Cheltenham Festival
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Imprortant Update 6th March
I have been reviewing the Gold Cup, again, this morning looking for some value in the race and some interesting thoughts occurred to me. Please try to stay with my ramblings here as I think there is a chance this could be valuable.
Please refer to these documents:
http://bit.ly/1fJwit1
Gold Cup Spreadsheet 2014.xls
So, with the going drying, I am becoming concerned that it may not suit Silviniaco Conti and that he may be compromised. I am already against Bobs Worth, even though he is a worthy fav, at the price and must oppose him. Last Installment may not run and I'm heavily opposed to The Giant Bolster, Long Run, Captain Chris and others. Harry Topper may also not run due to the ground.
Taking the spreadsheet I started again. Firstly, eliminate any that have not won a Grade 1 chase. This is an absolute requirement. Then any that have not won at 3 miles, any older than 10 years old and you are left with.
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
First Lieutenant
Lord Windermere
Long Run
Last Installment
Mount Benbulben
Roi Du Mee
Last Installment never raced at the course and unlikely to run. Long Run way over raced and in poor form, trying to regain and not much hope. Mount Benbulben and Roi Du Mee are not Festival types and are dismissed which leaves me with:
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
First Lieutenant
Lord Windermere
If you look at Ben Aitkens report on dosages on page 7, you will see that both Lord Windermere and First Lieutenant are a 'snug fit' for the stamina profile and Silviniaco Conti is wide of the mark.
First Lieutenant: was second to Cue Card in the Ryan Air last year and was second to Bobs Worth in the Lexus. He has raced 18 times over fences and won only 3 of them. Has been beaten 3 times from 3 when racing against Bobs Worth but has been in the frame in a Hennessey, RSA, Ryan Air and Lexus and won the Neptune Novices hurdle. He will certainly appreciate the good going. He is rated 169 over fences and 12 of the last 13 were rated 166 or higher. Struggles to win but consistent in top class races and looks set to stay the distance.
Lord Windermere: has not had a great season having been well beaten in all starts. However, he has run in the key races (Lexus, Hennessy), is a Grade 1 winner at 3 miles, a Festival winner (won RSA last year) and a second season chaser. Let me throw some stats at you:
11 of the last 22 winners were second season chasers and he is the only one that survives from trends, whilst 12 of the last 16 had finished first or second in a previous Festival. He is an RSA Chase winner and of the last 11 to try the double in the Gold Cup, 4 went on to complete it. He is a snug fit on the dosage stats from Ben.
Given the likelihood of several being withdrawn due to the going, and my opposition to the non Grade 1 winners, the older horses, those never placed at a Festival and so on, I do not feel it is beyond the realms of possibility for Lord Windermere to bounce back to form on spring ground and out run his massive odds. At 50/1, yes fifty to one, I am prepared to have a proper bet because with withdrawals and quicker going he might be a quarter of those odds on the day.
I am generally against First Lieutenant because he just does not win often enough but has the credentials to get in the frame and in doing so would cover the bet on Lord Windermere. I will now bet him ew
A word about Boston Bob. Those who were with me last year will remember we had maximum ew bets at 8/1 and looked like collecting until he fell at the last. He also fell when we smashed him at Punchestown. Had he won the RSA he would be a serious contender this year and there are rumours he may yet run. However, just 4 runs over fences including two falls is no preparation and I would have to be against him.
Betting Advice
Back LORD WINDERMERE 2 points ew at 50/1 BetVictor and others nrnb
Back FIRST LIEUTENANT 1 point ew at 16/1 nrnb
Comment
Yes, this might be speculative and the favourites might well dominate but everything has a price and 50s is too big for me. If Silviniaco Conti were to resent the track or going the race could be wide open and I have landed enough big price touches over the last 20 odd years not to be scared. We have every chance that First Lieutenant will repeat his RSA, Ryan Air and Lexus form by getting in the frame meaning lower risk on our speculative 50/1 shot.
I have not as yet backed Silviniaco Conti as I was going to switch my Cue Card money and I may not bet him at all now. If you have, do not be alarmed the horse could very easily win, this argument is just about finding value. I think I have.
I have been reviewing the Gold Cup, again, this morning looking for some value in the race and some interesting thoughts occurred to me. Please try to stay with my ramblings here as I think there is a chance this could be valuable.
Please refer to these documents:
http://bit.ly/1fJwit1
Gold Cup Spreadsheet 2014.xls
So, with the going drying, I am becoming concerned that it may not suit Silviniaco Conti and that he may be compromised. I am already against Bobs Worth, even though he is a worthy fav, at the price and must oppose him. Last Installment may not run and I'm heavily opposed to The Giant Bolster, Long Run, Captain Chris and others. Harry Topper may also not run due to the ground.
Taking the spreadsheet I started again. Firstly, eliminate any that have not won a Grade 1 chase. This is an absolute requirement. Then any that have not won at 3 miles, any older than 10 years old and you are left with.
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
First Lieutenant
Lord Windermere
Long Run
Last Installment
Mount Benbulben
Roi Du Mee
Last Installment never raced at the course and unlikely to run. Long Run way over raced and in poor form, trying to regain and not much hope. Mount Benbulben and Roi Du Mee are not Festival types and are dismissed which leaves me with:
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
First Lieutenant
Lord Windermere
If you look at Ben Aitkens report on dosages on page 7, you will see that both Lord Windermere and First Lieutenant are a 'snug fit' for the stamina profile and Silviniaco Conti is wide of the mark.
First Lieutenant: was second to Cue Card in the Ryan Air last year and was second to Bobs Worth in the Lexus. He has raced 18 times over fences and won only 3 of them. Has been beaten 3 times from 3 when racing against Bobs Worth but has been in the frame in a Hennessey, RSA, Ryan Air and Lexus and won the Neptune Novices hurdle. He will certainly appreciate the good going. He is rated 169 over fences and 12 of the last 13 were rated 166 or higher. Struggles to win but consistent in top class races and looks set to stay the distance.
Lord Windermere: has not had a great season having been well beaten in all starts. However, he has run in the key races (Lexus, Hennessy), is a Grade 1 winner at 3 miles, a Festival winner (won RSA last year) and a second season chaser. Let me throw some stats at you:
11 of the last 22 winners were second season chasers and he is the only one that survives from trends, whilst 12 of the last 16 had finished first or second in a previous Festival. He is an RSA Chase winner and of the last 11 to try the double in the Gold Cup, 4 went on to complete it. He is a snug fit on the dosage stats from Ben.
Given the likelihood of several being withdrawn due to the going, and my opposition to the non Grade 1 winners, the older horses, those never placed at a Festival and so on, I do not feel it is beyond the realms of possibility for Lord Windermere to bounce back to form on spring ground and out run his massive odds. At 50/1, yes fifty to one, I am prepared to have a proper bet because with withdrawals and quicker going he might be a quarter of those odds on the day.
I am generally against First Lieutenant because he just does not win often enough but has the credentials to get in the frame and in doing so would cover the bet on Lord Windermere. I will now bet him ew
A word about Boston Bob. Those who were with me last year will remember we had maximum ew bets at 8/1 and looked like collecting until he fell at the last. He also fell when we smashed him at Punchestown. Had he won the RSA he would be a serious contender this year and there are rumours he may yet run. However, just 4 runs over fences including two falls is no preparation and I would have to be against him.
Betting Advice
Back LORD WINDERMERE 2 points ew at 50/1 BetVictor and others nrnb
Back FIRST LIEUTENANT 1 point ew at 16/1 nrnb
Comment
Yes, this might be speculative and the favourites might well dominate but everything has a price and 50s is too big for me. If Silviniaco Conti were to resent the track or going the race could be wide open and I have landed enough big price touches over the last 20 odd years not to be scared. We have every chance that First Lieutenant will repeat his RSA, Ryan Air and Lexus form by getting in the frame meaning lower risk on our speculative 50/1 shot.
I have not as yet backed Silviniaco Conti as I was going to switch my Cue Card money and I may not bet him at all now. If you have, do not be alarmed the horse could very easily win, this argument is just about finding value. I think I have.
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Replies: 80
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Rick, do you call your own name during sex?
 Aftertiming barstard  |
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well done mate. I backed it at 33s ew this morning
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Impressive, you may be as good as you think you are. Well done.
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well done judo!!!
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I'm not aware of this thread on the 6th March and am on the site at least once a day.
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If he was an ice cream this **** would be licking himself.
Note to Judopr1ck; Real winners don't need their self esteem boosted by coming on after the race and posting the likes of this. |
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Me and Judo have had cross words in the past but I don't begrudge a man puffing his chest out for making calls like this and to be fair several others. Good luck to him.
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Why didn't he just bump the thread in which he posted that?
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i remember reading that.sadly i dint take notice of it
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I take it, its from his tipping service he runs.
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good thread for a number of reasons well done mind
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He put the winner up on the general horse racing forum under your best bet for Cheltenham thread.
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Then I apologise rick and awesome pick.
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did you use https://sites.google.com/site/gaultstats/Home rick?
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broken clock ,, twice a day
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first thing I did was build a spreadsheet with about 15 typical stats and then fill in all the data for every runner
I used racecaller, gault stats and Paul Jones to chose the trends then decided on several ways to eliminate based on what I judged the most significant actually started 28th January and went through several stages mainly due to the injury to Cue Card who was a stand out selection up to then... when the news of the injury plus the terrible run by Al Ferof at Newbury I surmised that the King George form was insignificant as I was already against the defending champion I started looking for a bet outside the top of the market |
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can you give us a link to Paul Jones rick, never heard of it?
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he's the guy that writes the book 'Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide'
he had a service for £269 or something, tipped zero winners! |
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ok thanks
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Judo
Given Cue Card liking to dominate his races and the poor record front runners have had in the longer races this week do you think this would have affected his finishing position? |
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would have pissed up
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RPR rated Lord Windermere 170 today
my prediction at the start of the season was that Cue Card would run 180 to 185 in the Gold Cup he duly ran RPR 180 in the Betfair, with no use of the whip at all had he not gone wrong after the third last in the King George I estimate he would have won by 4 to 8 lengths and done another 180+ RPR (SC got 179 as it was) so on that going I reckon he would have repeated the Haydock form and won like he did in the Ryan Air |
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nice wnr ,that.
wd GL |
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You're a man of strong opinions so I'd expect no less but my question related to the poor finishing record of horses in those longer races who took it out. I doubt Cue Card would have been happy if he wasn't taking them along, Which was the last winner to lead from early? I can't remember one.
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I can't estimate that, he would have been lobbing along in front, not tearing away at a million like King's Palace or Next Sensation, filling up on the downhill sections, most of the field flat out just to keep up and after jumping the second last I imagine Joe would have been letting him go... I think he stretches clear and stays on way too strongly
just too quick for these, when you think where the Giant Bolster finished I would expect Cue Card to smash him |
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Fair Play Judo, you might not be everyones cup of tea and you sure sometimes have a shortish fuse
 but you put the work in and deserve the plaudits here.. |
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thanks for the back handed compliment, exactly why I no longer post my bets on here
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I don't think his compliment is back handed or meant to be, he's saying well done from what I can see. And you do tend to have a short fuse when people disagree with you and/or wind you up. I am surprised with your judo training that you let it so easily irk and provoke you? Anyway great winner finding (again) so well done from me.
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Judo, can I ask, if you're no longer posting your bets on here, then why post an email message you sent to mates/subscribers of yours on the 6th of March?
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No offence Judo, but i don't know why anyone would give you single dime for your tipping service. Your picks are based on stats, which anyone can do, and your logic is often flawed. Fair play though, it must be money for old rope. I had small bets on Lyreen Legend and Lord windermere myself.
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Judo --- weve all had 50/1s
Let it go - if you keep throwing darts at the bull ......................... |
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Not having a go at you personally. I just think all tipsters are getting money for old rope.
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I don't think he charges anybody money for anything. Last year when he posted his massive thesis-like overview, he said he writes everything up for his friends and family.
He's not going to make a penny if he keeps posting tips on twitter for free.  |
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I always seem to catch the threads where Judo crows about how clever he's been, but I always seem
to miss the threads in which he was clever. With his record, I really would like to get his National tip this year. Maybe we could all agree to flag it up everywhere BEFORE the race instead of after? |
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Lads I would just like to say Judo took me under his wing and gives me his selections for FREE. Lord windemere was given days in advance to a few friends,i can understand why he doesn't post anymore as jealousy abounds on here being accused of after timing,making money out of his hard work and being told how easy it is to work on stats,if it was you should all have been on it and it would have been favourite,p.s. he also gave us the winner of the mids. grand national as well just to top of a fantastic week..
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Lads I would just like to say Judo took me under his wing and gives me his selections for FREE. Lord windemere was given days in advance to a few friends,i can understand why he doesn't post anymore as jealousy abounds on here being accused of after timing,making money out of his hard work and being told how easy it is to work on stats,if it was you should all have been on it and it would have been favourite,p.s. he also gave us the winner of the mids. grand national as well just to top of a fantastic week..
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