Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Morning Assembly – I’m amazed this horse is still available at 16/1 for the RSA as he looks every inch an RSA horse. His sire Shantou has sired many strong stayers like De Valira, Super Duty, Our Father, Sword of Destiny and likely Albert Bartlett horse Briar Hill. The horse handles any ground and it’s more the stamina sapping nature of testing ground which suites him rather than a need to dig his toe in.
He’ll get a stamina test in the RSA and looks one who will relish the climb up the hill. He was 2nd in the Topaz Nov Chase at Leopardstown to a seasoned horse in Carlingford Lough. But as Weapons Amnesty showed a few years back coming 2nd in the race is no barrier to victory in the RSA. He’s an improving horse and has only had 9 starts under rules, he is also the perfect age for this race at 7yo with the last 7 winners of the race being that age. All 7 of those were also Irish Bred chasers, a group which dominate this race.
There is no real stand out opposition that I can see. I can easily see Morning Assembly reversing form with Carlingford Lough on better ground and I’m not 100% sure that horse will line up in the RSA. Smad Place’s market position is beyond baffling, he’s managed to fall and then win at 4/11 yet is 2nd fav!!? Champagne Fever is very unlikely to run. Don Cossack was defeated by Morning Assembly when they met and his trainer has questioned if 3 miles is the right trip for him. I’d expect Wonderful Charm to go for the Jewson as Nicholls said he’ll go straight to Cheltenham now. Le Bec is admirable and a good stayer and not without his chances.
The only rival I do fear is Ballycasey, on breeding he is a 3 miler who will enjoy good ground and I was impressed with how he won over a shorter trip on his debut. But he was a non runner at Christmas in the Topaz and missed Cheltenham last year. So I’d wait until he’s declared to run in another race before I’d take the 10/1 on offer for him. I can see him taking in a race this month before going for the Dr PJ at Leopardstown next month on the way to Cheltenham. In which case he’d command lots of respect.But as it stands now, there is no more solid bet for this, and no horse fits the mould better than Morning Assembly.
2pts win Morning Assembly 16/1
He’ll get a stamina test in the RSA and looks one who will relish the climb up the hill. He was 2nd in the Topaz Nov Chase at Leopardstown to a seasoned horse in Carlingford Lough. But as Weapons Amnesty showed a few years back coming 2nd in the race is no barrier to victory in the RSA. He’s an improving horse and has only had 9 starts under rules, he is also the perfect age for this race at 7yo with the last 7 winners of the race being that age. All 7 of those were also Irish Bred chasers, a group which dominate this race.
There is no real stand out opposition that I can see. I can easily see Morning Assembly reversing form with Carlingford Lough on better ground and I’m not 100% sure that horse will line up in the RSA. Smad Place’s market position is beyond baffling, he’s managed to fall and then win at 4/11 yet is 2nd fav!!? Champagne Fever is very unlikely to run. Don Cossack was defeated by Morning Assembly when they met and his trainer has questioned if 3 miles is the right trip for him. I’d expect Wonderful Charm to go for the Jewson as Nicholls said he’ll go straight to Cheltenham now. Le Bec is admirable and a good stayer and not without his chances.
The only rival I do fear is Ballycasey, on breeding he is a 3 miler who will enjoy good ground and I was impressed with how he won over a shorter trip on his debut. But he was a non runner at Christmas in the Topaz and missed Cheltenham last year. So I’d wait until he’s declared to run in another race before I’d take the 10/1 on offer for him. I can see him taking in a race this month before going for the Dr PJ at Leopardstown next month on the way to Cheltenham. In which case he’d command lots of respect.But as it stands now, there is no more solid bet for this, and no horse fits the mould better than Morning Assembly.
2pts win Morning Assembly 16/1
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 109
|
By:
I totally agree. There my 2 against the field and both look value as we speak. that said I was disappointed with MA over xmas but can still see him going close at the festival.
|
|
By:
Indeed, he ticks every box for me. I have had my biggest ever anti-post wager on this horse, I took the the 14/1 before his last race, as I thought he'd shorten, it wasn't a bad run and also surprised he was pushed out to 16/1.
|
|
By:
Enjoying your write ups CV.
Do not always agree but always very well written and argued. |
|
By:
Agree with everything CV.
Defo think the winner of this race comes from Ireland this year |
|
By:
Yep, think Ruby should of made more of him last time. Totally agree on the stamina test
|
|
By:
great write up again cv
|
|
By:
Is he due to take in the Moriarty? Agree he's got the most solid profile, only nagging doubt being that ruby won't be on board. Also for the love of god can't see why Don Cossack wouldn't be aimed at the RSA - seems a 3 miler to me
|
|
By:
Think the plan was to go straight there after the Topaz, but they may go for the Moriarty now. Fahey said he'd discuss with the owner. So plans still open I'd assume.
Personally I'd like him to go for the Moriarty, timings wise it fits in nicely. |
|
By:
Thinking about backing him but may have to wait for confirmation on plans. Couldn't consider backing him if not having a festival prep, which would be a shame as he stacks up in all other areas
|
|
By:
Have both Balleycasey nrfb and Morning Assembly nrfb and more than happy to go with those 2 on the day.
Also backed Sam Winner after I saw him at Cheltenham in December,but a tad concerned he may end up in the 4 miler. Was impressed with him that day and really hope he gives me an extra one on my side. Uxizandre is one I backed ages ago at big prices on here,but a tad concerned for him with the stables problems. Decent horse though and darn good jumper. Be nice to see him out fairly soon. |
|
By:
This horse definitely has a chance no doubt and I'm very tempted to go in because I've got Ballycasey only at the moment and wondering whether he will show.
Is there a reason Walsh has been on all season? Does Walsh know something we don't regarding Ballycasey? He may get tapped for toe next month at Leopardstown but saw that with Lord Windermere and he did the business a month later. I like my RSA horse to run in that race personally. |
|
By:
If youre a Morning Assembly man surely you would fear Don Cossack as well given that there is only half a length between them on their meeting?
|
|
By:
Not sure he turns up for the RSA Bally
|
|
By:
Although having just re-watched that race it looks as if Don Cossack will struggle to get home in an RSA. Jewson horse?
|
|
By:
Yeah he's got a entry in that. Entered up in the Irish Arkle this month
|
|
By:
Who? Don Cossack?
|
|
By:
Yeah mate
|
|
By:
They also then seemingly think he isn't an RSA horse. Given that Ballycasey ran over 2m 1f earlier in season and Walsh has been on Morning Assembly all season perhaps he doesn't think Ballycasey is an RSA horse?
|
|
By:
 |
|
By:
Whats funny?
|
|
By:
Which race would you see Ballycasey in if not the RSA?
|
|
By:
None. He might not turn up. Hope he does cos I'm on at 10-1 NRNB but he's only ran once. Not ideal is it?
|
|
By:
No it wouldn't be, hopefully still time for another two in Jan/Feb. The nrnb might come in v handy to keep the option of laying off nearer the time too.
|
|
By:
Ruby only got the ride on Morning Assembly due to injury to Condon, then he kept the ride as he was free in the next two races. I'm sure he'll ride Ballycasey in RSA. But there will surely be some good riders free to take the ride. I'd like Davy Russell to ride. But he's not a tricky ride or anything so not too worried.
|
|
By:
Morning Assembly for me also. Managed to get on at 33/1 a few months back. Was quite surprised with his defeat lto but I would think he'll improve for better ground come March.
|
|
By:
CV...you've talked me into a cheeky punt on Morning Assembly at 16-1
 |
|
By:
To be honest, Ballycasey being fav is a joke - and I'm on him at 36.0 on here and 33/1 SJ!! On what has been achieved so far, morning assembly should be fav in my book
|
|
By:
Anybody got any information/thoughts on another one of Fahy's - Western Boy? I was taken by its maiden win and it is entered in a grade 2 at the weekend. Could get a decent price against a Mullins hotpot which has been well backed for the supreme. Im also on MA by the way; thought it was very tenderly handled LTO.
|
|
By:
Another I'm looking forward to seeing again is Sizing Gold. Is he a soft ground horse though??
|
|
By:
MA strikes me as an ideal type for Sun Alliance alright, though he would be an absolute certainty for the 4 miler. I am not suggesting he too slow for SA, just not many or any of his class will line up in the longer race, and be assured of staying.
I have Ballcasey backed at 25s, so am hoping to see him out by the end of the month. Agreed he doesn't have any chase form of note, but he has always looked made for the game. I don't think he would want a stamina sapping test at 3m, but by Wednesday at Chelt, the ground is invariably good. Like the Arkle, there is very little strength in depth, so like many others on here, I am going to add MA. On the subject of the Arkle, I still think Champagne will go that route. The Jewson looks a better class of event, the Arkle is very poor, and once Ruby can see off any potential 'Golden Freezes', I don't think he will be beaten. |
|
By:
De Valira never raced beyond 20f.
|
|
By:
As far as I am aware, WPM does not have a great record in the Topaz, so he either did not run Ballycasey there because he does not like to give his novice chasers a hard race over 3 miles before the festival on soft ground, or the horse has met with a set-back.
I have Wonderful Charm backed for the Jewson at double figs so hope he goes there as he'd take all the beating. Le Bec looked well over priced at 20/1 after his second to Sam Winner conceding 8lb. He is RSA bound and has put together 3 top chase efforts back-to-back. Trainer thinks he has a live chance. 16/1 still very fair imo. I wouldn't rule out Many Clouds at a big price too. You won't see a better novice chaser jumps fences like he does this season. |
|
By:
I think Cooldine ran in the Topaz sint and didn't win but came back to land the RSA. I've backed Ballycasey but am increasingly concerned by his non-appearance. One run in an egg and spoon race over fences thus far is no sort of preparation for this challenge. He missed the Festival last year and might just be a bit fragile.
|
|
By:
Look at his price on here - Ballycasey hasn't suffered a at back otherwise he'd have drifted. Prob didn't run in the topaz partly due to what happened to CF when pitched straight into G1 company
|
|
By:
I think mullie is just being conservative with ballycasey, why run a horse that needs goodish ground on very soft/heavy winter ground.... makes no sense to me.... im sure we,ll see him out soon.
|
|
By:
Sint, 11 years the Topaz has been a Grade 1 novice Chase.
WPM has sent out 7 horses. 4 unplaced, 2 placed and the one winner. Back In Focus. |
|
By:
Ok cheers Brandy. A fair record then with a win and 2 places from 7 runners. Makes you wonder why Ballycasey did not run. Has to have been the ground.
|
|
By:
Cooldine ran over 2m at Leopardstown the season he won the RSA, then won the Dr PJ before he won the RSA. Mullins often runs his stayers over shorter trips in Ireland before stepping up in trip at the Festival. Helps them learn to jump at pace.
|
|
By:
Cooldine
 |