There is no doubt he's better on soft ground, but the ground will be fairly similar to last year, so don't think that's a big issue. I don't understand the opening comment that he has struggled this year, he's won 2 more grade 1s against the best of the Irish. I do think this is the best field he's faced though, and he will need to put up his best Cheltenham performance to win imo. Which connections seem to think is very likely.

Some serious rubbish being spouted on this thread.

Hurricane Fly is simply a top class racehorse who acts on any ground.
He has top class form on every type of going that backs that up.

Maybe others don't act so well on soft or heavy and that would give HF more chance of victory...that I can accept,but to say hes a better horse on soft is simply cr&p, and as for Mudlark.

Hes just a class act lads.
His age is possibly against him this year, and another horse could improve past him of course, but don't use the ground as a reason to try and get him beat...that wont work!!!

Beat peddlers cross by a neck??? Give up the game.... The Fly will absolutely destroy this field and if you had un de sceaux and annie power in it, the result wud be the same....

Interesting that so many people claim that this year's race is far stronger than last year. Very difficult to judge these things in advance. The bare form of what the English contenders have achieved is far below what's needed to win a Champion. We don't know if MTOY will get up the hill better than last year and we don't know if TNO is a genuine contender over two miles as the only time he's run against a top two miler over that distance he was beaten (please don't bring up Rock on Ruby at Kempton).
I remember the excitement a few years back when Detroit City (6/4) and Straw Bear (7/1) from England faced up to the might of Hardy Eustace (3/1) and Brave Inca (11/2) for Ireland in what was heralded as a classic. In the event, Detroit City never went a yard, Straw Bear showed himself to be miles off that class and the two Irish horses cut each others' throats and they were all chinned by Sublimity.
Yes, a potential classic ahead but lets not get carried away too soon.

The bare form of what the English contenders have achieved is far below what's needed to win a Champion

Bolloxx.

I have been against the great Fly for this all season and with a solid pace now looking likely and decent ground also likely, I am more against him than ever. They'll go too quick early and midway through the race, and the class opposition will be too much at a track he doesn't like. Personally would be surprised if Our Conor doesn't finish ahead of him, and that might not even be enough for that mighty young contender to win the race.

He is the horse of a lifetime and if he wins I will be there to cheer him in and will hold my hands up and admit I was massively wrong.

I am 100% with you Tom and the horse is even more fantastic than I thought if he pulls it off.

pedro, if you use a single horse to devalue the form, then how do you account for TNO against Jumps Road?

Thats true Pedro but they will all have to improve to beat HF and thats a fact m8

People are forgettin ghte two horses behind TNO & MTOY at Kempton are rated 150 and 147. They were pumped 28 lengths. These two horse will fight out the finish. They are progressing.

Marito and Captain Cee Bee would be rounding the home turn in the xmas hurdle after these two had jumped the last. Different gravy to these things the Fly has been running against.

Thats true Pedro but they will all have to improve to beat HF and thats a fact m8

yet if you analyse the sectionals from Chelt last year, both TNO and MTOY will wipe the floor with Hurricane Fly.

Many will say the Champion was more strongly run mid-race, but as have written elsewhere, Hurricane had the easiest run of the first four home, yet was all out to score in not beating them by far. Those held up were beaten even further so didn't benefit from being held up off a supposed strong pace. The Champion form has also been devalued constantly since.

It's absolutely clear Hurricane needs a slow pace / sprint to win against a probably stone better field then last year .... anything else and his chances recede dramatically.

As has been said before, Pedro, by that reckoning Medinas, who ran the same course as TNO an hour later in 5.5 seconds quicker, carrying 3 lbs more, is a great champion (not to mention the horses that followed him home.) Every race is different; pointless to pick out random sectionals to make an argument.
As for using Sametegal as a yardstick - that really is clutching at straws. A horse who's regressing rapidly.

TNO was made favourite for this years race after he beat Rule The World and an out of sorts Pont Alex and then finished a length ahead of Thousand Stars when beaten by Zarkander. TNO is a chaser. Its a joke he has been the favourite for this race. He does not jump hurdles properly either and if he is still anyway in contention at the last he will fluff it on Tuesday. He'll be in the RSA next year against Annie Power.

Arklearkle...all you've quoted there is last year's form. He's since blown Zarkandar away and took Rock on Ruby's head off. He was a novice at Aintree. You're not seriously telling me he hasn't improved this year?

Didn't beat Zarkander with anything like the authority that Annie Power did. And he does seem to be in decline.

The Fly doesn't have any flaws.He may have been first off the bridle last year but came back onto it again,at which point it was all over bar the shouting.He is not ground dependent.He is the toughest horse in training which makes his true ability so hard to gauge.When beaten 2 years ago he just wasn't right(fell in next time in Punchestown from Zaidpour I think).It wasn't the ground,it wasn't the ride he got,he just wasn't right,couldnt quicken and his pure toughness got him third.
I rate him the best I've seen without any doubt.I havnt seen any noticeable decline in him this year.Maybe he has and we will find out on Tuesday but to me he's looked to have had plenty up his sleeve every time this year again.
One thing is for certain,if he is even within 5 lbs of his peak-self he will win again,cos of the 4 pretenders,none stand out from the rest.I doubt very much if 4 superstars have come along at the same time seeing as we've only had 2 in the last 30 years.

5/1? That's funny. Or maybe we should have a spread bet. I'll buy shorter than 5/1 off you.  Should have taken it, and other who were so rude.

6/1 now available with a major booky tomorrow. And you scoffed when I predicted 5/1.

I hope the Hurricane fans waited a while for the proper price!

The 6/1 is a limited offer. You should not confuse Cheltenham specials with true market value

He is far and away best Ive seen IMO

The best I ever saw was Night Nurse, although a few more nearly as good were Monksfield, Comedy of Errors, Lanzarote, and especially the brilliant but ill fated Golden Cygnet. I also think Istabraq was better.

The Hurricane is a great hurdler though. Its just I am old and remeber the real golden age of hurdlers, and they were very good.