Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 617 comments are related to the topic:
Who's organising this years "Plunge"?
Who's organising this years "Plunge"?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 617
|
By:
I think the purpose fanatic should be to shove it up the bookmakers, with maximum affect
an edge is a winner with everyone on surely...the mischief will be when we've all had it right off, that's my policy anyway  |
|
By:
yeah obviously the main aim is to make money ,and if a multi was to kop and a many forumites were on then it would send a shudder through the bookmaking ranks and that aint a bad thing
|
|
By:
was thinking of a big price each way acca nearer the 1st day of the meeting on nrnb had a near miss on 3 good priced winners one year , and 4 places that paid out around £2,000 for a £20 each way acca a few years back !
|
|
By:
My post from the Sunday before the festival last year, outlining the idea behind the win single 'plunge'
rogerthebutler 09 Mar 14 12:59 Hi everyone. Right, having got the acca off and away, now it's the handicap selection. To save you scrolling bac a few pages the deal is this. The bet will probably be in the 3m Handicap Chase on Tuesday, since later in the week we'll all be into our own thing in the maelstrom if Chltenham. Plus, we MAY get a bit of publicity ahead of the big 4 days if we do end up moving the market a few points. The b1tch is that many of the runners in the selected race are also entered in the Kim Muir, so I want to ensure we at least get a run for our money by backing a horse that's declared for the race in question. At present I have two horses in mind and the selection will be one of these, the longest price one if both are declared. If neither are declared then I have a back up in the Novices Handicap Chase that ends Tuesday's card. If that is not declared then there will be no selection. Without getting too pompous about it, I feel a weight of responsibility to you guys who are going to put however much of your hard-earned on my say-so and I'd be letting you all down if I came up with something on the fly that I'd not researched thoroughly. So - whatever I come up with, rest assured no little effort and study has gone into it. It may win. It may fall at the first. It may run like a drain but it will have had much lean brain tissue burnt on it, that's for def! I'm going to be up in that there London on business on Monday but will aim to be in an Internet cafe around 11.00 hrs when the declarations come out. I use the Sporting Life website. If anyone knows a site where the final decs come ot quicker, then I'm all ears. As soon as I know our horse is declared I'll post it on here, but I hope this will be no later than 11.30hrs on Monday morning. It will be posted . The price I will leave to you to get the best you can, but I anticipate the selection being double figure odds, so some juice for e/w bettors if you're that way inclined. |
|
By:
that is fair enough roger...who decides who picks either bet multi or single?
surely the multi is a team effort no? |
|
By:
Love the Festival plunge, which is now becoming a real tradition!
I'm definitely in again. I hear what Roger is saying about having the responsibility of a horse that the whole forum is backing, and am sure it's not easy to reconcile with if it runs poorly. I am happy to be involved in some capacity though - one idea to share the weight a bit is to have two or three people who confer a bit about the single selection. Between them, those three could determine the final selection so that no one person bears the burden (of work and expectation). It might also help to have a voice or two of reason to consider the negatives about certain would-be selections. Anyone like that plan? |
|
By:
think a group or select committee of forum posters who have decent records of tipping ,there are some on the ante post forum "big race threads " g mac and others who come up with decent priced tips with a good strike rate week in week out who may be persuaded to form the committee also plenty of decent opinions from other posters plus input from the trends boys ,plenty of time ,but good to see interest in the plunges
|
|
By:
Plunge posse 2015
love it |
|
By:
Thanks Doylestown I will start studying
|
|
By:
Count me in!
I know what you feel about the weight of expectation - it was my Olofi suggestion in 2012 County Hurdle. Half the forum went in at 16's and his price halved. He ran a stinker, only to hose up in the Greatwood in his next race  I felt gutted though because it was people backing him on the back of my suggestion. The excitement didn't half build though, especially when he was then pricewised (he must read these pages!) and went joint fav at one point. Orsoncart • March 11, 2012 2:59 PM GMT On at 16's with WHills aswell. wellchief • March 11, 2012 7:08 PM GMT I see a lot have gone with Spoils and they're 12/1 now, and Laddies and 365 have gone 14/1 from 16/1. Looks like 12 takers so far; anyone else in????? solvingthepuzzle • March 11, 2012 7:16 PM GMT Already on @ 20 it's chances were highlighted on here a while back (thnks to all) will have some more at the current 13 on here although doubt i'll move the market somehow! Report postiepete • March 11, 2012 9:06 PM GMT I am in too if I didnt say earlier.Dont fancy it but enjoy the chargeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Report rothko • March 11, 2012 9:22 PM GMT i like a good forum chargeeeeee - count me in Report onehundredandeighty • March 11, 2012 9:29 PM GMT Im on like donkey kong Report undertaker • March 12, 2012 2:44 AM GMT CHAAAAAARRRRRRRGGGGGGGGE! unclepuncle • March 15, 2012 3:00 PM GMT Best price 16/1 with Corals - CHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGE roobuck • March 15, 2012 4:32 PM GMT See the 16s now gone - see what they all do when they get ready for overnight prices. If the ground was soft enough for Cape Tribulation, then should be OK for Olofi - in again I go Larry Sellers • March 15, 2012 8:19 PM GMT Now best priced 12/1 The money on Olofi is RELENTLESS and ALL KNOWING marychain1 • March 16, 2012 2:38 AM GMT Pricewise is a confirmed chaaaaaaarrrrrrggggggggger marychain1 • March 16, 2012 2:39 AM GMT Hills into 8/1 Glossy • March 16, 2012 2:41 AM GMT Pricewise read the forum. festivalfanatic • March 16, 2012 9:10 AM GMT Well done mc.....this is actually quite amusing! solvingthepuzzle • March 16, 2012 9:21 AM GMT 'the puzzled look on Tanya's face' Could the dream become a reality? Mr Eboue • March 16, 2012 1:45 PM GMT COME ON OLOFI MY OLD SON JOKING ASIDE THIS WILL GET ME OUT OF A MASSIVE HOLE! go-all-in • March 16, 2012 2:02 PM GMT joint favourite on here now! |
|
By:
Foyleswar lol
|
|
By:
The excitement didn't half build though, especially when he was then pricewised (he must read these pages!) and went joint fav at one point.
I think that's what we should aim for personally. Hope for the win by all means (and I love Mr Eboue's suggestion of how to spend it if it does come up trums - posted on the other thread I think!!) but to see the market shift or to even get mentioned in despatches on C4 or the press would be a real hoot. |
|
By:
i suggest a festival plunge 4 horse each way acca at big odds this year plus the handicap plunge ,on the basis that if it comes up you must make it count ,and it could be a life changer !
|
|
By:
I'm happy to follow whoever picks! And appreciate what roger says about the weight of expectation. It's been great fun following these threads for the past 3 years, personally I agree an Acca or a treble is the way forward, and maybe a win single on the Tuesday, I would prefer the picks to be either the Sunday or the Monday morning before heading off to the festival for the week.
Wellchief seems to talk more sense on here than most , and Foyles is always good at the organising. Perhaps this year will be the year. Anyways as mentioned I will be up for it whoever picks. |
|
By:
You're too kind mate
I'll give you that fiver later! |
|
By:
Well that's in the absence of Geoff m and the headmaster whatever happened to them!
|
|
By:
Why would you give yourself a fiver wellchief
 |
|
By:
I picked the plunge horse two years ago, or was it three? Anyway I've blocked it from my mind. All I can remember is that it ran a shocker. Once bitten, twice shy.
All I'd suggest is that if a committee picks the horse, they should communicate by pm rather than public forum. This works best when everyone knows that the plunge horse will be announced at a certain time (say 5pm Monday night?). You get the best market moves for your plunge when everyone piles in at the same time. If the committee do all their chatting in public then people will back it in dribs and drabs just from the conversation and it won't have any effect on the market. Why don't we have a committee of 3, and they can announce when they will put TPH up on here, before getting on with choosing one. |
|
By:
^ Agree 100% with this - the whole buzz for me is the panic that could be instilled on our bookie friends if, out of nowhere, one horse gets punted from lots and lots of different accounts at the same time.
In theory, if we nominate a precise time to release the info, people can all get on with the same bookie (who would be top price of course), which would really make this fun. Imagine being a trader and suddenly realising that you've taken a shedload of bets on the same horse at exactly the same time - that's what genuine gambles look like! |
|
By:
agreed with above, the reason I am pushing the idea of an each way multi is because once it has been placed and prices secured and if things went well and say 3 winners or even 3 places were accumulating onto a 4th selection and with potentialy huge liabilitys that the bookmakers would be able to do little about except hope that luck is on their side .
|
|
By:
FOYLESWAR 08 Jan 15 12:32 Joined: 09 Jan 11 | Topic/replies: 8,212 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
agreed with above, the reason I am pushing the idea of an each way multi is because once it has been placed and prices secured and if things went well and say 3 winners or even 3 places were accumulating onto a 4th selection and with potentialy huge liabilitys that the bookmakers would be able to do little about except hope that luck is on their side . Or do what they always do and hedge their liabilities into the strongest horse racing betting markets on earth, is what you call on course, 'Office money' thus forcing the price down to somewhere they are comfortable with. As with the single selection, i am not sure what impact a forum of punters is going to make on a horse race market at the Cheltenham festival, small fry in a huge pond, as was the case last year and what would have been the year before had pw not also picked it, but as i said last year i will join in myself and will back both. |
|
By:
what I am saying sts is they can shorten the price as much as they like it wont affect those plungers who have taken s prices on a acca before hand !
|
|
By:
I remember last year feeling a tad sorry for Roger having to come up with the selection on his own, the idea of 3 people working on it seems much better.
|
|
By:
Count me in again
|
|
By:
I'm happy to go along with the concensous. I reckon I'd be half decent at an antepost non handicap ew treble, but when it comes to handicaps I'm absolutely useless, so I only put about 10% of my time into them, and 90% into the level weights G1's and Listed races.
|
|
By:
More then happy to get involved but up to all you guys
|
|
By:
if we are talking about a multi acca plunge as well, then may be 4 posters selected to pick 1 horse each in selected non handicaps ,I e gold cup ,rsa ,world hurdle ,and champion chase all look open and good each way races ...........just a suggestion !
|
|
By:
That could be a good shout Foyles, certainly avoids a lot of faffing and gets straight to the selections in one go!
|
|
By:
Good idea foyles. Depends on whether people would prefer just the one, or maybe 2 seperate plunges.
One we can all get on board on in the next week or so, so we can all cheer the same ones in their prep races in the build up to the festival, and another one which is a more "on the day", where it was similar to last year ones entries etc have been made, which can include handicaps. I like your Giggi theme last year (Don Cossack, Trifolium and sorry can't remember the last one). This year, something like Road to Riches (Gold Cup), Don Cossack (Ryanair), Don Poli (RSA) and Valseur Lido (JLT) are all second favs for their targets and 3696/1 with VC but their prices don't really lend well to each way. A tenner ew acca would be £37.5k return, but the place would only be £500. However, I know those prices will be too short for a lot of posters - so may want to do longer odds like Carlingford Lough (33/1), Smad Place (33's), Conygree or Champagne West (10's or 16's respectively), Lieutenant Colonel (12's), Apache Stronghold (16's), which will be much better for the ew element. A possible democratic way of doing it would be for a shortlist of about 10 - 12 horses is drawn up, and then posters can all pick four that they would like and then at the end, the four with the most votes are picked, but that's getting quite complicated!! Decisions, decisions..... |
|
By:
quite like the idea of some different picks in the multi...like foyles says
i think if one person finds an angle in one race and has put the effort in, that is the way to go but personally it is hard enough near the day to back the winner so ante post is out for me personally as need all the jigsaw pieces, which is made harder when you have multiple predictions ante post in your head and leads to a scatter gun approach this doesn't work for me anymore would love to see everyone win a few quid so a winner is just imperative imo but am happy to pick the bones out of certain predictions if people want and aren't going to be offended by my mercenary approach to looking at things |
|
By:
suggest the best thing to do is wait for non runner no bet ,until its clear where horses are definatly targeted and study trends etc ! jocci club puts up excellent trends, stats, plenty of time to anaylise and collect data !
|
|
By:
Surely lieutenant colonel Ew bet to nothing in world hurdle with so many doubts about the others
|
|
By:
Was thinking, Vautour, Uxizandre, Zarkandar on Thursday.
 |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Found a horse for the plunge if anyone interested in it,been running over 2 mile against horses it shouldn't beat,2nd at the festival last year,will be stepped up to its proper trip,running on the Tuesday in the novice handicap chase,Thomas crapper looks as though it's been laid out for the race ! 16-1 in places
|
|
By:
interesting ! lets hope it don't go down the pan and pisSes up and we will all be flush !
|
|
By:
 |
|
By:
I knew someone would come up with one lol,most of my ante posts seem to be going that way ! |
|
By:
good to see the plungers are getting the form books out early !
|
|
By:
Is that a compliment?
 |