Cheltenham Festival
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***ARKLE 2015***
***ARKLE 2015***
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Yes Foyles. Very pleased with Gilgamboa yesterday.
I hope Vautour returns unharmed after yesterday mishap. Why do you think JLT Budd? Surely it's the Arkle or Cross Country. |
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Well I know the owner has done will in the cross country over the years, but I doubt he will be putting Gilgamboa in the race just yet
 Yeh, I do think JLT mate, just feel he looked really comfortable over yesterdays trip and feel around 2 a half is his optimum.He won a heavy ground race over 2m 4f as well. Mind you trainer has apparently said Irish Arkle next so it may well depend on that, and I may well be wrong. I think the Arkle will end up a complete wash out this season with UDS p1ssing it-hope im wrong though. |
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Absolute crime if Gilgamboa isn't in what could well be a sub-standard Arkle. He's a very smooth traveller over 2 miles and form over more than 2 miles is completely standard for Arkle winners isn't it?
I think 14/1 Arkle is still a bit big, he's a clearly incredibly smart and it's a shame we didn't see his full effort in the Supreme. |
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Absolutely Joist, the Arkle needs him.With Vautour likely imo to go JLT and Josses Hill needing to improve his jumping we certainly need as many as we can right now - race is heading towards a possible one horse race if we aint careful....and he could fall with his style of racing!!
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I can't believe Josses Hill is shorter in the betting than Gilgamboa. He tried to hurdle his fences and couldn't arch his back to jump properly. I think the 14's is still a good bet.
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Yeah I put on the Gilgamboa thread that its been a while since JP went into the race with a live chance. 2010 and Cee Bee probably.
Recently he's had the likes of Tap Night and Rock Noir, so no real chance of ever winning. If the likes of Vautour, Valseur Lido, Apache Stronghold and even Saphir de Reu run in the JLT, the Arkle looks an easier option anyway. |
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Although I am pocket talking, and wouldn't be too surprised if he lined up in the JLT.
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Josses Hill is entered on Friday and Saturday in novice chases. They will be hoping for a much improved performance from the horse to put himself back into the Arkle picture. He is very highly thought of by connections and had pleased them with his schooling. However he looked very awkward at Ascot and was soundly beaten by Ptit Zig. Henderson surprisingly was very encouraged by the run. England haven't got any novices yet that have looked liked being Arkle players, as Ptit Zig is heading to the JLT, so let's hope Josses can win well this week.
The Irish Arkle at the end of the month looks incredibly strong. PP0wer have priced up the race. Un De Sceaux heads the betting at 11/10. He fell on debut but before that had jumped really well. Again he jumped well when getting off the mark the last time and looks very exciting. A lot has been made of his jumping and I've read that that is a reason not to back him for March. I could not disagree more. I wouldnt back a horse if I didn't think it was good enough, but wouldn't be put off backing a horse that can win but "might" fall. Any horse can fall. My biggest concern for him at Cheltenham is that he looks such a speed horse, whether he will get up the hill. Anyway his run in the Irish Arkle is the first time we get to see him tested and I'm looking forward to seeing how good he is. Let's hope he runs. Vautour is also entered here. 6/4. I can excuse his last run as he made a hell of a blunder at xmas and in that heavy ground it would be very hard to get back into a rhythm. He is still a very high class prospect but having always thought he would run in The Arkle in March I'm now starting to doubt it. The pricing by the books and the Walsh factor of wanting to win every race looks as though he could go JLT. Gilgamboa 5/2. Really pleased with him over Christmas and the ante post bet is still alive. It was over 2 1/2 miles that day but that does not bother me. Lots of novices, either hurdling or chasing, run over different trips. It's a must sometimes to gain experience. Bolger had stated he really didn't want to throw him into a Grade 1 on just his second start so this was the logical race. He travelled and jumped beautifully and beat a half decent horse whilst giving her lots of weight. Clarcam 7/2. A stunning victory at Christmas. Won as he liked by 17L. Again he will be receiving 10lbs in the Irish Arkle and I'm surprised he isn't shorter in the betting. He could not have impressed any more the last time. He won't get the weight allowance come March so will need to win well here to be a big player come Cheltenham. Judging by what we saw at Christmas I think he can certainly mix it up at levels. He will receive 7lbs later in this year if he comes back for the Punchestown festival. A bizarre system!!!!! Ante post bets aside, I'm hoping Josses Hill turns out to be as good as they think he is and we have 4 or 5 good horses turn up in March for this exciting race. |
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I really hope those four make the Irish Arkle. Will potentially be better than the cheltenham version....
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Definitely CCM - cracking race in prospect.
Un De Sceaux, Vautour, Gilgamboa, Clarcam and Apache Stronghold all together - I hope they all stand their ground. I wouldn't be surprised if that race produced the Arkle and JLT winner, but not necessarily the obvious two. |
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be very surprised if mullins pitches vautour in that company so soon after the last run
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what is almost certain is un de sceaux will probably dodge the race in favour of another egg and spoon race
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make it sound like the horse makes the entries
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like the horse is bothered whose 20 lengths behind him
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can't remember the horse in a good race can you then buddeliea???
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Don't want Apache Stronghold in the Irish Arkle as he should be heading for the RSA!
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Depends what you call a good race,but anyway that's hardly his fault.
Fact is he will be way out in front whatever race hes in. Only time he will see them is of they manage to catch him,or pass him on the deck!! |
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Apache in JlT Tory, imo.
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I'd be surprised if he doesn't Wicketd
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Yep, defintiely JLT sorry.
That line, that the race could produce the Arkle and JLT winner, I was thinking along the lines of Un De Sceaux, Vautour and Gilgamboa could all win the Arkle, and Vautour, Gilgamboa and Apache Stronghold could all win the JLT. Sorry Clarcam fans! Yeah, I expect a couple to drop out, but imo the Irish novice chasers look a cut above in the Arkle and JLT this year imo, with the exception of Ptit Zig in the JLT. |
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why CCM?
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I think Clarcam is being underrated hugely. He has been the best novice chaser this season on the book and by the visual impression he has created in my book, and it's an insult that he's the longest-priced of the four mentioned above.
He has of course been getting the allowances, which he won't to any great degree at Cheltenham, but he is the likeliest winner of the Irish Arkle I think. I actually really fancy him for Cheltenham too - think he jumps and travels better than anything we've seen so far (Gilgamboa has been faultless but in weaker company). |
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Vautour smashed him Tom with 12lb more on his back!!
Clarcam ran well lto but Vautour made a horrendous error. Personally think Mullins know one of his will beat Clarcam in the Arkle. |
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dont think clarcam was fit to, or ridden to win on first chase start though
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well ok, Perhaps I will reserve judgement till they meet again, sounds fair I guess.
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Clarcam must have a hell of a chance receiving 10lb I think. I thought he would be favourite for this.
It's crazy how is getting all this weight yet runs off levels at Cheltenham. |
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Yep, does look like JLT for AS but, and this is contentious, I think DP out sprinted him in the Topaz and the sectionals actually back that theory up. Therefore, and based on overall profile, I think his next race should be 3m then onto the RSA. I haven't backed him for anything by the way
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Can't see why they are running Apache over the two miles to be honest.
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Despite claiming not to have backed him, Budd is balls deep on Un De Sceaux imo
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Because he has only had one bad run, with clear excuses. I can't see them lowering their radar because of that. He is the owners top novice chaser, and he will want to contend the top races.
This will also be invaluable for them with regards to Cheltenham and the best target for their horses. |
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Have to say UDS is one of the most exciting elements of the Festival. I think he's possibly the worst value I've seen at this year's meeting so far though, and I say that with every respect for his raw ability. I will not be backing him but will have my heart in my mouth watching him tearing away at those Cheltenham fences.
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Was that in response to me Catch?
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I can honestly say I have not a penny on UDS joist, why on earth would I lie? I was quiet open about backing him for the Churdle last year.
If you read my posts on the horse, its all about the excitement of a frontrunner in a top 2m race at my favourite sporting event. I do stick up for him a lot on various threads, cos I feel hes wrongly criticised just cos his connections have not let him do the talking on the track in proper races thus far. Now it looks like he will get the chance, I feel people should stop having a pop at the horse and wait till hes had the chance to show exactly how good he is Should be soon. Ive backed Josses Hill and Gilgamboa for the Arkle. I would like UDS on my side so I can cheer him on and win money,but when he was bigger odds I really had my doubts about what they would do with him,and remembering him skipping the festival last year. Now it looks pretty clear he will be running,ive missed the prices. I shall find a way of backing him though,not sure to what degree or how but I will have a profit it he wins. |
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I was only speaking tongue-in-cheek Budd, just in regard to how quick you are to defend him whenever he's criticised!
You say "wrongly criticised"...but surely, "fairly criticised" is more accurate? After all, it's undeniable that he hasn't really beaten a Grade 1 horse and so when faced with 5/2, people are fair to use that as a reason not to find him an attractive proposition, or indeed to extrapolate further and present a case that with his current form, he's no Arkle winner in waiting. It's always frustrating to miss the price on one that you ultimately do want to back - for the last two weeks, a good friend of mine has been doubling every single bet he has with Peace And Co for the Triumph, in order to boost Peace And Co's price |
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Sorry brandy, that was to Wicketd
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Thing is Joist he is criticised for winning races by a distance,cos he's not faced a top horse yet.REason I think it unfair is it ain't his fault,so have a go at the trainer is what I say. YEs his price is pretty short,again though that ain't his fault. I've not backed him cos I don't like the price so I agree,so haven a go at the bookies then. UDS has done absolutely nowt wrong in his career thus far,apart from falling in hid first chase,he's a very exciting horse and wil now be given the chance to prove how good he is and at what level he is at. So criticise away when hes proved a failure,but until then wait till the horse is actually given the chance to show what he can do.
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I know what you mean Budd, I was quite vocal in my support of Peddlers Cross on here when he was a novice chaser when he'd won his couple of egg and spoon races round Bangor. He was ultimately found out over fences (still one of my favourite horses though), but I couldn't get my head round why people were critisizing the horse, for jumping and winning well.
Should be having a go at connections because the horse can only beat what is put in front of him. As an Apache JLT backer, it doesn't bother me him running in this. I don't think he'll win, because he'll get done for speed by one of them, but I think this will be a nice prep before stepping back up in distance for the festival. Benefficient won this and then the Jewson in his next race (although I admit he was a 2m - 2.5m horse, where Apache is 2.5m - 3m). |
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I think if uds is allowed to take his chance in the arkle it will be one of the bookies major push outs morning of the race for a 15-30 minute period. In fact he screams the perfect type of fav they love to offer huge inflated odds on morning of the first day or the greatest show on turf!
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although I have not backed uds it will be fascinating to see him in the arkle at the festival , he is going to blaze off in front and it will be heart in mouth time for backers at every fence , the problem is how much rope will he be allowed ? could a a spoiler i.e golden freeze carvills hill scenario be employed to try to race with him or hassle him up front ?
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Have you not been impressed with his jumping Foyle.
I feel I'm on my own when I say I think he looks very natural at fencing. Jumps well and looks athletic. Great work the other night by the way. You look in good form this year. |