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CVByrne
10 Jan 14 17:55
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Date Joined: 14 Mar 06
| Topic/replies: 5,105 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
Now that the key trials have been run over the Christmas period we have a proper picture shaping up and the form lines to work out my favourite race, the Champion Hurdle.

It was good to see there was nothing between The New One & My Tent or Yours at Kempton as we now have a solid form line to tie The New One into the rest of the fold. I couldn’t split them on that run as TNO was unlucky, but I think MTOY has more improvement to come having only had 1 run to TNO’s 2 prior to the race. I think both horses like Cheltenham, MTOY ran a blinder and just couldn’t get by a top class horse in Champange Fever, while TNO won the Neptune but beat pretty much nothing in the process as no horse has done a thing from that race since. So it just further points to the difficulty in splitting them when the face off again in March.

Over in Ireland though we had another horse who has form with MTOY from the Supreme - Jezki. Tom Segal had put up Jezki to win this race and said "how did I miss how well he ran in the Supreme, had lots of trouble in running and then clouted the last yet was only beaten 3l" I agree had he not had that trouble he would have been closer meaning his form is very close to that of My Tent or Yours a horse who now has form tied closely to TNO. The collateral form backs this up. Sametegal a consistent runner was beaten 28l in the Christmas Hurdle and that horse was beaten 18l on the bridle by Our Conor in the Triumph, he was good for more than the 18l that day. Jezki beat Our Conor 3l giving him 3lbs which puts him very close on collateral form to My Tent or Yours again, as he was in the Supreme. This gives me a handle on last year’s novices, something we didn’t have prior to Christmas. Which brings me on to.

Hurricane Fly won the Ryanair Hurdle in impressive fashion, 3l clear of a race fit Jezki, with Our Conor 3l back in 3rd in receipt of 3lbs. Yes Jezki was blocked off but he probably wouldn’t have been any closer to Fly even if he wasn’t as Fly idled after he went 3l clear after the last. It was the show of tactical speed which impressed me most in this true run race, especially after the last. Fly pulled 3l clear in a few strides and the race was over as he has never been pegged back in his career. This race was evidence that he’s as good as ever. Mullins has said post race "He could be better than ever this season, believe me", while also saying there was plenty of improvement to come which has always been the case with this horse, he improves with every run. So this gives me what I need to be fully confident in Hurricane Fly. He just needs to do what he always does, post an improved performance in the Irish Champion to solidify that confidence. If he sweeps aside Jezki and Our Conor convincingly and given the form line ties between Jezki & MTOY (backed up by McCoy finding it hard to split them) we can then feel confident in the merits of sticking with the Champion.

We are also are safe in the knowledge that no matter what the conditions they will be of no worry to Hurricane Fly, ground and race pace now don’t matter. While I agree soft ground would hinder his rivals and not him people forget what Ruby said in the debrief in the Ryanair Hurdle. He said he was happy to let the race be run at a crawl if they wanted as he had a horse who was listed level on the flat and likely better. So he knew he was on the fastest horse. I am totally unworried by the speed of any of his rivals in the Champion Hurdle, what Fly did in a matter of strides after the last in pulling out 3l on the field when asked to confirms for me he retains his speed and he is still the fastest horse in this race. His rivals are all National Hunt Bred and always lack that proper gear change that flat bred horses have, it’s not a coincidence 6/7 Champion Hurdle winners have been flat bred since the drainage improvements to the track.

He seems to be saving a bit though after he hits the front and only does enough, this was evident in the Champion Hurdle too, when he needed his speed he used it to make up 5l in no time to close up after the 3rd last to be back on the bit. He then just kept the 2l lead all the way to the line and never looked like getting beaten. He retains the hurdling fluency, tactical speed and stamina that makes him one of the greats. He now settles in his races which is a huge asset that can offset any age concern. There is no need for Ruby to worry about trying to get him to settle in races, now Ruby can ride the race he wants to and with the assets this horse has, the huge talent the jockey has should not be underestimated here.

The only note of caution is these great horses usually only show their age and weaknesses in the cauldron of Cheltenham where in the final yards sometimes the age can tell. But until that happens the little hero cannot be deserted.

I know same old story for the 4th years running. But should he post an improved performance in Irish Champion as expected, the bookies will cut him to outright favourite and so there is value in taking the nrnb now.

6pts win Hurricane Fly @ 3/1 nrnb
Pause Switch to Standard View Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly
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Report jasey January 12, 2014 2:09 AM GMT
i have also changed my mind on the Fly,but in my mind i am leaning towards TNO as the one who i think can improve past HF.
Report Giddy January 12, 2014 1:29 PM GMT
How do you boys rate Un De Sceaux? Looks like a machine to me. Hacked up again today and next target is the Red Mills
If he is successful there Mullins reckons Champion hurdle
Report chief dan January 12, 2014 1:43 PM GMT
yea could be the next make a stand I just hope he runs in champ hurdle an sets it up for samWink
Report Howdi January 12, 2014 1:47 PM GMT
Giddy ....no way of knowing as Mullins keeps running him against nothing (although not his fault) - Mullins could really sort out his pecking order in the Irish Champion hurdle if he wanted to but wouldn't mind a bet he just runs H/Fly and we won't really know until Cheltenham. Geeting a little uncompetitive in Ireland but makes for an exciting Champion Hurdle , best, most indepth I can recall this century.
Report sintonian January 12, 2014 2:00 PM GMT
UDS is beating nothing of note yet. Thumped a horse today who ran in a 3m chase last time out.
Report Howdi January 12, 2014 2:40 PM GMT
horse he battered finished 3rd rated 143 so he is interesting no doubt about that.
Report sj January 12, 2014 2:55 PM GMT
Needs to be more fluent over his hurdles, but some engiene
Report Ramruma January 12, 2014 4:42 PM GMT
no way of knowing as Mullins keeps running him against nothing (although not his fault)

iirc Mullins did say he was deliberately keeping UDS to lesser company.
Report buddeliea January 12, 2014 5:23 PM GMT
What an exciting horse he will be in the CH.
Think hes gonna surprise a few!!
Report jasey January 12, 2014 6:44 PM GMT
That is the reason i don't want UDS to run.
Report buddeliea January 12, 2014 7:12 PM GMT
Get him on your side.
Report Giddy January 14, 2014 12:23 AM GMT
Just been through UDS form,and everything his beat has gone on to do zilch.His last run in France ,15 months ago,he beat a horse called Upsala Collonges
7 lenghts. This beast has run 10 times since and has never got anywhere near winning.He beat Sammy Black at Punchestown less than a year ago, and SB
did win on his next outing but has run 3 times since that, and has been well beaten.
Although he looks really good on the eye, jury's out for me until after The Red Mills
Report cyclops January 14, 2014 10:13 AM GMT
While he was eased a touch on the run in, the fact that his time was only 2 seconds quicker than the modest novice on the card indicates that, contrary to Ruby's assertion that they were really travelling, the form amounts to nothing.
Having backed him(Champion Hurdle thread - September) at just under 40's I certainly have a vested interest in him winning the Champion but find it hard to reconcile the way he's been campaigned so far with a realistic challenge for the crown. While not a trends person, to win a Champion on the back of, probably, five career runs over hurdles (plus two in bumpers), having never run in a Grade One (or even Grade Two so far)and having not yet faced an opponent rated even 140 would shred every preconception about what is needed to win. It would be a colossal performance to beat a strong field in his first effort in anything like the top class.
There is also the possibility that he needs soft ground, as he's never run on anything else. That said, his promise is endless and he will add intrigue to an already fascinating renewal.
Report nostaw_01 January 14, 2014 10:47 AM GMT
While everybody may have differing views on who can win and can't win this race, one thing we can all agree on is just how exciting this race could be if all the major players turn up. Hurricane Fly, The New One, MTOY, Jezki and Our Conor,and with the extra intrigue of not knowing how good UDS could be. My pocket says Our Conor or MTOY, but my heart, head and eyes just want to see all six of them jump the last together. What a race we could be in for if all the market principles turn up at 100%. 9 weeks, 4 hours, 30 minutes.....let the countdown begin
Report nostaw_01 January 14, 2014 10:47 AM GMT
*8weeks!!! I've gained a week already
Report Ramruma January 14, 2014 11:38 AM GMT
Another question is whether Jezki was unlucky to get hampered in the Supreme last year and Ryanair last time behind the Fly, or whether he gets hampered repeatedly because he is not quite good enough.
Report Slabster January 14, 2014 1:55 PM GMT
While he was eased a touch on the run in, the fact that his time was only 2 seconds quicker than the modest novice on the card indicates that, contrary to Ruby's assertion that they were really travelling

You should watch the two races side by side. He was a couple of lengths clear of the maiden hurdle leaders jumping the third but it was when he began the run out of the straight that he really put the foot down. By the time they were halfway down the back Un De Sceaux and Foildubh were well clear of the maiden hurdle runners, and even Akatara jumped a hurdle or two ahead of the leaders of the maiden. The maiden hurdlers quickened to close the gap somewhat by the time they turned in to the straight but Un De Sceaux was still well clear of Aklan jumping the last. He was then eased as Aklan was asked to race clear and the gap closed somewhat. You also said UDS hasn't faced an opponent rated 140; Foildubh rated 143, beaten 81 lengths; Waaheb rated 140 (was rated 145 when he faced UDS), beaten 21 lengths.
Report Giddy January 14, 2014 3:25 PM GMT
No mention of Ptit Zig on here. He goes at Haydock on Saturday on his preferred testing ground. Think his interesting if it does get soft ground at Cheltenham
Report Ramruma January 14, 2014 4:30 PM GMT
No mention of Ptit Zig on here

5-year-olds don't usually win the Champion Hurdle but in this particular case we have a line through Diakali.

Ptit Zig came second behind Diakali who was comprehensively twonked by Our Conor in the Triumph and by Jezki in the Hatton Grace last month.
Report Giddy January 14, 2014 5:03 PM GMT
Think Ptit Zig has improved significantly since then. Take your point though!
Report CVByrne January 14, 2014 8:13 PM GMT
Wow 108 new posts, this horse has always caused lots of debate.
Report sintonian January 15, 2014 8:02 AM GMT
Turns out Foildubh was injured during the race. Form is not worth 2 onions.
Report kavvie January 15, 2014 10:10 AM GMT
if its faster than soft the fly is a place lay.
Report cyclops January 15, 2014 10:41 AM GMT
Look through the form book and some of the Hurricane's best form is on good going, especially at the Punchestown Festival.
Report Scuttler January 15, 2014 10:41 AM GMT
Sintonian Foildubh's trainer has said this last night: "He must be some horse. I don’t think there’s a better one in Ireland. He could win the Champion Hurdle,” Ryan said of Un de Sceaux. Hurricane Fly has been a great champion but I think he [Un de Sceaux] would beat him...where's the injury stuff about Foildubh.
Report cyclops January 15, 2014 10:49 AM GMT
OK, Slabster, he's run against two officially rated just over 140, but Waaheb is dodgy and Foildubh was beaten out of sight by a 104 horse on Sunday and stopped as if shot. Surely nothing from the form angle there to impress. Don't get me wrong, having backed UDS at 40's I'd dearly love to shout his claims and he clearly could have done no more in any race he's run in. Just the really strange preparation that tempers my enthusiasm (not to mention huge respect for HF)and, if the Red Mills is his next race, he'll have no relevant experience going into the Champion.
Report Scuttler January 15, 2014 12:02 PM GMT
18 entries...

ACT OF KALANISI (IRE)
ANNIE POWER
CINDERS AND ASHES
COTTON MILL
GRANDOUET (FR)
GRUMETI 
HURRICANE FLY (IRE)
JEZKI (IRE) 
MELODIC RENDEZVOUS
MONTBAZON (FR)
MY TENT OR YOURS (IRE)
OUR CONOR (IRE)
PTIT ZIG (FR)
ROCK ON RUBY (IRE)
ROLLING STAR (FR)
THE NEW ONE (IRE)
THOUSAND STARS (FR)
UN DE SCEAUX (FR)
Report sintonian January 15, 2014 2:42 PM GMT
Wherever you took that quote from Skuttler. It was on the same article on sporting life website. That is just the trainers opinion of the horse, that's all. Prior to that he was saying how Foildubh hated the ground last time, and cited the fact his last win was on Good, and also bemoaned the fact that horse is now injured as he thought he had a ''right chance'' in the handicap chase they were going to run him in this coming weekend. Maybe they regret running now i'd say!
Report buddeliea January 15, 2014 5:48 PM GMT
Cyclops, I wouldnt be too worried about not too much experience going into the Churdle with UDS.
Its shaping up to be a fairly small field imo,plus he will be out in front away from any potential trouble in running.
Only think im really bothered about is him allowed to line up!!
If he is allowed,i will be excited for sure,and expecting anything!!
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 6:11 PM GMT
I think this UDS has a fair engine on him. He could just come out and crush something decent before March and end up the surprise of the race. Mullins never had a prob in pitching in Thousand Stars against the Fly 47536 times but seems to want to avoid him with this thing
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 6:13 PM GMT
In the warm up races I might add....can see the Fly struggling home in the Irish champ and then the 3/1 won't look so hot when out comes TNO and Tent
Report cyclops January 15, 2014 11:11 PM GMT
Budd, yes he'll be out on his own. My concern is that he'll be attempting what I believe no horse has even attempted, yet alone succeeded in. The lightly raced champions to date have all been ex flat horses i.e. Alderbrook, Royal Gait, who may have had little experience of hurdling yet plenty of experience of racing. To win a Champion after 7 career runs......... maybe I'm arguing against myself but it seems a heck of a tall order.
Report alleged22 January 15, 2014 11:34 PM GMT
UDS  no chance imo
Report Tory January 16, 2014 12:00 AM GMT
Unless they believe he can beat HF then why run UDS? HF is one of two the in the field who would be happy at a crawl, alongside TNO, as they have the most potent turn of foot.

If they don't think he can beat HF and they run him it will okay into the hands of MTOY, jezki and Our Conor
Report Tory January 16, 2014 12:01 AM GMT
Meant to way 'play' not okay!
Report barnesy January 16, 2014 2:38 AM GMT
Would be some performance for Un De Sceaux to win this the first time he is ever asked to race off the bridle, unless of course he never sees a rival and wins without having to do so
Report buddeliea January 16, 2014 7:43 AM GMT
Exactly what ive been saying Tory, I cannot see UDS in the race if they think he cant win, as his presence will aid the Flys main threats.

barnesy,
That's the thing mate, none of us know how good he is.
If he lines up than im of the opinion that hes really fancied by connections, and could well win without seeing another horse.
Report FOYLESWAR January 16, 2014 8:46 AM GMT
wpm said and I quote IF he goes to the festival it will be champion hurdle "IF" and this is our wullie remember ! if you are on nrnb or nrfb then you can relax no harm done ,
Report alleged22 January 16, 2014 9:07 AM GMT
and could well win without seeing another horse.

LaughLaughLaugh
Report buddeliea January 16, 2014 12:16 PM GMT
???
Report buddeliea January 16, 2014 12:28 PM GMT
Ah, I see why you think it funny now, just looked back and notice you say the horse has no chance.
Well Considering the horse is totally unexposed as to his capabalities, I find that a bit daft to be honest, he literally could be anything, none of us know yet.

Open mind with young improving unexposed horses is advised.
Report alleged22 January 16, 2014 1:51 PM GMT
I think he.s a nice horse budd, do I think he can win this years churdle no I don,t, but the could win without seeing another horse is just a bit too much if im honest
Report buddeliea January 16, 2014 5:22 PM GMT
Well hes a front runner so if hes to win the race he wont see another horse, unless anything is silly enough to take him on, certainly the fancied ones wont.

Its how I see it mate....that he only runs in the race if they think hes a big chance.
And if he runs, it will be from the front.
If hes no chance it means he aint in the race imo.

I really think a bet with the concession of nrnb,or nrfb is the way to go with a horse that literally could be anything, and imo is fancied should he line up.
Report Eeternaloptimist January 17, 2014 12:43 AM GMT
My conclusion remains what it has for months. I've been following racing for nearly forty years and have had some good returns on this specific race but this year's event is a complete and utter head messer. Anybody truly confident is either mad or has balls of steel.
Report Eeternaloptimist January 17, 2014 12:45 AM GMT
I hasten to add that despite my reservations about the course and what I thought prior to the season the only logic I can see for anything like a confident prediction is coming from those who say show us that The Fly will be beaten.
Report buddeliea January 17, 2014 7:40 AM GMT
That gives you every other horse in the race.
You are struggling!!
Still at least it narrows it down for youLaugh

Personally the Fly is the last one I would eliminate straight away, but we do bet against each other on here, so its all good..
Report Eeternaloptimist January 17, 2014 12:15 PM GMT
Either you've misread or I haven't been clear. My thoughts are that the strongest of a bunch of confusing cases until proven otherwise remains with those saying The Fly will win. I may as well elaborate but it will probably only highlight my changing thoughts:

I took a firm view following last seasons supreme. I thought that specific race was spectacularly good and decided that I would be following the front three this year. CF going chasing helped. In my mind I couldn't split Jezki and The Tent because each had something to recommend them over the other this season. When I saw The New One touched off by Zarkandar at Aintree this reinforced my view. I didn't pay too much attention to Our Conor because I think 5 year olds tend to need to be very good and the champion field average for those to win. I thought both that The Fly would be slightly on the wane at 10 and that this field would expose the slight reservations I have about him at Cheltenham.

So this season starts and the first thing I see is TNO wiping the floor with ROR and I was seriously impressed. ROR is pretty consistent and the ease with which TNO stood him on his head gave me great pause for thought which was reinforced when he ran away from Zarkandar. But by this stage a nearly equally interesting newcomer had entered calculations because I was nearly as impressed by Annie Power at Ascot as I had been by TNO and thought if she was to run in the champion and get soft ground she would be a big player.

Then TNO and The Tent meet at Kempton and the picture becomes a little murkier because depending on your view both emerge with reputations enhanced or slightly diminished. Then Annie Power smashes Zarkandar again in a slowly run two and a half miler on the kind of ground which would make her a serious player thus further thickening the plot.

Then to put the top hat on after a lacklustre first run The Fly beats off Jezki apparently comfortably. How much do we allow that horse for McCoy's poor ride? How much do we allow for The Fly's apparent continuing brilliance in Ireland? Does the evidence of this season suggest that Jezki hasn't made the necessary improvement? Did Our Conor enhance his own claims despite being beaten off comfortably?

So many questions. So I've resolved to stick with what I think I know. I think The Fly has shown that he is as good as ever. Consequently I still think it will take an outstanding performance to lower his colours in March. I think more than one horse might be capable of doing that but they have to go out on the track and do it and I couldn't be at all sure that one of them will or which one will.

Glad I've cleared that up? Laugh
Report buddeliea January 17, 2014 12:19 PM GMT
okey doke....I think!! Laugh
Report tomdeane January 17, 2014 1:19 PM GMT
What I know with absolute certainty is that I haven't looked forward to a Festival race this much for a long time. I think it's a brilliant, brilliant race...
Report tomdeane January 17, 2014 1:21 PM GMT
What's helping to make it so exciting is that, as Eeternal says, there are so many that might be capable of winning, and you can genuinely picture scenarios in which they do. As of now I have an ante-post bet on TNO. I think OC is the over-priced horse, but the one I'm most fearful of is MTOY.

How you interpret the Christmas Hurdle is key (did it enhance the claims of both, or slightly diminish them). My belief is that these two are ahead of the Irish contingent and I thought that looked a great race between two superstars.
Report ACStafford January 17, 2014 1:27 PM GMT
I don't remember ever looking forward to a race this much. There are so many horses that are potentially top notch. If we get a close finish in the Irish Champion, it will make the race even more exciting.
Report Eeternaloptimist January 17, 2014 3:09 PM GMT
Who needs to bet on it? This is potentially a champion for the ages. The owners of these other potential major players like Annie and Un Seux should be encouraged to throw their horses into the fray and make it even special. They'll probably never have another opportunity to take part in a piece of racing history such as this one is likely to be.
Report Mr Mischief January 17, 2014 6:09 PM GMT

Jan 17, 2014 -- 12:15PM, Eeternaloptimist wrote:


Either you've misread or I haven't been clear. My thoughts are that the strongest of a bunch of confusing cases until proven otherwise remains with those saying The Fly will win. I may as well elaborate but it will probably only highlight my changing thoughts:I took a firm view following last seasons supreme. I thought that specific race was spectacularly good and decided that I would be following the front three this year. CF going chasing helped. In my mind I couldn't split Jezki and The Tent because each had something to recommend them over the other this season. When I saw The New One touched off by Zarkandar at Aintree this reinforced my view. I didn't pay too much attention to Our Conor because I think 5 year olds tend to need to be very good and the champion field average for those to win. I thought both that The Fly would be slightly on the wane at 10 and that this field would expose the slight reservations I have about him at Cheltenham.So this season starts and the first thing I see is TNO wiping the floor with ROR and I was seriously impressed. ROR is pretty consistent and the ease with which TNO stood him on his head gave me great pause for thought which was reinforced when he ran away from Zarkandar. But by this stage a nearly equally interesting newcomer had entered calculations because I was nearly as impressed by Annie Power at Ascot as I had been by TNO and thought if she was to run in the champion and get soft ground she would be a big player.Then TNO and The Tent meet at Kempton and the picture becomes a little murkier because depending on your view both emerge with reputations enhanced or slightly diminished. Then Annie Power smashes Zarkandar again in a slowly run two and a half miler on the kind of ground which would make her a serious player thus further thickening the plot.Then to put the top hat on after a lacklustre first run The Fly beats off Jezki apparently comfortably. How much do we allow that horse for McCoy's poor ride? How much do we allow for The Fly's apparent continuing brilliance in Ireland? Does the evidence of this season suggest that Jezki hasn't made the necessary improvement? Did Our Conor enhance his own claims despite being beaten off comfortably?So many questions. So I've resolved to stick with what I think I know. I think The Fly has shown that he is as good as ever. Consequently I still think it will take an outstanding performance to lower his colours in March. I think more than one horse might be capable of doing that but they have to go out on the track and do it and I couldn't be at all sure that one of them will or which one will.Glad I've cleared that up?


That is an excellent summation of how this years champion hurdle is shaping up. That fact that the Fly looks as good as ever suggests that it's going to take something really special to beat him and who's to say that a pretender of rare quality might not present himself (or herself!) yet. But in the absence of any concrete evidence for that so far I think it could be a case old the old dog for the hard road. Again.
There's a hurricane a comin'Devil

Report kavvie January 17, 2014 6:19 PM GMT
the race im looking forward to most.ive our conor backed at 8s and 10s ew..im hopeful only.but no matter what, the fly.tno.mtoy,jezki.annie,uno.our conor...if they all lined up???!!?..a race for the ages
Report Giddy January 17, 2014 7:13 PM GMT
Really Interesting and knowledgeable thread. Like many, I'm finding it hard to side with one horse. Keeping all my options open for the time being and would love to see
Ptit Zig run a big race tomorrow. Thought he had Champion hurdle aspirations when ran a huge race in the Ladbroke,attempting to give 20 odd pounds to a very progressive
horse in Willow Saviour. Was 7 lenghts clear of the rest giving weight all round. As has been already pointed out to me on here,that he has the 5 yr old stat to overcome and
his form from last year suggests he is nowhere good enough. IMO he has improved out of all recognition from last term.
Nicholls holds him in very high regard and the plan is chasing next term,but he has stated that he will take his chance in the CH if it comes up soft
I have had a few quid at around 240's , and maybe clutching at straws,but this horse is seriously progressive
Report CVByrne January 18, 2014 12:25 PM GMT
In response to dwm

dwm - Yes that was my mistake, MTOY is flat bred, though he never raced on the flat. What my worry for him is that his future is over fences. They were mulling whether to stay hurdling or go chasing this season. I feel the Champion Hurdle is by and large won in recent times horses who are flat bred and who are never going over fences. I feel horses who have scope to jump a fence lack the slickness of hurdling and Champion Hurdlers are lightening over hurdles.

I believe the Champion Hurdle is between Hurricane Fly and MTOY. I feel quick ground around the Cheltenham Old Course will suit those two more than anyone else. They are the ones with the flat speed needed to win.
Report Mr Mischief January 18, 2014 2:03 PM GMT
Un De Ssceaux very weak now. The rumour mill suggests Annie Power will go for the churdle
Report tomdeane January 18, 2014 8:24 PM GMT
As I've said before, I am against Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham this year as I don't think he's the same horse there and this year's race is stronger in depth than those he's run in before. That said, I respect him for the brilliant racehorse he is. However, CV, I don't agree about him being suited by a speed test. I don't think he's the quickest two-miler in there by any means, and to me, the pace that ensued mid-race the last two years is what did for him once, and what nearly did for him twice (I think Rock On Ruby did too much last year in tiring ground, and if Noel had gone a little slower he might have repeated his 2012 win). To me, good ground would be a major concern, even for Hurricane's real supporters.
Report dwm767 January 19, 2014 11:38 AM GMT
Thanks CV.

My Tent Or Your was trained to the second for the Christmas Hurdle; horse at the absolute peak of his powers, running under near optimum conditions - Good to Soft ground would have been favoured. For me, that's as good as he is. He's got nothing more to give over Hurdles. I agree he's got the make of a chaser, and I think he'll run his race in defeat in the Champion Hurdle, and be targeted at the Arkle next season.

Hurricane Fly; I'm torn a bit - like My Tent Or Yours I think he was spot on at Leopardstown, and again I'm not convinced there's anything more to come, albeit what he has to offer is of an extremely high standard and he's the horse they all have to beat.

The New One; he'll be better at Cheltenham than he was at Kempton, and I think he'll reverse form with My Tent Or Yours. Will that be enough to win the race? Possibly; Jezki and Our Conor are the two that give me cause for concern. We won't see Our Conor at his absolute peak until the day, and on that basis he could be anything, regardless of what he does between now and then. Jezki doesn't have tactical pace but he's still a very good horse, and quick enough to challenge given an end to end gallop. It's interesting how he's held up to challenge late on; he lost the Supreme last year by conceding first run to My Tent Or Yours and Champagne Fever, and didn't have the turn of foot to get on terms once the one two kicked for home. If he's ridden more prominently this time around, just off the pace, and leads jumping the last I think he could be hard to past.

Haven't had a bet in the race yet, simply because I want to back Our Conor and Jezki, and I think both will be a bigger price on the day than they are now, because I'm not sure they'll show their true credentials beforehand.
Report Tory January 19, 2014 1:30 PM GMT
Dwm767 - the paddock reporters after the Xmas hurdle said TNO was trained to the minute and if appeared there was quite a bit left to work on with MTOY!
Report dwm767 January 20, 2014 7:19 AM GMT
That only goes to prove any Tom, Dick or Harry can get a job paddock reporting these days...
Report ACStafford January 20, 2014 10:26 AM GMT
Why do you think MTOY was trained to the minute for the Christmas Hurdle? Surely the Champion has always been the big aim. I'm not saying he'd have been unfit, but I'd be surprised if he was 100%. Everything I've read seems to suggest that too.
Report cyclops January 20, 2014 1:22 PM GMT
dwm, you seem to be making a lot of subjective assumptions about the likely improvement, or lack of it, of the principals. In particular, Walsh was adamant that there would be more to come from HF as the season progressed and, with a third Champion the overwhelming objective, why are you not convinced there's anything more to come?
Report dwm767 January 22, 2014 9:13 AM GMT
Personally, I think it’s very naive to assume that success at the Cheltenham Festival is the be all and end all for these horses. That’s not to say all connections of Hurricane Fly won’t do everything they can for him to win a 3rd Champion Hurdle, but racing is a business at the end of the day, and in business it’s not good practice to put all your eggs in one basket. Hurricane Fly is 10-years-old, he hasn’t shown his best form at Cheltenham to date, and he’s got an exceptionally good standard of rivals to compete against this time round. As horses get older, it gets harder to bring them to the peak of their form; Willie Mullins is a shrewd man and knows that at 10-years-old they can’t afford to be passing over Grade 1 success in hope of one run in March. Our Conor and Jezki can; they’ve got time on their side. They can afford to concede the Grade 1’s to Hurricane Fly this season and use them as stepping stones towards a peak performance in the Champion Hurdle because if remaining sound, they’ll be back next season, and two or three more seasons after that, able to compete at the very top level. At very most Hurricane Fly has this season and next left in him; time is running out on his career, and so connections will want him to win as many races as possible before he’s retired to the status of an all time great. Does he need to win the Champion Hurdle this season to cement that legacy? No, he’s now won more Grade 1 races than any other horse, and that’s why I don’t believe the comments of connections that there’s more to come this season. He’s running to his absolute best, because Willie Mullins knows that the competition in Ireland aren’t, and that presented an opportunity to complete the Grade 1 feat.

JP McManus bought Jezki because AP told him My Tent Or Yours wasn’t a Cheltenham horse. Henderson knows the same, which is why his primary target last season was the Betfair Hurdle, and his primary target this season the Christmas Hurdle. He ran in last year’s Supreme because he’s got so much class, and he’ll run in the Champion Hurdle this year for the same reason; all it takes is an injury here or there, an infection spread throughout a yard which we’ve seen multiple times in recent years in the lead up to the Festival, and all of a sudden you’re all but guaranteed in a diminished field to run at least a place on class alone.

I’m not saying you should lay Hurricane Fly or My Tent Or Yours, or that they can’t or won’t win, I’m just offering an argument that despite what respective connections are saying, they might be taking a punt at the Champion Hurdle in March whereas others in the field will have made a thought out and considered investment.
Report Eeternaloptimist January 22, 2014 12:31 PM GMT
Well it's all about opinions and that is an interesting one. I see no reason why connections won't be doing the same this year as they have sought to do with The Fly every other year. They build throughout the season with the aim of having him peak in the spring on the basis that a 90-95% Fly is good enough to win the early season grade 1's in Ireland. He came on from his first run to his second as he does each year. Admittedly that is where the most improvement comes but we'll see on Sunday whether he improves again as connections claim he will.
Report harry callaghan January 22, 2014 12:40 PM GMT
dwn 767 this is a pure guess work and not based on fact

JP McManus bought Jezki because AP told him My Tent Or Yours wasn’t a Cheltenham horse



jp mcmanus likes the family, as has bought jered and jenari from the owner/breeder...the reason he payed so much for jezki is because the owner/breeder said this was the best horse that had been produced by the mare, not that jered and jenari weren't decent sorts in there own right, but that jezki was on a different level hence mccmanus buying the horse for 500k

nothing to do with my tent or yours, just that jezki is a top prospect in his own right and mccmanus's liking for the family
Report Ballydoyle January 22, 2014 1:44 PM GMT
dwm...thats the bad thing about NH racing. Very little festivals with one big one in March. On the flat there are big festivals month in month out
Report ACStafford January 22, 2014 1:50 PM GMT
I actually like the fact that it all gears towards Cheltenham. It's something to look forward to all year; there's no flat meeting that compares. It also leaves us with far more time to debate about it. We'd have far less excuse for these pointless discussions if it wasnt for the Festival
Report ACStafford January 22, 2014 1:53 PM GMT
What would we do with our lives? :p
Report dwm767 January 22, 2014 3:14 PM GMT
Harry Callaghan, sorry, you're wrong.

I'm not contesting JP likes the family, but he bought Jezki at the time he did because at that point, My Tent Or Yours wasn't being considered for the Supreme Novice Hurdle. I know for a fact the Henderson yard have never considered My Tent Or Yours to be a Cheltenham horse - he's a flat bred, speed type, suited to flat, speed tracks.
Report dwm767 January 22, 2014 3:16 PM GMT
Sunday is massive for Hurricane Fly, because if he doesn't win I don't believe he can win the Champion Hurdle. I'd suggest he's a little further forward than he has been previous years at this stage given the quality of the opposition he's had to face.
Report brandyontherocks January 22, 2014 8:20 PM GMT
Dwn. I agree the season is not all about Cheltenham, but for the fly I believe it is. He has proven to be an exceptional racehorse so his main target is to stamp his legacy by winning a 3rd champion hurdle.  Yes there are other grade 1's to win and he will win them, but his main target is the champion.
Your theory on JP buying Jezki because McCoy thinks My Tent Or Yours can not win at Cheltenham is surely pure guess work!!! Unless you know tony personally of course?
Report ACStafford January 22, 2014 8:47 PM GMT
It's possible that MTOY may not be at his best at Cheltenham, but I don't think we've seen enough to be sure of that yet, and he was backed well enough there last year. He also drifted at Kempton, which suggests to me that connections probably didn't think he was fully wound up.
Report barnesy January 22, 2014 11:19 PM GMT
So Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson are plundering the winter prizes while Jessica Harrington, Dessie Hughes and Nigel Twiston-Davies peak their horses for the spring festivals. Sounds right!
Report brandyontherocks January 22, 2014 11:45 PM GMT
Barnesy Grin
Apparently so
Report Mr Mischief January 23, 2014 3:24 AM GMT

Jan 22, 2014 -- 11:19PM, barnesy wrote:


So Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson are plundering the winter prizes while Jessica Harrington, Dessie Hughes and Nigel Twiston-Davies peak their horses for the spring festivals. Sounds right!


Laugh
Nail on the head bruv

Report dwm767 January 23, 2014 9:27 AM GMT
Let me clarify my points here...

1) My Tent Or Yours & Hurricane Fly are taking a punt at the Champion Hurdle; The New One, Jezki & Our Conor are investing their season's in the one race.
2) My Tent Or Yours was trained for the Christmas Hurdle; that was his seasonal target, mission accomplished, anything else is a bonus.
3) Hurricane Fly is ahead of Jezki & Our Conor as regards condition; the latter pair will not peak until March 11th.

I'll leave this alone now; just making the point for consideration that you might not want to take everything you've seen and heard to date on face value. I wouldn't be surprised if Our Conor repeats his Triumph Hurdle feat and wins going away on the bridle, I wouldn't be surprised if Jezki outstays them all to the line given a more prominent ride, and I wouldn't be surprised if The New One emulates Rooster Booster, cruises through the race and leaves them for dead jumping the last. I would be surprised if Hurricane Fly wins, and I would be even more surprised if My Tent Or Yours wins.

Best of luck.
Report Tory January 23, 2014 9:39 AM GMT
Absolutely bonkers theory!! MTOY's main target as Xmas hurdle - wow LaughLaugh
Report Eeternaloptimist January 23, 2014 12:10 PM GMT
I have to agree. The only sane part of that argument is that Jezki and Our Conor are being trained to peak in the spring. Anybody who doesn't think that The Fly is being aimed to join the immortals with a third champion is out of his mind. Similarly with the Tent. If connections were giving serious consideration to going chasing this season then there's only one race which would make such a calculation logical.
Report Slabster January 23, 2014 12:52 PM GMT
I think it's likely that Jezki was the fittest of the three principles in the Ryanair Hurdle. He had two runs under his belt and isn't a big gross horse. Mullins has said the Fly wasn't at 100%, and given that he was blatantly well below peak fitness in the Morgiana I'd be inclined to believe that there's more to work on. It was basically Our Conor's first run of the season and he was probably the least ready of the three.

In the Christmas Hurdle I'd strongly disagree with dwm. The New One had had two previous runs, one of which was less than two weeks before Kempton. I very much doubt he was lacking for fitness. My Tent Or Yours is a bigger type of animal, harder to get fit I would think, and also was having just his second run.
Report Mr Mischief January 23, 2014 1:40 PM GMT

Jan 23, 2014 -- 9:27AM, dwm767 wrote:


Let me clarify my points here...1) My Tent Or Yours & Hurricane Fly are taking a punt at the Champion Hurdle; The New One, Jezki & Our Conor are investing their season's in the one race.2) My Tent Or Yours was trained for the Christmas Hurdle; that was his seasonal target, mission accomplished, anything else is a bonus.3) Hurricane Fly is ahead of Jezki & Our Conor as regards condition; the latter pair will not peak until March 11th.I'll leave this alone now; just making the point for consideration that you might not want to take everything you've seen and heard to date on face value. I wouldn't be surprised if Our Conor repeats his Triumph Hurdle feat and wins going away on the bridle, I wouldn't be surprised if Jezki outstays them all to the line given a more prominent ride, and I wouldn't be surprised if The New One emulates Rooster Booster, cruises through the race and leaves them for dead jumping the last. I would be surprised if Hurricane Fly wins, and I would be even more surprised if My Tent Or Yours wins.Best of luck.


Jesus weptLaugh

Report alleged22 January 23, 2014 6:39 PM GMT
imo the tent was trained specifically for the xmas hurdle, whereas TNO went there as an afterthought, he was trained to win the bula
Report CVByrne January 23, 2014 7:30 PM GMT
dwm are you saying that Hurricane Fly is not being trained to peak for one race, the Champion Hurdle? That MTOY was trained to peak for the Christmas Hurdle!!?

I believe TNO given the lowly connections is out to pick up as many good races as possible and collect important prize money. While Jezki had 2 runs before xmas to be fit as he could be to lower Hurricane Fly's colours.


To say I disagree with your opinion would be understating it. I hold a completely contrary opinion. That idea that Hurricane Fly would not be trained to peak at exactly one race, his bid for a 3rd Champion Hurdle is - in my view and likely the view of the majority of people - quite proposterous.
Report brandyontherocks January 23, 2014 7:58 PM GMT
I think in 21 years of following this great game, that statement from dwn is one if the worst I've read/heard.
Report brandyontherocks January 23, 2014 8:02 PM GMT
Darn phone.   Of of of
Report jasey January 23, 2014 9:22 PM GMT
Agree.
I am still getting over "the fly hasn't shown his best form at cheltenham to date"  walofs
Report barnesy January 23, 2014 9:37 PM GMT
Don't disagree with that part Jasey, I think you could put together a rock solid case to support that claim.
Report tomdeane January 23, 2014 9:45 PM GMT
I completely agree with that barnesy. To me it's pretty clear that he hasn't shown his best form at Cheltenham.
Report CVByrne January 23, 2014 9:58 PM GMT
Even Ruby has said Fly hasn't shown his best at Cheltenham. But I don't worry about it too much, first year he was beyond keen as the pace wasn't that fast. The next year he was a sick horse all season. So it leaves last year where I think he went to sleep too much and had to be woken up earlier to not let them get too much of a lead. But Fly was cantering all over them coming to 2 out and he won it well.

He gets to run so often in Ireland we get to forget his less than impressive performances and just remember his two awesome wins at Punchestown in April.
Report jasey January 23, 2014 10:13 PM GMT
Well his record suggests otherwise
Report Eeternaloptimist January 23, 2014 10:33 PM GMT
Disagree Jasey. When he is bang on in Ireland he laughs at them. At Cheltenham his record is all out to beat Peddlers, out with the washing behind Rock On Ruby and scrubbed along behind the same horse until the suicidal early pace played into his hands. In no way does his Cheltenham form represent his best.
Report CVByrne January 23, 2014 11:24 PM GMT
I disagree there, Fly won very well last year. He was cantering all over them coming to 2 out and was in front miles too soon. People are tying to see him being shaken up early as a sign he was in trouble. If he was in trouble he wouldn't have been back on the bit coming to 2 out even after he had to jink to avoid Grandouet after he fell. In 2011 he was far too keen and pulled hard, 2012 I maintain he wasn't himself, anyone who honestly believes Overturn is a better horse well....
Report Mr Mischief January 24, 2014 1:54 AM GMT

Jan 23, 2014 -- 10:13PM, jasey wrote:


Well his record suggests otherwise


You must be mad or something. He's run there 3 times and only won 2 Champion Hurdles(placed in another).
You must be stone mad man

Report Mr Mischief January 24, 2014 2:00 AM GMT

Jan 23, 2014 -- 9:45PM, tomdeane wrote:


I completely agree with that barnesy. To me it's pretty clear that he hasn't shown his best form at Cheltenham.


Care to flesh that out a little, after all he only beats the same old horses back in Ireland.

Surely a horse, by definition, must show his best form to win a championship race, or is the Cheltenham Festival just a bit of craic after some other main event I, alas am evidently not privy to?

Report Eeternaloptimist January 24, 2014 11:36 AM GMT
Horses aren't machines and don't simply bend to the whims of owners or trainers. My view is that the course at Cheltenham or the travelling don't quite agree with The Fly and he isn't quite as good there as he is in Ireland. Which as I've said before simply proves how great the horse is.
Report shockster January 24, 2014 2:13 PM GMT
WILLIE MULLINS revealed on Friday that Hurricane Fly suffered a bruised foot during the week but will line-up for the BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle on Sunday, when he will attempt to win the Leopardstown event for the fourth consecutive year.

Mullins said: "Hurricane Fly gave us a scare during the week. One of his bits of work was well below what he usually shows us on the gallops. He disappointed me and his regular work rider Paul Townend and it transpired later that evening that he had bruised a foot.

"We discovered the bruise when we took him out for a walk. Our blacksmith removed the shoe and we poulticed the foot overnight.

"Hurricane Fly was fine the following morning and has been fine since. We're happy to let him line-up on Sunday and, hopefully, what happened during the week won't have a detrimental effect on his chance of winning the race and retaining his unbeaten record at Leopardstown."
Report cufcno1 January 24, 2014 3:06 PM GMT
Mullins getting excuses ready for when jezki turns the tables
Report Mooono January 24, 2014 5:16 PM GMT
Big Bucks 6/5 & Hurricane Fly 4/6ish this weekend!! treat them prices like they deserve to be treated! smash there back doors in!!!!!
Report CVByrne January 24, 2014 5:24 PM GMT
Think Lads are gonna go 6/4 Big Bucks I hear !!

Will have to back both in a double. Think this track and the sharper inner course the use on Sunday suits Fly more than any other.
Report Ballydoyle January 24, 2014 8:39 PM GMT
Ladbrokes?they will lay me 24.37 on that double CV....
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