You could be right Harry, re Kid Cassidy, but my gut feeling is, if they thought he was a proper G1 horse, they would of campaigned him accordingly.  As much as JP likes a plot, he hasn't had a proper Champion Chase horse in years, so if they thought he was good enough, they would have sent him down this route long ago, rather than trying to protect his handicap mark.



not at all well chief the horse is reaching his peak at the age of 8 and was rightly campaigned as a handicapper earlier in his career and also clearly struggles with his breathing and his keeness, but they knew they had to exploit his mark...the owner himself is a plotter with most of his horses that aren't quite up to grade, that is a fact hence them protecting him, plus what was the point in running nice races in better company and blowing his mark...i ask you look at the ground he had to travel in last years grand annual, it is a despicable ride

If they wanted him fit, they could have just thrown him in a jumpers bumper like MTOY, rather than sending him all the way to Ireland to let him finish in his own time.

this is what i meant about knowing the horse, he only has one run in him on the back of a break, hence him bouncing in ireland, he probably could of won a bumper like MTOY and won but that would of ruined his one run as he needs to be fresh

this horse has always been keen but appears to be settling better and if the breathing is ok he will surprise a few imo...agree though he has plenty to find but not a huge amount if you take SDG out

I'm afraid SDG hasn't beaten much at all - and is at his best away from Chelt. Look at how Bennefficient mopped up much of this field (and put Kid Cassidy in his place) at the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown - a course renowned as being a good Cheltenham simulator. Won at the festival last year and I really think it will again, if connections decide to go for this over the Ryanair. Lump on NRNB - nothing to lose and everything to gain.

looks like benefficient will go ryannair judging by the betting...can only see 10 runners myself

I think Special Tiara will run a good race at a price will come on for better ground. Has run well in defeat at the course. Doubts about a few. 25/1 lively outsider imo

Why is Captain Conan a shocking price?
The likely runners according to the betfair market are (with my subjective opinion): -

Sire De Grugy - Deserves to be favourite as he has best form and has progressed throughout this season. It could be argued he hit the front too soon against Kid Cassidy, gave him 10 lbs and his jumping was very sketchy that day and yet he still almost won. He has improved a lot since then and chances are his jumping won't be as bad as it was that day but he has a long hard season to overcome and will Garry Moore be able to produce him to peak on the big day - those would be bigger concerns for me than the track itself.
Arvika Leggeonaire - All his best form is right handed and over the other side of the Irish Sea. Two unplaced efforts at Prestbury Park, I think it will be the same result regardless of any tweaks that have been put into place.
Kid Cassidy - Looks a glorified handicapper, I don't think he will fair any better than Fota Island who was a better horse. Grand Annual winners/placed horses generally don't win the Champion Chase.
Captain Conan - Course and distance winner, his 3 races over 2 miles over fences in this country read 113 (the third in the Tingle Creek when undercooked). He beat Sire De Grugy in their novice days over C & D (granted a lot of water has gone under the bridge since and SDG has improved but I always respect the market and Captain Conan was 11/10 fav that day SDG was 7/2). When they reopposed in the Tingle Creek they were 7/4 joint favourites so again the market respected Captain Conan. SDG comprehensively reversed the form but I felt Captain Conan jumped well and ran well for a long way and it was interesting to read that Henderson felt he was way below his best. He went for a gallop this week and reportedly put in a very nice piece of work. The Tingle Creek is generally the race that the winner of the Champion Chase ran in earlier in the season. It is the trial. Even Voy Por Ustedes finished a remote second in this race when he won a below par renewal back in 2007. Both Captain Conan and Sire De Grugy ran in the race earlier in the season and as mentioned above were 7/4 joint favourites. I think the form can be reversed in the Champion Chase, not because Sire De Grugy doesn't like the undulating track at Cheltenham (I don't buy that argument) but because the fences put his jumping under the upmost pressure and there is a chance Captain Conan will put in an excellent round of jumping which would put even more pressure on Sire De Grugy to put in a clear round. You have to factor in that Nicky Henderson has a fantastic record at the Cheltenham Festival, Captain Conan has had a very light campaign this season so comes into it nice and fresh and I would trust him to have the horse ready to peak otherwise he wouldn't be running. Barry Gereighty is arguably the finest jockey of a 2 mile chaser (others will claim it's Ruby Walsh) and he has an excellent record in small fields so suddenly Captain Conan has a lot going for him, especially at the current prices.
Baily Green - Thoroughly exposed 2 miler, you have to respect Mouse Morris given he is one of the best trainers at preparing and conditioning a horse to peak for the festival but his second to Simonsig overrated his ability in my opinion as Simonsig was a sick horse way below his best and still beat him.
Special Tiara - Very in and out but he is a Grade 1 Winner and looks like the type to either run a blinder or get pulled up. He is the interesting horse at a price but every man and his dog can see that.
Sizing Europe - 12 years old. Come on, if Moscow Flyer couldn't do it then as good as Sizing Europe has been, he isn't either given how much he has regressed.
Hinterland (could be re routed here)- Well held by Captain Conan but should run well.

I think Sire De Grugy will have an SP of 9/4 and I think Captain Conan will have an SP between 11/4-7/2 and my own feeling is that they will finish first and second with the current value very much in the favour of Captain Conan so I therefore strongly disagree that Captain Conan is a shocking price at 6/1-7/1 given the likely field of runners.

Racing is all about opinions but I can only see three winners myself and will hold my hands up if I'm wrong;
Sire De Grugy - Form/progressive horse and deservedly favourite.
Captain Conan - Connections wouldn't run him unless they felt he was ready to peak, always been respected in the market in previous races and I think is the horse with the potential to improve the most.
Special Tiara - The dark horse (although fairly obvious) and could do a Newmill if on a going day to blaze a trail.

think he's still living on his hyped up novice season when he was getting compared to Sprinter Sacre back at home. At best I can see him running to a mid 160's mark but thats being generous, at the prices it has to be Sizing Europe each way. even at his old age I can see him putting up a high 160s performance and making a place. He can do a Well Chief and place imo.

I've taken the view that 16/1 EW coming 2nd or 3rd is like a 2/1 winner, personally think this is a much healthier bet than backing the fav to win at 9/4 not to mention if Sizing Europe was to do the unthinkable and win.

Sizing Europe seems pretty solid to me in this weak QMCC. Great EW bet which is saying nothing for the opposition.