Cheltenham Festival

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18 Jan 14 15:55
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 22,335 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
remember him? bit of a forgotten horse it seems , rightly   talked of in glowing terms after his scintillating win in the triumph and also double the price now  for the champ hurdle than   he was a few days after   his runaway success ,I must admit he rather slipped off my radar ,probably because of the 5 yo stat and because of his shortish price at the time , I was wondering if he could cut the mustard with the top hurdlers but his last run behind hurricane fly and jeski showed he can indeed live with the elite ,weak in the betting he travelled and jumped well and was arguably going the best on the turn in to the last hurdle where it looked to me he blew up and to  my eyes it was a very encouraging run  and I cant see no reason why he will not keep progressing  with a trainer who knows what it takes to win the race ,,he had a setback that caused him to miss the morgiana hurdle and we will know a bit more after the irish champion hurdle in just over a weeks time where he is due to cross swords with hurricane fly and jeski, available at around 9s on here and 8s on the books he looks   the value in the champion hurdle CHAMPION HURDLE ....OUR CONOR ..1 POINT EACH WAY 8S BOOKS OR 9S OR BETTER HERE .
Pause Switch to Standard View our conor.............
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Report buddeliea January 18, 2014 5:27 PM GMT
next week will tell you if you have value or not Foyles.
Next year will see him have more chance imo when hes grown a bit more,but a big race next week could prove that wrong.
Report dj876 January 18, 2014 6:00 PM GMT
I wouldn't rule him out but worth bearing in mind that he won't have the 3 lb allowance that he had at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Champion Hurdle is firmly a watching brief for me,fantastic race but ultra competitive and difficult to find any value at this stage - the top 5/6 or so priced to an O/R in excess of 100% with the fixed odds books.
Report FOYLESWAR January 18, 2014 6:05 PM GMT
yeah we will see budd we should see if he has progressed from the last time ,think he will be 3lb worse off with the other 2, so interesting race !
Report CVByrne January 18, 2014 6:18 PM GMT
Fly will improve as he always does from the xmas race to Irish Champ. He beat Our Conor 7l giving him 3lbs and he also idled after the last. Our Conor will need to improve close to a stone to reverse the placings. a 2l defeat would be enough imo to put him in the Champion frame.

He's never raced on good ground over hurdles though.
Report jasey January 18, 2014 6:31 PM GMT
At this stage i agree with you Foyles.
You never know he may love good ground
Report dj876 January 18, 2014 6:36 PM GMT
Where is he going to encounter good ground??I think we all know at this stage that the ground on the opening day will be at least watered to what equates to good to soft(soft in places)
Report FOYLESWAR January 18, 2014 6:41 PM GMT
yeah flat bred by Jeremy - flamands (sadlers wells) should be gd to soft at least on the Tuesday .
Report jasey January 18, 2014 6:46 PM GMT
Report CVByrne January 18, 2014 7:14 PM GMT
Yeah the going description of soft on first day last year was way off. IT was at worst good to soft. It's pretty much always g2s or good on first day.
Report eric_morris January 19, 2014 10:33 PM GMT
Be interesting to see if Our Conor has a slight setback late this week and misses meeting Hurricane again until the Festival. Connections have been bullish but words will seem shallow if they duck this coming race. If he turns up they will find out how he is now he has had a run in which they claimed he blew up at the close.
Report Arklearkle January 19, 2014 10:39 PM GMT
Horses can be very delicate animals especially when it suits!
Report FOYLESWAR January 20, 2014 8:47 AM GMT
if he runs this weekend I don't really expect our conor to beat hurricane fly who will be going for his 4th or  5th? irish champion ,id expect hurricane fly to be more finely tuned  for the irish champion than our conor ,if our conor finishes close up I will be happy with that and so would his connections imo, the  day  that really matters is the Tuesday of the festival for our conor ..and that is the day he will be 100% then we will see if he is good enough .
Report jasey January 20, 2014 7:25 PM GMT
Although TNO would be my idea of the winner you aint going to beat the book with him.
OC and Jezki are the only ones that will shorten(UDS as well but will he run wont he run).
OC to run a big race this weekend b4 placing at worst in the churdle.
Report sintonian January 21, 2014 8:48 AM GMT
I've been place laying Our Conor since he ran on the flat last October. So many horses above him for me. HF, MTOY, TNO, Jezki, then other strong possibles Annie Power, Melodic Rendez, even Grumeti. 13/8 is very unappealing. Loads of hype in that price imo.
Report tomdeane January 21, 2014 11:02 AM GMT
I know he's got more to prove than most, but surely you don't think Grumeti is a danger? That's a bit insulting to a horse that was only five lengths off the Fly despite an interrupted prep last time!
Report sintonian January 21, 2014 2:49 PM GMT
At this stage no, but he is a possible to line up in the race with some decent form himself, also off an interrupted prep. Tbh, i'm just putting up horses that could force OC out of the frame. I think his price should be 3/1 + to place, hence the lay.Excited
Report sintonian January 21, 2014 2:50 PM GMT
Esp with an interrupted prep. ALL the main protagonists have had a smooth season, winning and competing at the highest level. Neither of the ''big 4'' have had any setbacks as far as I am aware. Fingers crossed they dont.!!
Report tomdeane January 21, 2014 2:55 PM GMT
I take your point, and was against him for months in the build-up but was surprised by how well he ran the last day and I'm on the verge of being converted. I think Cheltenham is a great track for his style of racing. While I think there are likelier winners, and this year's race is better than previous renewals, it stuck with me that Countrywide Flame was placed last year and I'm pretty sure Our Conor's Triumph win sets him a good bit higher than that one. He's certainly not one I'd want to be place laying. Personally don't fancy Jezki at all; he'd be the one of the 'Big five' I'd be most keen to take on. A very good horse of course, but the excuses are beginning to mount up and I'm struggling to see how he can win the best race he's ever run in when he's come up short in the really strong races he's run in beforehand.
Report sintonian January 21, 2014 2:57 PM GMT
Understand where you are coming from re Jezki, but he'll have outstanding place claims even if not good enough to win it. He had no prep before the Supreme last year when a decent 3rd, imo. At least the trainer won't be doing that again.
Report FOYLESWAR January 21, 2014 3:11 PM GMT
I too was against our conor as said on the thread but the run behind hurricane fly got me thinking and looking at the triumph ,didn't back him till after his run in the ryanaire hurdle and too me it was a really good run he needs to improve a few pounds but highly likely imo and they have a "sighter "on the likes of the fly and jseski ,may be wrong and they may be better but he was arguably going best on the run up to the last and there should be a fair bit more to come ,we will see !
Report jasey January 21, 2014 4:06 PM GMT
I am starting to think the Irish form is better and think maybe the two horses that are overhyped are TNO and MTOY.
Sint the record ov 5 year olds and triumph winners placing in the churdle is decent.
Report sintonian January 22, 2014 2:11 PM GMT
would you back him at 13/8 jasey?
Report jasey January 22, 2014 7:21 PM GMT
I am waiting to see how he runs this weekend
Report bluebirdfan January 23, 2014 5:13 PM GMT
The Fly will cruise to success again this weekend
Report kavvie January 23, 2014 7:22 PM GMT
that a very profound statement for a 4/11 shot !!
Report buddeliea January 23, 2014 8:53 PM GMT
Our Conor should be fitter this weekend and will be cherry ripe in March.
Reckon Fly will win again this weekend, but for me it would not be a total shock should OC win or at least go close.
Ive never really fancied OC for the Churdle this year, but it must be remembered that this horse is open to any improvement.
Personally think next year will see him more of a major threat ,but would not be that surprised should he win or go close this year.
Report jasey January 23, 2014 9:10 PM GMT
Agree totally with that Bud
Report buddeliea January 23, 2014 9:16 PM GMT
20/1 with PP for the double of Irish CH and Cheltenham.
If anyone interested.
Report FOYLESWAR January 26, 2014 2:13 PM GMT
our conor very weak in betting for the irish champ hurdle today!
Report Joist January 26, 2014 2:47 PM GMT
Ran a cracker, Our Conor. Does anyone else derive no confidence from Danny Mullins in a finish though? When Our Conor cruises upsides the Fly, his flailing about is never going to be a match for Ruby Walsh/any other top jock. He's fine if OC can win on the snaff, but so would I be. In a driving finish, as surely it will be in the Champion Hurdle, is he really going to get Our Conor in front of Ruby on Hurricane Fly/AP on MTOY?
Report jasey January 26, 2014 2:58 PM GMT
Proper test for the Fly,i think  backers of both will be happy.
Report FOYLESWAR January 26, 2014 3:07 PM GMT
happy with that weak in the betting and a lot closer to hf  and  improvement to come !  he is very much in the mix
Report CVByrne January 26, 2014 3:10 PM GMT
Our Conor will improve for that. I just don't think he'll have the gears to reverse form with Fly on better ground in March. Especially as he'll be 2lbs worse off at the weights from today.
Report duffy January 26, 2014 3:11 PM GMT
Can't see what the jock did wrong there, travelled up to the fly, edged ahead and produced him to jump  the final flight beautifully whilst the fly made a slight mistake,got out battled on the run in by a real champion.......he's another one that will want a strong gallop.
Report FOYLESWAR January 26, 2014 3:11 PM GMT
any post race interviews from connections of the top 3 ?
Report jasey January 26, 2014 3:12 PM GMT
Yes agree,if he had have been good enough today he would have won imo
Report kavvie January 26, 2014 3:13 PM GMT
d hughes v happy.he improves in chelt he said..wp v an oc fan but the proximity of capt cee bee not a good sign
Report Joist January 26, 2014 3:21 PM GMT
I don't mean to say that D. Mullins did anything wrong, duffy, just pointing out that he's not as strong as some which now sounds all very obvious! Fascinating contest in store, I hope OC can improve again in March.
Report mushroom23 January 26, 2014 3:23 PM GMT
I'm Danny Mullins biggest critic but that was a fine ride. Just beaten by the better animal as he will be again in 6 weeks.
Report wellchief January 26, 2014 3:28 PM GMT
As mentioned above, Our Conor's time will be next year when he will be a lot stronger and when he's improved more.  The Fly will be 11, MTOY or Jezki, as well as Annie Power will go chasing, so I think whatever they do this year will be a bonus.

He went up in my estimations a lot after today.
Report sintonian January 27, 2014 8:13 AM GMT
Looks like MTOY & TNO will fight this one out imo.
Report unclepuncle January 27, 2014 11:37 AM GMT
27 Jan 14 08:13

Looks like MTOY & TNO will fight this one out imo.

While I'm a big TNO fan I don't like having STD on board so I'd happily take HF and OC in a match bet against you Sint.Devil
Report Harvester January 27, 2014 2:25 PM GMT
Completely agree with you uncle p re TNO and STD... in fact i think there's a very strong argument that TNO's form does not stack up for the churdle when you consider previous big races with decent opposition and close finishes: losing to AFC at last year's chelt trials, losing to Zarkandar at Aintree, losing to MTOY in Xmas hurdle. You also have to reconsider his victory in last year's neptune in light of the (lack of) quality and form of the other horses that day - none of them have gone on to do anything impressive. Also, his victories against Zarkandar this year have been against a horse which is, imo, regressing and have now been put into perspective by AP.

Quite simply STD gets nervous in these big races and goes for home way too early when under pressure - consequently, he will get found out (again) in what will be a very high quality renewal of the churdle.

I'm sure a lot of big buck's punters from saturday will feel the same!
Report unclepuncle January 27, 2014 2:38 PM GMT
Even his initials (STD) are rather alarming!!!Laugh
Report duffy January 27, 2014 2:40 PM GMT
I don't think think he was as keen as all that if I'm honest, I also don't think he's the best of jumpers either.
Report EUGENE KRABS January 27, 2014 8:05 PM GMT
Hughes said: "He's come out of the race absolutely fine and I'm very happy with where we are with the horse. We were a bit disappointed as it looked as though he might have it won at one stage, but I'm thrilled he improved, which I thought he would.

"He's just a bit young and for a five-year-old to do that, I think was a tremendous performance. He was nearly the last horse off the bridle which was a fantastic feat in itself beside that horse (Hurricane Fly).

"For three or four strides after the last I thought we had him but the other old boy just wore him down. Being a young horse, he should improve and I think Cheltenham improved him last year; he was definitely a stone better horse last year at Cheltenham.

"He appeared to love the track (at Cheltenham) and he's definitely a better horse on better ground. All in all, I think we'll be going to Cheltenham more optimistic than pessimistic and he must go there with a fighting chance."
Report sintonian January 27, 2014 9:37 PM GMT
STD is just 21yo. He is still learning so lets not forget that before we're quick to hang him.
Report Can't Catch Me January 27, 2014 9:51 PM GMT
I've been unsure about OC, but I thought it was a really good run. He must be entitled to improve more than most... and we have already seen he is better on decent ground and loves the track. I just couldn't have him on my mind for the CH this year, but am moving towards him now.
Report alleged22 January 27, 2014 10:17 PM GMT
well said sint
Report boingingbaggie January 28, 2014 12:05 AM GMT
Anyone remembering last year's Champion Hurdle, on decent ground, will recall Hurricane Fly hitting a very flat spot, and urged along quite early by Ruby Walsh.
Touched big prices, in running, that day.

He won't get the same opportunity to impose himself, against better opposition, if he hits that flat spot again, this time around, on (hopefully) better ground.

I think Our Conor, on this course, assuming better ground has arrived by then, will tater them all, up the hill.
Report Harvester January 28, 2014 9:09 AM GMT
i definitely fancy OC now for the Churdle, especially as i now believe TNO cant win the race - yes, STD may be young, but his nervousness will just play into the hands of mccoy and walsh etc..

I think OC now looks good at 7.6 tho' i still think MTOY is a big threat - in the hands of mccoy, a very good 2nd in the SNH at a very fast time, and has progressed well this season.

As people have already mentioned, there are plenty of horses which will want to take the race to HF and, at 11yrs old, he has to be vulnerable going up the hill.

Only problem bettingwise is UDS and AP - the jokers in the pack. Particularly AP with the 7lb allowance and form vs Zarkandar which at least matches TNO..
Report alleged22 January 28, 2014 9:17 AM GMT
the fly isn't 11....
Report Harvester January 28, 2014 10:20 AM GMT
sorry alleged .. typo.... but i think the point stands that the last 2 races in Ireland have been run in a way which suits HF. This is unlikely to happen in the Churdle due to what TNO, MTOY etc will want (good gallop) and fact that HF has never been that comfortable at Chelt (which proves what a great horse he is but i just think time and the opposition will catch up with him on the hill...)
Report stevo1 January 28, 2014 10:23 AM GMT
Who is setting the so called good gallop?
Report Arklearkle January 28, 2014 11:16 AM GMT
HF stays at least 2m 4f and has beaten Solwhit at that distance. It does not matter how a race is run he can handle all eventualities.
Report sintonian January 28, 2014 5:13 PM GMT
I can't see for one moment why OC will reverse form with HF let alone the UK runners. He was upsides HF on Sunday after the last but ended up beaten 1.5 lengths and will be 2lb worse off at the weights in March. He travelled well and ''blew up'' the time before that too at Xmas so I can't be having this need the run b0llox.
Report sintonian January 28, 2014 5:17 PM GMT
Nice to see Some Tikket bounce back the other day CCM. Looked good and probably well handicapped.
Report wellchief January 28, 2014 5:25 PM GMT
Agree Sint.

As a 5 year old, I would have expected him to have a better turn of foot than a 10 year old, but Hurricane Fly quickened away fairly readily.
Report sintonian January 28, 2014 5:35 PM GMT
There is also 6 weeks between the Irish & Champion Hurdles, well Chief. Enough time to give him a little breather inbetween so they can run for their life at Leopardstown, imo. He was fit.
Report ACStafford January 28, 2014 5:52 PM GMT
I see people saying OC will improve for better ground. Where does this theory come from? The form book says it was good to soft in the Triumph, but that was inaccurate. It had rained all morning. The later races were changed to soft.
Report Harvester January 28, 2014 6:17 PM GMT
well the last to 10yr olds who were in the CH as favourites were Rooster Booster and Istabraq ... and both didnt make it. Personally i think that the Chelt course will server OC better than HF (but i may be wrong here) ...

as regards a "good gallop", my understanding is that NTD will be putting a pacemaker in for TNO..

Bettingwise there's still the massive problem of AP who is the highest rated 2m hurdler taking into account her allowance..!?
Report voodoochild January 28, 2014 6:29 PM GMT
See I don't see Annie Power as being a massive problem betting wise.... If she lines up you back her and shortly after you collect. What's not to like?!
Report ACStafford January 28, 2014 6:55 PM GMT
NTD decided not to enter a pacemaker in the end. Maybe McManus should have stumped up for Captain Cee Bee to be entered as a pacemaker, as it's his two horses that need the strong pace.
Report inchcailoch January 28, 2014 7:00 PM GMT
Un De Sceuax will set the pace
Report buddeliea January 28, 2014 7:15 PM GMT
hope so
Report FOYLESWAR January 28, 2014 7:21 PM GMT
sint I can see where you are coming from regards our conor and hurricane fly ,fly beat him 1.5 length and will be 2lb better off at chelt so in theory should beat him at least 2.5 l ,but as we all  know it doesn't always work out like that , the irish champion hurdle was a slow run small field affair that will have little resemblance to the champion hurdle on the Tuesday. our conor improved a fair  bit from his last race and going by the way dessie hughes campaigned hardy Eustace, by memory hardy Eustace didn't win many preps /trials always seemed to be placed  but for his churdle wins he was spot on on the day it mattered ,I am hopefull that our conor is being brought on the same way to peak on the Tuesday ,it could be assumed that the irish champion hurdle was more important to hurricane fly than our conor seeing as he was going for a 4th ich  and record no of grade 1s. a great champion  hurricane fly but he is up against the new kids on the block and this will be arguably the best field he has faced he may well be up to it . but  think its fair to say that our conor has a fair bit more improvement to come as have 4 or 5 of the other up and comers .
the problem is any 1 of the top half dozen could win and it would not surprise anyone .just thought our conor offered a bit of value at the time of putting the thread up . anyway good luck with your bets and all will be revealed on the Tuesday .
Report ACStafford January 28, 2014 7:32 PM GMT
I'll be surprised if UDS runs. I hope he does, as he is interesting, but his participation would hinder Hurricane Fly's chances imo, as the strong pace will be benefical to three of his rivals. He's been campaigned as though he may be aimed at Punchestown this season, with the Champion being the target next season.
Report buddeliea January 28, 2014 7:45 PM GMT
Yep,would certainly hinder Fly's chances...and all the others!!
Doubt any of them would catch him!! except Annie Power....if she runs
Report sintonian January 29, 2014 2:09 PM GMT
That's laughable Budde. He's proven very little so far.
Report buddeliea January 29, 2014 4:54 PM GMT
yeh,i like havin a laugh Sint.

Seriously though,its possible!! But you are of course correct,theres no proven form.
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