Cheltenham Festival
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
This weekend I dusted off the old spreadsheet from the 2013 Festival, and created a template for 2014, clearing out the old data, and readying it for the 'data onslaught' from early 2014 onwards. Brought back some great memories from March.
Thanks in advance to Racecaller, whose trends I rely upon greatly for much of my analysis.
Coming soon, at a spreadsheet near you..........................
Thanks in advance to Racecaller, whose trends I rely upon greatly for much of my analysis.
Coming soon, at a spreadsheet near you..........................
Show More
Ryanair Chase
With riding plans somewhat up in the air, here are the latest trend ratings for the Ryanair Chase:
Benefficient76 94%
Al Ferof33 92%
Cue Card77 91%
First Lieutenant32 78%
Dynaste77 78%
Captain Conan96 77%
Mount Benbulben19 76%
Riverside Theatre26 76%
Last Instalment32 70%
Menorah77 69%
Wishfull Thinking47 69%
Cloudy Too26 61%
Arvika Ligeonniere39 61%
Tatenen40 59%
Champion Court47 58%
Rajdhani Express117 55%
Boston Bob47 54%
Medermit26 54%
Module33 54%
Sizing Europe76 53%
Hidden Cyclone54 52%
Alderwood136 52%
Kid Cassidy76 46%
Lyreen Legend32 46%
Kauto Stone26 44%
Roi Du Mee19 44%
Rathlin39 44%
Hunt Ball26 43%
Time For Rupert22 43%
Cantlow89 42%
Baily Green32 37%
Twinlight18 37%
Rolling Aces26 36%
Toner D´Oudairies18 36%
Theatre Guide90 34%
Prince De Beauchene56 29%
Rubi Light21 26%
Fago19 19%
Rupert Lamb66 18%
The two top rated horses Benefficient and Al Ferof well ahead of the chasing pack, given Cue Card's absence.
With riding plans somewhat up in the air, here are the latest trend ratings for the Ryanair Chase:
Benefficient76 94%
Al Ferof33 92%
Cue Card77 91%
First Lieutenant32 78%
Dynaste77 78%
Captain Conan96 77%
Mount Benbulben19 76%
Riverside Theatre26 76%
Last Instalment32 70%
Menorah77 69%
Wishfull Thinking47 69%
Cloudy Too26 61%
Arvika Ligeonniere39 61%
Tatenen40 59%
Champion Court47 58%
Rajdhani Express117 55%
Boston Bob47 54%
Medermit26 54%
Module33 54%
Sizing Europe76 53%
Hidden Cyclone54 52%
Alderwood136 52%
Kid Cassidy76 46%
Lyreen Legend32 46%
Kauto Stone26 44%
Roi Du Mee19 44%
Rathlin39 44%
Hunt Ball26 43%
Time For Rupert22 43%
Cantlow89 42%
Baily Green32 37%
Twinlight18 37%
Rolling Aces26 36%
Toner D´Oudairies18 36%
Theatre Guide90 34%
Prince De Beauchene56 29%
Rubi Light21 26%
Fago19 19%
Rupert Lamb66 18%
The two top rated horses Benefficient and Al Ferof well ahead of the chasing pack, given Cue Card's absence.
In terms of what's stopping the above two from being 100% horses, Benefficient didn't run in the King George and Al Ferof didn't post a sufficiently high RPR last time out. That said, my slight current preference would be for Benefficient.
Hi JOCI,
Really enjoying your work.
My best results in winning years the last 3 Festivals have been in hurdle races, particularly handicap hurdles.
How successful was last years handicap hurdle selections?
When will you be producing the ratings for them this week? - as the 5-day decs come through and shrink the fields to a manageable size?
Really enjoying your work.
My best results in winning years the last 3 Festivals have been in hurdle races, particularly handicap hurdles.
How successful was last years handicap hurdle selections?
When will you be producing the ratings for them this week? - as the 5-day decs come through and shrink the fields to a manageable size?
Yes, once the fields have narrowed down. Will check last year's results regarding the handicap hurdles now.
Medinas ended up joint top rated on 90% in the Coral Cup last year and won at 33/1 (I managed to get 42/1 on the Tote I think).
Nothing then in the other handicap hurdles until Day 4, when the final ratings pinpointed / shortlisted Ted Veale in the County Hurdle, who won at around 10/1.
So two handicap hurdle winners at decent prices (but I did back a few of the top rated in each of those races).
My other biggest winner was Golden Chieftain, who came in at a big price off bottom weight. Particularly enjoyed Champagne Fever winning the opener at a very tasty price for me.
Nothing then in the other handicap hurdles until Day 4, when the final ratings pinpointed / shortlisted Ted Veale in the County Hurdle, who won at around 10/1.
So two handicap hurdle winners at decent prices (but I did back a few of the top rated in each of those races).
My other biggest winner was Golden Chieftain, who came in at a big price off bottom weight. Particularly enjoyed Champagne Fever winning the opener at a very tasty price for me.
I bet you were shouting it when my tent was attacking joci
Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase
Still a field of around 50 to get to grips with, but here is what the trends say so far, with just the likely SP trend factor to be added:
Sraid Padraig101 90%
Time For Rupert20 86%
Buddy Bolero17 83%
Indian Castle45 82%
Hadrian´s Approach83 81%
Vintage Star52 79%
Cantlow87 78%
Goulanes73 75%
Holywell20 74%
Tour Des Champs17 74%
Muldoon´s Picnic63 73%
Sydney Paget52 73%
King Massini83 71%
Annacotty45 70%
Restless Harry24 70%
Our Father24 68%
Green Flag38 67%
Top Of The Range20 67%
Saint Are108 67%
Twirling Magnet129 67%
Alfie Sherrin108 67%
Victrix Gale74 67%
Spring Heeled74 66%
Wrong Turn44 64%
Soll24 63%
Solix45 61%
Vesper Bell47 61%
Shakalakaboomboom20 60%
Tap Night45 57%
Ma Filleule74 57%
Dursey Sound14 57%
Rigadin De Beauchene24 56%
Ackertac69 56%
The Package364 55%
Standing Ovation17 55%
Make A Track17 53%
Living Next Door45 53%
Golden Chieftain24 53%
Hunt Ball24 52%
Toner D´Oudairies16 52%
Tullamore Dew24 51%
Cause Of Causes74 50%
Wetak24 49%
Aachen20 48%
Vino Griego31 48%
Fruity O´Rooney20 48%
Relax17 43%
Fine Parchment38 41%
Renard45 36%
Pacha Du Polder296 35%
One to revisit closer to the time.
Still a field of around 50 to get to grips with, but here is what the trends say so far, with just the likely SP trend factor to be added:
Sraid Padraig101 90%
Time For Rupert20 86%
Buddy Bolero17 83%
Indian Castle45 82%
Hadrian´s Approach83 81%
Vintage Star52 79%
Cantlow87 78%
Goulanes73 75%
Holywell20 74%
Tour Des Champs17 74%
Muldoon´s Picnic63 73%
Sydney Paget52 73%
King Massini83 71%
Annacotty45 70%
Restless Harry24 70%
Our Father24 68%
Green Flag38 67%
Top Of The Range20 67%
Saint Are108 67%
Twirling Magnet129 67%
Alfie Sherrin108 67%
Victrix Gale74 67%
Spring Heeled74 66%
Wrong Turn44 64%
Soll24 63%
Solix45 61%
Vesper Bell47 61%
Shakalakaboomboom20 60%
Tap Night45 57%
Ma Filleule74 57%
Dursey Sound14 57%
Rigadin De Beauchene24 56%
Ackertac69 56%
The Package364 55%
Standing Ovation17 55%
Make A Track17 53%
Living Next Door45 53%
Golden Chieftain24 53%
Hunt Ball24 52%
Toner D´Oudairies16 52%
Tullamore Dew24 51%
Cause Of Causes74 50%
Wetak24 49%
Aachen20 48%
Vino Griego31 48%
Fruity O´Rooney20 48%
Relax17 43%
Fine Parchment38 41%
Renard45 36%
Pacha Du Polder296 35%
One to revisit closer to the time.
13 winners last year - my best ever haul, some at big prices. Fully understand this could be a 'one-off'. Did bet more than one horse in many of the races.
Time for Rupert?! 
**** me, I didn't even relise it was still in training. The day that thing wins any race at the festival, even the charity race will be the day hell freezes over.
**** me, I didn't even relise it was still in training. The day that thing wins any race at the festival, even the charity race will be the day hell freezes over.
JOCI, as usual a really excellent number of comments and some very good thoughts/analysis, very similar to you I have never had such a good Cheltenham as last year, I remember having backed Champagne for the Supreme at 16's for a nice few quid and having big, big lumps on My Tent at 14's reading your Supreme analysis and saying to myself how right you were I carried on lumping on Champagne,I even got some 18's I think- all of which was very risky because everyone else was telling me he was not going to run in the Supreme. I spent the Tuesday morning laying off both horses to recover my stakes plus, plus and then the race. I walked up to the local Ladbrokes and paced around waiting for the off, one out I was screaming and I mean screaming everyone in the Rainham shop was aghast at my behaviour, the funny thing was I was cheering MY Tent as he took up the lead, only to shout even louder when Champagne came back, what an afternoon. I watched the Champion Hurdle telling everyone that my 'mate' Joci reckoned Hurricane was a good thing, they all tanked on. By the time Hurricane got over the line I needed to lie down, I was that exhausted, I was actually drunk on the sheer emotion of the day and I have never one so much money in my life- what a lovely memory.
Back to this year as per usual I have spent many hours studying, for me it is the hurdle races that I focus upon, Supreme, Champion, Neptune, Albert Bartlett and World Hurdle- yet this year I am really struggling so any would really be helpful. I always think that get off to a good start you are flying.....
Joci thanks again and I will look forward to hearing your views on the Supreme and Neptune.
Ginger
Back to this year as per usual I have spent many hours studying, for me it is the hurdle races that I focus upon, Supreme, Champion, Neptune, Albert Bartlett and World Hurdle- yet this year I am really struggling so any would really be helpful. I always think that get off to a good start you are flying.....
Joci thanks again and I will look forward to hearing your views on the Supreme and Neptune.
Ginger
Yep, great story that. I suppose we've all got those memories but they're nearly always few and far between. I suppose that's what make them 'great memories'
Here's to a few more !
Here's to a few more !
Great to hear Ginger. Let's hope we get a bit of good fortune again this year!
JOCI a great thread this one and stories like Ginger's just add to it.
I had a look at the Festival Handicap last night from a Stats and form perspective. I came up with Sraid Padraig and I've taken the 20/1 NRNB. Also some 40/1 on Betfair - that price suggests he may be 50/50 to run. Interestingly my other 2 fancies are Time for Rupert and Buddy Bolero who are the others in your top 3 at present. Time will tell eh!!
I had a look at the Festival Handicap last night from a Stats and form perspective. I came up with Sraid Padraig and I've taken the 20/1 NRNB. Also some 40/1 on Betfair - that price suggests he may be 50/50 to run. Interestingly my other 2 fancies are Time for Rupert and Buddy Bolero who are the others in your top 3 at present. Time will tell eh!!
i'll echo what many have said here joci ..very generous , impressive stuff. if you are anything like accurate i expect to have my bets restricted due to 'joci -wise '...good luck.
Another few hours of study awaits now back from work. One more day tomorrow, then off for the week, travelling down on Monday. Will be taking laptop though, to finish off the other races when down there.
Joci, out of interest, do you count winning a PTP as having won over 3m? I have sraid padraig 7th at the moment as i only count a 3m win if it's under rules. King Massini is top for me along with muldoons picnic and vintage star. Do like time for Rupert though
Tory - that's a good point, and it's one area where I can be a little bit inconsistent. I can fluctuate from time to time in terms of how a view PTP races. I can certainly understand how you might want to discount PTP form on occasions like this, and in some races I do. Others I don't, can't really be much more specific or give a good reason for it. So, if you don't value the form of a PTP win over 3 miles, Sraid Padraig would rate lower.
Neptune Novices Hurdle
Rankings at the latest declaration sage would be:
Briar Hill66 90%
Faugheen74 90%
Red Sherlock46 79%
Deputy Dan60 79%
Rathvinden46 79%
Royal Boy60 78%
Un Temps Pour Tout25 70%
Vautour31 69%
Captain Cutter74 68%
Cole Harden25 61%
Creepy46 61%
Royal Regatta70 61%
Sure Reef45 60%
Knock House53 52%
Shanahan´s Turn73 52%
Fennell Bay28 51%
Madness Light46 51%
Valseur Lido81 51%
Lieutenant Colonel38 49%
Ballyalton70 49%
Midnight Thunder14 41%
Pleasant Company19 41%
Twelve Roses76 41%
Lac Fontana46 40%
Renneti75 40%
Sky Khan20F 40%
Killala Quay60 39%
Cup Final18 32%
Cocktails At Dawn89 22%
It appears to be between the top two.
Rankings at the latest declaration sage would be:
Briar Hill66 90%
Faugheen74 90%
Red Sherlock46 79%
Deputy Dan60 79%
Rathvinden46 79%
Royal Boy60 78%
Un Temps Pour Tout25 70%
Vautour31 69%
Captain Cutter74 68%
Cole Harden25 61%
Creepy46 61%
Royal Regatta70 61%
Sure Reef45 60%
Knock House53 52%
Shanahan´s Turn73 52%
Fennell Bay28 51%
Madness Light46 51%
Valseur Lido81 51%
Lieutenant Colonel38 49%
Ballyalton70 49%
Midnight Thunder14 41%
Pleasant Company19 41%
Twelve Roses76 41%
Lac Fontana46 40%
Renneti75 40%
Sky Khan20F 40%
Killala Quay60 39%
Cup Final18 32%
Cocktails At Dawn89 22%
It appears to be between the top two.
Thanks Joci - that's the beauty of stats, it's how you interpret them. Got my fingers badly burned 2yrs back by counting Boston Bob' s PTP as a win over 3m in the AB, when the stats if you took that away screamed Brindisi breeze (R.I.P). Ever since then I've only counted a 3m win if over hurdles or fences in rules
Neptune Novices Hurdle
Rankings at the latest declaration sage would be:
Briar Hill66 90%
Faugheen74 90%
Red Sherlock46 79%
Deputy Dan60 79%
Rathvinden46 79%
Royal Boy60 78%
Un Temps Pour Tout25 70%
Vautour31 69%
Captain Cutter74 68%
Cole Harden25 61%
Creepy46 61%
Royal Regatta70 61%
Sure Reef45 60%
Knock House53 52%
Shanahan´s Turn73 52%
Fennell Bay28 51%
Madness Light46 51%
Valseur Lido81 51%
Lieutenant Colonel38 49%
Ballyalton70 49%
Midnight Thunder14 41%
Pleasant Company19 41%
Twelve Roses76 41%
Lac Fontana46 40%
Renneti75 40%
Sky Khan20F 40%
Killala Quay60 39%
Cup Final18 32%
Cocktails At Dawn89 22%
It appears to be between the top two. Betting does suggest Briar Hill will be running elsewhere.
Rankings at the latest declaration sage would be:
Briar Hill66 90%
Faugheen74 90%
Red Sherlock46 79%
Deputy Dan60 79%
Rathvinden46 79%
Royal Boy60 78%
Un Temps Pour Tout25 70%
Vautour31 69%
Captain Cutter74 68%
Cole Harden25 61%
Creepy46 61%
Royal Regatta70 61%
Sure Reef45 60%
Knock House53 52%
Shanahan´s Turn73 52%
Fennell Bay28 51%
Madness Light46 51%
Valseur Lido81 51%
Lieutenant Colonel38 49%
Ballyalton70 49%
Midnight Thunder14 41%
Pleasant Company19 41%
Twelve Roses76 41%
Lac Fontana46 40%
Renneti75 40%
Sky Khan20F 40%
Killala Quay60 39%
Cup Final18 32%
Cocktails At Dawn89 22%
It appears to be between the top two. Betting does suggest Briar Hill will be running elsewhere.
Evening Joci great stuff , just 1 question and sorry for my ignorance , you gave rankings for a race I cant find the one where Sraid Padraig is top in your rankings , does it have another name , any help appreciated ta 
Good man Soul Dancer cheers will have a more in depth look now
That's the race Ive already backed Holywell in and Golden Chieftain who won for me last year at Cheltenham , ah well you pay your dough you take your chance , will keep an eye out for Sraid Padraig now though as well
Good luck! Holywell for me was interesting for the 4 miler...comes out close to top rated.
Evening Joci , I just like Holywell and Im sure he has won at Cheltenham before which is always a huge plus imho . So whatever race he goes for I will back him , backed him in NRNB anyway for the race Im talking about and also in 4 miler again NRNB . Will defo top up one race is known , great work fella really enjoy reading your work and best of luck this year again
JLT Novices Chase
Revised rankings at the latest declaration stage. Still not entirely certain about running plans.
Don Cossack32 81%
Felix Yonger46 81%
Taquin Du Seuil54 81%
Ballycasey32 72%
Bright New Dawn25 72%
Wonderful Charm90 72%
Sizing Gold54 66%
Oscar Whisky40 63%
Djakadam47 63%
Balnaslow49 56%
Champagne Fever77 56%
Mozoltov18 53%
Caid Du Berlais47 47%
Art Of Logistics77 38%
Double Ross47 28%
Rock On Ruby35 28%
Uxizandre20 28%
Colour Squadron89 19%
Off The Ground89 19%
Captain Ocana25 9%
Vukovar75 9%
Revised rankings at the latest declaration stage. Still not entirely certain about running plans.
Don Cossack32 81%
Felix Yonger46 81%
Taquin Du Seuil54 81%
Ballycasey32 72%
Bright New Dawn25 72%
Wonderful Charm90 72%
Sizing Gold54 66%
Oscar Whisky40 63%
Djakadam47 63%
Balnaslow49 56%
Champagne Fever77 56%
Mozoltov18 53%
Caid Du Berlais47 47%
Art Of Logistics77 38%
Double Ross47 28%
Rock On Ruby35 28%
Uxizandre20 28%
Colour Squadron89 19%
Off The Ground89 19%
Captain Ocana25 9%
Vukovar75 9%
Ryanair Chase
Latest ratings now the field has been whittled down:
Benefficient76 94%
Al Ferof33 92%
First Lieutenant32 78%
Dynaste77 78%
Last Instalment32 70%
Menorah77 69%
Wishfull Thinking47 69%
Arvika Ligeonniere39 61%
Tatenen40 59%
Champion Court47 58%
Rajdhani Express117 55%
Boston Bob47 54%
Medermit26 54%
Module33 54%
Hidden Cyclone54 52%
Kid Cassidy76 46%
Kauto Stone26 44%
Rathlin39 44%
Hunt Ball26 43%
Cantlow89 42%
Prince De Beauchene56 29%
I'm feeling the love for Benefficent in the Ryanair. Al Ferof could be a big danger if back to bets, but will he be?
Latest ratings now the field has been whittled down:
Benefficient76 94%
Al Ferof33 92%
First Lieutenant32 78%
Dynaste77 78%
Last Instalment32 70%
Menorah77 69%
Wishfull Thinking47 69%
Arvika Ligeonniere39 61%
Tatenen40 59%
Champion Court47 58%
Rajdhani Express117 55%
Boston Bob47 54%
Medermit26 54%
Module33 54%
Hidden Cyclone54 52%
Kid Cassidy76 46%
Kauto Stone26 44%
Rathlin39 44%
Hunt Ball26 43%
Cantlow89 42%
Prince De Beauchene56 29%
I'm feeling the love for Benefficent in the Ryanair. Al Ferof could be a big danger if back to bets, but will he be?
World Hurdle
Think I will be swerving everyone's favourite, Annie Power. Would need evidence of her staying ability to be able to part with my hard earned against the likes of the legendary Big Buck's and proven stayer At Fishers Cross.
At Fishers Cross47 63%
Big Buck´s47 63%
Rule The World54 58%
Reve De Sivola47 57%
Celestial Halo26 54%
Annie Power47 53%
Medinas103 46%
Mala Beach49 45%
Thousand Stars74 42%
Boston Bob47 41%
More Of That89 40%
Quevega322 40%
Mickie26 37%
Salubrious82 37%
Trustan Times54 37%
Big Buck's could be the one where everyone is saying 'how could I have been so stupid' if he romps home. Either that or I'll be the one in the stand with his head in his hands as Annie Power strolls home on the bridle.
Think I will be swerving everyone's favourite, Annie Power. Would need evidence of her staying ability to be able to part with my hard earned against the likes of the legendary Big Buck's and proven stayer At Fishers Cross.
At Fishers Cross47 63%
Big Buck´s47 63%
Rule The World54 58%
Reve De Sivola47 57%
Celestial Halo26 54%
Annie Power47 53%
Medinas103 46%
Mala Beach49 45%
Thousand Stars74 42%
Boston Bob47 41%
More Of That89 40%
Quevega322 40%
Mickie26 37%
Salubrious82 37%
Trustan Times54 37%
Big Buck's could be the one where everyone is saying 'how could I have been so stupid' if he romps home. Either that or I'll be the one in the stand with his head in his hands as Annie Power strolls home on the bridle.
Joined:
05 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 27 | Blogger: Kingchip's blog
Hi JOCI,
Great work again - no 100% selections yet?
Many Clouds (RSA) so far!
On at 20s. Will top up for the place too.
05 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 27 | Blogger: Kingchip's blog
Hi JOCI,
Great work again - no 100% selections yet?
Many Clouds (RSA) so far!
On at 20s. Will top up for the place too.
Hopefully the Coral Cup ratings are soon to be revealed Joci - stop your slacking
Sorry gents, might have been a bit trigger happy with the delete function in Excel....will get back on it!
World Hurdle
With Zarkandar reinstated:
At Fishers Cross47 63%
Big Buck´s47 63%
Rule The World54 58%
Reve De Sivola47 57%
Celestial Halo26 54%
Annie Power47 53%
Zarkandar26 50%
Medinas103 46%
Mala Beach49 45%
Thousand Stars74 42%
Boston Bob47 41%
More Of That89 40%
Quevega322 40%
Mickie26 37%
Salubrious82 37%
Trustan Times54 37%
With Zarkandar reinstated:
At Fishers Cross47 63%
Big Buck´s47 63%
Rule The World54 58%
Reve De Sivola47 57%
Celestial Halo26 54%
Annie Power47 53%
Zarkandar26 50%
Medinas103 46%
Mala Beach49 45%
Thousand Stars74 42%
Boston Bob47 41%
More Of That89 40%
Quevega322 40%
Mickie26 37%
Salubrious82 37%
Trustan Times54 37%
Great work as usual this forum wouldn't be the same without you
Triumph Hurdle
Field of 26. Ratings up to date, but could change should there be a significant move in the betting for any horses not in the current top 4. Will update nearer the off.
Pearl Castle23 81%
Rutherglen29F 77%
Guitar Pete33 76%
Royal Irish Hussar90 74%
Broughton40 70%
Calipto34 70%
Activial20 65%
Abbyssial20 57%
Handiwork27 57%
Plinth33 57%
Le Rocher48 56%
Tiger Roll33 51%
Goodwood Mirage20 44%
Ivan Grozny33 44%
Lindenhurst160 44%
Akdam13F 37%
Ballyglasheen48 32%
Kentucky Hyden48 32%
Cherry Tiger8 32%
Clarcam40 27%
Noble Inn50 26%
Streak13 26%
Achtung13 25%
Gitane Du Berlais54 25%
Amoruccio21 20%
Adriana Des Mottes20 20%
Field of 26. Ratings up to date, but could change should there be a significant move in the betting for any horses not in the current top 4. Will update nearer the off.
Pearl Castle23 81%
Rutherglen29F 77%
Guitar Pete33 76%
Royal Irish Hussar90 74%
Broughton40 70%
Calipto34 70%
Activial20 65%
Abbyssial20 57%
Handiwork27 57%
Plinth33 57%
Le Rocher48 56%
Tiger Roll33 51%
Goodwood Mirage20 44%
Ivan Grozny33 44%
Lindenhurst160 44%
Akdam13F 37%
Ballyglasheen48 32%
Kentucky Hyden48 32%
Cherry Tiger8 32%
Clarcam40 27%
Noble Inn50 26%
Streak13 26%
Achtung13 25%
Gitane Du Berlais54 25%
Amoruccio21 20%
Adriana Des Mottes20 20%
Albert Bartlett
Updated at latest declaration stage:
Kings Palace90 93%
Briar Hill68 87%
Captain Cutter76 82%
Deputy Dan62 82%
Faugheen76 74%
Royal Boy62 74%
Urban Hymn48 73%
Champagne West55 67%
Blakemount48 66%
Rathvinden48 65%
Vautour33 64%
Apache Jack68 59%
Mosspark22 59%
Sausalito Sunrise48 58%
Rydon Pynes34 57%
Sure Reef47 57%
Knock House55 51%
Masters Hill62 51%
The Job Is Right22 50%
Perfect Gentleman22 49%
Cogry21 48%
Mountain Tunes85 43%
Pleasant Company21 43%
Port Melon118 43%
Urano15 43%
Very Wood68 43%
Saint Roque42 38%
Madness Light48 34%
Valseur Lido83 34%
Regal Diamond23 33%
Prince Siegfried62 26%
Renneti77 26%
Caledonia27 15%
Updated at latest declaration stage:
Kings Palace90 93%
Briar Hill68 87%
Captain Cutter76 82%
Deputy Dan62 82%
Faugheen76 74%
Royal Boy62 74%
Urban Hymn48 73%
Champagne West55 67%
Blakemount48 66%
Rathvinden48 65%
Vautour33 64%
Apache Jack68 59%
Mosspark22 59%
Sausalito Sunrise48 58%
Rydon Pynes34 57%
Sure Reef47 57%
Knock House55 51%
Masters Hill62 51%
The Job Is Right22 50%
Perfect Gentleman22 49%
Cogry21 48%
Mountain Tunes85 43%
Pleasant Company21 43%
Port Melon118 43%
Urano15 43%
Very Wood68 43%
Saint Roque42 38%
Madness Light48 34%
Valseur Lido83 34%
Regal Diamond23 33%
Prince Siegfried62 26%
Renneti77 26%
Caledonia27 15%
Gold Cup
Updated for the latest decs and the supplementary entry for On His Own.
Bobs Worth76 88%
Silviniaco Conti78 79%
Last Instalment33 74%
Captain Chris27 56%
Harry Topper34 51%
First Lieutenant33 51%
Lord Windermere33 51%
The Giant Bolster48 45%
Houblon Des Obeaux27 40%
Triolo D´Alene104 39%
Lyreen Legend33 39%
Cloudy Too27 34%
Bog Warrior27 28%
Knockara Beau29 23%
On His Own20 22%
Teaforthree27 21%
Katenko34 18%
Updated for the latest decs and the supplementary entry for On His Own.
Bobs Worth76 88%
Silviniaco Conti78 79%
Last Instalment33 74%
Captain Chris27 56%
Harry Topper34 51%
First Lieutenant33 51%
Lord Windermere33 51%
The Giant Bolster48 45%
Houblon Des Obeaux27 40%
Triolo D´Alene104 39%
Lyreen Legend33 39%
Cloudy Too27 34%
Bog Warrior27 28%
Knockara Beau29 23%
On His Own20 22%
Teaforthree27 21%
Katenko34 18%
Foxhunters
Ratings at latest declaration stage and after a couple of additional runs affecting the ratings:
Current Exchange7 100%
Harbour Court20P 92%
On The Fringe33 92%
Divine Intavention17 90%
Made In Time23 89%
Minella Stars26P 81%
Certain Flight22 81%
Shy John29 81%
Ravethebrave19P 80%
Oscar Delta27P 74%
Kirkleigh12P 73%
Gale Force Oscar12 73%
Ganbei19P 73%
Ockey De Neulliac27 71%
Palypso De Creek23 71%
Tammys Hill20 71%
The Hollinwell19P 71%
Carsonstown Boy20P 69%
Doctor Kingsley41 63%
Croan Rock23 63%
Pearlysteps37 61%
That´s Rhythm40 61%
Berties Dream40P 61%
Double Bank16 60%
Boxing Along19P 54%
Foundry Square23 49%
Lucette Annie26P 45%
Up There12P 31%
Ratings at latest declaration stage and after a couple of additional runs affecting the ratings:
Current Exchange7 100%
Harbour Court20P 92%
On The Fringe33 92%
Divine Intavention17 90%
Made In Time23 89%
Minella Stars26P 81%
Certain Flight22 81%
Shy John29 81%
Ravethebrave19P 80%
Oscar Delta27P 74%
Kirkleigh12P 73%
Gale Force Oscar12 73%
Ganbei19P 73%
Ockey De Neulliac27 71%
Palypso De Creek23 71%
Tammys Hill20 71%
The Hollinwell19P 71%
Carsonstown Boy20P 69%
Doctor Kingsley41 63%
Croan Rock23 63%
Pearlysteps37 61%
That´s Rhythm40 61%
Berties Dream40P 61%
Double Bank16 60%
Boxing Along19P 54%
Foundry Square23 49%
Lucette Annie26P 45%
Up There12P 31%
Rewards for Racing Novices Handicap Chase
Have only rated horses 1 to 40, as little realistic chnce of nything below that getting a run I'd have thought. Will revise if I'm incorrect with that assumption when final decs available.
20 The Romford Pele34 85%
Manyriverstocross38 80%
Ericht37 73%
Dursey Sound14 71%
Une Artiste32 67%
Indian Castle45 65%
Present View17 65%
33 Buywise34 64%
Close House40 60%
Persian Snow18 58%
Ahyaknowyerself49 58%
22 No Buts31 56%
27 Top Of The Range20 56%
15 Up And Go19 55%
Balnaslow47 55%
Dark Lover17 53%
Up To Something46 52%
Passage Vendome94 50%
Pendra80 49%
29 King Vuvuzela45 49%
26 Wrong Turn44 49%
Attaglance37 48%
25 Sizing Machine24 47%
23 Le Reve24 47%
19 Christopher Wren39 47%
18 The Way We Were31 47%
Baby Mix80 46%
34 Festive Affair55 46%
31 Buthelezi99 46%
30 Ohio Gold45 43%
Cause Of Causes74 43%
21 Firm Order20 42%
16 Bobcatbilly24 42%
17 Harry Hunt13 41%
Art Of Logistics75 39%
Muldoon´s Picnic63 39%
Grandads Horse122 34%
28 Gardefort24 34%
24 The Cockney Mackem80 32%
32 Tony Star143 28%
Have only rated horses 1 to 40, as little realistic chnce of nything below that getting a run I'd have thought. Will revise if I'm incorrect with that assumption when final decs available.
20 The Romford Pele34 85%
Manyriverstocross38 80%
Ericht37 73%
Dursey Sound14 71%
Une Artiste32 67%
Indian Castle45 65%
Present View17 65%
33 Buywise34 64%
Close House40 60%
Persian Snow18 58%
Ahyaknowyerself49 58%
22 No Buts31 56%
27 Top Of The Range20 56%
15 Up And Go19 55%
Balnaslow47 55%
Dark Lover17 53%
Up To Something46 52%
Passage Vendome94 50%
Pendra80 49%
29 King Vuvuzela45 49%
26 Wrong Turn44 49%
Attaglance37 48%
25 Sizing Machine24 47%
23 Le Reve24 47%
19 Christopher Wren39 47%
18 The Way We Were31 47%
Baby Mix80 46%
34 Festive Affair55 46%
31 Buthelezi99 46%
30 Ohio Gold45 43%
Cause Of Causes74 43%
21 Firm Order20 42%
16 Bobcatbilly24 42%
17 Harry Hunt13 41%
Art Of Logistics75 39%
Muldoon´s Picnic63 39%
Grandads Horse122 34%
28 Gardefort24 34%
24 The Cockney Mackem80 32%
32 Tony Star143 28%
Will you be updating each race and posting on here after the final decs are known Joci or are these your final standings?
Thanx in advance
Thanx in advance
I'll update as much as possible this weekend, and during the festival, as things can change last minute.
Cheers joci this is by far the best festival thread.
My lay if the festival seems to be one of your hot ones lol. Maybe I'll trade some back.
My lay if the festival seems to be one of your hot ones lol. Maybe I'll trade some back.
My speciality is the Handicap Hurdles.
Cant wait to see how my selections compare to your ratings JOCI
Mine are:
FRED WINTER - Space Ship
CORAL CUP - BAYAN (NAP)
PERTEMPS - Jetson
COUNTY - Garde Le Victoire
MARTIN PIPE - The Skyfarmer
Hope you have some of them in the top section of the ratings.
Cant wait to see how my selections compare to your ratings JOCI
Mine are:
FRED WINTER - Space Ship
CORAL CUP - BAYAN (NAP)
PERTEMPS - Jetson
COUNTY - Garde Le Victoire
MARTIN PIPE - The Skyfarmer
Hope you have some of them in the top section of the ratings.
We will see, but not looked at them yet on account of the large field size. Some of these handicaps will be the final piece of the jigsaw for me.
Great stuff Joci as always , already backed Many Clouds and Current Exchange the 100% horses and also some nice early ew bets on some others great thread as always Joci
Coral Cup
For now, I've only rated the top 40 runners in the Coral Cup to provide some 'indicative' ratings:
Un Temps Pour Tout 25 94%
Timesremembered 46 84%
Upazo 60 83%
Dell´ Arca 32 82%
Waaheb 67 81%
Lac Fontana 46 81%
Vendor 32 79%
Indevan 116 78%
Magnifique Etoile 109 78%
Kaylif Aramis 25 76%
Bayan 129F 75%
Smashing 32 72%
Whisper 39 72%
Rum And Butter 145 72%
Calculated Risk 76 71%
Sametegal 38 71%
Un Beau Matin 24 71%
Flaxen Flare 46 71%
Cotton Mill 102 70%
Far West 32 70%
Clondaw Kaempfer 95 69%
Dunguib 24 69%
Ifandbutwhynot 53 65%
Renneti 75 63%
Une Artiste 33 63%
Vieux Lion Rouge 20 63%
Oscars Well 38 58%
Doctor Harper 4 54%
Noble Prince 87 53%
Party Rock 34 53%
Yesyoucan 47 52%
Edgardo Sol 89 52%
Rocky Wednesday 17 47%
Get Me Out Of Here 115 46%
Meister Eckhart 17 44%
Very Wood 66 39%
Clerk´s Choice 27F 38%
Sadler´s Risk 38 36%
Son Of Flicka 21 35%
Hazy Tom 23 33%
Hold fire for now though, til running plans are known.
For now, I've only rated the top 40 runners in the Coral Cup to provide some 'indicative' ratings:
Un Temps Pour Tout 25 94%
Timesremembered 46 84%
Upazo 60 83%
Dell´ Arca 32 82%
Waaheb 67 81%
Lac Fontana 46 81%
Vendor 32 79%
Indevan 116 78%
Magnifique Etoile 109 78%
Kaylif Aramis 25 76%
Bayan 129F 75%
Smashing 32 72%
Whisper 39 72%
Rum And Butter 145 72%
Calculated Risk 76 71%
Sametegal 38 71%
Un Beau Matin 24 71%
Flaxen Flare 46 71%
Cotton Mill 102 70%
Far West 32 70%
Clondaw Kaempfer 95 69%
Dunguib 24 69%
Ifandbutwhynot 53 65%
Renneti 75 63%
Une Artiste 33 63%
Vieux Lion Rouge 20 63%
Oscars Well 38 58%
Doctor Harper 4 54%
Noble Prince 87 53%
Party Rock 34 53%
Yesyoucan 47 52%
Edgardo Sol 89 52%
Rocky Wednesday 17 47%
Get Me Out Of Here 115 46%
Meister Eckhart 17 44%
Very Wood 66 39%
Clerk´s Choice 27F 38%
Sadler´s Risk 38 36%
Son Of Flicka 21 35%
Hazy Tom 23 33%
Hold fire for now though, til running plans are known.
Cheers JOCI,
BAYAN is close enough to the top, to give me some confidence, especially as the clear top-rated is a likely NR.
BAYAN is close enough to the top, to give me some confidence, especially as the clear top-rated is a likely NR.
Loving the thread. How many of your 13 winners from last year were top rated? Thanks for all the hard work you've put in.
Whirly...here goes:
Champagne Fever (100%)
Simonsig (85%)
Golden Chieftain (83%)
[Hurricane Fly was 1% behind Rock On Ruby in Champion Hurdle]
The New One (100%)
[Boston Bob was top rated for RSA and looked the einner til falling]
Sprinter Sacre (97%)
Medinas (90% joint top rated of four)
[Our Connor was 2% 2nd top rated in Triumph]
At Fishers Cross (86%)
Salsify (93%) with 50/1 2nd placed Divine Intavention next best on 90%
Alderwood (78%)
Champagne Fever (100%)
Simonsig (85%)
Golden Chieftain (83%)
[Hurricane Fly was 1% behind Rock On Ruby in Champion Hurdle]
The New One (100%)
[Boston Bob was top rated for RSA and looked the einner til falling]
Sprinter Sacre (97%)
Medinas (90% joint top rated of four)
[Our Connor was 2% 2nd top rated in Triumph]
At Fishers Cross (86%)
Salsify (93%) with 50/1 2nd placed Divine Intavention next best on 90%
Alderwood (78%)
Intrigued about the Current Exchange 100% - didn't it PU in last years?
Fred Winter
Can't post up everything as I've transferred everything to the laptop which doesn't have internet facility, but here are the top several rated.
Zamoyski 92%
Akdam 76%
Space Ship 71%
Powder Hound 71%
Brave Helios 71%
Gerdago 70%
Invan Grozny 70%
Sea Beat 70%
Thorpe 70%
Certification 70%
Orgilgo Bay 70%
Bit of a minefield without knowing what's going to be turning up, and quite a few of the top rated need quite a few to drop out in order to get a run. Watching brief closer to the off is advised.
This will be my last update til I get to Cheltenham, when I will try and post up the top rated horses as much as I can.
Good luck to everyone!
Can't post up everything as I've transferred everything to the laptop which doesn't have internet facility, but here are the top several rated.
Zamoyski 92%
Akdam 76%
Space Ship 71%
Powder Hound 71%
Brave Helios 71%
Gerdago 70%
Invan Grozny 70%
Sea Beat 70%
Thorpe 70%
Certification 70%
Orgilgo Bay 70%
Bit of a minefield without knowing what's going to be turning up, and quite a few of the top rated need quite a few to drop out in order to get a run. Watching brief closer to the off is advised.
This will be my last update til I get to Cheltenham, when I will try and post up the top rated horses as much as I can.
Good luck to everyone!
Day 1 Bets
I will be having more closer to the time, but the horses backed so far on day 1 are:
1:30 Vautour, Wicklow Brave & Gilgamboa
2:05 Nothing yet, but will be backing Trifolium & Dodging Bullets
2:40 Time For Rupert, Hadrians Approach & Vintage Star
3:20 Nothing yet, but will be backing Hurricane Fly & My Tent Or Yours
4:00 Nothing yet, but in addition to Quevega, will be backing to place (possibly e/w) Glens Melody & Highland Retreat
4:40 Midnight Prayer & Milborough
5:15 Ericht & Manyriverstocross (will have a look at Dursey Sound on the day)
Good luck all!
I will be having more closer to the time, but the horses backed so far on day 1 are:
1:30 Vautour, Wicklow Brave & Gilgamboa
2:05 Nothing yet, but will be backing Trifolium & Dodging Bullets
2:40 Time For Rupert, Hadrians Approach & Vintage Star
3:20 Nothing yet, but will be backing Hurricane Fly & My Tent Or Yours
4:00 Nothing yet, but in addition to Quevega, will be backing to place (possibly e/w) Glens Melody & Highland Retreat
4:40 Midnight Prayer & Milborough
5:15 Ericht & Manyriverstocross (will have a look at Dursey Sound on the day)
Good luck all!
Just having a Guinness in the Rising Sun on Cleeve Hill......lovely weather here!
its nice up there joci enjoy an thx for the posts top work 
You enjoy yourself Joci and thanks for all your hard work , best of luck with your selections stay safe and God Bless
Pleased with that in the end. Good start with Vautour. Then made to sweat with Quevega's win. Happy to have put up Glens Melody as an each way alternative but in the end I just had a bigger bet on Quevega and didnt do the exacta. Landed the 4 miler with Midnight Prayer to cap a decent start to the Festival.
Milborough ran an absolutely stunning race in the 4-miler there, and was bang there at the last
JOCI what are you backing today, and whats your NAP and Next Best?
1.30 faugheen 90% / Red Sherlock 79%
2.05 Many Clouds 100% Don Cossack 85%
2.40 Dell arca 89% Timesremembered 84% Kalif Aramis 82% Waaheb 81%
3.20 Arvika Ligeonniere 82% Sire De Grugy 80%
4.00 Sizing Australia 72% Balthazar King 64%
4.40 Akdam 76% Gerdago 70% Ivan Grozny 70% Certification 70% Orgilgo Bay 70%
5.15 Value At Risk 91% Silver Concorde 81% Vigil 73%
Nap Many Clouds
NB Value At Risk. / Faugheen
2.05 Many Clouds 100% Don Cossack 85%
2.40 Dell arca 89% Timesremembered 84% Kalif Aramis 82% Waaheb 81%
3.20 Arvika Ligeonniere 82% Sire De Grugy 80%
4.00 Sizing Australia 72% Balthazar King 64%
4.40 Akdam 76% Gerdago 70% Ivan Grozny 70% Certification 70% Orgilgo Bay 70%
5.15 Value At Risk 91% Silver Concorde 81% Vigil 73%
Nap Many Clouds
NB Value At Risk. / Faugheen
Cheers JOCI.
I am v.big on BAYAN in the County.
Also got FAUGHEEN at 12/1 to win any race in November.
The other fancies I have are BARADARI (hopefully V Williams usual 20/1+ handicap winner)
and SHANESHILL - visually so impressive when kicking clear in November, on good ground - with Ruby up - excellent.
Lets hope we both kick off with a Faugheen win in the first.
Good luck
I am v.big on BAYAN in the County.
Also got FAUGHEEN at 12/1 to win any race in November.
The other fancies I have are BARADARI (hopefully V Williams usual 20/1+ handicap winner)
and SHANESHILL - visually so impressive when kicking clear in November, on good ground - with Ruby up - excellent.
Lets hope we both kick off with a Faugheen win in the first.
Good luck
deepingfox
12 Mar 14 11:52
Joined:
10 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 164 | Blogger: deepingfox's blog
Also got FAUGHEEN at 12/1 to win any race in November
Well he won at Punchestown on the 17th November so you should have been payed out already for that one.
12 Mar 14 11:52
Joined:
10 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 164 | Blogger: deepingfox's blog
Also got FAUGHEEN at 12/1 to win any race in November
Well he won at Punchestown on the 17th November so you should have been payed out already for that one.
4 winners today in Faugheen, Sire De Grugy, Balthazar King and Silver Concorde. Peed off with the RSA Chase with 2nd top rated Don Cossack falling and bringing down Many Clouds especially since O Faolins Boy won. In Istabraq Bar now then off to Bishops Cleeve curry house then to boozer for form study!
Must be a fair few pints up after your bumper winner JOCI?
Working on it after fading badly in pub last night. Had set a target of 8 winners and have 7 so far so good going. I did draw a blank on Thursday last year though.
Do you not do level stakes on your picks the JOCI?
Varying stakes. Did not fancy Sizing Australia that much so only small bet with bigger bet Balthazar King.
Okey dokes. Fair play.
Even at level stakes your picks are still 6-7 pts up so fair play
Even at level stakes your picks are still 6-7 pts up so fair play
Hi Jockey, well done today.
What the betting line up tomorrow?
and who are your NAP and Next Best again?
Thanks
What the betting line up tomorrow?
and who are your NAP and Next Best again?
Thanks
1:30 Felix Yonger 81% Taquin de Seuil 81%
2:05 Utopie des Bordes 93% Mister Dillon 87% Uncle Jimmy 81%
2:40 Benefficient 94% Al Ferof 92%
3:20 At Fishers Cross 63% Big Bucks 63%
4:00 Third Intention 88% Shangani 87%
4:40 Twirling Magnet 86% Buddy Bolero 84% Same Difference 84%
Good luck all,
2:05 Utopie des Bordes 93% Mister Dillon 87% Uncle Jimmy 81%
2:40 Benefficient 94% Al Ferof 92%
3:20 At Fishers Cross 63% Big Bucks 63%
4:00 Third Intention 88% Shangani 87%
4:40 Twirling Magnet 86% Buddy Bolero 84% Same Difference 84%
Good luck all,
Thanks JOCI - good luck.
Watching brief for me today.....I don't have a strong fancy for anything!
Watching brief for me today.....I don't have a strong fancy for anything!
Thanks JOCI, now for the walk to the track, good luck everyone.
Difficult Day 3, never my favourite card, but onwards and upwards with some strong fancies for Day 4.
Race
2) Never Enough Time - 20/1 this morning.
3) Kings Palace - 20/1 back in October.
5) Certain Flight - 20/1 still available
6) The Skyfarmer (twisted Skyfarmer - god Im going to sing that prodigy tune if this one wins) - 25/1 taken on Sunday
7) Ned Buntline (in the hood 1st time) - 10/1 this morning.
What do the stats say JOCI, any hope for any of my bets?
Race
2) Never Enough Time - 20/1 this morning.
3) Kings Palace - 20/1 back in October.
5) Certain Flight - 20/1 still available
6) The Skyfarmer (twisted Skyfarmer - god Im going to sing that prodigy tune if this one wins) - 25/1 taken on Sunday
7) Ned Buntline (in the hood 1st time) - 10/1 this morning.
What do the stats say JOCI, any hope for any of my bets?
JOCI are you out there, with Day 4 selections, hope Thursday didn't break you.
2.05 Flaxen flare 93% Lac Fontana 87%
2.40 Kings Palace 93% Briar Hill 87%
3.20 bobs worth 88% Silviniaco C 79%
4.00 On the fringe 92% Harbour Ct 92% Divine Int 90%
4.40 Vieux Lion rouge 88% Virak 88%
5.15 Raya Star 77% Passge Vendome 69%
2.40 Kings Palace 93% Briar Hill 87%
3.20 bobs worth 88% Silviniaco C 79%
4.00 On the fringe 92% Harbour Ct 92% Divine Int 90%
4.40 Vieux Lion rouge 88% Virak 88%
5.15 Raya Star 77% Passge Vendome 69%
Thanks JOCI, and a big thanks for this week as a whole, hope we all share the luck out between us today,
Interesting to see you have Pipe up there for two more possible wins, could be top trainer isn't Mullins this year, and the Irishman is still odds on in that market.
Interesting to see you have Pipe up there for two more possible wins, could be top trainer isn't Mullins this year, and the Irishman is still odds on in that market.
Well folks, been home for a while now, and must admit I enjoyed this year's battle with the bookies. The weather was great, and I had more of my fair share of winners (beat my target of 8) even if things did tail off a bit on Thursday and Friday.
In the end, I managed 9 winners, spread as follows:
Tuesday 3
Wednesday 4
Thursday 1
Friday 1
Highlight was probably Quevega battling hard to win her 6th Mares Hurdle. Low point was RSA Chase, and Don Cossack bringing down Many Clouds, who would surely have gone close otherwise.
The trends came up with a 33% winning strike rate, which althpough down on last year, is still respectable. Will need to check through the facts, but it appeared as if quite a lot of 2nd top rated horses won this week.
In the end, I managed 9 winners, spread as follows:
Tuesday 3
Wednesday 4
Thursday 1
Friday 1
Highlight was probably Quevega battling hard to win her 6th Mares Hurdle. Low point was RSA Chase, and Don Cossack bringing down Many Clouds, who would surely have gone close otherwise.
The trends came up with a 33% winning strike rate, which althpough down on last year, is still respectable. Will need to check through the facts, but it appeared as if quite a lot of 2nd top rated horses won this week.
Yes thanks Joci. A Cheltenham thread to look forward to every year. It seems like New Year starts in Mid-March not January nowadays and the festival seems a long way off but we all know that it'll be here before you know it.
Joci - many thanks for all the analysis - I can just about comprehend the amount of work it too. Your trends analysis is always on my Must Read list
Thanks gents...under consideration is a trend attack on the major Aintree races!
Some excellent winners very well done,Glad all the work paid off Joci,
Hope you had a great 4 days racing & Best of luck for Aintree.
Hope you had a great 4 days racing & Best of luck for Aintree.
ttt
Just thought it would be interesting to look at last year's thread.
Just thought it would be interesting to look at last year's thread.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539