Cheltenham Festival
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The Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle
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Can't see how AP can be blamed for Jezki's latest defeat myself.
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Me neither
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Will Ricci be happy with Paul Townend on Faugheen. There'll be some cracking jockeys without a ride that he good go for instead.
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I'm sure people said the same about Dettori and Treve - I'll trust the history books.
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Get BJG on board
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*Faugheen if Ruby dont want it
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The jezki situation is the same going into the festival as it was last year...running his race in Ireland through the winter in races that don't suit....same horse as last year going to the CH where he'll have the race run to suit....no negatives to be taken at all for me.
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God that Fly has some guts and class,looked beaten,much like the 2nd Churdle at Cheltenham he won.Shame Jezki missed the last,but still feel Fly would have won.
Great race though whatever. As for March,i still think TNO,Faugheen and Jezki will be 1st 3 home,but I have to say now that Fly will go there,he has to,all season I thought he would skip the race. Thing is with Fly he did all this last year and ran badly at Chelt,i see no reason why the same wont happen again, and the fact hes now 11. Unless its proper soft ground, then its different. Just to add.....Arctic Fire probably ran a similar race to last time,was hoping he would improve some more today for my bet,but looks like hes as good as todays run. |
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Agree with the point in main Duffy but the only difference is we know McCoy will ride this year and not BJG. I'm not knocking McCoy but I just think Barry suits Jezki's style much more.
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Personally don't subscribe to the geraghty v McCoy debates tbh, if I'm honest I think it's a bit of a nonsense, to see McCoy on your horse and in some way be put off by it makes no sense to me...in a strong run CH McCoy would suit jezki, or any other horse...don't worry about that.
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I absolutely love the Fly but do worry that he will get outpaced at some point in the Champion Hurdle.
Jezki has me scratching my head. Yes, it's similar to last year, but that was when it was his first year out of novice company. This year, I would have expected him (as the current champ) to get passed the great Fly at least once. He did have his ground after all. Can't use Plinth as an excuse - if he wasn't going quick enough there were nothing to stop him going passed. Still think Faugheen is the most likely winner, but at the prices, The New One would be my bet. If they race the Fly to place, I think he can finish ahead of Jezki again and place. With such a great horse though, I doubt they'd ever come over just to place, have to go for the win as he has the best form of all of them this season. |
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spot on Buddelieau
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agree chief, aprt from the last bit, Faugheen kempton run could be the best bit of form.
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Yeah could say that mate.
I suppose it's how you read the form. Wide margin winner using BHA ratings/distance won as a guide or small victories over the current champ who has proven Cheltenham form. Not saying one is right and one is wrong, but I'd always go with the latter. |
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I don't think anyone could say Barry would have won on Jezki today. We'll never know. At the same time I think it's a negative that he won't be on at Cheltenham. I hope Hurricane Fly turns up and Ruby elects to ride him as that should push Faugheen out to a better price. The pace maker was rubbish today, having to be pushed along after a couple of furlongs. Surely McManus has something better than that rag? In short that was nothing like champion hurdle pace and still the Fly didn't look comfortable to my eyes. His guts got him home but that won't be enough come March.
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Thing is with Fly he did all this last year and ran badly at Chelt,i see no reason why the same wont happen again
Tactics they tried at Cheltenham didn't work. They rode him up with the pace trying to turn it into a stamina test and he was empty coming to the last. He needs to race his way, switched off, conserve energy and held up midfield then come to challenge before the last and let him battle. |
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That would be my main worry, that he'd be that far back in the Champion he wouldnt be able to reel them in
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I agree with you CV but on balance he was beaten a long way last season & hard to believe he would have gone in any way close.
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To clarify; I'm in no way claiming Geraghty would have won on Jezki today.
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ground will play a part here. If the heavens opened (I know unlikely) carnage could occur in the market.
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They didnt switch him off CV he wasnt able to travel today
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But surely CV they knew that? this is a horse they have had a long time.
I do take on board your comments about Fly,youve followed him since day one,but I just cannot see beyond the fact hes failed by some way last year against 2 horses he will face again this year and at the age of 11 hes going to be found out again. Still,different tactics can bring different results,and one thing for sure,he adds to the fascination of the race. |
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Rain would suit faugheen as much as the fly,won over 3 miles,looked brilliant at punchestown on good to soft,all the others prefer certain ground !
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Don't know why they'd want to turn it into a stamina test, he doesn't want that, that's why dawdles in Ireland suit him where he wins by quickening up past them.
The ch hurdle that he won where he was flat out a couple of years back he managed to win primarily because the 3 in front of him went so fast they dropped dead and it helped that they were ROR...ZARK and Countrywide ruddy flame....in a similar race with jezki tracking that pace it would be curtains for him. |
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sj 25 Jan 15 15:50 Joined: 16 Nov 02 | Topic/replies: 18,284 | Blogger: sj's blog
That would be my main worry, that he'd be that far back in the Champion he wouldnt be able to reel them in Yep, that's very much the most likely outcome. If it was good ground and Faugheen went a fierce gallop from flag fall he could end up too far back to get to the front. But therein lies the possible value, he will be staying on after being outpaced and it gives juice to my e/w bet. They just have to ride him like he has to be ridden, he could be pushed along to keep tabs on them in middle of the race. But we know how hard he fights, he just need to see who he has to get to in front of him and see if he has the tools left to get him to the front. No doubt the will is there. Mullins had said he trains him differently now, last season he trained him as he always did, as if he was the buzzy keen horse of his youth and he feels that's why he was below par in his 2 runs at Cheltenham and Punchestown. He left him off after the Irish Champion Hurdle and clearly believes he didn't get him back to peak fitness for Spring. |
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duffy 25 Jan 15 16:01 Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 13,954 | Blogger: duffy's blog
Don't know why they'd want to turn it into a stamina test, he doesn't want that, that's why dawdles in Ireland suit him where he wins by quickening up past them. Are you serious? Quickens past them? He's been outpaced today down the back ffs. He's old and lost lots of his speed. |
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He has a change of speed on soft ground that not many can match. That's his main strength imo. As well as a big heart for a battle.
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Agree that making it a proper test on decent ground would do him no favours.
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What a great horse he is. Always gives everything added to his undoubted talent. Regardless of how he gets on at Cheltenham it's been another fantastic season. Top horse honours so far.
I believe Jezki could have done with his pacemaker taking him a bit further. Again it's hard to weigh him up with any real confidence going into the Champion. I agree with posters about McCoy. Yes he is the winning most jockey but in these grade 1's I would much prefer someone else. I thought his rides on Jezki and Gilgamboa were poor today. Take nothing away from The Fly though. Great horse. |
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I didnt think Gilgamboa was quick enough to lay up with Un De Sceaux nothing to do with McCoy
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CVByrne
25 Jan 15 16:09 Are you serious? Quickens past them? He's been outpaced today down the back ffs. He's old and lost lots of his speed. Yeh I was serious...but I was only echoing what Mullins had just hinted at himself so don't get too excited about it.! |
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Mullins said that rather than get outpaced he thinks he is simply relaxing finally mid race...polite way of saying getting lazy IMO and it makes sense...watch again, apart from turning in they crawled today...crawled, all around HF you've got jezki (who was still keen jumping 3 out ffs), arctic fire and fiscal focus lobbing along...no way was HF's problem outpaced in that,the problem was becoming a bit lazy at the age of 11....as soon as it quickened up late on the whole picture changed and he woke up and yes, he quickened up to jezki.
At the age of 11 he's changed in as much as he switched himself off mid race in the Irish dawdles but because they are dawdles he stays in touch his asset his ability to quicken on this ground that hasn't diminished yet and as there's no other horse racing against him in Ireland able to deal with his change of gear late on, he still wins. At the festival, his more relaxed style these days and the stronger emphasis on stamina nullifies his greatest asset late on and anything than can race at an end to end gallop will have him in trouble....all about opinions, but no way was he outpaced in that today in the trueist sense of the word...crawled they did.  |
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willie was excited just issued his first tweet in 4.5 years
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watch again, apart from turning in they crawled today...crawled
Don't agree and nor does Ruby Walsh and nor does the time. He said they went slow for the first few furlongs then really increased the pace and Fly was going as fast as he wanted to go and he was 2 or 3 length gap back. I agree when he's woken up he can speed up. But he can't / doesn't travel at a strong speed anymore which is a worry on good ground in March. |
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I can't believe The Fly is still a much bigger price than TNO and Jezki. 9/1 e/w in a 4 horse race with 3 places on offer looks tremendous value.
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They were 4 secs slower than last year on better ground this year...to the 4th flight they were pretty much the same as last but lost all the time gradually from there on in.
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They were saying this when he was 20/1 just a few weeks ago and they were saying that. How many of us kept the faith and realized that this race was more than just a 3 horse race i wonder? Sorry but getting more and more excited about this years Churdle as time has ticked by!
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They raced on a different ground this year. I know nothing about the course but it was mentioned on RTE that they were racing on an outside track as a result of bad ground on the inside track (which is not the norm for this meeting). My guess is they start from the same point but it's probably a few yards further overall. It was also 8 seconds slower than Christmas where the ground was very heavy.
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That explains that then, must be a fair bit stiffer...see it now on the video, must confess didn't notice.
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