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Imprortant Update 6th March
I have been reviewing the Gold Cup, again, this morning looking for some value in the race and some interesting thoughts occurred to me. Please try to stay with my ramblings here as I think there is a chance this could be valuable.
Please refer to these documents:
http://bit.ly/1fJwit1
Gold Cup Spreadsheet 2014.xls
So, with the going drying, I am becoming concerned that it may not suit Silviniaco Conti and that he may be compromised. I am already against Bobs Worth, even though he is a worthy fav, at the price and must oppose him. Last Installment may not run and I'm heavily opposed to The Giant Bolster, Long Run, Captain Chris and others. Harry Topper may also not run due to the ground.
Taking the spreadsheet I started again. Firstly, eliminate any that have not won a Grade 1 chase. This is an absolute requirement. Then any that have not won at 3 miles, any older than 10 years old and you are left with.
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
First Lieutenant
Lord Windermere
Long Run
Last Installment
Mount Benbulben
Roi Du Mee
Last Installment never raced at the course and unlikely to run. Long Run way over raced and in poor form, trying to regain and not much hope. Mount Benbulben and Roi Du Mee are not Festival types and are dismissed which leaves me with:
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
First Lieutenant
Lord Windermere
If you look at Ben Aitkens report on dosages on page 7, you will see that both Lord Windermere and First Lieutenant are a 'snug fit' for the stamina profile and Silviniaco Conti is wide of the mark.
First Lieutenant: was second to Cue Card in the Ryan Air last year and was second to Bobs Worth in the Lexus. He has raced 18 times over fences and won only 3 of them. Has been beaten 3 times from 3 when racing against Bobs Worth but has been in the frame in a Hennessey, RSA, Ryan Air and Lexus and won the Neptune Novices hurdle. He will certainly appreciate the good going. He is rated 169 over fences and 12 of the last 13 were rated 166 or higher. Struggles to win but consistent in top class races and looks set to stay the distance.
Lord Windermere: has not had a great season having been well beaten in all starts. However, he has run in the key races (Lexus, Hennessy), is a Grade 1 winner at 3 miles, a Festival winner (won RSA last year) and a second season chaser. Let me throw some stats at you:
11 of the last 22 winners were second season chasers and he is the only one that survives from trends, whilst 12 of the last 16 had finished first or second in a previous Festival. He is an RSA Chase winner and of the last 11 to try the double in the Gold Cup, 4 went on to complete it. He is a snug fit on the dosage stats from Ben.
Given the likelihood of several being withdrawn due to the going, and my opposition to the non Grade 1 winners, the older horses, those never placed at a Festival and so on, I do not feel it is beyond the realms of possibility for Lord Windermere to bounce back to form on spring ground and out run his massive odds. At 50/1, yes fifty to one, I am prepared to have a proper bet because with withdrawals and quicker going he might be a quarter of those odds on the day.
I am generally against First Lieutenant because he just does not win often enough but has the credentials to get in the frame and in doing so would cover the bet on Lord Windermere. I will now bet him ew
A word about Boston Bob. Those who were with me last year will remember we had maximum ew bets at 8/1 and looked like collecting until he fell at the last. He also fell when we smashed him at Punchestown. Had he won the RSA he would be a serious contender this year and there are rumours he may yet run. However, just 4 runs over fences including two falls is no preparation and I would have to be against him.
Betting Advice
Back LORD WINDERMERE 2 points ew at 50/1 BetVictor and others nrnb
Back FIRST LIEUTENANT 1 point ew at 16/1 nrnb
Comment
Yes, this might be speculative and the favourites might well dominate but everything has a price and 50s is too big for me. If Silviniaco Conti were to resent the track or going the race could be wide open and I have landed enough big price touches over the last 20 odd years not to be scared. We have every chance that First Lieutenant will repeat his RSA, Ryan Air and Lexus form by getting in the frame meaning lower risk on our speculative 50/1 shot.
I have not as yet backed Silviniaco Conti as I was going to switch my Cue Card money and I may not bet him at all now. If you have, do not be alarmed the horse could very easily win, this argument is just about finding value. I think I have.
I have been reviewing the Gold Cup, again, this morning looking for some value in the race and some interesting thoughts occurred to me. Please try to stay with my ramblings here as I think there is a chance this could be valuable.
Please refer to these documents:
http://bit.ly/1fJwit1
Gold Cup Spreadsheet 2014.xls
So, with the going drying, I am becoming concerned that it may not suit Silviniaco Conti and that he may be compromised. I am already against Bobs Worth, even though he is a worthy fav, at the price and must oppose him. Last Installment may not run and I'm heavily opposed to The Giant Bolster, Long Run, Captain Chris and others. Harry Topper may also not run due to the ground.
Taking the spreadsheet I started again. Firstly, eliminate any that have not won a Grade 1 chase. This is an absolute requirement. Then any that have not won at 3 miles, any older than 10 years old and you are left with.
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
First Lieutenant
Lord Windermere
Long Run
Last Installment
Mount Benbulben
Roi Du Mee
Last Installment never raced at the course and unlikely to run. Long Run way over raced and in poor form, trying to regain and not much hope. Mount Benbulben and Roi Du Mee are not Festival types and are dismissed which leaves me with:
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
First Lieutenant
Lord Windermere
If you look at Ben Aitkens report on dosages on page 7, you will see that both Lord Windermere and First Lieutenant are a 'snug fit' for the stamina profile and Silviniaco Conti is wide of the mark.
First Lieutenant: was second to Cue Card in the Ryan Air last year and was second to Bobs Worth in the Lexus. He has raced 18 times over fences and won only 3 of them. Has been beaten 3 times from 3 when racing against Bobs Worth but has been in the frame in a Hennessey, RSA, Ryan Air and Lexus and won the Neptune Novices hurdle. He will certainly appreciate the good going. He is rated 169 over fences and 12 of the last 13 were rated 166 or higher. Struggles to win but consistent in top class races and looks set to stay the distance.
Lord Windermere: has not had a great season having been well beaten in all starts. However, he has run in the key races (Lexus, Hennessy), is a Grade 1 winner at 3 miles, a Festival winner (won RSA last year) and a second season chaser. Let me throw some stats at you:
11 of the last 22 winners were second season chasers and he is the only one that survives from trends, whilst 12 of the last 16 had finished first or second in a previous Festival. He is an RSA Chase winner and of the last 11 to try the double in the Gold Cup, 4 went on to complete it. He is a snug fit on the dosage stats from Ben.
Given the likelihood of several being withdrawn due to the going, and my opposition to the non Grade 1 winners, the older horses, those never placed at a Festival and so on, I do not feel it is beyond the realms of possibility for Lord Windermere to bounce back to form on spring ground and out run his massive odds. At 50/1, yes fifty to one, I am prepared to have a proper bet because with withdrawals and quicker going he might be a quarter of those odds on the day.
I am generally against First Lieutenant because he just does not win often enough but has the credentials to get in the frame and in doing so would cover the bet on Lord Windermere. I will now bet him ew
A word about Boston Bob. Those who were with me last year will remember we had maximum ew bets at 8/1 and looked like collecting until he fell at the last. He also fell when we smashed him at Punchestown. Had he won the RSA he would be a serious contender this year and there are rumours he may yet run. However, just 4 runs over fences including two falls is no preparation and I would have to be against him.
Betting Advice
Back LORD WINDERMERE 2 points ew at 50/1 BetVictor and others nrnb
Back FIRST LIEUTENANT 1 point ew at 16/1 nrnb
Comment
Yes, this might be speculative and the favourites might well dominate but everything has a price and 50s is too big for me. If Silviniaco Conti were to resent the track or going the race could be wide open and I have landed enough big price touches over the last 20 odd years not to be scared. We have every chance that First Lieutenant will repeat his RSA, Ryan Air and Lexus form by getting in the frame meaning lower risk on our speculative 50/1 shot.
I have not as yet backed Silviniaco Conti as I was going to switch my Cue Card money and I may not bet him at all now. If you have, do not be alarmed the horse could very easily win, this argument is just about finding value. I think I have.
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Rick, do you call your own name during sex? 
Aftertiming barstard 
Aftertiming barstard
Impressive, you may be as good as you think you are. Well done.
I'm not aware of this thread on the 6th March and am on the site at least once a day.
If he was an ice cream this **** would be licking himself.
Note to Judopr1ck; Real winners don't need their self esteem boosted by coming on after the race and posting the likes of this.
Note to Judopr1ck; Real winners don't need their self esteem boosted by coming on after the race and posting the likes of this.
Me and Judo have had cross words in the past but I don't begrudge a man puffing his chest out for making calls like this and to be fair several others. Good luck to him.
Why didn't he just bump the thread in which he posted that?
I take it, its from his tipping service he runs.
He put the winner up on the general horse racing forum under your best bet for Cheltenham thread.
did you use https://sites.google.com/site/gaultstats/Home rick?
first thing I did was build a spreadsheet with about 15 typical stats and then fill in all the data for every runner
I used racecaller, gault stats and Paul Jones to chose the trends then decided on several ways to eliminate based on what I judged the most significant
actually started 28th January and went through several stages mainly due to the injury to Cue Card who was a stand out selection up to then... when the news of the injury plus the terrible run by Al Ferof at Newbury I surmised that the King George form was insignificant
as I was already against the defending champion I started looking for a bet outside the top of the market
I used racecaller, gault stats and Paul Jones to chose the trends then decided on several ways to eliminate based on what I judged the most significant
actually started 28th January and went through several stages mainly due to the injury to Cue Card who was a stand out selection up to then... when the news of the injury plus the terrible run by Al Ferof at Newbury I surmised that the King George form was insignificant
as I was already against the defending champion I started looking for a bet outside the top of the market
can you give us a link to Paul Jones rick, never heard of it?
he's the guy that writes the book 'Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide'
he had a service for £269 or something, tipped zero winners!
he had a service for £269 or something, tipped zero winners!
Judo
Given Cue Card liking to dominate his races and the poor record front runners have had in the longer races this week do you think this would have affected his finishing position?
Given Cue Card liking to dominate his races and the poor record front runners have had in the longer races this week do you think this would have affected his finishing position?
RPR rated Lord Windermere 170 today
my prediction at the start of the season was that Cue Card would run 180 to 185 in the Gold Cup
he duly ran RPR 180 in the Betfair, with no use of the whip at all
had he not gone wrong after the third last in the King George I estimate he would have won by 4 to 8 lengths and done another 180+ RPR
(SC got 179 as it was)
so on that going I reckon he would have repeated the Haydock form and won like he did in the Ryan Air
my prediction at the start of the season was that Cue Card would run 180 to 185 in the Gold Cup
he duly ran RPR 180 in the Betfair, with no use of the whip at all
had he not gone wrong after the third last in the King George I estimate he would have won by 4 to 8 lengths and done another 180+ RPR
(SC got 179 as it was)
so on that going I reckon he would have repeated the Haydock form and won like he did in the Ryan Air
You're a man of strong opinions so I'd expect no less but my question related to the poor finishing record of horses in those longer races who took it out. I doubt Cue Card would have been happy if he wasn't taking them along, Which was the last winner to lead from early? I can't remember one.
I can't estimate that, he would have been lobbing along in front, not tearing away at a million like King's Palace or Next Sensation, filling up on the downhill sections, most of the field flat out just to keep up and after jumping the second last I imagine Joe would have been letting him go... I think he stretches clear and stays on way too strongly
just too quick for these, when you think where the Giant Bolster finished I would expect Cue Card to smash him
just too quick for these, when you think where the Giant Bolster finished I would expect Cue Card to smash him
Fair Play Judo, you might not be everyones cup of tea and you sure sometimes have a shortish fuse 
but you put the work in and deserve the plaudits here..
but you put the work in and deserve the plaudits here..
thanks for the back handed compliment, exactly why I no longer post my bets on here
I don't think his compliment is back handed or meant to be, he's saying well done from what I can see. And you do tend to have a short fuse when people disagree with you and/or wind you up. I am surprised with your judo training that you let it so easily irk and provoke you? Anyway great winner finding (again) so well done from me.
Judo, can I ask, if you're no longer posting your bets on here, then why post an email message you sent to mates/subscribers of yours on the 6th of March?
Mar 15, 2014 -- 3:00PM, judorick wrote:
thanks for the back handed compliment, exactly why I no longer post my bets on here
So why post your analysis now?
No offence Judo, but i don't know why anyone would give you single dime for your tipping service. Your picks are based on stats, which anyone can do, and your logic is often flawed. Fair play though, it must be money for old rope. I had small bets on Lyreen Legend and Lord windermere myself.
Judo --- weve all had 50/1s
Let it go - if you keep throwing darts at the bull .........................
Let it go - if you keep throwing darts at the bull .........................
Not having a go at you personally. I just think all tipsters are getting money for old rope.
I don't think he charges anybody money for anything. Last year when he posted his massive thesis-like overview, he said he writes everything up for his friends and family.
He's not going to make a penny if he keeps posting tips on twitter for free.
He's not going to make a penny if he keeps posting tips on twitter for free.
I always seem to catch the threads where Judo crows about how clever he's been, but I always seem
to miss the threads in which he was clever. With his record, I really would like to get his National
tip this year. Maybe we could all agree to flag it up everywhere BEFORE the race instead of after?
to miss the threads in which he was clever. With his record, I really would like to get his National
tip this year. Maybe we could all agree to flag it up everywhere BEFORE the race instead of after?
Lads I would just like to say Judo took me under his wing and gives me his selections for FREE. Lord windemere was given days in advance to a few friends,i can understand why he doesn't post anymore as jealousy abounds on here being accused of after timing,making money out of his hard work and being told how easy it is to work on stats,if it was you should all have been on it and it would have been favourite,p.s. he also gave us the winner of the mids. grand national as well just to top of a fantastic week..
Lads I would just like to say Judo took me under his wing and gives me his selections for FREE. Lord windemere was given days in advance to a few friends,i can understand why he doesn't post anymore as jealousy abounds on here being accused of after timing,making money out of his hard work and being told how easy it is to work on stats,if it was you should all have been on it and it would have been favourite,p.s. he also gave us the winner of the mids. grand national as well just to top of a fantastic week..
that's great Alan. But can you tell us the purpose of this thread?
I would say probably to poke the knockers in the eye on what there missing out on, but I don't think for him just my opinion !!!
We're not knockers. It's a forum where people talk about racing. Unfortunately the boy gerorge lover and his apostles cause trouble on here, and think the world is out to get them. It's a internet forum, where people talk about horses. This isn't Holywood, and nobody wants anyones autograph. It's also a lack of respect for other posters. I done not too bad myself, but i'm aware that not everybody wins, so i keep hush and move on to the next race. Next year i could lose, and others can have their day.
Very true Graeme, sometimes I think people lose track of what a racing forum is all about.
Mar 17, 2014 -- 5:48PM, alansure1 wrote:
Lads I would just like to say Judo took me under his wing and gives me his selections for FREE. Lord windemere was given days in advance to a few friends,i can understand why he doesn't post
I honestly couldn't give a **** what he has gave out tbh, he's like a little child when someone disagrees with him. If you want to bet following stats and can make it pay good luck to you, but just because someone has a different view it doesn't make them automatically wrong.
To say cue card would have pissed up is a bit of a bold statement, would he have started the race after the rest had ran 4 furlongs? Absolutely no chance imo.
To say cue card would have pissed up is a bit of a bold statement, would he have started the race after the rest had ran 4 furlongs? Absolutely no chance imo.
I think maybe if Judo wound his neck in a bit and stopped taking peoples opposing views so much to heart as if they are some kind of personal sleight he'd be a very interesting person to debate the issues with.
Maybe you should be thanking Ben, Mark & Bryan for doing the work that aids you rather than willy waving on here like a child because you stuck it into a spreadsheet.
As far as I can remember one of his trends was that the short list selections had to have won a race in the current season. Surely this trend did not change due to last years result.
Another old trend that used to be spouted was that previous years RSA winner could be discounted (not sure if you applied that rule Judo although I do remember having a conversation about Garrison Savannah who was a non-winning RSA winner who also failed every other test).
A winning 20/1 selection of a big race is always nice, but I can't see which relevant trend Lord W really fitted.
Another old trend that used to be spouted was that previous years RSA winner could be discounted (not sure if you applied that rule Judo although I do remember having a conversation about Garrison Savannah who was a non-winning RSA winner who also failed every other test).
A winning 20/1 selection of a big race is always nice, but I can't see which relevant trend Lord W really fitted.
There's not many on here I would bother to post a derogatory remark about, BUT, what a complete t0ssr you are judorick.
No more needs to be added
No more needs to be added
judorick 11 Dec 11 14:11
actually fellas in last years Arkle my bet was a maximum lay in win and place of Ghizao precisely because his hurdle form was way out of line with the others (was rated 135 or something) and was 4/1 SP which was way too short. I often use such the trends to do lays like that rather than backing 1 or two to win.
first of many i believe.
sintonian 11 Dec 11 13:44
Laugh
Howdi 11 Dec 11 20:20
judorick going to dominate this thread in months to come
judorick 11 Dec 11 22:27
fck you I never after time, I been posting bets on forums for donkeys years
after timing is when you claim something after the event when you never posted it before the race
you will never catch me doing that
and I wont be around for months with the bunch of knuts there are on these boards
I was warned by the guys on both OLBG and Marias forum, they said this place was full of people more interested in arguing, poking fun and taking the michael than actually discussing betting and how to improve at it...
they were right
[b]I tell you what, I have posted on forums for many years and I am a well known judge. Ask Pieceofcake, he knows my record elsewhere which is outstanding - as I showed by predicting the exact 1-2-3 in the International Hurdle in a thread started by The Honest Scouser called "Menorah tmoz" where I also said lay Menorah in the place market on Friday night.[/b]
Never mind, I'll go back to OLBG those guys actually wanna talk racing
duffy 11 Dec 11 22:30
^
that's got to be a wind up!!!
duffy 11 Dec 11 22:34
I tell you what, I have posted on forums for many years and I am a well known judge. Ask Pieceofcake, he knows my record elsewhere which is outstanding - as I showed by predicting the exact 1-2-3 in the International Hurdle in a thread started by The Honest Scouser called "Menorah tmoz" where I also said lay Menorah in the place market on Friday night.
judo....you ain't getting the hang of this thread...you're supposed to post it elsewhere and then we copy and post it onto hereLaughLaugh
duffy 11 Dec 11 22:38
I tell you what, I have posted on forums for many years and I am a well known judge. Ask Pieceofcake
i'm sorry i'm crying with laughter here...but that sentence is classic comedy...ask pieceofcake!!!LaughLaugh
The signs were there from day 1
actually fellas in last years Arkle my bet was a maximum lay in win and place of Ghizao precisely because his hurdle form was way out of line with the others (was rated 135 or something) and was 4/1 SP which was way too short. I often use such the trends to do lays like that rather than backing 1 or two to win.
first of many i believe.
sintonian 11 Dec 11 13:44
Laugh
Howdi 11 Dec 11 20:20
judorick going to dominate this thread in months to come
judorick 11 Dec 11 22:27
fck you I never after time, I been posting bets on forums for donkeys years
after timing is when you claim something after the event when you never posted it before the race
you will never catch me doing that
and I wont be around for months with the bunch of knuts there are on these boards
I was warned by the guys on both OLBG and Marias forum, they said this place was full of people more interested in arguing, poking fun and taking the michael than actually discussing betting and how to improve at it...
they were right
[b]I tell you what, I have posted on forums for many years and I am a well known judge. Ask Pieceofcake, he knows my record elsewhere which is outstanding - as I showed by predicting the exact 1-2-3 in the International Hurdle in a thread started by The Honest Scouser called "Menorah tmoz" where I also said lay Menorah in the place market on Friday night.[/b]
Never mind, I'll go back to OLBG those guys actually wanna talk racing
duffy 11 Dec 11 22:30
^
that's got to be a wind up!!!
duffy 11 Dec 11 22:34
I tell you what, I have posted on forums for many years and I am a well known judge. Ask Pieceofcake, he knows my record elsewhere which is outstanding - as I showed by predicting the exact 1-2-3 in the International Hurdle in a thread started by The Honest Scouser called "Menorah tmoz" where I also said lay Menorah in the place market on Friday night.
judo....you ain't getting the hang of this thread...you're supposed to post it elsewhere and then we copy and post it onto hereLaughLaugh
duffy 11 Dec 11 22:38
I tell you what, I have posted on forums for many years and I am a well known judge. Ask Pieceofcake
i'm sorry i'm crying with laughter here...but that sentence is classic comedy...ask pieceofcake!!!LaughLaugh
The signs were there from day 1
A buddy of mine received his e-mail 'advice' this year. From what he told me, huge number of darts thrown to little or no effect and no focus on or measure of profitability. Bailed out by some mystery antepost 'picks' not mentioned prior to the event.
I speak as I find and he does turn up some good winners with his portfolios.
he does dunlaying, he also put this info on the horse racing forum at the beginning of the festival, and put up another thread on chelt forum the morning of the gold cup, so to those calling him an aftertimer are either gutted from not following him in or just plain jealous, me on the other hand give credit where credit is due so
WELL DONE JUDO
he also may suffer from keyboard tourettes, so I won,t hold that against him
WELL DONE JUDO
he also may suffer from keyboard tourettes, so I won,t hold that against him
Why on earth would someone come on here and tell everyone how clever they were in picking a winner??
Strange behaviour.
Strange behaviour.
Judo it's nice to see you post on here and it doesn't surprise me you picked out the winner of the gold cup. Post more often. Do you have a blog or anything for all of this analysis you do?
You're going to absolutely love this link below. Can you guess who the "Culprit is"? Fabulous. Copy, Paste & enjoy.
http://mrbasquill.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-art-of-aftertime.html
http://mrbasquill.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-art-of-aftertime.html
Good article Shockster. Obviously it's not just relevant to Judo, but to the many who openly brag about winning a bet, and use various methods of after timing. Many of these people are getting on a bit in age. I'll tell you what though, i don't think they do it for self esteem purposes, i think they do it to annoy people. These people know they will rub some people up the wrong way, and that's one of the reasons they do it. No matter what these forum loud mouths say, i don't see any of them writing articles for respectable British racing sources. The main reason for that is that you men and woman on site can pick one out. What your big names in two bob forums do is back a bunch of horses for a race, then wait untilm closer to the time and pick their strongest bet, and tell people it's their biggest potential winner, whilst saying nothing about the 4 or 5 others they backed.
Graeme the Tweets on the article are from The Judge. That is Judos Twitter name. Judo actually makes me laugh and wish he still posted but this article using his tweets cracked me up.
Yes i know it's his tweets. That's why i said it's not just him. Although whether people like him or not, he's not the only culprit. I'm a neutral myself. Live and let live, but i'd rather people didn't try to after time to annoy folk. It's not much use for people who throw fivers and tenners at horse, only to see them fall or get pipped on the line, to then come on here to threads and posts of people gloating.
I thought Judo's twitter was @rightjudgeiam .. unless that is an old one.
http://famouswonders.com/wp-content/gallery/christ-the-redeemer/christ-the-r...
Sint - that is his name you key in, but his screen name is The Judge.
Looks like a good post to me, and not at all bothered about someone claiming credit for something like that.
shockster,
thanks for that mr.basquill link, absolutely brilliant. Liked his piece on trainers, journalists and non-triers too. Best read I've had for ages.
thanks for that mr.basquill link, absolutely brilliant. Liked his piece on trainers, journalists and non-triers too. Best read I've had for ages.
Great article that
Surely those tweets are a wind up though?
Surely those tweets are a wind up though?
I think you're probably right CCM, but they do sound like Judo.
I read the article a few weeks ago on twitter and thought those tweets were made up just to illustrate his point.
can confirm I do not tweet under @TheJudge, that's nothing to do with me
some of my followers do refer to me as 'judge' though
some of my followers do refer to me as 'judge' though
Hi Rick, you only just read the above posts?!
Hope all is well with you.
Hope all is well with you.
I can confirm my friends sometimes refer to me as old twelve inches.
How did Rick do in the national and more importantly have the scum been apprehended who broke into his garage?
How did Rick do in the national and more importantly have the scum been apprehended who broke into his garage?
Just found Rick's been burgled thread. That's awful 
Eeternaloptimist 16 Aug 14 02:14
I can confirm my friends sometimes refer to me as old twelve inches. Cool
12 inches!!!....brings a whole new meaning to a foot in mouth
I can confirm my friends sometimes refer to me as old twelve inches. Cool
12 inches!!!....brings a whole new meaning to a foot in mouth
May I suggest as we say in Glasgow " Sports socks 3 pairs for a pound". Could come (no laughing at the back) in pretty handy for you while waiting for the real action to start.
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