Cheltenham Festival
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remember him? bit of a forgotten horse it seems , rightly talked of in glowing terms after his scintillating win in the triumph and also double the price now for the champ hurdle than he was a few days after his runaway success ,I must admit he rather slipped off my radar ,probably because of the 5 yo stat and because of his shortish price at the time , I was wondering if he could cut the mustard with the top hurdlers but his last run behind hurricane fly and jeski showed he can indeed live with the elite ,weak in the betting he travelled and jumped well and was arguably going the best on the turn in to the last hurdle where it looked to me he blew up and to my eyes it was a very encouraging run and I cant see no reason why he will not keep progressing with a trainer who knows what it takes to win the race ,,he had a setback that caused him to miss the morgiana hurdle and we will know a bit more after the irish champion hurdle in just over a weeks time where he is due to cross swords with hurricane fly and jeski, available at around 9s on here and 8s on the books he looks the value in the champion hurdle CHAMPION HURDLE ....OUR CONOR ..1 POINT EACH WAY 8S BOOKS OR 9S OR BETTER HERE .
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next week will tell you if you have value or not Foyles.
Next year will see him have more chance imo when hes grown a bit more,but a big race next week could prove that wrong. |
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I wouldn't rule him out but worth bearing in mind that he won't have the 3 lb allowance that he had at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Champion Hurdle is firmly a watching brief for me,fantastic race but ultra competitive and difficult to find any value at this stage - the top 5/6 or so priced to an O/R in excess of 100% with the fixed odds books. |
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yeah we will see budd we should see if he has progressed from the last time ,think he will be 3lb worse off with the other 2, so interesting race !
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Fly will improve as he always does from the xmas race to Irish Champ. He beat Our Conor 7l giving him 3lbs and he also idled after the last. Our Conor will need to improve close to a stone to reverse the placings. a 2l defeat would be enough imo to put him in the Champion frame.
He's never raced on good ground over hurdles though. |
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At this stage i agree with you Foyles.
You never know he may love good ground |
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Where is he going to encounter good ground??I think we all know at this stage that the ground on the opening day will be at least watered to what equates to good to soft(soft in places)
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yeah flat bred by Jeremy - flamands (sadlers wells) should be gd to soft at least on the Tuesday .
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Really?
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Yeah the going description of soft on first day last year was way off. IT was at worst good to soft. It's pretty much always g2s or good on first day.
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Be interesting to see if Our Conor has a slight setback late this week and misses meeting Hurricane again until the Festival. Connections have been bullish but words will seem shallow if they duck this coming race. If he turns up they will find out how he is now he has had a run in which they claimed he blew up at the close.
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Horses can be very delicate animals especially when it suits!
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if he runs this weekend I don't really expect our conor to beat hurricane fly who will be going for his 4th or 5th? irish champion ,id expect hurricane fly to be more finely tuned for the irish champion than our conor ,if our conor finishes close up I will be happy with that and so would his connections imo, the day that really matters is the Tuesday of the festival for our conor ..and that is the day he will be 100% then we will see if he is good enough .
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Although TNO would be my idea of the winner you aint going to beat the book with him.
OC and Jezki are the only ones that will shorten(UDS as well but will he run wont he run). OC to run a big race this weekend b4 placing at worst in the churdle. |
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I've been place laying Our Conor since he ran on the flat last October. So many horses above him for me. HF, MTOY, TNO, Jezki, then other strong possibles Annie Power, Melodic Rendez, even Grumeti. 13/8 is very unappealing. Loads of hype in that price imo.
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I know he's got more to prove than most, but surely you don't think Grumeti is a danger? That's a bit insulting to a horse that was only five lengths off the Fly despite an interrupted prep last time!
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At this stage no, but he is a possible to line up in the race with some decent form himself, also off an interrupted prep. Tbh, i'm just putting up horses that could force OC out of the frame. I think his price should be 3/1 + to place, hence the lay.
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Esp with an interrupted prep. ALL the main protagonists have had a smooth season, winning and competing at the highest level. Neither of the ''big 4'' have had any setbacks as far as I am aware. Fingers crossed they dont.!!
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I take your point, and was against him for months in the build-up but was surprised by how well he ran the last day and I'm on the verge of being converted. I think Cheltenham is a great track for his style of racing. While I think there are likelier winners, and this year's race is better than previous renewals, it stuck with me that Countrywide Flame was placed last year and I'm pretty sure Our Conor's Triumph win sets him a good bit higher than that one. He's certainly not one I'd want to be place laying. Personally don't fancy Jezki at all; he'd be the one of the 'Big five' I'd be most keen to take on. A very good horse of course, but the excuses are beginning to mount up and I'm struggling to see how he can win the best race he's ever run in when he's come up short in the really strong races he's run in beforehand.
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Understand where you are coming from re Jezki, but he'll have outstanding place claims even if not good enough to win it. He had no prep before the Supreme last year when a decent 3rd, imo. At least the trainer won't be doing that again.
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I too was against our conor as said on the thread but the run behind hurricane fly got me thinking and looking at the triumph ,didn't back him till after his run in the ryanaire hurdle and too me it was a really good run he needs to improve a few pounds but highly likely imo and they have a "sighter "on the likes of the fly and jseski ,may be wrong and they may be better but he was arguably going best on the run up to the last and there should be a fair bit more to come ,we will see !
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I am starting to think the Irish form is better and think maybe the two horses that are overhyped are TNO and MTOY.
Sint the record ov 5 year olds and triumph winners placing in the churdle is decent. |
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would you back him at 13/8 jasey?
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Nope.
I am waiting to see how he runs this weekend |
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The Fly will cruise to success again this weekend
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that a very profound statement for a 4/11 shot !!
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Our Conor should be fitter this weekend and will be cherry ripe in March.
Reckon Fly will win again this weekend, but for me it would not be a total shock should OC win or at least go close. Ive never really fancied OC for the Churdle this year, but it must be remembered that this horse is open to any improvement. Personally think next year will see him more of a major threat ,but would not be that surprised should he win or go close this year. |
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Agree totally with that Bud
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20/1 with PP for the double of Irish CH and Cheltenham.
If anyone interested. |
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our conor very weak in betting for the irish champ hurdle today!
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Ran a cracker, Our Conor. Does anyone else derive no confidence from Danny Mullins in a finish though? When Our Conor cruises upsides the Fly, his flailing about is never going to be a match for Ruby Walsh/any other top jock. He's fine if OC can win on the snaff, but so would I be. In a driving finish, as surely it will be in the Champion Hurdle, is he really going to get Our Conor in front of Ruby on Hurricane Fly/AP on MTOY?
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Proper test for the Fly,i think backers of both will be happy.
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happy with that weak in the betting and a lot closer to hf and improvement to come ! he is very much in the mix
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Our Conor will improve for that. I just don't think he'll have the gears to reverse form with Fly on better ground in March. Especially as he'll be 2lbs worse off at the weights from today.
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Can't see what the jock did wrong there, travelled up to the fly, edged ahead and produced him to jump the final flight beautifully whilst the fly made a slight mistake,got out battled on the run in by a real champion.......he's another one that will want a strong gallop.
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any post race interviews from connections of the top 3 ?
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Yes agree,if he had have been good enough today he would have won imo
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d hughes v happy.he improves in chelt he said..wp v happy.im an oc fan but the proximity of capt cee bee not a good sign
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I don't mean to say that D. Mullins did anything wrong, duffy, just pointing out that he's not as strong as some which now sounds all very obvious! Fascinating contest in store, I hope OC can improve again in March.
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I'm Danny Mullins biggest critic but that was a fine ride. Just beaten by the better animal as he will be again in 6 weeks.
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