Cheltenham Festival
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***ARKLE 2015***
***ARKLE 2015***
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....which just goes to prove there's no such thing as 'value', just 'my value' and 'your value'.
I wouldn't take 4/1, 3 months before the race because I can't really intuit 'value' at such a relatively low price. Fair play to cufcno1 though if he's wading in this early and gets to look 12 shades of smug if it does indeed line up at 4/6 on the day. |
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Quite right rtb. Value is a personal judgement. One might reason that with question marks at the moment over UDS (is he a Cheltenham horse, will he cope with the likely spring ground?, Josses Hill (difficult to train)and Gods Own (Champion Chase)that 4/1 about Vautour is actually very fair. Not an argument that I would make but suspect that is exactly where cufno1 is coming from!
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Agree this could go off about evens on the day.. A little worried he may be stepped up in trip to the JLT especially if UDS is running in it though.. That is stopping me from having a decent bet.
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That's how I see it Laying. Just can't risk anything when Mullins has decent options and can swap their races. Although Ricci horses do seem to get preference.
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Just can't see Vautour running in jlt,imagine if the ground is soft on the Thursday,the 2 and a half mile takes some getting on the new course,don't think they would risk that happening,maybe a little chance of queen mother,as for the value aspect I've got about 250 on at prices in between 4s and 7s,if it don't turn up in the arkle it's like having a loser on the day,nothing more !
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Clarcam franking the form for Vautour !
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The English form wouldn't look terribly strong based on the King Henry VII Chase today. Vibrato Valtat looks to be improving but couldn't be sure of the form being upheld either.
Right now looks between the Mullins pair, Vautour and Un De Sceaux. I expect both to run in the Arkle. Both are in different ownerships and both look top class 2 milers. |
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Have to agree on Vautour. Horse looks very special in the same mould as Sprinter Sacre. Don't buy into the scare mongering that he'll switch. He handles Cheltenham, we know he jumps and 7-2 is a decent price imo.
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Horse looks very special in the same mould as Sprinter Sacre
This is feckin heresay Hussard!! Have had similar thoughts but wasn't brave enough to express them  A very long way to go....time (and most importantly good fortune)will tell. |
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It might well be 'here say' but what I meant of course was 'heresy'
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http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=100506&headline=God-s-Own-to-revert-to-novice-company
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Did anyone see the Rich Ricci interview and if so, was anything mentioned regarding short and long term plans for Vautour? Thanks
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Didn't see it Tory but I'm guessing Vautour will run in the Racing Post Novice's Chase in December and Irish Arkle in January.
I think Un De Sceaux will be left to run in something like the Wayward Lad Novice's Chase at Kempton. |
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Actually thinking about my post above I reckon Un De Sceaux will surely run in a handy Beginner's Chase over the next few weeks. Kempton race probably too soon.
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No worries. Interesting that a few decent bets went down on him today on here for the Arkle
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Vautour and the other Irish novices could be very good, but the best hurdler among the Arkle candidates is probably Ptit Zig and he has taken really well to fences.
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Technically he's the 3rd best hurdler behind UDS and Vautour. He comes out well on stats so far though
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GILGAMBOA....will be seen next at either Leopardstown or Limerick over the Christmas period.
Bolger has high hopes he can take higher order over fences but a lack of opportunities is forcing him to go up in grade earlier than he may have liked. "It looks like now it will be either Leopardstown or Limerick over Christmas," said Bolger. "I've not decided which and I won't until much nearer the time. "Leopardstown is a Grade One (Racing Post Novice Chase) and Limerick is a Grade Two (Greenmount Park Novice Chase). "I'd rather not throw him in so early but the programme dictates it, there just aren't enough races but everyone else is in the same boat." |
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Tory, the OR confirmsd your point very narrowly but so far there is very limited form links betweeen the established 2 mile hurdlers and last season novices. Vaniteux ran OK off 147 in the Greatwood so I suppose that Vautour is worth 158 plus. Ptit Zig was rated 159 on Champion Hurdle day and ran respectably there.
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Sage, I'm not meaning to be dismissive of what you're saying, merely pointing out the facts. I'm on Vautour at 7/1 and 9/1, but I may cover Ptit Zig. From a trends point of view he and vautor are miles clear at this stage. Ground dependency would worry me but think he's a very good bet at the odds
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I didn't take it as dismissive at all. I tend to be suspicious of novice ratings until there is enough collateral form with the established stars but I readily admit that Vautour looked well above the average Supreme winner and I am surprised that he not Faugheen is going chasing.
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Later on the Ascot card, classy hurdler Josses Hill could have first first start over fences in the Grade 1 Mitie Novices' Chase.
Runner-up in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham last March, Nicky Henderson's consistent performer is among 11 entries for the 2m3f contest for which the useful pair Ptit Zig and Puffing Billy are also entered. Josses Hill, who was last seen when winning a Grade 2 hurdle at Aintree in April, is a general 7-1 chance for the Racing Post Arkle Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival in March. |
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7/1 isn't much use at this stage, for a horse who hasn't jumped competetively. You'd want 12/1 as things stand. This season has flown past for me. Bookies crawling in with people from big stables has dampened the season, for me anyway. Prices tightened everytime a Mullins horse eats up.How many supreme winners hiding in his yard this year ffs. One snuffs it, only to be replaced by another ricci wp runner.
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been crap aint it Graeme no decent prices looks like a short priced accy year for me, vautour, the new one, peace and co the stand out.....
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Alleged, the market will change over the festive period, and some decent prices ought to be available. If the bookies go short on all mullins, then it creates value elsewhere. Just need to get more horses out there. Douvan 13/2 for the supreme. Jason Donavon has a better chance of winning it.
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At least we know what coour silks Donavon would have
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*colour
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UN DE SCEAUX made amends for his Thurles fall with an easy stroll under Ruby Walsh to get off the mark over fences.
The 1-5 favourite made light work of his rivals for a 12-length victory, and the performance prompted Betfred and Paddy Power to make the six-year-old their 3-1 favourite (from 4) for the Racing Post Arkle, ahead of stablemate Vautour. Ladbrokes also cut Un De Sceaux to 5-2 joint-favouritism after Vautour and Walsh never looked in anything but supreme control throughout. The pair were quickly out in front and proceeded to dominate. Somethingwonderful and Smashing were the nearest pursuers, though the former fell at the fifth. In the long gap between the fifth and sixth fences Walsh motored clear and although Smashing did reduce the arrears, he had to work hard to do so. Meanwhile Un De Sceaux continued to jump fluently, with Walsh barely having to move to extend the advantage again after the last. Winning trainer Willie Mullins said: "He had a bit of a scare at the first but his jumping improved after that - it seemed to steady him. He's grand in the stable but when he comes to the races he is hard on himself - that's just him. "Christmas will come soon and there's a race at Naas on January 4 that is probably also too soon. I'll have a look at something in mid-January." FacebookTwitterDiggE-mail Tags: Un De Sceaux | W P Mullins | R Walsh | FAIRYHOUSE CommentsUser comment Time for the white coats if you take this price! Report abuse 02:47pm - 20 Dec 14derekkent, United Kingdom Log in to post comment |
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Still a massive price, I think top gamble is interesting, still too much focus on last years top hurdlers who have not jumped a fence under any type of pressure.
When was the last time the best hurdler won the Arkle? |
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Simonsig 2013.
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I have just watched Josses Hill from yesterday.
Really unimpressed with him. I know it was his debut and he was very head strong in the first half of the race, but he looks very unnatural at his jumping. He made a bad mistake which can happen to any horse but he doesn't make a nice shape at his fences. Doesn't look athletic enough for an Arkle horse. Might be better at a track like Newbury over further but not a tight track like Cheltenham. Reminds a bit of another Henderson horse,Punchestown. |
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Dunno how Vautour is, but CF got stuffed last year. I'm not so sure how long that 8/1 will last if he's alright.
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8/1 is quite big ... you'd have to forgive that on the ground. Also the mistake took a lot out of him - he was on his nose!
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jumped stickily throughout..even before the bad mistake he wasn't jumping or travelling.
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He's 8/1 because he's probably going to run in the jlt.
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Put a line through any Leop form today or tomorrow as far as Cheltenham goes, conditions are terrible
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i'd put a line through him because he is trained by WPM and going over fences! Jaysus he has some poor stats
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may be pocket talkin but i was quite impressed with gilgamboa today looked to have the 2nd fav beat and was giving that one 18 pounds ,travelled and jumped well ,long way to go but another step up the ladder
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Think he will be taking on Vautour in the JLT foyles.
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I was impressed with Gilgamboa yesterday. Be interesting to see if he contests the Irish Arkle.
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