Cheltenham Festival
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This weekend I dusted off the old spreadsheet from the 2013 Festival, and created a template for 2014, clearing out the old data, and readying it for the 'data onslaught' from early 2014 onwards. Brought back some great memories from March.
Thanks in advance to Racecaller, whose trends I rely upon greatly for much of my analysis.
Coming soon, at a spreadsheet near you..........................
Thanks in advance to Racecaller, whose trends I rely upon greatly for much of my analysis.
Coming soon, at a spreadsheet near you..........................
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Arkle Chase
Preliminary rankings for the Arkle Chase on Day 1 of the Festival. These rankings may well change as and when horses in the current line-up run between now and the festival, but these are a good indication of where the trend horses are: Dodging Bullets 92% Trifolium 82% Don Cossack 81% Hinterland 79% Balder Succes 74% Valdez 69% Rock On Ruby 67% Ballycasey 63% Fox Appeal 62% Felix Yonger 56% Brick Red 56% Bright New Dawn 56% Grandouet 56% Defy Logic 55% Champagne Fever 54% Mr Mole 50% Djakadam 49% Ted Veale 48% Eduard 45% Arnaud 44% Caid Du Berlais 44% Raya Star 43% Western Warhorse 38% Mozoltov 38% Ahyaknowyerself 37% Ned Buntline 37% Dark Lover 36% Midnight Game 32% Claret Cloak 32% Vukovar 31% Art Of Logistics 25% Lord Of House 25% Next Sensation 25% Shrapnel 17% |
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Don Cossack on 81% J?
Agree with CF on 54%! |
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ballycasey above FY baffles me
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He's won a Grade 1 and over 17f so can see why tbh.
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Champion Hurdle preliminary long range ratings:
Hurricane Fly 75% My Tent Or Yours 72% Jezki 59% Annie Power 58% Un De Sceaux 58% Ptit Zig 55% The New One 55% Our Conor 52% Grumeti 44% Melodic Rendezvous 41% Thousand Stars 38% |
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Appreciate the sharing and time and effort put in etc, do we get any insight into how the ratings are arrived at?
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Yes, too busy to type it all up here but can share my spreadsheet analysis if you wanted to drop me a message. It's all based upon 10 year trends, and each horse is assessed against each of the trends which I 'weight' according to their perceived 'importance'.
Takes a long time to assess the races, particlarly the larger handicaps, but it paid dividends last year with my best ever festival. |
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Like some trend analysis, I don't automatically rule a horse out if it doesn't comply with one of the key trends, rather I assess each orse against ALL the trends, and arrive at the most likely winner (at least in my opinion) from a statistical viewpoint.
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Sounds an eminently reasonable approach, then assign the recent form with a value/weighting, coupled with with the trends should get you bang in the ballpark, at worst def should avoid getting wiped out, at best a decent profit :-)
Message sent btw. |
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I think I have last years still, so nothing has changed J?
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joci out of interest, had the TNO not made a mistake at the last and won at kempton what would his percentage be?
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Good Luck Joci. Hope all the hard work pays off.
Be interested to see how Sam Winner comes out on the 4 miler with you as i think he ticks a lot of boxes myself. |
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Joined:
10 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 2,462 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog joci out of interest, had the TNO not made a mistake at the last and won at kempton what would his percentage be? Would put him up to 60%. Were he to run and win between now and Cheltenham, would put him up to 74%. |
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is the tents rating judged on a win in a jumpers bumper? (obv fits boxes by the recent run but no hurdles were jumped)
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thx joci
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MTOY's rating was not impacted by the bumper run. Took his prior race RPR and he'd won that race anyway.
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ok mate
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Last year these post by joci was awesome.
Thanks again for putting them up. |
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Queen Mother Champion Chase preliminary rankings:
Benefficient 83% Arvika Ligeonniere 82% Sire De Grugy 80% Sprinter Sacre 71% Al Ferof 67% Hinterland 66% Module 66% Special Tiara 52% Somersby 50% Kid Cassidy 49% Captain Conan 49% Savello 44% Wishfull Thinking 41% Sizing Europe 41% Baily Green 40% Alderwood 32% Astracad 31% |
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RSA Chase
Many Clouds 100% Don Cossack 85% Ballycasey 84% Morning Assembly 84% Black Thunder 84% Taquin Du Seuil 84% Foxrock 80% Sizing Gold 78% Bright New Dawn 77% Corrin Wood 77% Wonderful Charm 77% Holywell 77% O´Faolains Boy 76% Ardkilly Witness 73% Green Flag 71% Carlingford Lough 70% Djakadam 65% Le Bec 63% Champagne Fever 62% Uxizandre 61% Double Ross 60% Just A Par 60% Shutthefrontdoor 60% Sam Winner 59% Smad Place 59% Annacotty 55% Samingarry 47% Shrapnel 47% Spring Heeled 47% Le Reve 41% Gevrey Chambertin 39% Mullaghanoe River 38% Si C´Etait Vrai 31% Via Sundown 15% Cause Of Causes 14% |
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Joci, how often does a horse hit 100%?
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If I remember correctly last year champagne fever was 100% and freely available at 15-1.
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Really great post - would be extremely grateful to get a look at your spreadsheet on the run up to Cheltenham, if possible. Best regards
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Good stuff Joci
Beneficent  Many Clouds |
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Joined:
09 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 5,106 | Blogger: Money Tree cost me thousands!!'s blog If I remember correctly last year champagne fever was 100% and freely available at 15-1. Last year, the 100% horses were Champagne Fever (won), The New One (won) & Reve De Sivola (4th) |
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14 Oct 02 | Topic/replies: 11 | Blogger: The Jacks are Back!'s blog Really great post - would be extremely grateful to get a look at your spreadsheet on the run up to Cheltenham, if possible. Best regards No probs, message me and I'll send you what I've done so far. |
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Supreme Novices Hurdle
Wicklow Brave37 87% Gilgamboa45 86% Vautour30 85% Faugheen73 85% The Tullow Tank30 83% Fennell Bay27 81% Vieux Lion Rouge19 79% Josses Hill59 78% Valseur Lido80 77% Western Boy59 77% Lieutenant Colonel37 76% Upazo59 74% Sky Khan19F 73% Pearl Castle20 72% First Mohican33 71% Mountain King24 71% Wilde Blue Yonder24 71% Lac Fontana45 70% Le Vent D´Antan31 68% Noble Endeavor20 67% Stand To Reason52 64% Vice Et Vertu39 64% Mijhaar68 64% Cheltenian31 63% Dell´ Arca31 62% Stellar Notion20 62% Renneti74 62% Broughton37 62% Vaniteux33 61% Un Ace20 60% Roll It Out38 60% Quickpick Vic30 55% Irving81 55% Sea Lord114 54% Dubai Prince46 53% Pleasant Company18 53% Three Kingdoms74 52% Sgt Reckless39 51% Splash Of Ginge31 51% Minella Foru100 51% Garde La Victoire59 50% Ivan Grozny30 47% Arctic Fire74 47% The Liquidator59 44% Fascino Rustico24 43% Adriana Des Mottes70 40% Art Of Payroll30 40% Double Irish19 40% Merrion Row172 38% Aurore D´Estruval24 35% Germany Calling144 35% Gassin Golf101 34% The Brock Again65 26% Fantasy King150 25% Aazif23 25% Cup Final117 25% Volt Face82 24% Prince Of Lombardy122 21% Deep Trouble31 16% Diamond Life459 7% Preliminary ratings so far, which could change over next week or so. Interesting that the trends don't give Irving much of a chance. |
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Today's run would surely increase Irving's rating though?
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JOCI, why was Irving's rating so low?
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The trends Irving doesn't satisfy are:
1 Not won a bumper of had a flat rating 86+ (though hard to know what rating he actually ran to in Germany) 2 Not won a race of 14+ runners (he has won a 13 runner race though, so in reality' little difference) 3 Doesn't have a top 4 finish in a Grade 1 hurdle 4 Not Irish trained 5 Not likely to be priced 10/1 or bigger (some may chose to disregard this trend) His rating did increase after today's run as it meant he had his final run within the preferred 56 days, which saw his rating inrease to 64%. I'm not saying he can't win, especially after today....he just doesn't seem ideally suited based on the historic trends. |
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Thanks, looking forward to your ratings for the other races.
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World Hurdle
Preliminary ratings in the World Hurdle are as follows: Rule The World 66% At Fishers Cross 63% Big Buck´s 63% Reve De Sivola 57% Celestial Halo 54% Annie Power 53% Zaidpour 51% Zarkandar 50% Fingal Bay 50% Medinas 46% Mala Beach 45% Thousand Stars 42% Boston Bob 41% More Of That 40% Quevega 40% Holywell 40% Mickie 37% Salubrious 37% Trustan Times 37% Cotton Mill 33% Awaywiththegreys 29% Meister Eckhart 28% Saphir Du Rheu 23% Monksland 15% Rule The World slightly ahead in the rankings, but this includes the assumption that he fulfils the criteria of winning over 3 miles, only in a maiden point to point. If you chose to disregard this (and look to him to have won over 3 miles over hurdles), he would rank lower. Will revisit closer to the time, as the top 4 in the betting are favoured, and that is still liable to change over the next 2 weeks. |
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just like to say thanks really enjoy this approach
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Mount Belbulben to be supplemented into WH.
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Cheers for pointing that out Sint,just had some 25 nrnb.
Buy you a beer if he wins mate |
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Have been looking at the Foxhunters tonight, and without having finalised the analysis yet, Harbour Court, Divine Intavention and On The Fringe seem to be amongst the best 'trend' horses.
Last year, the trends picked Salsify & Divine Intavention as top rated, and they finished 1st and 2nd (Divine Intavention @ 50/1). Lucky though due to leader falling at the last. |
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Mares Hurdle
As Quevega has ruled with utter dominance, her stats will distort the trends, so stripping Quevega's impact out of the trends might find a horse to back as well as Quevega (if you feel so inclined). Preliminary ratings: Annie Power 95% Glens Melody 88% Highland Retreat 86% Cailin Annamh 77% Sirene D´Ainay 73% Flementime 66% Layla Joan 66% Legacy Gold 65% Mickie 64% Quevega 61% L´Unique 57% Mischievous Milly 57% Down Ace 56% Epee Celeste 52% Doyly Carte 51% Cockney Sparrow 49% Swing Bowler 48% Pass The Time 44% Jennies Jewel 43% Hidden Identity 43% Top Totti 43% Cloudy Spirit 35% Uddy 33% Little King Robin 33% Annie Power well clear (will she run - unlikely) followed by Glens Melody and Highland Retreat. |
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Quevega has won 5 out of 6 runnings and most of those off the back of an identical preparation to the one she's had this year. Surely she must come in at higher that 61%?
Nice work on all this anyway. |
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Brilliant Mate,can I nick your sheet
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