that view,but hes never been the price that would tempt me,mostly cos of the Faugheen factor.
Jezki is better value simply cos hes the bigger price of the 3, and an e/w price........if you like that sort of thing.
In some respects I rather like this cloak and dagger routine allowing us to speculate right up to the day. Had he run against The Fly and Jezki the other day and been beaten ten lengths then the champion would possess little intrigue. Now it has all the intrigue in the world and for me is amongst the most keenly awaited races. Jezki will go down fighting for me but I think Faugheen will win but that is the greatness of having the debate.
i'm hoping paddy can be charmed into going 4s TNO, his shop in cheltenham is the place to get value.
I wouldn't advice antepost in the CH markets now. Definitely worth waiting for offers etc in the week leading up to the festival now.
The GC is different as it actually looks to be more than a 3 horse race at this stage.
The GC is different as it actually looks to be more than a 3 horse race at this stage.
As great Faugheen looks. Faugheen will face essentially all new rivals in March bar Purple Bay as Irving was injured in Christmas Hurdle. Not to mention he's not a slick jumper, he could make a mistake at the last which hands the advantage to TNO and it's a matter of pegging him back then. Small margins when backing one at 5/4 or whatever he is. You'd have to be out to get him as a layer and I can see him being 2/1 on the day.
Then We've Conti, he was awesome in the King George, deserved fav. But look at the King George field again. Not a single one of those horses will line up in the Gold Cup!! The next 11 in the betting for the Gold Cup are not from the King George. Not to mention On His Own beat him in the Gold Cup and he ran to form in the Lexus when 2nd to Road to Riches.
We've plenty of 2nd season Novices like Many Clouds, Smad Place, Carlingford Lough who could play big hand as could improvers like Houblon Des Obeaux. So it's not say one specific horse will beat him, it's the collective threat of many good horses where one could emerge and run a huge race to beat him.
Then We've Conti, he was awesome in the King George, deserved fav. But look at the King George field again. Not a single one of those horses will line up in the Gold Cup!! The next 11 in the betting for the Gold Cup are not from the King George. Not to mention On His Own beat him in the Gold Cup and he ran to form in the Lexus when 2nd to Road to Riches.
We've plenty of 2nd season Novices like Many Clouds, Smad Place, Carlingford Lough who could play big hand as could improvers like Houblon Des Obeaux. So it's not say one specific horse will beat him, it's the collective threat of many good horses where one could emerge and run a huge race to beat him.
Faugheen will not be 2-1 on the day from a current price of evens/5-4 unless he has a bad next race, wont happen.
CVByrne
03 Jan 15 12:41
Joined:
14 Mar 06
| Topic/replies: 4,244 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
As great Faugheen looks. Faugheen will face essentially all new rivals in March bar Purple Bay as Irving was injured in Christmas Hurdle. Not to mention he's not a slick jumper, he could make a mistake at the last which hands the advantage to TNO and it's a matter of pegging him back then. Small margins when backing one at 5/4 or whatever he is. You'd have to be out to get him as a layer and I can see him being 2/1 on the day.
don't get this post CV Byrne
on one hand you are hoping for 4/1 TNO on the day earlier in the thread
and then in your last post you think the layers will want to get faugheen and he might drift to 2/1
doesn't make sense to me all this
03 Jan 15 12:41
Joined:
14 Mar 06
| Topic/replies: 4,244 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
As great Faugheen looks. Faugheen will face essentially all new rivals in March bar Purple Bay as Irving was injured in Christmas Hurdle. Not to mention he's not a slick jumper, he could make a mistake at the last which hands the advantage to TNO and it's a matter of pegging him back then. Small margins when backing one at 5/4 or whatever he is. You'd have to be out to get him as a layer and I can see him being 2/1 on the day.
don't get this post CV Byrne
on one hand you are hoping for 4/1 TNO on the day earlier in the thread
and then in your last post you think the layers will want to get faugheen and he might drift to 2/1
doesn't make sense to me all this
I think it's easy to knock the form of the King George, and say none of those behind Conti will run in the Gold Cup, but that is only because he put them in their place so comfortably.
Going into the race, the likes of Champagne Fever, Cue Card, Al Ferof and Dynaste all had ambitions of going for the Gold Cup and the King George was where they were to stamp their mark, but it shows the level of Conti's performance to make all of those four shift their festival targets.
Going into the race, the likes of Champagne Fever, Cue Card, Al Ferof and Dynaste all had ambitions of going for the Gold Cup and the King George was where they were to stamp their mark, but it shows the level of Conti's performance to make all of those four shift their festival targets.
Different bookies harry, one or more bookies will want to get Faugheen, or will go 2/1 for 15 mins like someone always does. Another bookie will have a big liability on Faugheen and want to get some money in early on TNO.
I'm not being exact, 15/8 or 11/4 is very near to 2/1 or 4/1.
I'm not being exact, 15/8 or 11/4 is very near to 2/1 or 4/1.
Exactly that Wellchief, CF was challenging for favouritism before being being put in his place and Cue Card wasn't far behind.
One way of looking at it Chief,but end of the day the fact is he beat horses that will not line up in the Gold Cup.
Had he had proper stayers in the race we may have had a different result.
Personally would look at the Lexus as a Gold Cup trial more than the KG......a lot more.
That's not to say Conti cannot win the GC of course,he was very impressive and may have won the KG whatever the opposition.
To win the GC though he has to prove hes as good on non flat tracks....hes yet to do that,and that as well as the fact hes failed in the race twice means to me his price is too short.
Had he had proper stayers in the race we may have had a different result.
Personally would look at the Lexus as a Gold Cup trial more than the KG......a lot more.
That's not to say Conti cannot win the GC of course,he was very impressive and may have won the KG whatever the opposition.
To win the GC though he has to prove hes as good on non flat tracks....hes yet to do that,and that as well as the fact hes failed in the race twice means to me his price is too short.
Wellchief, I'm not knocking what Conti did, it was excellent performance. But the fact remains he beat no horses who will run in the Gold Cup. So he'll have an army of new horses who stay very well indeed to contend with on a track he's never won at. Conti got into a jumping rhythm and galloped them into the ground at Kempton.
In relation to his 11/4 price, he has raced against 3 or the next 11 horses in the betting. Bobs Worth, On His Own & Lord Windermere and two of those beat him that time. You have to admit his current price is based on his performances in the Betfair Chase and King George, beating horses who won't reoppose him in March and you can say none of them are proven stayers.
He's a worthy fav, and I think he'd have gone very close or won last year in the Gold Cup had he worn the Cheekpieces. But 11/4 is a price to wait on.
In relation to his 11/4 price, he has raced against 3 or the next 11 horses in the betting. Bobs Worth, On His Own & Lord Windermere and two of those beat him that time. You have to admit his current price is based on his performances in the Betfair Chase and King George, beating horses who won't reoppose him in March and you can say none of them are proven stayers.
He's a worthy fav, and I think he'd have gone very close or won last year in the Gold Cup had he worn the Cheekpieces. But 11/4 is a price to wait on.
He could be like the Fly, where other tracks suit better than Cheltenham, but I don't think that the competition is particularly strong against Conti, and I'm hoping his class will pull him through.
I'm hoping that Lord Windermere and On His Own was a one off last year. On His Own is 11 now, and Lord Windermere? Well if he wins another G1 I'll give him the respect he will deserve, but he is far too in and out for my liking and couldn't back him with any confidence at all. I'd like to see the best horses come to the forefront at the end, and I'm hoping that's Conti and Road to Riches. The likes of Sam Winner, Carlingford Lough and Boston Bob were all well held in their respective race last year.
You're right to look at the Lexus as it will contain a lot more runners, but imo nowhere near the quality of the King George. What if Conti had run a few seconds slower and Dynaste and Champagne Fever were only beaten half a length. We'd have three at the top of the market, and people would be saying what a strong King George it was - imo it is Conti's smashing of them is now being held against him, rather than the other way round.
I'm hoping that Lord Windermere and On His Own was a one off last year. On His Own is 11 now, and Lord Windermere? Well if he wins another G1 I'll give him the respect he will deserve, but he is far too in and out for my liking and couldn't back him with any confidence at all. I'd like to see the best horses come to the forefront at the end, and I'm hoping that's Conti and Road to Riches. The likes of Sam Winner, Carlingford Lough and Boston Bob were all well held in their respective race last year.
You're right to look at the Lexus as it will contain a lot more runners, but imo nowhere near the quality of the King George. What if Conti had run a few seconds slower and Dynaste and Champagne Fever were only beaten half a length. We'd have three at the top of the market, and people would be saying what a strong King George it was - imo it is Conti's smashing of them is now being held against him, rather than the other way round.
Thing is it don't really matter so much about quality if they don't stay 3m well enough.
Fehily knew before the race exactly what to do as would no doubt have discussed the race with connections and sussed out all the opposition were doubtful stayers.All that was needed then was the horse to put in a good jumping round,he did that well, and credit to him for that, and won comfortably.
Achieving that at a course hes not proven at against proper stayers is a totally different kettle,and one hes failed at twice.Is it as simple as a pair of cheekpieces?? maybe, but I aint convinced, and it certainly would not get me taking current prices cos hes now wearing them.
Thing about the Lexus is it contained winners and runners up from previous Gold Cups, and that's the race we are discussing....the Gold Cup, that for me is very relative and pretty important.
Fehily knew before the race exactly what to do as would no doubt have discussed the race with connections and sussed out all the opposition were doubtful stayers.All that was needed then was the horse to put in a good jumping round,he did that well, and credit to him for that, and won comfortably.
Achieving that at a course hes not proven at against proper stayers is a totally different kettle,and one hes failed at twice.Is it as simple as a pair of cheekpieces?? maybe, but I aint convinced, and it certainly would not get me taking current prices cos hes now wearing them.
Thing about the Lexus is it contained winners and runners up from previous Gold Cups, and that's the race we are discussing....the Gold Cup, that for me is very relative and pretty important.
Silviniaco Conti won't win the Gold Cup either imo. Best on flat tracks.
Jan 3, 2015 -- 1:14PM, harry callaghan wrote:
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CVByrne • January 3, 2015 1:53 PM GMT
Different bookies harry, one or more bookies will want to get Faugheen, or will go 2/1 for 15 mins like someone always does. Another bookie will have a big liability on Faugheen and want to get some money in early on TNO.
I'm not being exact, 15/8 or 11/4 is very near to 2/1 or 4/1.
11-4 is very near to 3-1 not 4-1.
wellchief 03 Jan 15 14:30 Joined: 17 Dec 09 | Topic/replies: 1,822 | Blogger: wellchief's blog
You're right to look at the Lexus as it will contain a lot more runners, but imo nowhere near the quality of the King George.
I know you didn;t intend it that way but. I'm sorry but that line smacks of "Enlgish racing is better than Irish" to me. Why is it nowhere near the quality of the King George please?
The Gold Cup 1-2, last years Lexus and a Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth, Boston Bob dual grade one winner, Carlingford Lough dual grade 1 winner, Road to Riches now dual grade 1 winner. First Lieutenant dual grade 1 winner.
Sam Winner and Home Farm the only two horses who hadn't won grade 1's over 3miles. Sam has won 3 good chases over 25f+ though.
When you look at the King George you have 2 horses who won grade 1's over 3 miles and Cue Cards 2m7f Betfair Chase should't really count tbh. Dynaste won the Feltham.
So tell me why in relation to the 27f Gold Cup is the King George vastly superior to the Lexus please? Because it was run in England?
You're right to look at the Lexus as it will contain a lot more runners, but imo nowhere near the quality of the King George.
I know you didn;t intend it that way but. I'm sorry but that line smacks of "Enlgish racing is better than Irish" to me. Why is it nowhere near the quality of the King George please?
The Gold Cup 1-2, last years Lexus and a Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth, Boston Bob dual grade one winner, Carlingford Lough dual grade 1 winner, Road to Riches now dual grade 1 winner. First Lieutenant dual grade 1 winner.
Sam Winner and Home Farm the only two horses who hadn't won grade 1's over 3miles. Sam has won 3 good chases over 25f+ though.
When you look at the King George you have 2 horses who won grade 1's over 3 miles and Cue Cards 2m7f Betfair Chase should't really count tbh. Dynaste won the Feltham.
So tell me why in relation to the 27f Gold Cup is the King George vastly superior to the Lexus please? Because it was run in England?
I'm not being exact, 15/8 or 11/4 is very near to 2/1 or 4/1.
11-4 is very near to 3-1 not 4-1.
haha it is indeed. My mistake, But you know what I mean. 7/2, 15/4 .. close to 4/1 for TNO. 15/8 close to 2/1 for Faugheen etc..
11-4 is very near to 3-1 not 4-1.
haha it is indeed. My mistake, But you know what I mean. 7/2, 15/4 .. close to 4/1 for TNO. 15/8 close to 2/1 for Faugheen etc..
I'm sorry but that line smacks of "Enlgish racing is better than Irish" to me
So tell me why in relation to the 27f Gold Cup is the King George vastly superior to the Lexus please? Because it was run in England?
I can't be bothered responding to that.
So tell me why in relation to the 27f Gold Cup is the King George vastly superior to the Lexus please? Because it was run in England?
I can't be bothered responding to that.
Sorry chief, wasn't having a go or anything. But all the Gold Cup horses ran in Lexus and you said it was "nowhere near the quality of the King George". I just disagree with that given the Lexus was of seriously high quality this year.
My point was the G1 winning stayers and Gold Cup horses ran in Lexus this year. So the race should be high on the list as Gold Cup trials go, more so this year than the King George where only Conti will end up in the Gold Cup.
My point was the G1 winning stayers and Gold Cup horses ran in Lexus this year. So the race should be high on the list as Gold Cup trials go, more so this year than the King George where only Conti will end up in the Gold Cup.
No worries CV - FYI, I tend to follow Irish Racing more than English, because I prefer watching ATR on a Sunday than CH4 on a Saturday. A lot of my antepost the last few years are Irish, and Lieutenant Colonel, Apache Stronghold and Vautour are three of my biggest this year.
Back on to the Gold Cup, I accept that a lot more from the Lexus will compete in the Gold Cup than the King George, and I believe Road to Riches is a serious animal. Can't help but think back to Last Instalment last year when he hosed up in the Irish Hennessy, but that has no bearing on this at all, so I won't make a point of that.
I accept that the Lexus had multiple 3m Grade 1 winners in it, but I can find negatives in them, as you can the King George runners. I'll rephrase the statement, and say that I think the King George has much better quality horses, with many festival winners in, but not necessarily 3m horses. So looking at the names in the King George, they are in a different league to the Lexus imo, but as a 3m chase, then yes, the Lexus has a lot more strength in depth.
People will call me naive and stupid, but I'm willing to draw a line through last years Gold Cup. If they ran that ten times, I don't think Lord Windermere and On His Own would finish 1-2 again. I said in your Gold Cup thread months ago, that I was willing to give Conti a second chance of last years beaten ones, and so far he has proved me right.
Of the Lexus runners, I know that Carlingford Lough is a G1 winner in Ireland, and Morning Assembly is a decent benchmark, but I don't think he is Gold Cup winning class (despite having a small punt on him in the summer). Other runners who Carlingford beat in those G1's were Ballycasey and Don Cossack - both not 3 milers imo.
First Lieutenant was another G1 winner in the Lexus, but again, whilst he is usually in the mix, he has proved time and time again, he is quite not up there as a Gold Cup winner, and is now getting on a bit. Bobs Worth imo is passed his best, no matter where he finished in that race.
I've said on here a few times that Boston Bob is far too in and out for me, and have never worked him out during his career, and for me cannot be a reliable benchmark. On His Own is now 11, was 70+ lengths behind Road to Riches in the JN Wine, and then popped up at the last pretty much in the lead in the Lexus?
So my view of the Lexus is that I'm glad Road to Riches won, because he was the unknown. As I've said in this thread, Carlingford, Sam Winner and Boston Bob were all well held at the Festival last year, and those are the races that I focus on.
I accept that several in the King George looked like non stayers, but imo staying can only really be in relation to the winner of the race. If Conti wasn't in the King George, you'd have Dynaste, Fever, Cue Card and Al Ferof in a bunch finish, all of whom are festival winners, and we'd be calling the King George a cracking renewal and throwing the Gold Cup wide open - they would all be 12/1 or less imo now.
Similar to Annie Power in the World Hurdle. If More of That didn't turn up, we'd all be saying she stayed on strongly up the hill, pulling away from At Fishers Cross, and she'd be antepost fav for the World Hurdle now.
Back on to the Gold Cup, I accept that a lot more from the Lexus will compete in the Gold Cup than the King George, and I believe Road to Riches is a serious animal. Can't help but think back to Last Instalment last year when he hosed up in the Irish Hennessy, but that has no bearing on this at all, so I won't make a point of that.
I accept that the Lexus had multiple 3m Grade 1 winners in it, but I can find negatives in them, as you can the King George runners. I'll rephrase the statement, and say that I think the King George has much better quality horses, with many festival winners in, but not necessarily 3m horses. So looking at the names in the King George, they are in a different league to the Lexus imo, but as a 3m chase, then yes, the Lexus has a lot more strength in depth.
People will call me naive and stupid, but I'm willing to draw a line through last years Gold Cup. If they ran that ten times, I don't think Lord Windermere and On His Own would finish 1-2 again. I said in your Gold Cup thread months ago, that I was willing to give Conti a second chance of last years beaten ones, and so far he has proved me right.
Of the Lexus runners, I know that Carlingford Lough is a G1 winner in Ireland, and Morning Assembly is a decent benchmark, but I don't think he is Gold Cup winning class (despite having a small punt on him in the summer). Other runners who Carlingford beat in those G1's were Ballycasey and Don Cossack - both not 3 milers imo.
First Lieutenant was another G1 winner in the Lexus, but again, whilst he is usually in the mix, he has proved time and time again, he is quite not up there as a Gold Cup winner, and is now getting on a bit. Bobs Worth imo is passed his best, no matter where he finished in that race.
I've said on here a few times that Boston Bob is far too in and out for me, and have never worked him out during his career, and for me cannot be a reliable benchmark. On His Own is now 11, was 70+ lengths behind Road to Riches in the JN Wine, and then popped up at the last pretty much in the lead in the Lexus?
So my view of the Lexus is that I'm glad Road to Riches won, because he was the unknown. As I've said in this thread, Carlingford, Sam Winner and Boston Bob were all well held at the Festival last year, and those are the races that I focus on.
I accept that several in the King George looked like non stayers, but imo staying can only really be in relation to the winner of the race. If Conti wasn't in the King George, you'd have Dynaste, Fever, Cue Card and Al Ferof in a bunch finish, all of whom are festival winners, and we'd be calling the King George a cracking renewal and throwing the Gold Cup wide open - they would all be 12/1 or less imo now.
Similar to Annie Power in the World Hurdle. If More of That didn't turn up, we'd all be saying she stayed on strongly up the hill, pulling away from At Fishers Cross, and she'd be antepost fav for the World Hurdle now.
king george v lexus - about equal imo bar the kauto years
Last Instalment needs soft ground and did a tendon in the Gold Cup. He never should have run in the race. Stupid of Giggenstown to have run him, like Pandorama back when his career was done in the same race. When will people learn
I agree last years Gold Cup was odd. But still Conti jumped the last in front and got beat into 4th fair and square. I can't really see the excuse bar him wandering over to the right on the run in. I just think Bobs and Conti just had no extra in the final yards.
But when it comes down to it, it just seems to show there isn't much between them these days. Conti beat Dynaste 4.5l at Kempton in King George and 1.5l at Aintree, First Lieutenant was 3.5l behind and was the same behind Boston Bob nto at Punchestown. FL was 1.5l behind Bobs Worth in the Lexus last season to boot.
As for On His Own, you have to accept that he got lazy in his old age lto and the Cheek Pieces worked a treat in the Lexus. Same way they helped Conti on his last 2 starts.
Boston Bob didn't even run at the Festival last year as far as I'm concerned, just hung around out back and ran on past beaten horses. He'd just had a wind op. He'd been messed around, 2 falls, 2 hurdle runs then into the Ryanair. Also he'd have gone close with Lord Windermere inthe RSa but for the fall, again this ties in with form above with Conti.
Carlingford Lough never jumped well at all in RSA yet he wasn't beaten too far, if he jumps better he stays so well he will enjoy the extra trip of the Gold Cup.
I just think there is some value in other horses on the basis Conti doesn't appear clear of the rivals he'll face in March. He has a fantastic chance, no King George winner doesn't. But horses like On His Own will be taking him on up front, Road to Riches too, so feel it'll be a relentless finish up the hill again and hold up horses like Carlingford Lough, Boston Bob & Lord Windermere would be ones to look at.
I agree last years Gold Cup was odd. But still Conti jumped the last in front and got beat into 4th fair and square. I can't really see the excuse bar him wandering over to the right on the run in. I just think Bobs and Conti just had no extra in the final yards.
But when it comes down to it, it just seems to show there isn't much between them these days. Conti beat Dynaste 4.5l at Kempton in King George and 1.5l at Aintree, First Lieutenant was 3.5l behind and was the same behind Boston Bob nto at Punchestown. FL was 1.5l behind Bobs Worth in the Lexus last season to boot.
As for On His Own, you have to accept that he got lazy in his old age lto and the Cheek Pieces worked a treat in the Lexus. Same way they helped Conti on his last 2 starts.
Boston Bob didn't even run at the Festival last year as far as I'm concerned, just hung around out back and ran on past beaten horses. He'd just had a wind op. He'd been messed around, 2 falls, 2 hurdle runs then into the Ryanair. Also he'd have gone close with Lord Windermere inthe RSa but for the fall, again this ties in with form above with Conti.
Carlingford Lough never jumped well at all in RSA yet he wasn't beaten too far, if he jumps better he stays so well he will enjoy the extra trip of the Gold Cup.
I just think there is some value in other horses on the basis Conti doesn't appear clear of the rivals he'll face in March. He has a fantastic chance, no King George winner doesn't. But horses like On His Own will be taking him on up front, Road to Riches too, so feel it'll be a relentless finish up the hill again and hold up horses like Carlingford Lough, Boston Bob & Lord Windermere would be ones to look at.
Fair do's mate, you put your money down and you take your chance.
As you say, for those against the King George form means there's some good value out there on the other horses.
I probably will take the 10's on Road to Riches as a saver; lighlty raced, right age and improving with each race - I think the rest are all much of a muchness.
As you say, for those against the King George form means there's some good value out there on the other horses.
I probably will take the 10's on Road to Riches as a saver; lighlty raced, right age and improving with each race - I think the rest are all much of a muchness.
Have you been a Conti fan for a long while Chief? Like last year GC and before? If you're a big fan of the horse you have to stick by him. There is added joy beyond the cash winning a race like the Gold Cup or Champion Hurdle with one you've followed for a long time.
Yeah CV, been a fan for a while, probably since his first Charlie Hall and then when he beat Long Run in the Betfair.
I had my doubts originally when he was beat in the Feltham, especially when he supposedly like flat tracks.
Although he did cost me a fortune when he was a hurdler-he was the last leg in a massive treble when he came third behind Menorah and Cue Card.
I'd just love him to win one Gold Cup to get the respect he deserves given he's won 6 grade 2's and 5 grade 1's.
If he wins I think the debate on here will give me a little more satisfaction (no offence!). When SDG won last year it was more relief after I'd stuck up for him for a while on here against an onslaught of doubters!
I had my doubts originally when he was beat in the Feltham, especially when he supposedly like flat tracks.
Although he did cost me a fortune when he was a hurdler-he was the last leg in a massive treble when he came third behind Menorah and Cue Card.
I'd just love him to win one Gold Cup to get the respect he deserves given he's won 6 grade 2's and 5 grade 1's.
If he wins I think the debate on here will give me a little more satisfaction (no offence!). When SDG won last year it was more relief after I'd stuck up for him for a while on here against an onslaught of doubters!
To be fair Chief,his trainer said he thought he was better on flat tracks.
The formbook backs that up as well.
Hes current price based on form at Kempton and Haydock,and certainly not on his Cheltenham performance last year.
Personally much rather be looking at a fair few guaranteed stayers at much bigger prices than SC right now,but at least hes there to help me get bigger prices.
The formbook backs that up as well.
Hes current price based on form at Kempton and Haydock,and certainly not on his Cheltenham performance last year.
Personally much rather be looking at a fair few guaranteed stayers at much bigger prices than SC right now,but at least hes there to help me get bigger prices.
I accept that Budd, but aside from Lord Windermere I don't think there are any Cheltenham specialists who will improve pounds for the track.
The only other ones I can think of are Bobs Worth and The Giant Bolster, both of whom I don't think will win.
I don't know if any will come over from Ireland for the Argento?
As I've mentioned, a lot of the beaten ones in the Lexus have been beaten at Cheltenham as well.
Those that didnt run in the KG or the Lexus, like Holywell, Smad Place and Taquin de Seull will need to up their game on what they've done so far, and I'm yet to be convinced Many Clouds is a G1 horse off level weights.
Road to Riches is going into the unknown in terms of the track.
The only other ones I can think of are Bobs Worth and The Giant Bolster, both of whom I don't think will win.
I don't know if any will come over from Ireland for the Argento?
As I've mentioned, a lot of the beaten ones in the Lexus have been beaten at Cheltenham as well.
Those that didnt run in the KG or the Lexus, like Holywell, Smad Place and Taquin de Seull will need to up their game on what they've done so far, and I'm yet to be convinced Many Clouds is a G1 horse off level weights.
Road to Riches is going into the unknown in terms of the track.
Agree Well backed Conti every time it has raced over fences,still not sure re Cheltenham but is this race any better than last seasons ? Not sure really but is worthy fav is average race, Galway Plate winner 2nd fav ffs?
Not really sure Galway Plate winner has anything to do with it myself.
Think his form this season does though.
Horse has everything imo,jumps,travels,goes on any ground,stays 3m well, can be just off the pace or bowl along in front.No weakness that I can see.
Of course a horse can beat him on the day,but hes a well deserved current price imo.
Think his form this season does though.
Horse has everything imo,jumps,travels,goes on any ground,stays 3m well, can be just off the pace or bowl along in front.No weakness that I can see.
Of course a horse can beat him on the day,but hes a well deserved current price imo.
stevo1 03 Jan 15 20:56 Joined: 21 Oct 06 | Topic/replies: 2,653 | Blogger: stevo1's blog
Agree Well backed Conti every time it has raced over fences,still not sure re Cheltenham but is this race any better than last seasons ? Not sure really but is worthy fav is average race, Galway Plate winner 2nd fav ffs?
A Midlands National winner won the Gold Cup 3 years ago. So what's your point?
Agree Well backed Conti every time it has raced over fences,still not sure re Cheltenham but is this race any better than last seasons ? Not sure really but is worthy fav is average race, Galway Plate winner 2nd fav ffs?
A Midlands National winner won the Gold Cup 3 years ago. So what's your point?
I think this one will run all the way up to March.
I fully expect it to be between the top 2 in the market, and I expect Road to Riches to be a good bit better than anything in behind in the Lexus.
All of them have something to prove one way or another, which is why although it doesn't look like the best renewal, it keeps things interesting.
I fully expect it to be between the top 2 in the market, and I expect Road to Riches to be a good bit better than anything in behind in the Lexus.
All of them have something to prove one way or another, which is why although it doesn't look like the best renewal, it keeps things interesting.
Poor quality race cv,apart from Conti, Galway Plate winner 2nd fav as bad as Midlands National imo. then again Cool Ground and Nortons Coins who knows?
Not been good Gold Cups tbh recently, think it's very open based on last years race. I wouldn't be surprised no matter what won!!
I'm just gonna go with horses coming from off the pace, even Bobs Worth won by SDC & Long Run going blow for blow at the front, add to Lord Windermere and Synchronised. You could even say Long Run did similar to Bobs but with Denman and Kauto at it up front.
We also have to go a long way back to find a Gold Cup winner who didn't run in King George or Lexus. So it's Conti or one of the Lexus field to try narrow it down.
I'm just gonna go with horses coming from off the pace, even Bobs Worth won by SDC & Long Run going blow for blow at the front, add to Lord Windermere and Synchronised. You could even say Long Run did similar to Bobs but with Denman and Kauto at it up front.
We also have to go a long way back to find a Gold Cup winner who didn't run in King George or Lexus. So it's Conti or one of the Lexus field to try narrow it down.
Can't have Conti for GC, backed him last year, just doesn't seem to run to his potential at Cheltenham, can see Windermere drifting again, will be beaten in the Irish Hennessy (didn't think Davy was over hard on him in the Lexus), but seems to be one of those horses that thrives in March at Cheltenham, will be ridden to come into the race in the last 2 furlongs. For me Faugheen is a freak, if you can win over 3 miles in bottomless ground in Limerick, then hose in over 2m5f at Cheltenham and destroy a high class novice field at Punchestown over 2m, your a bit special. Dan Skelton made a comment about him after his first run at Ascot this year, Willie asked Dan to saddle him up, he said he'd never seen a horse so fat to run in a graded race, couldn't believe how big he was, there's a lot more to come, haven't had a bet ante post on him. For me if the TNO was good enough he would have won the race last year, when he was hampered was a long way out
Many Clouds has to improve significantly from the Hennessy but winners of that race have gone on to win the GC before. At level weights, Houblon des Obeaux should beat him but is he really a Gold Cup horse?
Must admit the Gold Cup makes zero appeal to me this year. Only thing I'm solid on is that Conti ain't a Cheltenham horse. The rest are much of a muchness. He would piss over these at Kempton but not sure round Cheltenham. Bobs Worth aint winning, he's regressing, Road to Riches doesn't float my boat, Holywell fell this season, can't see Lord Windermere winning again as much as I love the horse, just not that interesting a race for me this year.
Interesting write up CV, i was on TNO last year and have watched the race several times since and am still not entirely sure he would have won. It was heartbreaking not to know for sure considering how well he ran on right at the end but maybe that's just because he is more of a stayer and couldn't live with the pace when it really mattered. I would wholeheartedly agree its between the big three though, none of the others look in the same league although if it did come up really soft I wouldn't completely rule out HF off a slowish pace if we got maybe 6/7 runner CH. Hopefully they all make it as it looks a cracking race at the moment and is probably my favourite of the festival.
I don't think TNO is a stayer, I think he's simply a horse who has one very good trick - he can really quicken up off a slow pace.
Look back at his neptune win- they went very slowly and then he sprinted away from them up the hill.
For me he lost the race last year due to being taken out of his comfort Zone when the tempo went up as they started coming down the hill. With both Faugheen and Jezki that is highly likely to happen again this year and he won't be able to cope with it.
His best chance of winning bar far is a slowly run race which turns into a sprint for home.
Look back at his neptune win- they went very slowly and then he sprinted away from them up the hill.
For me he lost the race last year due to being taken out of his comfort Zone when the tempo went up as they started coming down the hill. With both Faugheen and Jezki that is highly likely to happen again this year and he won't be able to cope with it.
His best chance of winning bar far is a slowly run race which turns into a sprint for home.
oh I thought he lost the race when OC (rip) fell, and he lost around 6 lengths
Don't get me wrong, that didn't help and it certainly clouds the issue somewhat.
However, my take is that he was back on terms with them when the tempo went up and he couldn't cope. He then ran on past a HF who for the first time ever pulled up stumps (and who wasn't right for the back end of last season) and on towards a MTOY who had pulled like a steam train the whole way round.
I'll admit that this opinion then only leaves one position regarding zezki - that he wasn't a good winner of the race and he won it by the race falling apart around him for various reasons.
However, my take is that he was back on terms with them when the tempo went up and he couldn't cope. He then ran on past a HF who for the first time ever pulled up stumps (and who wasn't right for the back end of last season) and on towards a MTOY who had pulled like a steam train the whole way round.
I'll admit that this opinion then only leaves one position regarding zezki - that he wasn't a good winner of the race and he won it by the race falling apart around him for various reasons.
For me he lost the race last year due to being taken out of his comfort Zone when the tempo went up as they started coming down the hill
I don,t buy this tbh, races aren't won coming down the hill, they put you in a decent position yes, its whats happening at the end what counts and even in 2 mile races you have to stay...
I don,t buy this tbh, races aren't won coming down the hill, they put you in a decent position yes, its whats happening at the end what counts and even in 2 mile races you have to stay...
However, my take is that he was back on terms with them
from a virtual standstill he got back on terms, do you not think that is somewhat significant?
from a virtual standstill he got back on terms, do you not think that is somewhat significant?
It's all about opinions and these threads would be rather boring if we all agreed.
He does have by some way the speediest dosage profile of the past 10 neptune winners as well which is perhaps leading me to my opinion that he's a fast horse rather than one blessed with stamina
He does have by some way the speediest dosage profile of the past 10 neptune winners as well which is perhaps leading me to my opinion that he's a fast horse rather than one blessed with stamina
Regarding him betting back on terms and its significance, that's the big unknown. He wasn't rushed and got back at a steady pace before the race really began but we'll just never know
he wasn't rushed no mate but you don't catch horses up by running slower than them 
Has to have made a significant difference in where he would have finished,losing that amount of ground that he then has to make up. TNO will always finish a 2m race strongly as he stays further,and if he's there at the last he must go very close. It really all hinges on how good Faugheen is for me,and we probably won't know that till after the race!!! Jezki and TNO ought to be fairly close on the basis thatMTOY has nearly dead heated with both!! It's really tricky working out the race with what happened with TNO last year and the unknown about Faugheen,but bloody intriguing and very exciting. Just hope they all get there!!!
TNO debate has a very similar look to it as the Zarkandar debate did a couple of seasons back, both horses were/are coming into the race off the back of a strong staying on performance the previous year, with the supporters claiming that if the chosen horse can keep in touch through the race then his staying ability will prove to win the day.
I was opposed to Zarkandar and I am opposed to TNO, Zarkandar did stay in touch the next year it's true, but his finishing kick was hugely compromised because he had used to much effort up in keeping tabvvs with the pace that ROR had gone.
The truth of the matter is that although TNO did get severely hampered he had already begun to feel the effects of the strong early pace without having been in the thick of it, I believe that if he hadn't have been hampered the sum total would still have seen him adrift and having to stay on late on.
If this year he is ridden with a greater emphasis of holding his position the effect on him late on will be to see him struggle to get home.
It's not such a simple case of a horse staying further...keep him in touch and he'll therefore outstay them late on....he's a slower horse and the effort to go the pace throughout will hurt him....just as it did to Zarkandar two years ago.
I was opposed to Zarkandar and I am opposed to TNO, Zarkandar did stay in touch the next year it's true, but his finishing kick was hugely compromised because he had used to much effort up in keeping tabvvs with the pace that ROR had gone.
The truth of the matter is that although TNO did get severely hampered he had already begun to feel the effects of the strong early pace without having been in the thick of it, I believe that if he hadn't have been hampered the sum total would still have seen him adrift and having to stay on late on.
If this year he is ridden with a greater emphasis of holding his position the effect on him late on will be to see him struggle to get home.
It's not such a simple case of a horse staying further...keep him in touch and he'll therefore outstay them late on....he's a slower horse and the effort to go the pace throughout will hurt him....just as it did to Zarkandar two years ago.
I dont think he is a slower horse,think he has a serious turn of foot.personally would not even begin to compare with zarkandar.
his run in the xmas hurdle suggests hes pretty quick,and coupled with his staying ability,will be well handy for a c hurdle.
for me its just a case of whether hes better than faugheen,cos he looks pretty quick,and he can stay further as well.
no real way of knowing that before the race.
his run in the xmas hurdle suggests hes pretty quick,and coupled with his staying ability,will be well handy for a c hurdle.
for me its just a case of whether hes better than faugheen,cos he looks pretty quick,and he can stay further as well.
no real way of knowing that before the race.
If you look at it literally,hes lost what 5 or 6 lengths?, and got beat 2-3 lengths.
Had he not have to go a bit quicker than he wanted to earlier in the race to make ground up he would obviously had more at the crucial time.
People are thinking it did not make much difference cos visually he looked to make it up steadily,thats not the case.He lost significant ground,had to go quicker to make it up as its a 2m speed race,and then lost by half the distance he lost.
Looking at last years race only increases his chances imo.
Had he not have to go a bit quicker than he wanted to earlier in the race to make ground up he would obviously had more at the crucial time.
People are thinking it did not make much difference cos visually he looked to make it up steadily,thats not the case.He lost significant ground,had to go quicker to make it up as its a 2m speed race,and then lost by half the distance he lost.
Looking at last years race only increases his chances imo.
completely agree Budd... and, if anything, TNO's jumping is much better this season and STD has matured a lot as a jockey. Faugheen the main danger.. but I do worry about the noises coming from Mullins that HF is "our top hurdler" etc..
It's one of those where you can argue both ways regarding TNO last season.
My take is that he was out paced when they quickened up going down the hill. Yes he did lose ground when Our Conor fell but surely he would have tired up the run in if it was down to using his energy to make up the lost round. Yet he charged up the hill.
I can see both arguments and it all depends what side of the fence you are.
I'm hoping for some crazy day of the race offers on Faugheen. I think Walsh will have time to complete The Times crossword as he strolls home on the bridle. This will win the next three champion hurdles.
My take is that he was out paced when they quickened up going down the hill. Yes he did lose ground when Our Conor fell but surely he would have tired up the run in if it was down to using his energy to make up the lost round. Yet he charged up the hill.
I can see both arguments and it all depends what side of the fence you are.
I'm hoping for some crazy day of the race offers on Faugheen. I think Walsh will have time to complete The Times crossword as he strolls home on the bridle. This will win the next three champion hurdles.
my take is after losing so much ground and then making it up it would have been crazy for sam to go with them again when they quickened down the hill, had he not been hampered then he would not have had to make up that ground and so could have stalked them down the hill, its all opinions lets hope there are no incidents this time around....
I change my mind just about every time I watch the race as to whether the hampering early on was a genuine excuse for TNO. I am one of the horse's biggest fans but on balance I think it's odd that he is about half the price of the one that beat him last year with that doubt at least in the back of everyone's mind.
It really has to be a genuine excuse if you lose that amount of ground in top 2m hurdle race,really cannot see the argument.
He had to use up more energy than the others cos of the incident,energy the others are conserving at the same time.
Hes come home well cos he stays further and not gone with them down the hill.Had Sam pushed him on down the hill he would not have finished the race so well.Whatever he had done he could not win the race,he lost too much earlier.
He had to use up more energy than the others cos of the incident,energy the others are conserving at the same time.
Hes come home well cos he stays further and not gone with them down the hill.Had Sam pushed him on down the hill he would not have finished the race so well.Whatever he had done he could not win the race,he lost too much earlier.
im surprised people are doubting the effect the hampering had on the horse.
the new one almost always chases the leaders using his cruising speed and quickens off it well. in the biggest race of the season, he is badly hampered and drops to rear. completely taken out of his rhythm. he would have to have been a near 180 horse to cruise back into contention, make up all the ground and still win.
i think comparisons with zarkandar are way off.
the new one almost always chases the leaders using his cruising speed and quickens off it well. in the biggest race of the season, he is badly hampered and drops to rear. completely taken out of his rhythm. he would have to have been a near 180 horse to cruise back into contention, make up all the ground and still win.
i think comparisons with zarkandar are way off.
^ Agree with much of that, and for a long time, I was utterly convinced that he was an unlucky loser.
What still bothers me, from the multiple times I have watched the re-run, is that at no point between the hampering and the top of the hill did Sam get worried on him, so I'm not sure there is much of an argument that he was taken out of his comfort zone to make the distance up.
Completely agree that Sam didn't push him as they came down the hill, but the gap goes from very little to quite significant in a few strides, and if I'm really honest, despite loving the horse to bits, I'm a little worried that he didn't keep closer tabs on them. Would it not be fair to say that an Istabraq or a speed horse like My Tent Of Yours would have tanked down the hill irrespective of his jockey's decision not to hassle him at that point. It shouldn't take much out of any champion to quicken on the downhill run if they hit that point in a rhythm (which I honestly think he was in).
What still bothers me, from the multiple times I have watched the re-run, is that at no point between the hampering and the top of the hill did Sam get worried on him, so I'm not sure there is much of an argument that he was taken out of his comfort zone to make the distance up.
Completely agree that Sam didn't push him as they came down the hill, but the gap goes from very little to quite significant in a few strides, and if I'm really honest, despite loving the horse to bits, I'm a little worried that he didn't keep closer tabs on them. Would it not be fair to say that an Istabraq or a speed horse like My Tent Of Yours would have tanked down the hill irrespective of his jockey's decision not to hassle him at that point. It shouldn't take much out of any champion to quicken on the downhill run if they hit that point in a rhythm (which I honestly think he was in).
I really am still very much on the fence on this one, but think people remember events a little differently depending on which side they sit.
If you watch the race back and actually note down the distance TNO is off the leaders before the event and after it, and then do the same at the top of the hill and after the second last, there's not a whole lot in it. It's not like he is pushed along to make up 7 or 8 lengths after the incident.
If you watch the race back and actually note down the distance TNO is off the leaders before the event and after it, and then do the same at the top of the hill and after the second last, there's not a whole lot in it. It's not like he is pushed along to make up 7 or 8 lengths after the incident.
Ha!
Just rewatched it again, and he probably does lose about 7 lengths! So maybe I'm now back on the original side of the fence again
Still a little concerned about the speed angle coming down the hill but less so than 5 minutes ago... It's only January too. How many times will I have rewatched this before the 10th March?
Just rewatched it again, and he probably does lose about 7 lengths! So maybe I'm now back on the original side of the fence again
Still a little concerned about the speed angle coming down the hill but less so than 5 minutes ago... It's only January too. How many times will I have rewatched this before the 10th March?
I think it fair to say,he lost 5-6 lengths and the jockey got him close enough as he could at the end,getting beat about 2 and a half lengths.
sam just didnt want to panic. he did the right thing, he has it in his head after getting beat by at fishers cross that the horse only quickens once and he needs to time that burst of speed, even more so in the champion hurdle. he may have made up the ground and not been far behind the leaders, making it seem as if he was outpaced when shaken up, but i'd wager that the hampering affected him in as much as that when the taps were turned, the extra exertion to make up the ground (which he wouldnt have had to do had he not been hampered, told.
yep, summed up well wicket.
Just cannot afford to lose that amount of ground in a Churdle, its as simple as that.
Just cannot afford to lose that amount of ground in a Churdle, its as simple as that.
im faugheens biggest fan and what i find funny is that people say if faugheen makes a mistake like he did in neptune he won't win CH, yet they also say that the hampering might not have affected the new one! makes no sense
One other slightly devil's advocate-like possibility is that, seeing as TNO did fly up the hill, perhaps Sam could have gone earlier and won the race.
I'm not suggesting he was at fault as I think 99.9% of people would have wanted him to let TNO get back into his rhythm before asking for everything, but on watching the race yet again, I can't help wonder where he would have finished if he'd asked him a bit sooner.
Tough, tough job riding these championship races!
I'm not suggesting he was at fault as I think 99.9% of people would have wanted him to let TNO get back into his rhythm before asking for everything, but on watching the race yet again, I can't help wonder where he would have finished if he'd asked him a bit sooner.
Tough, tough job riding these championship races!
he certainly loses all rhythm in the race after the faller and he also jumps poorly right handed after the incident...tricky to be sure and the front 2 really accelerated around the home turn and down towards the last when twistin davies just sat before really asking him down to the last...the race was over and he was catching tiring rivals who had put the pace/speed to the race, i have no doubt he would of had every chance but it also has to be remembered in the heat of the race he wasn't being asked, this is the only thing i am struggling with
my initial thought straight after the race was that TNO was a very unlucky loser and i still think that. i think he would've won comfortably. i think he is a 170 horse, but i think faugheen could be 175+
The New One was always liable to throw in the odd dodgy leap last year - his last hurdle blunder against MTOY in the Christmas Hurdle was a prime example. I remember people were rightly using it as a negative going into last years Champion (Obviously what happened in the Champion was not his fault).
This year, I feel he's improved his jumping quite a bit. With a clear round of jumping, I'm sure he would have won the Christmas Hurdle, and because I think he jumps better now, I actually think he is a better horse than last year. Faugheen, imo, is now more likely to throw in a dodgy jump than TNO.
I also thought he was a relentless galloper, who didn't have a particularly big turn of foot. However, the way he quickened away from Vaniteux last time out changed my mind on that as well.
Overall, I have no idea whether he'll beat Faugheen, but I'm pretty confident of him finishing ahead of Jezki.
This year, I feel he's improved his jumping quite a bit. With a clear round of jumping, I'm sure he would have won the Christmas Hurdle, and because I think he jumps better now, I actually think he is a better horse than last year. Faugheen, imo, is now more likely to throw in a dodgy jump than TNO.
I also thought he was a relentless galloper, who didn't have a particularly big turn of foot. However, the way he quickened away from Vaniteux last time out changed my mind on that as well.
Overall, I have no idea whether he'll beat Faugheen, but I'm pretty confident of him finishing ahead of Jezki.
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