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With Sprinter Sacre out, who wins the QM?
With Sprinter Sacre out, who wins the QM?
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Replies: 94
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Think it's now a layers race.
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I've no idea really, think SDG is too short given his course form even though it's only two runs but most of the others have question marks about them.
If you take the view that Sizing Europe is regressing and that Sprinter was extra terrestrial last year, then Wishfull Thinking might not be the worst idea, not sure he's a certain runner though. |
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Yeah definitely a good price at 50s in a sub standard year. Plenty of room to manouevre with that price.
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The QM winner can be seen on ATRs in the next 10 minutes in racecourse warm up at Plumpton
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That the one that Kid Cassidy cruised by laughing at in November?
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had 46 arvika and 44 hinterland for small money a while back almost forgot about it happy with it now !
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Not been anything cruising past SDG lately. Genuine favourite for The QM and I expect the current price will be the best AV'
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Sizing Europe will now be aimed here according to trainer. Sadly, I don't think he has the speed for 2m any longer and would have been better placed to pick up some prize money in the Ryanair.
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Don't agree Quvega. I can easily ignore Sizing Europes last run and he was clearly 2nd only to Sprinter last year. This race is average at best and his course form is brilliant. Well worth an EW bet IMO. Admittedly it doesn't say too much for the rest of the field if he beats them at 12, but far from impossible.
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Would be great to see him win QM again and agree, last year if SS had been out, he would have been clear fave. I just feel this year he has not travelled with his usual ease through a race. Age catches up with all of us and some of the younger legs will, I feel, be too speedy for him. Sure he will run with credit but I find it hard to see him winning.
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12 years old...too old surely. Great horse though. Underrated throughout career also I think
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Sire de Grugy is a must for the pink. Good horse flat and right handed but watch the Kid Cassidy race in November and tell me if you would take 2-1?
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Sire De Grugy
Left handed 364821412. Wins at 4-6 in a Nov Chase and 7-2 in a handicap Right handed 22411113111111 |
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Agree Bally. Can't have SDG at Chelt. If it were soft at Sandown or Ascot I'd make him 10/11 shot.
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I do not understand all the negativity surrounding SDG tbh! How can any one tell it is the track, he has only raced on it twice, and twice race lost due to a jumping error! How are we to know also the horse wasn't too well at least one of those outings?
Them form figs you put up there bally are a little concerning however, but at the same time, he has improved stones this year, maybe for going right handed, might not be, but how do we actually know? A clear round in the QMCC i can see people on here having egg on their face i really can! And this is not me being biased as have a 16s voucher, but just weighing up all the pros and cons against this opposition, opposition he has beaten fair and square in the past! |
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Different horse on a right handed track for me. If you watch the Kid Cassidy race at Cheltenham and compare that to the right handed track efforts they are chalk n cheese.
16s is still a good bet and worth the gamble but at 2-1/9-4 its well worth a lay |
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His only defeat this year coming on the back of a bad blunder/stumble at the 4th, then a mistake at the 6th, cant afford that against a horse like Kid Cassidy imo! Also imo, his form has never been better this term. Hope this helps put my view across.
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Well I would say if he cant afford that against Kid Cassidy then he wouldn't be able to afford it against 80% of this field. If it was right handed round Ascot/Sandown/Kempton the rest need not turn up. Kid Cassidy just eased past up the run in for me. McCoy always had SDG covered. However, he did receive 10 pounds that day so maybe that was a hard task.
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I really like SDG, but more than needing a right handed track I think he needs genuine soft ground. When he gets that Sprinter apart he is clearly the best horse. Too short for me for QM at Cheltenham and going could easily dry up.
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If it was right handed anywhere Arvika Ligeonniere would eat SDG imo
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2nd favourite and pulled up in the Arkle last year. **** me shows how bad this race is
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Any chance Willie will supplement one of the Ricci novices?
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Before SS pulled out there was a lot of good value especially ew. Now most to me are poor value. On a right-handed track would believe AL should/would be favourite.
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Arvika and SDG appear to be different horses this year, so I wouldn't worry too much about going left handed.
Something must have been amiss with Arvika in the Arkle because he ran too bad to be true and he smashed a good quality field next time out, so I think he was beaten before the first fence in the Arkle. He is obviously not a 3 miler, so you have to discount his fourth in the Albert Bartlett as well. He doesn't jump right like Captain Chris does. If he runs a stinker in the QMCC then I'll hold my hands up, but for me he is the class hose in the race and I expect him to reverse the form with Beneficient. |
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SDG does deserve to be favourite though imo, as his formlines put him clear of everything else.
He's got Captain Conan held on Tingle Creek form, and he is a bit ahead of Arvika and Beneficient through Hidden Cyclone, who he brushed aside, where Arvika and Beneficient are very closely matched to Hidden Cyclone. Sizing Europe's best days are behind him, and to be honest he only beat a bunch of second raters in last years QMCC (although I do love the old fella). I could never have Kid Cassidy or Alderwood as Grade 1 chasers. Kid Cassidy only has 60 lengths to make up on Beneficient on their last run. The unknown is probably Bailey Green, who has been pretty poor this season, but will improve loads for better ground, and his last run over hurdles will put him spot on. |
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Kid Cassidy must be fresh. Easy to say he's got 60 lengths to find on Benefficient but he'll be fresh in 2 weeks and how much has he to find with the 2/1 favourite? In a normal year he'd have no chance but the top of the market are dodgy as
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Took 25/1 on Baily Green on Friday, NRNB. Happy with the price in what will now be an open race.
Wouldn't touch SDG at all at around 7/4... 5/1 wouldn't even tempt me! |
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That Kid Cassidy / Sire De Grugy race has to be a one off freak result though, like then Muirhead finished ahead of the Fly.
Kid Cassidy has shown nothing previously or since to show he is a G1 horse, let alone a QMCC winner. He's never ran in a G1 hurdle, and finished last in his only G1 chase. The best he's done is win a 3 runner G2 novice hurdle, and place in a G3 chase. The step up from that to winning a QMCC is huge. |
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*like when, not like then
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He's had a breathing op at start of this season. McCoy just picked SDG up at his leisure. The race in Ireland came too soon. I'm not sayin Kid C will win it but it puts into context the 2/1 about SDG
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Wind op rather
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I know you're on at a big price mate, so good luck with it, but not one for me. I can kind of understand when you backed him at 33's and SDG was about 3's, but now Sire De Grugy is 2's and Kid Cassidy is about 12's, so one has only come in a point, and the other has more than halved?
Yes, SDG is short, but of all the runners, he has the form to back up his price this season. |
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Basically got free go's on this cos laid Sacre and the rest of em could get laid off also. Just think this fav is there for the taking. He's really not that good for a 2/1 shot
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well chief on a line through special tiara SDG has loads to find with arvika, I suppose it depends which form you want to read.....
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As I said, I think he is a different horse this year, and is running to a much higher level after a summer off.
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SDG will win this, no doubt about it at all. Strongly feel that he has to much class for the opposition here. should be a 4/5 shot.
There are some very good reasons (mentioned above) on why he won't win etc, but looking at the potential opposition he's facing.....none of them scare me. It's more easier to pick holes in them instead as the betting suggests. |
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I'm actually quite surprised by the negativety towards SDG. Maybe it's his unfashionable connections?
I personally haven't backed him in a single, but took the PP special yesterday of Vautour and SDG at 16/1. I would lay my stake off if Vautour won, but I tend to do that with most doubles. If you look at the odds when Sprinter was in, compared to what they are now: SDG was 3's, now 2's Arvika was 10's, now 5's Beneficient was 10's, now 6's Captain Conan was 12's, now 7's Al Ferof was 16's, now 7's Everything has virtually halved in price, except the horse at the top. I hope he drifts further, because if he goes back to his price that he was before Sprinter came out, then I'd say he was value; especially has this has been his target all season, unlike nearly everything else in the race. |
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as much as i tend to agree with the opinion on kid cassidy, in regards, of him having plenty to find and not contended the races you would hope for in his career, it has to be remembered how he has been campaigned...
anyone who has followed the horse like i have, will know he has spent the best part of his career with the handbrake on, to preserve a mark in which to win the grand annual...i backed the horse heavily last year and he was given a very suspect ride ridden in rear and keen as is his want, he then made a sweeping move 8 wide the whole way and how he still managed to challenge was testament only to the animals clear ability...the horse is very quirky but now his breathing has been sorted out, he can go well here, off the back of an absence at a track he has ran well on in the past i remember synchronised winning a gold cup for the same connections and he was just a handicapper, until the handbrake was released...he may well be quirky but can certainly see him running through beaten horses and might even surprise a few with the run of the race, don't expect to see him till late well chief you have clearly taken his last run literally but the horse does need to come off of an absence, on the other side of the coin he is a quirky character so it won't be easy and the champ will have to be at his very best to see him home sire de grugy is a solid favorite but he has had a very hard campaign this year already and have the feeling soft ground is important to him...not so sure about the right handed as he has ran well left handed (probably prefers right handed though) just feel his ideal conditions are soft captain conan is an interesting runner but isn't a horse to fall in love with and collapsed quicker than a cheap tent in the jewson last year...he reminds me a tad of punchestowns a few years ago just a big horse but not that athletic...i respect him but wouldn't want to take skinny odds available alderwood i'm not sure will run here we will see i backed arvica last year and he ran like a drain (travel? left handed i don't know?) but not sure i want to be with him if he runs the horse i respect the most is beneficient but have a feeling they should go for the ryannair, as feel the trip will be more to his liking but he just keeps finding and is still quite unexposed at the minimum trip, that said i have a feeling it may just happen a tad quick for him if the ground wasn't soft enough but respect him and he shouldn't be underestimated somersby is a rat and as much as he has all the ability to get involved, he always find a way of fecking it up...he has always annoyed me, although he has had some great days mostly at ascot special tiara is quite a hard horse to fathom but good ground and a flat track appear his optimum...i can't get an angle with him hinterland not sure what happens with him a sporting bet on kid cassidy for me...with captain conan and beneficient very much respected as is sire de grugy if he gets soft ground but he is still a long way clear on ratings, so won't be laying him, just coupling some others should be a good race this and an open one, even more so if sire de grugy puts a sloppy round in |
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You could be right Harry, re Kid Cassidy, but my gut feeling is, if they thought he was a proper G1 horse, they would of campaigned him accordingly. As much as JP likes a plot, he hasn't had a proper Champion Chase horse in years, so if they thought he was good enough, they would have sent him down this route long ago, rather than trying to protect his handicap mark.
He has dozens of others to choose from for the Grand Annual. I think once he beat Sire De Grugy and went up to 156, their hand was forced, as he would have been 13lbs higher for the Grand Annual than last year; so I don't think the run behind Beneficient was anything to do with protecting him. If they wanted him fit, they could have just thrown him in a jumpers bumper like MTOY, rather than sending him all the way to Ireland to let him finish in his own time. A lot of negatives about the entire field, and not many have G1 or even G2 course form. Sizing Europe and Al Ferof do, but at this stage in their career, can you really see them winning a QMCC. Got to go with the second season novices like SDG, AL, Ben, CC. |
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* Sorry, forgot Beneficient's course form last year, but that was half a mile further. Strange the way their initial thought with him was to send him to the Charlie Hall, and now he's one of the leading fancies for the QMCC?
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