Yep, totally agree....one man, barton bank, good old young hustler and even earth summit ran in it.

By all means stick to what has served you well. I just view things in my own way and it's very analytical. There is such limited data sets that trends are too wide a net for me to use. They're from an older era. The amount of data that is out there now is huge and most importantly the access to race replays.

We've got the RP via the iPad. We've twitter. We've In running odds data. We've downloadable official ratings in excel format. Horse trackers with notes sections.

What people try to approximate with trends I feel can be surpassed by individual Analysis.

But that as I've said is the approach I'm taking and developing. Meticulous record keeping. I'm still miles off where I want to be but progressing well.

I think people should always be looking to adapt. You'll be left behind if you stick to what's tried and trusted. It may be out of date soon. Who knows.

I think Faugheen, Hurricane Fly and Felix Yonger look mega strong and the first two are my biggest bets of the festival.

I I think Mullins could be on for a record setting . He has strong favourites in the majority of the grade 1 races.

Felix for the Arkle or JLT CV?

And how many horses have actually won the RSA after winning the Feltham?

He's in my ante post bets but wouldn't say he's really strong at all even on good ground. Think CV Byrne fancies Mullins to win every race bar the RSA

if he gets his ground should be in the Arkle!!

Bally,
CV likes Ballycasey for the RSA  as well,and hes right to.

Ballycasey,Vautour and Faugheen at this stage all look the best horses in their races,well to me they do.
So I see nowt wrong with backing accordingly.
Who cares who trains them???

Bally Felix is completely ground dependent, so his two 2nds on bad ground look some good runs in my opinion. On better ground he's soundly beaten Defy Logic & Trifolium and when he gets his ground he jumps like a cat.

I think the English novices are a sorry bunch by and large this season - with the exception of Nicholls. I also think Hendo's string are not in the best order, he's been very quiet this season something just doesn't sit right. Also where are his novices? Oscar Whisky is the only one even on the edge of the radar.

Mullins has two of the wealthiest owners in Ricci & Wiley arming his ranks both hungry for Gold Cup winners so we have seen a powerful string of novices come his way. The reason I fancy his a lot is mostly due to the complete lack of depth in the novice ranks.

Go look at the Neptune or Albert Bartlett you've 2 at a push 3 horses who you could say have a good chance, the rest are much of a muchness.

You've Red Sherlock as 2nd Fav in the Neptune, he's trained by Pipe who is atrocious at training Grade 1 horses, gets them beat constant at the festival. Not only that but the horse was all out to beat what was  Mullins 3rd string for the Albert Bartlett, Rathvinden who was giving him 3lbs and is a 20/1 shot.

I think if you went out and backed Champ Fever (4/1), Hurricane Fly (10/3), Quevega (10/11), Faugheen (7/2), Ballycasey (5/1), Black Hercules(8/1), Felix Yonger(10/1) & Briar Hill(5/1) now for whatever stake you'd come out with a handsome profit. He has a stunning string this season.


Just because you fancy a lot of Mullins horses doesn't mean that in some way means you'll go and lose money at the festival. My love of Mullins is getting on his lot in October, November, Decmber and sitting there in early March when they have become over bet and going off 6/4 and 13/8. Then people retrospectively going oh if you'd backed all Mullins at sp you'd have made x loss. When one of those 6/4 winners was 5/1 in Feb & 16/1 in November.

I think quite a few of those Mullins horses will halve in odds between now and their final sp. 

Just simply go through each race, one by one. First remove horses who will not run in it, next remove horses who won't win it, then look at whats left, look at what the book of those is priced to.


Actually, I'll do this for the Arkle now this evening and throw it up on my site. Sort of explain my thinking on antepost betting. Everyone has their own methods. I can only give my opinions here, I'm not saying anyone else is wrong etc.. it's all just opinions at this stage. They become facts in March

Yeah the trends aren't the be all and end all for me when I'm looking at a race, just something I pay consideration to. Like the sound of your approach - I'd love to spend more time looking at racing like that but my spare time seems to have disappeared somewhat with a nine month old son......! Good luck with it all though, sounds good.

For what it's worth I too think Felix Yonger on better ground would have a great chance in the Arkle, only doubt would be that those two runs on heavy going haven't been an ideal prep.

Does twitter really turn up much of use?!

CVB - I've had a hunch that Ruby knew the quality of the Mullins horses prior to quitting PN. I backed both CF and Faugheen with Bill's and NRFB with Victor in November. Backed Vautour with Fred after it's maiden win and Felix NRFB again with Victor. I have also done some multiple bets with the aforementioned and Briar Hill (for AB), and Avrika (for Rynnair).

At the moment I've got the odds and it appear all bar Avrika are going for the race I would like them to run in. But I'm not counting my chickens yet.

As you say one winner out of the first 4 mentioned will mean a nice profit.

Good punting to all.

Forty

Agree with CVB. Mullins could well do at Cheltenham what he's done for years at Punchestown, i.e. completely dominate. Do you think, therefore, CVB that Ruby at around 4/6 is a sound bet for champion jockey?

buddeliea 11 Feb 14 18:55 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 10,078 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Ballycasey,Vautour and Faugheen at this stage all look the best horses in their races,well to me they do.
So I see nowt wrong with backing accordingly.
Who cares who trains them???




Budde, that's 3 favourites. 3 horses, 3 races, and 3 favourites. Often the favourite does look the best horse hence their market position, but you can be pretty sure all 3 won't win. Or are you backing (backed) as singles?

Have backed Ballycasey early doors,and been fortunate to have a price.
Other 2 are involved in various covering multiples ,missed the prices on those.
It is possible that they are still value,but my sort of punting wont back them now.

Ladbr0kes briefly went 2/1 Walsh for top jockey earlier in the week, albeit to small stakes (max £25 I think).