Cheltenham Festival
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tell us more willie mullins
tell us more willie mullins
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It could deffo shake a few plans up, but Nichols Canyon has now entered the picture, so it could be him and Douvan possibly?
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Yes fair point mate.
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Looooong way to go yet. Nichols Canyon and Douvan look the likeliest for the Supreme at this point but I wouldn't be surprised if Mullins had a re-think about Shaneshill's target ...
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Max Dynamite too I'd have thought. Impressive at Thurles. Presume Black Hercules will be upped in trip?
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Yeah I've got Black Hercules down as an Albert Bartlett type horse. Forgot about Max Dynamite actually. Sempre Medici another potentially for the Neptune. The list is never ending for Mr Mullins!
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Sire De Champs back after Christmas but they'll not rush him so any backward steps and might be a full season out Rubyisgodinthesaddle.
Pont Alexandre I've seen nothing, Will ask around for you in next couple of days, See what bounces back.(Friend has a couple with Willie) |
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FAO CCM
The guy who does Road To Cheltenham at the oddschecker site has picked up on something you noticed. Quoted below. "Finally, some bookmakers make it their business to have a mole in a top yard. Last season when Pricewise put Annie Power up for the Champion Hurdle, Paddy Power were a stand out 14/1, (10/1 was the biggest price other layers in the Pricewisebox were offering.) During the summer Paddy Power seemed the first to know that Faugheen was staying hurdling and Vautour and Un De Sceaux were going chasing. It’s interesting they offer only 7/1 on Ballycasey for the Champion Chase, (Stan James go 16/1). Whilst they’re ducking Vautour generally, they are especially under the general price for the JLT, (they offer 9/4, top price is 100/30). In the Gold Cup they’re top price Champagne Fever (12/1) and Sir Des Champs (25/1) and bottom price Boston Bob, (14/1 – top price 25/1). If you’re thinking of backing a Willie Mullins horse ante-post, it’s worth checking Paddy Power’s prices." Anyway, Tell Us More is best price at Paddy for the Supreme, and Paddy has him shortest for the Neptune. |
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I reckon Boston Bob could be the one for the GC. Very likely to stay on well up the hill. His jumping has been crabbed on here but he finished up last season with a flourish.
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Thanks for posting that Tucho. Interesting stuff indeed.
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Hard to make assumptions up on each individual horses targets but interesting stuff all the same. They may well have a mole in the Mullins yard, but at the same time again they may not. Hard to get away from the Faugheen, Vautour, UDS pricing during the summer/Autumn months though i guess and so needs to be keeping a beady eye on PP's prices as the season progresses and horses targets are started to more or less get finalised
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Maybe it's because Im balls deep on Vautour for the Arkle, but I've sensed subliminal messages from Ruby and Willie regarding trip. They have said stepping up will be no issue to him a few times. Add that to PP's tactics, and will certainly keep me worrying all the way to March!
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For me if the yard were to make an early season decision on a horses targets the most likely one is Vautour. He jumps and travels so well it be hard not to target him at the JLT imo what with the way UDS goes about his business.
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I guess for me the $64,000 question is, will UDS skip Cheltenham
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They ran Sir De Champs in the JLT so not averse to running a good one in that race.
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Maybe that's their current plan. Gives Ruby the chance to win both as well. Maybe Vautour will only go for the Arkle if UDS doesn't develop as they hope. F*cking hope not mind you
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I'm in deep from an AP perspective on Vautour but I am worried. Regarding breeding, Vautour was tipped to me by same source who gave me Kalkir @ 25/1 when he was 20/1 for supreme - didn't back him as thought he'd want further. Haven't made that mistake again but I guess point I'm making is that Vautour would appear on breeding to be a horse which would appreciate a step up. Only way I see him in the Arkle is if UDS doesn't show, which is possible given the way he runs
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I see Vautour has an entry in the Topaz over Xmas.
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That's a very odd entry. I know they probably want to cover all bases, but you wouldn't do that with a horse most likely to be going for the Arkle would you?
I'm resigning myself to the worst already. |
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Ricci has said all along Vautour will be aimed at the arkle,I'm sure Vautour will run over 2 mile 1 next,the good thing going for Vautour fans running in the arkle is he did not look as impressive over 2 and a half,will be 4-5 for the arkle on the day !
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Hope you are correct Cuf
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Fingers crossed Steve because I am confident Vautour is the winner barring injury of the race !
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As far as the sport is concerned I would want both in the Arkle,stuff the antepost money!!
Its the stuff that dreams are made of a front running horse in a 2m championship race,just hope it happens......I have my doubts though  |
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I'd be surprised if UDS goes to Cheltenham
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Whys that bluebird?
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Whats the current feelings on this one guys? I like a lot of you backed this at 20s for neptune and am getting increasingly nervous as the days tick by as to what target he will have come March if any. (If i am to lose this stake i would rather it be he didn't run at the festival at all lol)
Entered in the 2 mile tolworth and the 2.5 miler at Naas on the 4th, but then so is half of the mullins yard Seriously considering going in on a saver in the any race market at 6s, (missed the 7s and 8s when i intended to and forgot about it till now) |
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Yes I'm in the same camp STS.
My feeling for now would be to go with the "Willie runs his best novice hurdler in the Neptune" theory and hold tight as the horse will surely be out for a run in the next few days. Risks as always with Willie Wontie, including what he does with Douvan, particularly if Alvisio Ville turns out to be as good as they think he is, but there's nothing at the moment to suggest that Tell Us More is headed for any other Festival target. |
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Imagine Douvan will run at Sandown on Sat and Tell Us More Naas on Sunday.
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No reason to panic, Cooper said in a podcast that there wasn't a suitable race over Xmas for him so they'd wait. Sunday at Naas looks a big step up, but at least its over the Neptune distance.
I know Briar Hill beat Very Wood last year on the way to the Albert Bartlett, but it is normally a Neptune trial and Gigginstown already have the rock solid fav for the Albert Bartlett. Surely won't run the two against each other in March. To me, if he wins it's all systems go for the Neptune. If he loses he's not as good as we think so there's no need to cover him to win any race at the festival as you'll probably get a better price on the day! |
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Gigginstown have another decent one for the Neptune at a nice price, was impressed with him the other day - Identity Thief.
Blimey that lot have got some novices this season,fences and hurdles. |
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Running at Naas on Sunday.
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Running at Naas on Sunday.
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Sunday will give us a better idea of how good he is at this stage. Free Expression was hardly impressive last time but has a lofty reputation.
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This Horse is the Festival Banker
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Needs to be winning well tomorrow as we have good form lines through Free Expression and Coleur France to Shaneshill and No More Heroes
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Would be crushed if he lost tomorrow, heavily backed this fella for Neptune for awhile. If he bolts in here, he should be short for Neptune come the day as the division looks pretty weak.
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The whole novice hurdle division looks weak, apart from the juveniles IMO. Can't remember such a poor looking Supreme field in January.
I'm balls deep on him as well, and topping up at 7's. Assuming he wins comfortably tomorrow, he will probably be half that price. |
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Yeah you're right, not a great Novice hurdle division this season is it.
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I think for the first time ever, I'm probably looking forward to the Albert Bartlett the most out of the three novice hurdles - No More Heroes, Black Hercules and Blacklion looks a great match up to me.
Also looking forward to Tell us More, Shaneshill and Parlour Games in the Neptune. Don't think there'll be any superstars, but they look really competitive. I prefer it like this than last year when Faugheen and Briar Hill were no price at all. |
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will be really interested to see this horse actually put some form in the book tomorrow in this weak grade 1
quotes from willie like "he could be top drawer" have certainly got the bandwagon rolling...he has only beaten drains so far, so free expression should certainly race him tomorrow, he himself won a weak race last time but at least looks progressive 4/6 is certainly a braves mans bet tomorrow and 9/2 from hills for him for cheltenhams neptune is truly sickening in my book like i say i will be happy to just get something to work off tomorrow because so far i haven't seen anything to say he warrants being the price he is for cheltenham...tomorrow will tell us more |
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Given the way they bet for this tomorrow, this is by no means a lay down. If he's a good as the hype, I'm surprised he's not a lot shorter.
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