Cheltenham Festival
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The Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle
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Zamby Man if he runs would be an obvious front-runner and Plinth has been making it recently. APOB knows all about pacemakers too and might be happy to oblige JP!!
If there wasn't any obvious pace, I don't think Faugheen's jockey - be it Ruby or Townend - would be adverse to taking the bull by the horns. |
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Are we even sure that WPM will actually send The Fly? I don't think he wants to see him trail in behind these horses and lessen his reputation!! Maybe I'm wrong.
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id be surprised to see the fly at any festivals tbh, I think they will try to win those winter grade 1,s in Ireland next season on his favoured going, and tbh I don,t blame them
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doesn't it lessen his reputation even more by avoiding the big meetings? sure he can gather those easy G1s with 2-3 runners in Ireland but his reputation is build on being dual champion at Chelt and he could do it this year also; under smaller chances than in previous years but still there's still a shot why keep him home?
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you'd be mad if you think JP wont make it a big test like last year. plinth there for exactly that.
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The way he took The Fly apart at Punchestown after setting a moderate gallop which appeared too sedate at the tie I'd have thought McCoy woudn't have any problem sending Jezki on if nobody else wants to make it.
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If Plinth will set a strong pace, then there are Faugheen and Jezki closely behind, TNO's rider strictly following Faugheen, with the potential placers Fly(top class), Purple bay, Arctic Fire, Irving and Diakali(potential big improvers) right in behind and if they go too fast in front one of these could pick up a place. I cannot see Tiger Roll, Vaniteux, Bertimont or Sign Of Victory even getting near them and they'll only cause trafic problems.. But if Fly won't be so close to the pace he'll look a much better e/w bet than Jezki who's hood, like SoYouThink said might not be so effective this time around. Plus why do we assume the going to be on the good side, maybe it'll rain a few days just before the festival..
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I don't know who will win but I'll be amazed if Jezki doesn't finish in front of The Fly.
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So will I,unless it's really soft.
Maybe some are ignoring last years race. And the fact he's now a year older. |
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All I would say, having been hugely against Hurricane Fly last year, is that the vibes suggest connections honestly believe he wasn't at his best last year. The race was also run on unsuitably fast ground and Ruby admitted to being too close to the pace. He has looked right back to his best in Ireland this year, and while I think it is unlikely he can win again at the age of 11, I wouldn't be shocked if he went very close.
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This will put the cat among the pigeons with a few on here saying no chance etc but i honestly believe Ruby will stay loyal and ride the fly
 and if any bookie chaps wanted to price it up i would be having a small bet |
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If he thinks The Fly is a more likely winner than Faugheen then he'll ride The Fly. I'd say there is a 99% degree of certainty that he will ride Faugheen.
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I've a feeling he'll ride Fly in the Champion if he can beat Jezki again today. They got tactics wrong with Fly in the Champion last year, he has to have a target to aim at and he'll give his all to get to. So held up and then tack onto the pack coming down the hill, produce to jump the last upsides and battle up the Hill. Faugheen will set a strong gallop so there will be no hiding place.
It's a very tough call for Ruby. How Fly does today will be key. |
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I reckon Jezki beats him today but either way I'd be shocked if Ruby rides HF.
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Cant have that CV
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He'll be too far back on quicker ground
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Not sure how he's won that but fair play.
Much prefer Jezki with BJG on board. |
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Boring as hell these 2 runner affairs.
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Agree Benjy BJG a lot better
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legend of a horse at his age remarkable.
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Has to go to Cheltenham.
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Hurricane Fly by TKO :o
Heart of a champion.... |
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His talent now lies with his will to win, he just refuses to give up. He has to be ridden with a horse to aim at coming to the last. I'd be pretty sure Ruby won't get off him.
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Im praying for the wettest march ever
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sintonian 25 Jan 15 14:50 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 25,679 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
Boring as hell these 2 runner affairs. You prefer the 1 runner affairs in England then do you? |
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I'd hardly say that was meant he was ridden like that because he couldnt travel
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I can't see how walsh would get off of him either, this assumption that walsh is hard nosed and will ride Faugheen is misplaced I think...don't think he could bare someone else sat on HF's back in the CH.
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CVByrne 25 Jan 15 14:26 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 4,522 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
I've a feeling he'll ride Fly in the Champion if he can beat Jezki again today. They got tactics wrong with Fly in the Champion last year, he has to have a target to aim at and he'll give his all to get to. So held up and then tack onto the pack coming down the hill, produce to jump the last upsides and battle up the Hill. Faugheen will set a strong gallop so there will be no hiding place. It's a very tough call for Ruby. How Fly does today will be key. Beat you to that by 3 days cv but what a first day of a festival to look forwards to now! Douvan, followed by UDS a little break then Faugh v TNO v the hurricane imo!! This race is turning out to be a similar scenario to that when we had the Denman v Kauto |
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If you're referring to TNO then it's not recorded as a Group 1 success, HF's is.
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Jezki just doesn't get the end to end gallop in Ireland,,,he got caught out last year when the pace quickened and couldn't stop OC cutting him off...HF raced lazily but when the pace quickened up he was in the process of doing Jezki for toe again....end to end gallop at the festival is a different story though and wouldn't concern me what happened today with regards jezki's chances at Cheltenham.
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I always thought Ruby would stick with The Fly and that race might just have made his mind up. I don't think it changes anything in terms of Faugheen's chances but it'll mean a better price if you fancy him.
I also don't think Jezki will ever repeat his CH effort last year which was a serious run. I think the way the race unfolded, the pace and the ground and possibly the headgear all combined to bring the best out of him. He's still a fine horse, unlucky to be around at the same time as Hurricane Fly, and he might be able to turn the form around at Cheltenham and Punchestown but I'm considering him for the Champion Hurdle now. He'd be my fourth choice of the Big Four. |
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They need to find a pace maker for Jezki, Plinth did a terrible job there imo.
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Jezki had a lot more in his favour today than Hurricane Fly would that be fair to say? The pacemaker and the pace, the ground that bit drier, Hurricane Fly looked to be outpaced, it all looked to be going to plan until the second last.
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Could we now see Faugheen pick up a mystery injury as Mullins and Ruby go in search of that elusive third champion hurdle.Remember they took the stable opposition out of the way last year by pulling the wool over ricci/Annie power and o Connell/ un de sceaux.Wait and see time now.Willie and Ruby will do what suits them best not the owners because they feel they own them all and campaign them for their own good
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No, the course is massively in Fly's favour today compared to what will be the case at Cheltenham. That outweighs the other factors you've mentioned considerably imo.
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Agree with Benjy, plinth couldn't do the job, for a horse like Jezki that wants to be galloping hard off a strong pace for 2 miles but is susceptible to something with a change of pace late on...the last thing you want to be seeing mid race is him jig jogging in 2nd place.
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Ruby Walsh Post Race Interview
Aye he's a horse of a lifetime. Cracking little horse. He didn't travel with any fluidity. It's the outside track around Leopardstown and they didn't go fast early but just wound it up...it was very testing race. It was tough going all the way down to the 2nd last. I was struggling! He picked up round the bend once I managed to get out from behind Robbie and Mickey and then he absolutely came alive again and sparkled. Running down to the last I saw AP go for the whip and I knew I had him covered. It's unfortunate that Jezki made a mistake at the last but I was always going to win. Without him there would be no race so let's not forget him. It's very exciting about Cheltenham now. Willie Mullins has two good horses to take now. It's all up to him who goes. It's great to have the choice of two and I won't make mind up until 10 o'clock on the Sunday before the Festival when the Declarations have to be made. |
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WWWW22.....ricci will only bend over so many times....even his ar5ehole has its limits!
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Jessica Harrington needs to take a leaf out of Criquette Heads book and tell the owner that she wants her preferred jockey on board her stable star on the big day and not the owners retained rider.
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