Cheltenham Festival
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our conor.............
our conor.............
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As mentioned above, Our Conor's time will be next year when he will be a lot stronger and when he's improved more. The Fly will be 11, MTOY or Jezki, as well as Annie Power will go chasing, so I think whatever they do this year will be a bonus.
He went up in my estimations a lot after today. |
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Looks like MTOY & TNO will fight this one out imo.
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sintonian
27 Jan 14 08:13 Looks like MTOY & TNO will fight this one out imo. While I'm a big TNO fan I don't like having STD on board so I'd happily take HF and OC in a match bet against you Sint.  |
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Completely agree with you uncle p re TNO and STD... in fact i think there's a very strong argument that TNO's form does not stack up for the churdle when you consider previous big races with decent opposition and close finishes: losing to AFC at last year's chelt trials, losing to Zarkandar at Aintree, losing to MTOY in Xmas hurdle. You also have to reconsider his victory in last year's neptune in light of the (lack of) quality and form of the other horses that day - none of them have gone on to do anything impressive. Also, his victories against Zarkandar this year have been against a horse which is, imo, regressing and have now been put into perspective by AP.
Quite simply STD gets nervous in these big races and goes for home way too early when under pressure - consequently, he will get found out (again) in what will be a very high quality renewal of the churdle. I'm sure a lot of big buck's punters from saturday will feel the same! |
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Even his initials (STD) are rather alarming!!!
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I don't think think he was as keen as all that if I'm honest, I also don't think he's the best of jumpers either.
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Hughes said: "He's come out of the race absolutely fine and I'm very happy with where we are with the horse. We were a bit disappointed as it looked as though he might have it won at one stage, but I'm thrilled he improved, which I thought he would.
"He's just a bit young and for a five-year-old to do that, I think was a tremendous performance. He was nearly the last horse off the bridle which was a fantastic feat in itself beside that horse (Hurricane Fly). "For three or four strides after the last I thought we had him but the other old boy just wore him down. Being a young horse, he should improve and I think Cheltenham improved him last year; he was definitely a stone better horse last year at Cheltenham. "He appeared to love the track (at Cheltenham) and he's definitely a better horse on better ground. All in all, I think we'll be going to Cheltenham more optimistic than pessimistic and he must go there with a fighting chance." |
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STD is just 21yo. He is still learning so lets not forget that before we're quick to hang him.
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I've been unsure about OC, but I thought it was a really good run. He must be entitled to improve more than most... and we have already seen he is better on decent ground and loves the track. I just couldn't have him on my mind for the CH this year, but am moving towards him now.
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well said sint
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Anyone remembering last year's Champion Hurdle, on decent ground, will recall Hurricane Fly hitting a very flat spot, and urged along quite early by Ruby Walsh.
Touched big prices, in running, that day. He won't get the same opportunity to impose himself, against better opposition, if he hits that flat spot again, this time around, on (hopefully) better ground. I think Our Conor, on this course, assuming better ground has arrived by then, will tater them all, up the hill. |
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i definitely fancy OC now for the Churdle, especially as i now believe TNO cant win the race - yes, STD may be young, but his nervousness will just play into the hands of mccoy and walsh etc..
I think OC now looks good at 7.6 tho' i still think MTOY is a big threat - in the hands of mccoy, a very good 2nd in the SNH at a very fast time, and has progressed well this season. As people have already mentioned, there are plenty of horses which will want to take the race to HF and, at 11yrs old, he has to be vulnerable going up the hill. Only problem bettingwise is UDS and AP - the jokers in the pack. Particularly AP with the 7lb allowance and form vs Zarkandar which at least matches TNO.. |
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the fly isn't 11....
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sorry alleged .. typo.... but i think the point stands that the last 2 races in Ireland have been run in a way which suits HF. This is unlikely to happen in the Churdle due to what TNO, MTOY etc will want (good gallop) and fact that HF has never been that comfortable at Chelt (which proves what a great horse he is but i just think time and the opposition will catch up with him on the hill...)
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Who is setting the so called good gallop?
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HF stays at least 2m 4f and has beaten Solwhit at that distance. It does not matter how a race is run he can handle all eventualities.
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I can't see for one moment why OC will reverse form with HF let alone the UK runners. He was upsides HF on Sunday after the last but ended up beaten 1.5 lengths and will be 2lb worse off at the weights in March. He travelled well and ''blew up'' the time before that too at Xmas so I can't be having this need the run b0llox.
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Nice to see Some Tikket bounce back the other day CCM. Looked good and probably well handicapped.
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Agree Sint.
As a 5 year old, I would have expected him to have a better turn of foot than a 10 year old, but Hurricane Fly quickened away fairly readily. |
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There is also 6 weeks between the Irish & Champion Hurdles, well Chief. Enough time to give him a little breather inbetween so they can run for their life at Leopardstown, imo. He was fit.
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I see people saying OC will improve for better ground. Where does this theory come from? The form book says it was good to soft in the Triumph, but that was inaccurate. It had rained all morning. The later races were changed to soft.
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well the last to 10yr olds who were in the CH as favourites were Rooster Booster and Istabraq ... and both didnt make it. Personally i think that the Chelt course will server OC better than HF (but i may be wrong here) ...
as regards a "good gallop", my understanding is that NTD will be putting a pacemaker in for TNO.. Bettingwise there's still the massive problem of AP who is the highest rated 2m hurdler taking into account her allowance..!? |
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See I don't see Annie Power as being a massive problem betting wise.... If she lines up you back her and shortly after you collect. What's not to like?!
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NTD decided not to enter a pacemaker in the end. Maybe McManus should have stumped up for Captain Cee Bee to be entered as a pacemaker, as it's his two horses that need the strong pace.
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Un De Sceuax will set the pace
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hope so
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sint I can see where you are coming from regards our conor and hurricane fly ,fly beat him 1.5 length and will be 2lb better off at chelt so in theory should beat him at least 2.5 l ,but as we all know it doesn't always work out like that , the irish champion hurdle was a slow run small field affair that will have little resemblance to the champion hurdle on the Tuesday. our conor improved a fair bit from his last race and going by the way dessie hughes campaigned hardy Eustace, by memory hardy Eustace didn't win many preps /trials always seemed to be placed but for his churdle wins he was spot on on the day it mattered ,I am hopefull that our conor is being brought on the same way to peak on the Tuesday ,it could be assumed that the irish champion hurdle was more important to hurricane fly than our conor seeing as he was going for a 4th ich and record no of grade 1s. a great champion hurricane fly but he is up against the new kids on the block and this will be arguably the best field he has faced he may well be up to it . but think its fair to say that our conor has a fair bit more improvement to come as have 4 or 5 of the other up and comers .
the problem is any 1 of the top half dozen could win and it would not surprise anyone .just thought our conor offered a bit of value at the time of putting the thread up . anyway good luck with your bets and all will be revealed on the Tuesday . |
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I'll be surprised if UDS runs. I hope he does, as he is interesting, but his participation would hinder Hurricane Fly's chances imo, as the strong pace will be benefical to three of his rivals. He's been campaigned as though he may be aimed at Punchestown this season, with the Champion being the target next season.
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Yep,would certainly hinder Fly's chances...and all the others!!
Doubt any of them would catch him!! except Annie Power....if she runs |
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That's laughable Budde. He's proven very little so far.
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yeh,i like havin a laugh Sint.
Seriously though,its possible!! But you are of course correct,theres no proven form. |