Cheltenham Festival
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It's pretty solid sunshine from now in and likely to end up as good to soft on the first day.
This is no good at all for the mud loving Hurricane, and he is looking like a huge drifter. Too old so win another champion hurdle, having really struggled this season, and against new up and comers like The New One, My Tent and especially Our Connor, he looks very vulnerable. Those wanting to keep faith with him - hang on to your money. He will be 5/1 on the day if there is no rain.
I quite hope he loses too. The stable has not run their horses on merits. Annie should have taken her chance in the champion hurdle. We have been robbed of the chance of seeing her take her true place at the top table, instead she is being asked to run up the hill over 3 miles, a test that may beyond her stamina. Serves the stable right if they miss out in both races.
This is no good at all for the mud loving Hurricane, and he is looking like a huge drifter. Too old so win another champion hurdle, having really struggled this season, and against new up and comers like The New One, My Tent and especially Our Connor, he looks very vulnerable. Those wanting to keep faith with him - hang on to your money. He will be 5/1 on the day if there is no rain.
I quite hope he loses too. The stable has not run their horses on merits. Annie should have taken her chance in the champion hurdle. We have been robbed of the chance of seeing her take her true place at the top table, instead she is being asked to run up the hill over 3 miles, a test that may beyond her stamina. Serves the stable right if they miss out in both races.
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And yes I am talking through my pocket. I did think though that they would have seen sense.
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He's smashed Our Conor twice already..... won't be any different next week. MTOY won't get up the hill. TNO might make him work hard, but can't see the champ losing
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It sounds more like you are talking through your arse to me
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Forget about how old he is. He's only a couple of months older than his last run, which he won comfortably. He's a top horse, and has to have a big chance. Haven't backed him myself, but he's the champion.
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Some threads on betfair still make me smile. Mud loving Hurricane
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5/1? That's funny. Or maybe we should have a spread bet. I'll buy shorter than 5/1 off you.
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I think 6/4 him to go off fav is a cracking bet and I've had a big cut at that. Going for his 3rd Champion Hurdle, Ruby/Mullins could have a winner on the board already by the time he runs. Customary for us Irish to pile into him at the track like every year. The other horses will have their fans but this lad will be smashed up as always. Should be odds on to be fav.
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I think he is better suited by a soft ground race. His opponents are likely to benefit from an improvement in ground conditions while he might improve to, he won't to the same extent as the others.
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Of the main contenders, I am shocked at just how short a price Our Conor is. Should be 8/1+.
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Our Conor is my back-up choice to My Tent or Yours. I think there's a feeling out there that he'll improve for a variety of reasons:
1. Better ground 2. The track 3. Hughes will have him ready for the big day ala Hardy Eustace 2004. It's all speculation though. He definitely needs to improve. The 2lbs he got from Hurricane Fly and Jezki in the Irish Champion should not be forgotten about either. |
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CVByrne
05 Mar 14 23:07 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 3,984 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog Some threads on betfair still make me smile. Mud loving Hurricane would you not argue he is a far superior horse on soft ground??? laugh all you want C.V he is imo a mud lark who would be inconvenienced by good ground but has handled it in weaker races...would you say he will perform to the same high level if it were good ground next week |
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When Our Conor destroyed the oppo in the Triumph it was soft ground and hammering down with rain. I don't see why ground has been against him in Ire. His price is all about what is expected rather than anything else.
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It was Soft when HF won last year, too. He got beat the year it was GS.
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A mud lark? Jeezo same people will no doubt say he isn't that good at Cheltenham.
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The Fly supposedly not a good traveller....
....raced only 3 times outside Ireland.. 2 CH wins would seem to put that theory to bed...but "not right" when 3rd to ROR....still leaves some room for doubt... Got outpaced down the hill last year...then allowed to get back into it. Far stronger field, with a faster pace on spring ground could see the 10yo first off the bridle again.. Not for me at the price. |
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He only had one run when he was 3rd so obv bad prep. (Big bucks is goin down in similar fashion)
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Its not just the ground that's gone against The Fly, there's also the supplementation of Captain CeeBee. So potentially, a fast run race on goodish ground. I'm sure the Fly would prefer a crawl on soft.
There's doubts about MTOY though, and I'm confident the Irish will smash into it. Hope so, I want to lay it cheap before the off. |
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I was joking a bit about him being a mud lark as he tends to run in soft or heavy ground mostly - well he is an Irish hurdler. However if you look at his form he did seriously disappoint in Rock On Ruby's good going champion and his very best efforts do seem to be on heavy going.
Of course there may be reasons why he ran badly before on good ground but I can see not a single bit of form on good ground that matches his admittedly champion form on boggy ground. I see he is already drifting on here, .2 points already with more to come. He is already second favourite, and may yet struggle to go off in the first 2 in the betting. Not saying he cannot win, but he will be a longer price the dryer the ground |
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same as mary hope they pile into fly an gonna lay and place lay!
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11113 on good ground.
The 3rd being after a poor prep. One of the wins in a good ground champion hurdle. |
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what year was the good ground!
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so your saying ballydoyle
his form indicates that he is just as effective on good ground, as he is on soft/heavy?? correct or not?? |
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He's as good on good ground as he is on heavy, the difference is more of his rivals are troubled by bad ground which increases his chances in those races. Still his best ever performance came on good ground at Punchestown in 2011.
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harry callaghan 06 Mar 14 22:17 Joined: 10 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 2,586 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
CVByrne 05 Mar 14 23:07 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 3,984 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog Some threads on betfair still make me smile. Mud loving Hurricane would you not argue he is a far superior horse on soft ground??? laugh all you want C.V he is imo a mud lark who would be inconvenienced by good ground but has handled it in weaker races...would you say he will perform to the same high level if it were good ground next week This again makes me smile. Fly, a mudlark!! He's won 2 Champion Hurdles on g2s / good ground. Along with a few more at Punchestown on good. Horse is just a class act. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and I'm forever thankful for the negative opinions that have constantly surrounded this horse mainly in England as it has resulted in fantastic odds and profits from backing him over the years. I'm just looking forward to Tuesday. Glad Captain Cee Bee is entered, will be a good gallop set and no going too quick too early like last year or too slow. Will be proper run race. |
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Okay if you want to get into detail, he got stuffed on his first 4 starts on good ground before finally getting going on some nice boggy ground. Having won 2 soft ground races he then ran poorly a few times on good ground.
He did win once on good to firm but this was a maiden hurdle. Aside from that his best good ground form was when scrapping home from Solwit on good ground, and just scraping home in a desperate finish from Pedlar's Cross. His only other runs on good ground since have been when running badly (for him) against Rock on Ruby. His brilliant form when the mud really flies is in stark contrast to his form when the going is better. I think he is going to drift (already is) and serious professionals with real eye for the form book will certainly not be interested in backing him at shorter than 5/1 if at all. |
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fair comment that C.V in regards ground
however i still think the figure given that day was ridiculous considering most of them had run at aintree or ran badly in there last run or were over the top he has always been hard to gauge for me because of all his victories against thousand stars and solwhit but his best performances were against solwhit imo who i also regarded as a top notcher in his own right, who also loved soft |
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You gonna put some up then try 4/1 see what happens!
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sintonian 06 Mar 14 22:25 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 23,133 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
It was Soft when HF won last year, too. He got beat the year it was GS. If you believe that going then you've still got a bit to learn about racing sint. Have a dig around about times and how they are best indicator of official going. Don't trust one man and his going stick. Last year was quicker ground than 2011. |
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CVByrne
He is certainly a much undervalued horse, indeed he is a great champion. He is though on the evidence of the form book a better horse on deep going and the opposition this year looks a deal more challenging than when he ran on good ground against Solwit (won by a neck) , Peddlars Cross (won by a neck) and Rock On Ruby (back in 3rd place) |
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he'll have a job stevo some footballer wants over 20k on
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hes deff a better horse on soft that's for sure the ground this year will be a lot quicker and imo will catch him out against his younger rivals
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Anyways cant wait to find out should be a cracking race.
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Harry for me his best performance was routing the field in 2011 on good ground at Punchestown. Ruby was looking through his legs as Fly sauntered by. Horse is just a class act and the best thing is he just wins, whatever way the race is run, what ever happens he just finds a way to win.
Ruby Walsh has given him 2 bad rides back to back at Cheltenham. I think with Captain Cee Bee in there Ruby will know what is going to happen as the others will. Going to just be a case of best horse wins. To my eye it's still Hurricane Fly, but I know from experience age usually rears its head first in the cauldron of Cheltenham. You just never know until the race is run if time has caught up. Can't wait for Tuesday, am looking forward to every race that day. |
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It's that time of year again when the doubters are out in force.
Doesn't travel Doesn't get up the hill And this years installment, he's a mudlark  . |
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Forgot Montjeus don't win at Cheltenham as well!
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cryoftruth 06 Mar 14 22:53 Joined: 22 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 3,096 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
CVByrne He is certainly a much undervalued horse, indeed he is a great champion. He is though on the evidence of the form book a better horse on deep going and the opposition this year looks a deal more challenging than when he ran on good ground against Solwit (won by a neck) , Peddlars Cross (won by a neck) and Rock On Ruby (back in 3rd place) Did you leave out Punchestown 2011 on purpose as it was his best ever performance and so would not help your argument against him acting on good ground? You put in Solwhit from 2010 race so wonder why you left out 2011 Horse is just a complete legend. 3 career losses, and only 1 since 2009 !!! Anyway, he's a 10yo we've all got opinions formed on him by now that are not going to Change. I just hope the best horse wins on Tuesday. I am a big fan of Champions going down fighting to the younger new brigade and not retiring at the top. |
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stevo1 06 Mar 14 22:56 Joined: 21 Oct 06 | Topic/replies: 2,367 | Blogger: stevo1's blog
Anyways cant wait to find out should be a cracking race. Aye, so glad CCB has been supplemented. Can't wait. |
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Gents,
This whole saga with the Fly makes me laugh.I'm sure CV Byrne will concur. WM have dropped 2 of the best horses in his stable (Both would come close to winning this CH imo)for this one horse. I suspect like us all people have taken their position against the Fly & are just trying to convince themselves. WM is a serious horse trainer & the Irish take racing seriously. they have no room for sentiment. Last year the 'straw grabbers' was crabbing that he was 9yr old & stats said it was impossible for him to beat his juniors. The latest crab is the state of the ground. Looking the at the form HF stands head & shoulders above the other participants and the Irish duly expect him to deliver. Ruby Walsh is a tactical genius & I suspect come Tuesday afternoon will all see why AP & UDS were taken out of this race. I may be bias as the Fly is my favourite all time horse. Remember these words... The Irish do not deal with sentiment & I believe HF & Ruby will fully dismantle the English horses. Best of luck with all bets. |