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Cheltenham Festival
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Peace & Co
Peace & Co
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Sorry bud, been utterly swamped in work this past month and haven't got to banter about horses much. Site has become just posting bets no comment about why
 I've a Zark write up alleged and I'll post it now in next few mins. Might even write an essay on Peace & Co too |
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 You ok mate, its good you on here more often. |
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buddeliea 15 Dec 14 17:19
Madness backing a horse for the Triumph at 6/1 at this stage...complete madness. We don't even know the opposition yet,time after time year after year the Triumph horses are not all seen till the new year, and sometimes later.I don't care how visually impressive a 3yr old is over hurdles,and theres a lot more to do to be labelled a potential superstar...but having said that I guess a lot of horses are potential superstars, just not many turn out to be. Good luck though CV and anyone else going mad about him, I shall watch with interest as to how hes looking later in the season. As for betting,no Triumph wagers for me in December, plenty of other races where I have more of an idea on the likely runners is what I will be concentrating on.....for now. I was waiting for this one to come out; as it inevitably does. Some stats surround that oft quoted nugget of 'info'. Listed below are the last 6 winners and the month of their first hurdle run that season: 2014: Tiger Roll - November 2013: Our Conor - November 2012: Countrywide Flame - July 2011: Zarkandar - February 2010: Solditano - February 2009: Zaynar - December 2008: Celestial Halo - December 2007: Katchit - September 2006: Detroit City - December 2005: Penzance - January Only 3 of the last 10 winners of the Triumph Hurdle had their first run of the season in the New Year. The moral of the story being not to be put off one just because it has run before New Years Day! |
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From a betting perspective, you wouldn't have backed any of them at the start of December though? If anyone did, you've got a better eye than me.
There's nothing wrong with backing one in the week up to Cheltenham who had their first run pre Christmas, but with a week to go before the race, you'll have all known form to hand, you will have seen who will likely line up, who'll be in the Fred Winter etc. My point, and I think Budd's is, is that now you are kind of backing blind in that you probably can only predict three or four of the Triumph field right now. No one will be surprised if Peace and Co wins, but at least backing nearer the time, you'll have a fuller picture of the shape of the race. |
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CV,from a punting point of view I like to have a good idea of the likely opposition to my fancy. With the Triumph normally you cannot know that till fairly late on,as I was saying all the Triumph horses are not seen till the new year and some as you point out are not seen till Feb. on that basis I don't like to bet on the race in December,unless I spot something at a big price, then I might take a chance. Yes the winner can be seen earlier as you also point out,of course that happens, but my preference is to wait.
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Pretty much spot on chief
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chief, just a bit of mischief on my part really. Not sure about you but I have heard and read many times that the best triumph horses don't come out until the new year. I've probably even said it myself at some point in the past. Just illustrating that it's actually rarely the case.
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I understand the point wellchief and have made it myself before (after I backed Sam Winner and Zark only ran in Feb)
But this isn't a normal year. This isn't a normal horse. His odds will be kaput if he wins impressively in January which lets us who are on lay off our stakes at crazy short prices hopefully. He was 10/1 and 8/1 post race when bookies put odds up and now he's 4/1. The hype will go on, when more people watch the race he will shorten more. Starchitect is one to follow nto for sure. he was a good way clear of the 3rd placed horse who's from ties in well with Hargam. I'd put him away until the Fred Winter now if I were McCain. |
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If any horse can come out between now and then and put up a siilar or better performance then fair enough. I don't think it will happen.
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Each to their own. He's a normal horse as far as I am concerned after watching his run. Impressive,yes but he's now 4/1. Value imo is all gone and well done to anyone on at nice odds. Backing him at 4.......no thanks, my reasons as above,
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buddeliea 15 Dec 14 21:24 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 10,652 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
CV,from a punting point of view I like to have a good idea of the likely opposition to my fancy. With the Triumph normally you cannot know that till fairly late on Oh I'd be the same for this race almost every year. But I can't imagine I'll see anything for a long long time or more than likely, never - that will impress me in a trial for the Triumph that comes close to the performance Peace & Co put in. So what was the point in waiting? Timeform have said only Binocular 156p & Our Conor 165p have posted better Juvenile figures and both did so in the spring at the festivals (Aintree & Chelts), not on their 2nd run ever!! I'm sure in a Triumph Peace & Co will be allowed his head and so can improve considerably on that performance not to mention he will be set to peak fitness wise for March. I was trying to get on for the Triumph during the race on Sat as I saw Jacob take 2 pulls as they turned into the straight. (B0ylesp0rts are usually so stupid/slow the often leave odds up for Cheltenham during trials and are always slow to change odds after, but can only get limited on). As I tweeted I got on asap post race. He's just something super special. |
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No probs Glossy. To be honest I'm surprised so many had their first run early, as I usually looked to races like the Adonis in the New Year.
Definitely an interesting thread anyway as it's certainly divided opinion!! I'd love to see another Our Conor style Triumph performance from Peace and Co, Kalkir, or any of them really - can only be good for the game. No matter who wins it this year, it'll take something pretty special to do an Our Conor. |
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Fair do,s CV. I do actually hope you are right,and I ain't saying you are wrong,I'm just naturally cautious with 3yr olds., and very cautious with the Triumph!! If you are correct I shall probably end up with no bet and just watch the new superstar hose up. I can think of worse things in life.
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buddeliea 15 Dec 14 21:36 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 10,653 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Each to their own. He's a normal horse as far as I am concerned after watching his run. Ah C'mon man. Normal horse!! What on earth was normal with probably being in the top 3 in training in speed and slickness over a hurdle on your british debut!! I mean he could be better than Hurricane Fly over them. Whats normal in posting a hugely impressive time in 3rd gear under heavy restrain. Normal about Timeform saying only 2 performances by a juvenile have been better in recent times. I can understand not wanting to back a Triumph Hurdle horse in December at odds of 6 or 5/1 etc.. just as a matter of principle. Taking that stance will be more profitable in the long run, no doubt imo. But that wasn't a normal debut, from a normal horse. No way. Well to my eyes anyway  |
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Have to say, I fully understand the caution of both bud and wellchief when it comes to these juveniles and the Triumph. I'd normally share it and as I said, caution is always the soundest play long term in this race.
I hope we've a good winner of the Champion Hurdle this year and I can get on Peace & Co before he runs in the Triumph |
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Yeh,ok , was probably better than that, but time will tell if the rating is accurate
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Good thread by the way, could be the thread of the festival.
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Have to say I'm with CV... Was astounded by the performance!.. Unfortunately I only saw a repeat on Sunday otherwise would've dived in..
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I just love the sport when horses like this come along. I've had my heros like Moscow Flyer, Kauto Star & Hurricane Fly. Sprinter Sacre was a total joy to see in the flesh. I just hope I've a new one to follow and see at racetracks for many years to come.
Just as the career of probably my all time favourite horse is coming to a close, this fella comes along. |
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I hope we've a good winner of the Champion Hurdle this year and I can get on Peace & Co before he runs in the Triumph Laugh
that was my thoughts cv  |
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The performance of this horse on Saturday was sensational. The 9/2 won't last much longer, surely looks an each way banker for the triumph even at this early stage?!
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Each way? Each way? Are we not men? Do we not crave the excitement of going balls deep and regaling anyone who will listen in later life? Ths is the one gentlemen. Time to bet like fiends. Bugler. Sound the charge.
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For everyone slaggin Cv off,the clock doesn't lie,it will take a very good horse to beat peace and co,5-1 about a superstar is a great price...5-1 ffs
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As far as I can see I don't see anyone slagging off CV,just a differing of opinions as to how to approach betting this early on the Triumph. Yes,if you think this horse is a superstar already then you are justified in going in now.......I don't, and would rather look at other races with my cash at this stage. I have no problem with missing out if he proves value now and ends up 1/2 and romps home,good luck to all that did back him in December.i can still enjoy a great horse if indeed that's what happens.
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I enjoyed watching our Conor,even though I had no money on him,it was a highlight of the festival. Plenty of other races though. Yes I would like to have a nice voucher like CV has,but I don't,I missed out . I am not prepared to back him now at price he is. He runs and that's that. Who knows I might find a horse to back against him,still plenty of time,if not just watch without a bet.
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5/1 9/2 might be a skinny price on what he has achieved and could be a potential huge over reaction from us as punters and indeed the bookies. But as they say, that's the gamble!
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For those interested in ratings:
https://www.timeform.com/racing/Articles/Ratings_Update_Peace_envoy_can_bring_Henderson_further_honours |
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To be saying a horse is something special after 1 run in the UK as a 3 year old I think is setting yourself up for a fall, he looked good but as so often the words superstar and special etc are throwing about too much, let the horse win at 1 of the big festivals and win the style of sprinter or our Connor did before he's classed as that!
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Some common sense prevails.
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Yes mandingo that's the gamble, and also it has to be considered that the Supreme may be his selected race, adding to the gamble. Nice weight allowance and trainer has run Binocular in the race so certainly a possibility.
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Yes Budd I am sure connections will consider it. As at present no outstanding horse imo for that race at present.
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Well if hes anywhere near as good as some are saying and with the weight allowance, he would p1ss the supreme.
20 odd on here,best have some I reckon. |
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I want odds for the 2016 CH has anybody got any yet?
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What weight allowance would he get in the Champion Hurdle? No MTOY for Hendo. Just saying!
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jeez we are now talking of champion hurdles after one run
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Remember that Binocular went for the Supreme in the year that JP had Franchoek, a leading player in the Triumph. Unless Top Notch also proves very good on his debut, it's unlikely that a similar situation will occur.
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Binocular would have hosed up in that Triumph imo, based on what he did to Celestial Halo a few weeks later at Aintree
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A 4yr old in the Churdle!!!!.... Bl00dy hell!!!!!! Well Hendo does have Hargam as well, but I see what you say Joist re Franchoek. |
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Alleged,
The way this is going, any price for the next few Churdles aint gonna be very generous mate. |
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Hargam doesn't really come into it though Budd, my point about Franchoek was that he was JP owned as well as Binocular, hence the splitting them up. Hargam and Peace And Co are separately owned and thus less likely to have to split them up, but if Top Notch (same ownership as Peace And Co) is good on debut then that makes PAC to the Supreme a more possible proposition. Possibly!
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