HOW FAR WILL LAST INSTALMENT WIN THE GOLD CUP BY?

Wont even place Bobs worth wins

If the ground dries out you'd have to question whether he will even be there.

4-5 lengths ahead of 5th maybe but erm that's it...3rd race in 3 months...watch him bounce all the way up the run in. If he turns up of course

This another cert Clarky like Ruby Walsh riding a winner for Paul Nicholls at the Festival?

How much NEEDLE will it get?

I think it might well win, and would be shocked if it doesn't run. Even if the ground is good, I think they'll chance it. He's fully effective on quicker ground, for what it's worth, which makes the carrot of a Gold Cup victory all the more tempting (it would be understandable if they wanted to mind him because of previous injuries and he didn't act on decent ground, but only the first part of that is true).

More importantly, the form he showed in blitzing them in the Hennessy is up there with the best of what we've seen this season (behind only Silviniaco Conti's King George win in my opinion). He is a phenomenal jumper, which counts for a lot, he quickens smartly and looks like stamina will not be an issue. more importantly now, he won't be fighting Cue Card for the lead. This horse is a massive player now. As I type I am talking myself into a decent bet!

stamina wont be an issue after all the roids he,s been on for two years

Cant see it taking part.

is it unfortunate for connections?, go to a Ryanair check in desk and explain to all the travellers what a lovely guy oleary is then run as fast as you can, will oleary let this run and run you betya he will, for the good of the festival or not.

Unfortunate for connections my arse. Horse shouldnt be running. End of.

I must say it was nice of the bha to inform everyone of their impeding arrival

Horse will run and would not be surprised if he ran out an easy winner. He has all the form.

Yes Alleged.  Wouldn't want to turn up unannounced, look what trouble that has caused.

Hope he gets ****

Last Instalment doesn't worry me to be honest. Can't really see how he can beat Bobs Worth or Silviniaco Conti myself. Beating a 13yo 8 lengths who was pumped 30 in the Betfair then beat in a handicap isn't that big a deal IMO

In fact I'd take it further by saying 7-1 is fooking rubbish lol

Esp if Clarky is on it

No disrespect intended of course...all fun n games

Controls the pace, quickens coming down the hill, jumps them silly

...gets booed back to the winners enclosure....fails the drugs test.

So beating a 13yo means he's gonna easily beat the Cheltenham specialist and easy King George winner? WALOFS

Bobs Worth is a very worthy favourite and no surprise to see him win but he is 7/4 and Last Instalment is 9/1 on here. Bobs was rank bad in the Betfair and then quietly impressive in the Lexus. Still, he beat First Lieutenant by a little over a length whereas the 9/1 alternative pulverised that same horse last time. First Lieut might not have run his race the last day, but then again, maybe he did. The ground was the same as in the Lexus.

Anyway, the point is that Last Instalment is the best jumper and will control the pace here. No surprise to see him take them along at nothing more than a gentle one and then wind it up from the front, which will put pressure on Bobs' and Conti's jumping (the latter is obviously a top-notcher but he fell last year and might not want this to be tactical either as he is a very sound stayer).

Tidal Bay might be 13 but he is a mid-160 horse when on his game. Whichever way you rate the Hennessy, Last Instalment is a very good horse and he looked value for more than the winning margin. For the doubters, I suggest watching it again. He injects an impressive turn of foot to take lengths out of them in a few strides on turning in and should still be improving given his light workload in recent seasons (and this).

Nonsensical for people to boo him if he wins. Obviously the trainer has a lot of questions to answer, but even if he is guilty, it might very well not be for this horse. Also, I suspect we're all being very naive if we think Fenton is the only trainer allowing vets to use steroids (if he even did - he is still innocent at this stage let's remember) when building horses back from injury.

Very well put Tom

There may be some questions over the ground and distance but LI is the class horse in the field no matter where you look. Even as a novice he beat First Lieut quite readily also.

He's the class horse in the field with the reigning Gold Cup n King George winners in there?you sure?

Time will tell. Not long ago PFN was telling us that Silviniano

Never ran at Cheltenham either...7s is a shocker man!

Time will tell. Not long ago PFN was telling us that Chelts would not suit Conti and he may be right. Besides he couldnt beat First Lieut at Aintree last year either whereas BW and LI are tired beating him. I agree BW has proved everything but at the prices?

Apparently they are doing a hair test on Last Instalment,and is that right that anything up to a year can be detetected??

Would be nice to know all is above board before the horse lines up in the Gold Cup.

Incidentally, anyone know why The Tullow Tank was withdrawn so quickly?? And will he be tested as well??

6 months I believe budd

Pretty sure drugs can be detected in hair for up to six months so it would obviously have to be older, longer hair i.e from tail or mane as the coat is usually clipped fairly regularly.

Don't be surprised if LI turns up on the Friday with a very short tail and his mane cropped to a buzz cut

Cheers lads. Would not have a clue myself, but it would be nice to know the horse has not been interfered with for at least a year,maybe not at all. And if it cannot be proved hes taken anything, then i guess he will be ok to run.
I want him to run as hes my biggest winner of the week,but i do want it all to be above board.

I would have LI, Conti, and would have had Cue Card over Bob's Worth in this.  Bob's is a shocking price, and can't see why he is half the price of Conti.  It's his previous festival form that has him as favourite, when on this years races, Conti and LI should be ahead of him.

^^^ Cue a torrent of abuse from Bobs Worth backers

Yep, this seasons form has Bob behind those 2,absolutely.

Well Festival form is clearly very relevant. He deserves to be favourite, being the reigning champ and 3/3 at the Festival, but I'd agree that he's plenty short enough.

Just want to point out that I have nothing against Bobs at all.  What's there not to like about a tough little battler like him?

It's just that repeat Gold Cup winners are extremely rare, and Conti and LI have performed better this season; its as simple as that.  The question marks about Henderson and his yard have to enter the equation as well, because he's had a very poor season by his standards.

It has to come down to price, and even though there is no Cue Card, I can't see how anyone would go in at 7/4.

Cue Card had no chance anyway unless they took 3 furlongs off but Bobs Worth is the Cheltenham horse.Last Instalment never even ran there and ok won the Hennessey but beating a 13yo and First Lieutenant who hated the ground and who never wins fook all along with other dogs isn't the best to be honest.

I'm sure the Irish Hennesssey is a Mickey Mouse trial as well for this no?

Jodami and Imperial Call back on the days that even Liverpool won the league?

Bally you have to go further back than that to find the Scousers winning the league.

It has been off late.
LI could be a War of Attrition but he could also be a Beef or Salmon.I hope he stays in Ireland so i don't have to back him.

I should have added I backed Bobsworth at 6/1 after the Haydock run, is I thought it meant bugger all and am on Last Instalment at 14/1 NRNB with Ladcrooks.

As for my 'Ruby to ride a festival winner for Nicholls' bet. I backed it at 4/1 not 1/4...

Hope this helps...

Should've been 40/1...hope this helps....be lucky to ride for Nicholls let alone win on one

You're a genius Ballydoyle... Pointing this out 6 months after the bet was placed...

Would be very surprised if he didn't line up on the day. Obviously very keen to run if they invited BHA over to test him! Bobs Worth is very short now and SC is possibly even more ground dependant than LI. If LI is not value then who is Ballydoyle?

Bally is sounding a tad grumpy Having a pop on a few threads at the moment.

You alright Bally???

I wonder if some of us are missing the obvious and that 7-4 Bobs Worth is a good price. I don't fancy him either but 3 from 3 at the festival his nearest market rivals having no decent form. When you think back to Kauto Star in his second Gold Cup being odds on against Denman. Bobs Worth is probably the value.

6/1 Bobsworth is better

Last Instalment one of the best jumpers of a fence have seen over 3m+ in years. Very rare  that a chaser takes a half length or more out of Grade 1 opponents who jump well themselves

Think he will jump these silly, especially Bobs Worth who is actually a very ordinary jumper for this level. Bobs heart, relentless galloping on the flat and stamina manage to keep him in the contest, but if he's in the same form as Hennessy (or better as his trainer suggests), expect Last Instalment to be away and gone at the bottom of the hill. He is a much better horse than Sir Des Champs or Long Run who finished 2nd and 3rd in the Gold Cup last year

Put it this way, if LI had run in the Lexus and put up the same performance as he did in the Hennessy, Bobs would now be trading at 5 or 6/1 for the Gold Cup.... having finished an honourable 2nd to LI who would be trading as fav right now

Budd...I'm excited man. Not long now...I'm just not amused at how Fenton is allowed to run anything at the moment to be honest. Fooking trainer has cost me a couple of thousands in fun coupons with the flaming Tullow Tank who I was all over. As you know I've got 40s on Silvi, 7-2 Bobs, 33s harry, 25s Lord W and 50s Rocky in this so could back the whole field lol

yep,not long now mate!!

Im still puzzled why owner took TTT out so quickly to be honest......does he know something about his horse he don't want others too??
Re Last Instalment and his other horses, I would think the correct decision will be reached, once all the results are in.

If there was nothing going on The Tullow Tank would surely have ran? The owner doesn't seem to be standing up for his trainer who is by law, innocent until proved guilty.

Well, if you own a horse that has a fair chance of winning at Chelt,why pull him out if you don't need to?? Would you not let the authorities make that decision for you??

Just makes me feel hes something to hide,may not of course, but rather suspicious imo

Yep me too and having been on Tullow Tank at 14s & 11s with Faugheen 11.5 I had that banked to be honest. Neptune doesn't look too hot this year with Pipe's tail swisher as 2nd fav. Got back up to Faugheen with Deputy Dan at 16s and L Colonel at 25s now

Budd - If Connell has something to hide then so does Fenton!!!!  Even if mine don't win, I don't want Fentons.  It'll be terrible for Cheltenham if his win.  Worse still if he's proven guilty week after.

40s on Silvi my @rse!

Posted on Stevo1s thread


Ballydoyle 16 Dec 13 00:25 Joined: 23 Feb 02 | Topic/replies: 2,766 | Blogger: Ballydoyle's blog
My full list is quiet compared to yesteryears at this stage but will look to add as I go along :

King George & Gold Cup double - Silviniaco Conti 40/1

Supreme - West Wizard 8/1 and 16/1

Champ Hurdle - The New One 7/1 My Tent or Yours 7/1

RSA - Ballycasey 10/1 Shuttheferontdoor 25/1 and 16/1

Gold Cup - First Lieutenant 20/1 Harry Topper 33/1 Lord Windermere 25/1
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bet placed with William Hill on 10th December

Hope this helps...as you would say

I like the way you post the ones that have shortened right up!

Surely Fentons horses will test clean.

He was caught 2 years ago with these drugs. (Why it has taken so long to become public, heaven only knows). So if he kept administering the dope after being caught he is incredibly daft.

I'd have the fire crews on standby just in case Last Instalment sets fire to the grandstand if he farts during the parade.

not bad...

Clarky - all my picks for the whole of the festival are on that same thread.

Connell has taken his horse out on principle because he doesn't want it running whilst under the cloud of suspicion and stigma, he's also doing right by the trainer and keeping his horse with him and that fact shows his support for the trainer....connell has taken a better stance than gigginstown have.

OP is just plain wrong.


It should be 'By how far will Last Instalment win the Gold Cup?'

Ending the sentence with a preposition is something up with which I will not put.

I blame Yoda myself

Maybe Duffy, guess im a tad more suspicious than you.

As an owner who had nothing to hide I would wait for the official testing to take place.
Fenton,o'Connell and Gigginstown might be totally innocent in this matter for all we know.

And if they are,then why should horses not run??
And why take a horse out straight away???

barry connell made a big mistake here.
If he has his horse tested and is clear, like Gigginstown hope for, why shouldn't he run?

By withdrawing his horse, he hasn't supported Philip Fenton at all..... unless Fenton has told him he has given his horses banned substances.... in which case presumably he should remove his horses from the yard immediately?

I dont believe TTT was going to win anyway so it perhaps was easy to withdraw him. In similar circumstances would he have withdrawn Our Conor. Perhaps though am being unfair to BC who does seem a genuine guy (a scarce commodity enough).

easy to say that but double grade one winner in a field where none have done that says that he would have went bloody close.

Of course he's supporting the trainer because he has not presumed guilt on him by keeping the horse with him.

However he doesn't want his horse running whilst the case is pending as his horse would fall under the finger of suspicion in the public's eye even though his horse is most likely clean, it looks as if that sort of thing matters to him and it looks like he feels that even if his horse won now it would feel somehow ruined, it's a more emotional stance.

Hope that is the case duffy.

But I know some are wondering other things, like why pull him out so quick?, does he know something about the horse he don't want others to. He did not seem to even think about it!! just pulled him out straight away.
Does Leave a bit of suspicion imo.

Anyway, lets see how the tests do.

So Budd, you must be suspicious of Fenton if Connell is suspicious.  Therefore, only answer is to pull all Fentons horses.

However he doesn't want his horse running whilst the case is pending

Duffy, would you not be satisfied if the BHA testing shows negative results including hair samples?

Shock,
I would think we are all a bit suspicious of all involved in this.

I just think if the owners don't know, then why pull them out before they do know??

If nothing has proved to have happened with these horses, surely the public will be fine with them running.

If its proved otherwise, then of course all horses involved don't run for x amount of time.

budd even if the samples come back negative that does not prove that steroids were not taken, it just proves that they are not in the system now.

Well the hair test,so ive been told, goes back a year??
If that's negative, we accept it,dont we??

Otherwise what do we do every time theres a suspicion that cannot be proved??

if the samples come back negative that does not prove that steroids were not taken....

it certainly doesn't prove that steroids were taken either.... so on this basis you would not want Fenton to be able to run his horses?

None of us have the full facts, but what does seem clear is that Fenton had unmarked bottles of Anabolic Steroids on his premises.  Question is: Why were they there and why were they unmarked?

There can only be 1 reason they were unmarked!!!!! Unless of course the labels had just fallen off!!!!!!!!


IMHO it will cause too much of a scandal if his horses win.   I would be gutted if I was on Ante Post at fancy prices though.

Best look at it as it is.
We don't need to look at it through bets placed.

A suspicion is aroused and an investigation is taking place.

We then abide by the results of the investigation.

Of course the tests will come negative - the 'bottles' were discovered in 2012 ffs

find it difficult to follow the ( drug position ) , only vets surely can jag the horse 's . that said if a dodgy staff member or visitor for some reason feeds horse something the trainers liable for what he has allowed to happen on his premises .  unmarked bottle or receptical for same on premises not good for staff not to know what  they contain  ...must be clearly marked .   trainers can send samples  to weatherby's for analysis prior to running a horse from  stable if trainer is unsure  ...done by a vet ???..he keeps some trainer , and unit to drug testers operation  similar as watering down say vodka  , local councils have an operation , that goes about checking in licensed premise ..  same idea ..licensed v   as stable  ..?

Ilium Stanabolic

this can be bought over the net. google Ilium Stanabolic