Cheltenham Festival
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RSA - Morning Assembly
RSA - Morning Assembly
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I thought Cooldine had 3 chase runs before he contested the RSA? Unless he contests uncompetitive races, it's questionable whether Ballycasey has time for another 2 runs beforehand. Cheltenham is a very fair track but can be unforgiving to those lacking ability and/or experience.
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He did.had 3.
It's very much against the grain for a horse to win the RSA with less than 3 runs but Boston Bob had 2 when fell at the last when leading.However he still didn't win and that's the bottom line. Feel sometimes Mullins can fanny about too much and this might be another occasion of this happening. Some on here think he is God but I just go by the form book and certain stats.im on Ballycasey since November and have now looked elsewhere for alternatives. |
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There is still time (well, two months) for Ballycasey to get experience.
Morning Assembly might need it too. He looked a bit novicey when beaten by Carlingford Lough in the Topaz. But which races will they contest in March now that the JLT (last year's Jewson with a new sponsor) has been promoted to Grade One so there is a 2m4f option for the top novice chasers (though the RSA still has more prize money)? |
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Assembly could head straight to RSA
Trainer Pat Fahy will consider sending stable star Morning Assembly straight for the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival without another run. The Grade One-winning novice hurdler won his first two starts over fences, claiming the notable scalp of Don Cossack in the Florida Pearl Novice Chase at Punchestown. He was not disgraced when second behind Galway Plate hero Carlingford Lough in the Topaz Novice Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival and Fahy feels his jumping technique can be improved upon between now and the big meeting in March. Fahy said: "He's fine and has been having a bit of time out. He's just tipping away, having a relaxing time and enjoying himself. "We couldn't have been happier with his run at Christmas. Carlingford Lough is a good horse and a very experienced horse. "It was a horrible day and Ruby (Walsh) said to me afterwards it's hard to appreciate how intimidating it is for a young horse running into that wind. "For our horse to put it up to Carlingford Lough in those conditions, I was very pleased with him. "I think he'll probably go for the RSA Chase, assuming all goes well between now and then. Whether he has another run before that for more experience, I don't know. "He's a careful jumper, but there's nothing wrong with that. We can teach him to be a bit faster at his fences at home, we don't need to go racing. "It's not too difficult to teach them to be a bit quicker. It's more difficult if they are the other way." |
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Last 50 winners of this all ran in same calendar year...mistake if he doesn't give him one more outing
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i was thinking the same bally
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First Lieutenant went straight to the RSA and you could see how keen he was. Must have a prep,imo.
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well i certainly see why people like this horse at the current odds and how he has been campaigned, although i do believe him to be a soft ground horse, just my own opinion
i am just starting to have my doubts about the sire shantou, whose progeny appear to get to a certain level, then there form appears to level out and they don't seem to go on... anyone else noticing this about his sire or does this not concern people? or have they not noticed this trait about him or is it just myself?? we will have to see how this bares out with 2 leading players going to the festival, this fellow and briar hill but i have grave concerns myself about the progeny and how much they go forward in terms of improvement, i maybe wrong but will need evidence to prove me wrong so for that reason i won't be backing the said horses even with the obvious claims of both horses we will see |
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Harry which other horses have you seen this happen to?
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de valira reached some decent marks early career then not much more
our father reached 154 on debut then hasn't gone on super duty reached 152 before cheltenham then ran to that figure dylan ross regressive from a novice ballynagour we will still have to see with him briar hill reaching a level now 151 still to see whether he will improve much more but could argue he isn't really going on, improvement wise that is, but still time but we will see as the competition gets harder morning assembly has improved 5lbs from debut over fences and yes he should still improve as only had 3 starts but form says he isn't really improving at a rate you would like to see both have reached a level that is still good enough to be involved in any race they take in at cheltenham but will they improve enough to win there said targets |
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the sire says they won't
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Very interesting post HC. My take on the trainer's comments is that the Topaz may have bottomed him.....needs all the time available to let him down and build him back up for the RSA. Wasn't aware that Shantou may be dodgy but thanks for the heads up!
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Hopefully will run Leopardstown meeting in Feb, otherwise re bally stat calender year we are doomed!
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Cheers Harry good post and interesting.
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well festival, that isn't to say i am right, just a trait i am noticing with a lot of his stock...
have been in the game long enough to know, that it can bite you in the bum at any time and being as he sired a cheltenham winner last year, he certainly is breeding nice horses... my point is purely on how much they improve but he (shantou) is bound to have one sooner or later who will improve to a high level, probably morning assembly or briar hill just to put me straight but like i say, neither have to improve that much to get involved, so would be folly to discount there chances, just something to be aware of, and i certainly respect both horses as individuals, just hope they go on, rating wise for what it is worth i would be happy if both horses went there fresh if i fancied them...morning assembly and briar hill have both got good records off the back of absences and have the experience in the bag already this season but the 2 horses are by shantou and 2 high class novices too, so will be interested to see if i am right in my assessment of the sire as we stand and whether the said horses improve much more than they have so far there is no doubt, they should do |
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Assembly likely to skip Moriarty
Morning Assembly is likely to sidestep the Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown and head straight for the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March. Pat Fahy's Grade One-winning hurdler looked the part in winning his first two outings over fences and was far from disgraced when runner-up behind Galway Plate hero Carlingford Lough in the Topaz Novice Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival. The seven-year-old holds an entry on Hennessy Gold Cup day, but Fahy is keen to ensure his charge lines up at Prestbury Park in the best possible shape. The trainer said: "It has been a plan all the way through (the season) to aim for Cheltenham, everything has gone well so far and I think we'll stick to the plan. "He's got his experience and it's just a case of sticking to the routine now. We'll keep him nice and fresh and he won't be doing anything major. "Cheltenham isn't far away at all now. In another couple of weeks it will seem very close, so we'll just try and keep him sound and healthy. The RSA is his main target. We gave him an entry in the four-miler (National Hunt Chase), but that was just in case something cropped up." Ruby Walsh has been in the saddle on each of Morning Assembly's three chase starts, but is likely to be partnering one of Willie Mullins' formidable team in the RSA Chase, although Fahy is not giving up hope. "We'll hold out as much as we can for Ruby. You never know what might happen. We've managed to get him up to now and people didn't think we'd be able to," said the trainer. "If we can't get Ruby then there's Davy Russell and Davy Condon coming back. I don't think we'll be short of options." |
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This simply cannot win now without a prep. Holding a 16/1 voucher that would be as well be in the bin. Do trainers just not know the stat that most punters know???
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Yeah I'm on at 25/1 but not holding out much hope now he goes straight to the festival. I'd drop Pat Fahy an email and point it out if I could!! Obviously I know f**k all about training horses but it's a pretty damning statistic. Time for rupert and Grands Crus spring to mind as recent fancied runners in the RSA who went there without a prep and ran poorly.
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Rather trust the trainer myself.
Don't bother me at all to be honest,if hes happy. Each to their own though. |
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Yeah can see why I mean only 50 years since a horse won this without prepping in same calendar year and he got beat LTO by a nag that's 2/13 over fences. Miracle if it wins
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I've written a piece on the run in a calendar year stat. The one stat people throw up that makes me face palm. The sheer laziness of it is what does my head in.
I'll dig it out and post it up. Suffice to say that there isn't even a shred of statistical significance to it. |
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I would guess that 90% of RSA runners have run in that calender year.
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A lot of stats are nonsense. You've got to take each horse on its merit. Hurricane Fly "Montjeu's are no good." that year he was the top sire at Cheltenham.
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Take a guess how many horses in the past 12 years have run in the RSA and had not run since xmas festivals? ie the period 26th-31st Dec
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five
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I love stats and have backed this horse ante post.
Idealy i would like every horse i back 2 have a prep but if he is good enough then he will win regardless |
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It's actually 9
In 5 of the last 12 years every horse had run in calendar year. So there is only 7 years that had horses who fit the bill running in it Of those 9 horses, First Lieutenant came 2nd and Back in Front was in with every chance in 2006 before he unseated. Now if you take those 9 horses and their sp and work out the implied win % (ie 1/ decimal odds) then adjust for a 120% overround book we'll get the chances each horse had of winning based on betting We can then get 100% - their chances of winning = the chances they don't win. Now we can multiply those together to get the % chance that they all didn't win. It's 33% chance. Hardly a very unlikely event now is it!!! Now take into account First Lieutenant & Grands Crus were beaten by Bobs Worth, would the result have been different if it was Bobs going there Fresh and not the other tow?? |
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Also going back into the 90's and beyond it's very rare for a horse not to run in calendar year and if they didn't it was usually due to injury/setback and not trainers choice. Horses needed to race back then to get fit. Look at the modern era, nearly all Gold Cup horses don't run in calendar year after King George / Lexus. Training has changed, racecourse gallops are allowed, trainers have big gallops at home now too.
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Agree mate. Henderson was on last week saying they're much better off working the horses this close to Cheltenham on the all weather gallop rather than leave their race behind in these conditions
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SJ has a point in that some statistics are meaningless but where there is a justifiable reason behind a statistic I think the should at least be taken note of. In this instance I would say that the RSA is invariably a tough, gruelling race and there can be no substitute for the match practice of a recent run.
There's been some very well fancied horses turn up for this without a prep run and disappoint on the day, I'll certainly be siding with something that's had a recent outing. And if morning assembly proves me wrong and lands me a decent payout on my ante post bet I'll gladly admit I was wrong! |
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Which are these fancied horses that have turned up and disappointed? I guess I could give you Time For Rupert but he broke a blood vessel....
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Yeah time for rupert was one and whilst he did break a blood vessel if I recall correctly he was in the process of running a shocker before that became an issue. Grand Crus another....
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I suspect there is a correlation between the absence of RSA winners for 50 years who were without a run in the calendar year and a lack of experience. There are plenty of examples of older horses that don't run from Christmas onwards and win or do very well in March. But these tend to be more experienced horses who don't get too geed up from a three month break and who have enough experience at jumping not to suffer from a lack of match practice.
Having said all of that I believe Morning Assembly is essentially a good jumper so may prove an exception to the rule. The real questions are, of course, is he good enough or does he find one too good on the day. Personally, I hope not as I'm a big Ballycasey fan. However, on another level it would be nice to see a small trainer win at the Festival. |
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Including Lord Windermere, 4 out of the last 5 winners haven't won another race since.
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TFR missed the Argento with a setback and hadn't run since early December. He does not fit the "plan was to go straight there" ala say First Lieutenant.
As for the recent race practice. Why would the RSA be different to the Arkle in that respect? Simonsig & Sizing Europe won the Arkle off a break. The difference is due to just a random stat, like Henderson has never trained a Neptune winner (until Simonsig) there will always be random stats in the game. Montjeu never had a Cheltenham winner and you have people writing long pieces about why this has happened. A simple look at the dung horses who he had sired who had attempted to win at the festival showed that stat had no bearing on Hurricane Flys chances, it was just a random stat. No horse has regained a Gold Cup, no horse since Comedy of Errors has regained the Champion Hurdle. and so on and so on. Meritless stats, racing is the mecca of pointless stats. Worry about a horses talent and less about these stats, it'll serve you well. |
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If Morning Assembly wins don't get me wrong I will be a happy camper at 16/1.
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duffy 10 Feb 14 22:38 Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 12,010 | Blogger: duffy's blog
Including Lord Windermere, 4 out of the last 5 winners haven't won another race since. 2 of the last 7 winners won the next years Hennessy and Gold Cup. While another won 2 Ryanairs and a Mellins Chase. The race sure bottomed them  Also Weapons Amnesty essentially never raced again so including him in a stat is a bit misleading. I don't get these throw away stats or why people love to throw them around so much  |
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6 out of the last 6 posts on this thread by CVByrne have been very interesting and enlightening.....he's hit a 100% strike rate today !
Good stuff |
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2 of the last 7 winners won the next years Hennessy and Gold Cup. While another won 2 Ryanairs and a Mellins Chase. The race sure bottomed them
That is precisely what makes the fact that a few other recent winners winning nothing at all so strange. |
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Cooldine had problems the next season and beyond yet still managed a 1/2l 2nd in the Irish Hennessy.
Weapons Amnesty got injured after the RSA and never raced again. Injury happens. Lord Windermere hasn't won a race because he's contested 2 grade 1's and the Hennessy. Also his form is down to all his trainers horses running well below themselves all season. I do believe the very hard gruelling season had a permanent effect on Bostons Angel though, not specifically the RSA. That's my take on those horses really. |