Cheltenham Festival

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23 Dec 13 00:15
Date Joined: 13 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 23,205 | Blogger: JOCI Club's blog
This weekend I dusted off the old spreadsheet from the 2013 Festival, and created a template for 2014, clearing out the old data, and readying it for the 'data onslaught' from early 2014 onwards. Brought back some great memories from March.

Thanks in advance to Racecaller, whose trends I rely upon greatly for much of my analysis.

Coming soon, at a spreadsheet near you..........................
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Report JOCI Club March 4, 2014 6:33 AM GMT
Thanks, just use them as a guide rather than 'gospel'.
Report Andymca March 4, 2014 7:06 AM GMT
The gospel according to Joci

I like the sound of that
Report JOCI Club March 4, 2014 9:55 PM GMT
Ryanair Chase

With riding plans somewhat up in the air, here are the latest trend ratings for the Ryanair Chase:

Benefficient76     94%
Al Ferof33    92
Cue Card77     91%
First Lieutenant32    78%
Dynaste77     78%
Captain Conan96     77%
Mount Benbulben19    76%
Riverside Theatre26    76%
Last Instalment32    70%
Menorah77     69%
Wishfull Thinking47    69%
Cloudy Too26    61%
Arvika Ligeonniere39    61%
Tatenen40    59%
Champion Court47    58%
Rajdhani Express117     55%
Boston Bob47    54%
Medermit26    54%
Module33    54%
Sizing Europe76     53%
Hidden Cyclone54     52%
Alderwood136     52%
Kid Cassidy76     46%
Lyreen Legend32    46%
Kauto Stone26    44%
Roi Du Mee19    44%
Rathlin39    44%
Hunt Ball26    43%
Time For Rupert22     43%
Cantlow89     42%
Baily Green32    37%
Twinlight18    37%
Rolling Aces26    36%
Toner D´Oudairies18    36%
Theatre Guide90     34%
Prince De Beauchene56     29%
Rubi Light21    26%
Fago19    19%
Rupert Lamb66     18%

The two top rated horses Benefficient and Al Ferof well ahead of the chasing pack, given Cue Card's absence.
Report JOCI Club March 4, 2014 9:58 PM GMT
In terms of what's stopping the above two from being 100% horses, Benefficient didn't run in the King George and Al Ferof didn't post a sufficiently high RPR last time out. That said, my slight current preference would be for Benefficient.
Report deepingfox March 4, 2014 10:25 PM GMT

Really enjoying your work.

My best results in winning years the last 3 Festivals have been in hurdle races, particularly handicap hurdles.

How successful was last years handicap hurdle selections?

When will you be producing the ratings for them this week? - as the 5-day decs come through and shrink the fields to a manageable size?
Report JOCI Club March 4, 2014 11:31 PM GMT
Yes, once the fields have narrowed down. Will check last year's results regarding the handicap hurdles now.
Report JOCI Club March 4, 2014 11:55 PM GMT
Medinas ended up joint top rated on 90% in the Coral Cup last year and won at 33/1 (I managed to get 42/1 on the Tote I think).

Nothing then in the other handicap hurdles until Day 4, when the final ratings pinpointed / shortlisted Ted Veale in the County Hurdle, who won at around 10/1.

So two handicap hurdle winners at decent prices (but I did back a few of the top rated in each of those races).

My other biggest winner was Golden Chieftain, who came in at a big price off bottom weight. Particularly enjoyed Champagne Fever winning the opener at a very tasty price for me.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! March 5, 2014 9:04 AM GMT
I bet you were shouting it when my tent was attacking joci
Report JOCI Club March 6, 2014 12:05 AM GMT
Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase

Still a field of around 50 to get to grips with, but here is what the trends say so far, with just the likely SP trend factor to be added:

Sraid Padraig101     90%
Time For Rupert20     86%
Buddy Bolero17     83%
Indian Castle45     82%
Hadrian´s Approach83     81%

Vintage Star52     79%
Cantlow87     78%
Goulanes73     75%
Holywell20     74%
Tour Des Champs17     74%
Muldoon´s Picnic63     73%
Sydney Paget52     73%
King Massini83     71%
Annacotty45     70%
Restless Harry24     70%
Our Father24     68%
Green Flag38     67%
Top Of The Range20     67%
Saint Are108     67%
Twirling Magnet129     67%
Alfie Sherrin108     67%
Victrix Gale74     67%
Spring Heeled74     66%
Wrong Turn44     64%
Soll24     63%
Solix45     61%
Vesper Bell47     61%
Shakalakaboomboom20     60%
Tap Night45     57%
Ma Filleule74     57%
Dursey Sound14     57%
Rigadin De Beauchene24     56%
Ackertac69     56%
The Package364     55%
Standing Ovation17     55%
Make A Track17     53%
Living Next Door45     53%
Golden Chieftain24     53%
Hunt Ball24     52%
Toner D´Oudairies16     52%
Tullamore Dew24     51%
Cause Of Causes74     50%
Wetak24     49%
Aachen20     48%
Vino Griego31     48%
Fruity O´Rooney20     48%
Relax17     43%
Fine Parchment38     41%
Renard45     36%
Pacha Du Polder296     35%

One to revisit closer to the time.
Report ZEALOT March 6, 2014 1:28 AM GMT
did u win anyth last year with your stats ?
Report JOCI Club March 6, 2014 6:35 AM GMT
13 winners last year - my best ever haul, some at big prices. Fully understand this could be a 'one-off'. Did bet more than one horse in many of the races.
Report marychain1 March 6, 2014 8:24 AM GMT
Time for Rupert?! LaughShocked **** me, I didn't even relise it was still in training. The day that thing wins any race at the festival, even the charity race will be the day hell freezes over.
Report ginger64 March 6, 2014 8:01 PM GMT
JOCI, as usual a really excellent number of comments and some very good thoughts/analysis, very similar to you I have never had such a good Cheltenham as last year, I remember having backed Champagne for the Supreme at 16's for a nice few quid and having big, big lumps on My Tent at 14's reading your Supreme analysis and saying to myself how right you were I carried on lumping on Champagne,I even got some 18's I think- all of which was very risky because everyone else was telling me he was not going to run in the Supreme. I spent the Tuesday morning laying off both horses to recover my stakes plus, plus and then the race. I walked up to the local Ladbrokes and paced around waiting for the off, one out I was screaming and I mean screaming everyone in the Rainham shop was aghast at my behaviour, the funny thing was I was cheering MY Tent as he took up the lead, only to shout even louder when Champagne came back, what an afternoon. I watched the Champion Hurdle telling everyone that my 'mate' Joci reckoned Hurricane was a good thing, they all tanked on. By the time Hurricane got over the line I needed to lie down, I was that exhausted, I was actually drunk on the sheer emotion of the day and I have never one so much money in my life- what a lovely memory.

Back to this year as per usual I have spent many hours studying, for me it is the hurdle races that I focus upon, Supreme, Champion, Neptune, Albert Bartlett and World Hurdle- yet this year I am really struggling so any would really be helpful. I always think that get off to a good start you are flying.....

Joci thanks again and I will look forward to hearing your views on the Supreme and Neptune.

Report Shrews March 6, 2014 8:24 PM GMT
Yep, great story that. I suppose we've all got those memories but they're nearly always few and far between. I suppose that's what make them 'great memories'

Here's to a few more !
Report JOCI Club March 6, 2014 8:39 PM GMT
Great to hear Ginger. Let's hope we get a bit of good fortune again this year!
Report Oasisdreamer March 6, 2014 8:44 PM GMT
JOCI a great thread this one and stories like Ginger's just add to it. 

I had a look at the Festival Handicap last night from a Stats and form perspective.  I came up with Sraid Padraig and I've taken the 20/1 NRNB.  Also some 40/1 on Betfair - that price suggests he may be 50/50 to run.  Interestingly my other 2 fancies are Time for Rupert and Buddy Bolero who are the others in your top 3 at present.  Time will tell eh!!
Report windsor knot March 6, 2014 8:44 PM GMT
i'll echo what many have said here joci ..very generous , impressive stuff. if you are anything like accurate i expect to have my bets restricted due to 'joci -wise '...good luck.
Report JOCI Club March 6, 2014 8:53 PM GMT
Another few hours of study awaits now back from work. One more day tomorrow, then off for the week, travelling down on Monday. Will be taking laptop though, to finish off the other races when down there.
Report Tory March 6, 2014 11:18 PM GMT
Joci, out of interest, do you count winning a PTP as having won over 3m? I have sraid padraig 7th at the moment as i only count a 3m win if it's under rules. King Massini is top for me along with muldoons picnic and vintage star. Do like time for Rupert though
Report JOCI Club March 6, 2014 11:35 PM GMT
Tory - that's a good point, and it's one area where I can be a little bit inconsistent. I can fluctuate from time to time in terms of how a view PTP races. I can certainly understand how you might want to discount PTP form on occasions like this, and in some races I do. Others I don't, can't really be much more specific or give a good reason for it. So, if you don't value the form of a PTP win over 3 miles, Sraid Padraig would rate lower.
Report JOCI Club March 6, 2014 11:37 PM GMT
Neptune Novices Hurdle

Rankings at the latest declaration sage would be:

Briar Hill66     90%
Faugheen74     90%

Red Sherlock46     79%
Deputy Dan60     79%
Rathvinden46     79%
Royal Boy60     78%
Un Temps Pour Tout25     70%
Vautour31     69%
Captain Cutter74     68%
Cole Harden25     61%
Creepy46     61%
Royal Regatta70     61%
Sure Reef45     60%
Knock House53     52%
Shanahan´s Turn73     52%
Fennell Bay28     51%
Madness Light46     51%
Valseur Lido81     51%
Lieutenant Colonel38     49%
Ballyalton70     49%
Midnight Thunder14     41%
Pleasant Company19     41%
Twelve Roses76     41%
Lac Fontana46     40%
Renneti75     40%
Sky Khan20F     40%
Killala Quay60     39%
Cup Final18     32%
Cocktails At Dawn89     22%

It appears to be between the top two.
Report Tory March 6, 2014 11:43 PM GMT
Thanks Joci - that's the beauty of stats, it's how you interpret them. Got my fingers badly burned 2yrs back by counting Boston Bob' s PTP as a win over 3m in the AB, when the stats if you took that away screamed Brindisi breeze (R.I.P). Ever since then I've only counted a 3m win if over hurdles or fences in rules
Report JOCI Club March 6, 2014 11:50 PM GMT
Can certainly understand that!
Report JOCI Club March 6, 2014 11:51 PM GMT
Neptune Novices Hurdle

Rankings at the latest declaration sage would be:

Briar Hill66     90%
Faugheen74     90%

Red Sherlock46     79%
Deputy Dan60     79%
Rathvinden46     79%
Royal Boy60     78%
Un Temps Pour Tout25     70%
Vautour31     69%
Captain Cutter74     68%
Cole Harden25     61%
Creepy46     61%
Royal Regatta70     61%
Sure Reef45     60%
Knock House53     52%
Shanahan´s Turn73     52%
Fennell Bay28     51%
Madness Light46     51%
Valseur Lido81     51%
Lieutenant Colonel38     49%
Ballyalton70     49%
Midnight Thunder14     41%
Pleasant Company19     41%
Twelve Roses76     41%
Lac Fontana46     40%
Renneti75     40%
Sky Khan20F     40%
Killala Quay60     39%
Cup Final18     32%
Cocktails At Dawn89     22%

It appears to be between the top two. Betting does suggest Briar Hill will be running elsewhere.
Report flannybhoy. March 7, 2014 7:35 PM GMT
Evening Joci great stuff , just 1 question and sorry for my ignorance , you gave rankings for a race I cant find the one where Sraid Padraig is top in your rankings , does it have another name , any help appreciated ta Cool
Report SOULDANCER March 7, 2014 7:59 PM GMT
flan,  Tuesday 2.40
Report flannybhoy. March 7, 2014 8:17 PM GMT
Good man Soul Dancer cheers will have a more in depth look now Cool
Report flannybhoy. March 7, 2014 8:22 PM GMT
That's the race Ive already backed Holywell in and Golden Chieftain who won for me last year at Cheltenham , ah well you pay your dough you take your chance , will keep an eye out for Sraid Padraig now though as well Cool
Report JOCI Club March 7, 2014 8:39 PM GMT
Good luck! Holywell for me was interesting for the 4 miler...comes out close to top rated.
Report flannybhoy. March 7, 2014 8:50 PM GMT
Evening Joci , I just like Holywell and Im sure he has won at Cheltenham before which is always a huge plus imho . So whatever race he goes for I will back him , backed him in NRNB anyway for the race Im talking about and also in 4 miler again NRNB . Will defo top up one race is known , great work fella really enjoy reading your work and best of luck this year again Cool
Report JOCI Club March 7, 2014 9:36 PM GMT
JLT Novices Chase

Revised rankings at the latest declaration stage. Still not entirely certain about running plans.

Don Cossack32     81%
Felix Yonger46     81%
Taquin Du Seuil54     81%

Ballycasey32     72%
Bright New Dawn25     72%
Wonderful Charm90     72%
Sizing Gold54     66%
Oscar Whisky40     63%
Djakadam47     63%
Balnaslow49     56%
Champagne Fever77     56%
Mozoltov18     53%
Caid Du Berlais47     47%
Art Of Logistics77     38%
Double Ross47     28%
Rock On Ruby35     28%
Uxizandre20     28%
Colour Squadron89     19%
Off The Ground89     19%
Captain Ocana25     9%
Vukovar75     9%
Report JOCI Club March 7, 2014 9:43 PM GMT
Ryanair Chase

Latest ratings now the field has been whittled down:

Benefficient76     94%
Al Ferof33    92%

First Lieutenant32    78%
Dynaste77     78%
Last Instalment32    70%
Menorah77     69%
Wishfull Thinking47    69%
Arvika Ligeonniere39    61%
Tatenen40    59%
Champion Court47    58%
Rajdhani Express117     55%
Boston Bob47    54%
Medermit26    54%
Module33    54%
Hidden Cyclone54     52%
Kid Cassidy76     46%
Kauto Stone26    44%
Rathlin39    44%
Hunt Ball26    43%
Cantlow89     42%
Prince De Beauchene56     29%

I'm feeling the love for Benefficent in the Ryanair. Al Ferof could be a big danger if back to bets, but will he be?
Report Kingchip March 7, 2014 9:47 PM GMT

Great work again - no 100% selections yet?
Report JOCI Club March 7, 2014 9:50 PM GMT
World Hurdle

Think I will be swerving everyone's favourite, Annie Power. Would need evidence of her staying ability to be able to part with my hard earned against the likes of the legendary Big Buck's and proven stayer At Fishers Cross.

At Fishers Cross47     63%
Big Buck´s47     63%

Rule The World54     58%
Reve De Sivola47     57%
Celestial Halo26    54%
Annie Power47     53%
Medinas103     46%
Mala Beach49     45%
Thousand Stars74     42%
Boston Bob47     41%
More Of That89     40%
Quevega322     40%
Mickie26    37%
Salubrious82     37%
Trustan Times54     37%

Big Buck's could be the one where everyone is saying 'how could I have been so stupid' if he romps home. Either that or I'll be the one in the stand with his head in his hands as Annie Power strolls home on the bridle.
Report JOCI Club March 7, 2014 9:51 PM GMT
05 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 27 | Blogger: Kingchip's blog

Great work again - no 100% selections yet?

Many Clouds (RSA) so far!

On at 20s. Will top up for the place too.
Report flannybhoy. March 7, 2014 10:06 PM GMT
Hopefully the Coral Cup ratings are soon to be revealed Joci - stop your slacking Laugh
Report sintonian March 7, 2014 10:07 PM GMT
Youve left out Zarkandar from WH, Joci.
Report alleged22 March 7, 2014 10:33 PM GMT
joci no rating for zarkandar in the world?
Report tornadobob March 7, 2014 10:46 PM GMT
Brilliant stuff Joci.great work
Report JOCI Club March 7, 2014 11:27 PM GMT
Sorry gents, might have been a bit trigger happy with the delete function in Excel....will get back on it!
Report JOCI Club March 7, 2014 11:37 PM GMT
World Hurdle

With Zarkandar reinstated:

At Fishers Cross47     63%
Big Buck´s47     63%

Rule The World54     58%
Reve De Sivola47     57%
Celestial Halo26    54%
Annie Power47     53%
Zarkandar26    50%
Medinas103     46%
Mala Beach49     45%
Thousand Stars74     42%
Boston Bob47     41%
More Of That89     40%
Quevega322     40%
Mickie26    37%
Salubrious82     37%
Trustan Times54     37%
Report Andymca March 8, 2014 6:55 AM GMT
Great work as usual this forum wouldn't be the same without you
Report JOCI Club March 8, 2014 2:46 PM GMT
Triumph Hurdle

Field of 26. Ratings up to date, but could change should there be a significant move in the betting for any horses not in the current top 4. Will update nearer the off.

Pearl Castle23     81%
Rutherglen29F     77%
Guitar Pete33     76%
Royal Irish Hussar90     74%

Broughton40     70%
Calipto34     70%
Activial20     65%
Abbyssial20     57%
Handiwork27     57%
Plinth33     57%
Le Rocher48     56%
Tiger Roll33     51%
Goodwood Mirage20     44%
Ivan Grozny33     44%
Lindenhurst160     44%
Akdam13F     37%
Ballyglasheen48     32%
Kentucky Hyden48     32%
Cherry Tiger8    32%
Clarcam40     27%
Noble Inn50     26%
Streak13     26%
Achtung13     25%
Gitane Du Berlais54     25%
Amoruccio21     20%
Adriana Des Mottes20     20%
Report JOCI Club March 8, 2014 3:22 PM GMT
Albert Bartlett

Updated at latest declaration stage:

Kings Palace90     93%
Briar Hill68     87%
Captain Cutter76     82%
Deputy Dan62     82%

Faugheen76     74%
Royal Boy62     74%
Urban Hymn48     73%
Champagne West55     67%
Blakemount48     66%
Rathvinden48     65%
Vautour33     64%
Apache Jack68     59%
Mosspark22     59%
Sausalito Sunrise48     58%
Rydon Pynes34     57%
Sure Reef47     57%
Knock House55     51%
Masters Hill62     51%
The Job Is Right22     50%
Perfect Gentleman22     49%
Cogry21     48%
Mountain Tunes85     43%
Pleasant Company21     43%
Port Melon118     43%
Urano15     43%
Very Wood68     43%
Saint Roque42     38%
Madness Light48     34%
Valseur Lido83     34%
Regal Diamond23     33%
Prince Siegfried62     26%
Renneti77     26%
Caledonia27     15%
Report JOCI Club March 8, 2014 3:40 PM GMT
Gold Cup

Updated for the latest decs and the supplementary entry for On His Own.

Bobs Worth76     88%
Silviniaco Conti78     79%
Last Instalment33    74%
Captain Chris27    56%
Harry Topper34    51%
First Lieutenant33    51%
Lord Windermere33    51%
The Giant Bolster48    45%
Houblon Des Obeaux27    40%
Triolo D´Alene104     39%
Lyreen Legend33    39%
Cloudy Too27    34%
Bog Warrior27    28%
Knockara Beau29    23%
On His Own20    22%
Teaforthree27    21%
Katenko34    18%
Report JOCI Club March 8, 2014 3:54 PM GMT

Ratings at latest declaration stage and after a couple of additional runs affecting the ratings:

Current Exchange7     100%
Harbour Court20P     92%
On The Fringe33     92%
Divine Intavention17     90%
Made In Time23     89%

Minella Stars26P     81%
Certain Flight22     81%
Shy John29     81%
Ravethebrave19P     80%
Oscar Delta27P     74%
Kirkleigh12P     73%
Gale Force Oscar12    73%
Ganbei19P     73%
Ockey De Neulliac27     71%
Palypso De Creek23     71%
Tammys Hill20     71%
The Hollinwell19P     71%
Carsonstown Boy20P     69%
Doctor Kingsley41     63%
Croan Rock23     63%
Pearlysteps37     61%
That´s Rhythm40     61%
Berties Dream40P     61%
Double Bank16    60%
Boxing Along19P     54%
Foundry Square23     49%
Lucette Annie26P     45%
Up There12P     31%
Report JOCI Club March 8, 2014 6:42 PM GMT
Rewards for Racing Novices Handicap Chase

Have only rated horses 1 to 40, as little realistic chnce of nything below that getting a run I'd have thought. Will revise if I'm incorrect with that assumption when final decs available.

20 The Romford Pele34     85%
Manyriverstocross38     80%
Ericht37     73%
Dursey Sound14     71%

Une Artiste32     67%
Indian Castle45     65%
Present View17     65%
33 Buywise34     64%
Close House40     60%
Persian Snow18     58%
Ahyaknowyerself49     58%
22 No Buts31     56%
27 Top Of The Range20     56%
15 Up And Go19     55%
Balnaslow47     55%
Dark Lover17     53%
Up To Something46     52%
Passage Vendome94     50%
Pendra80     49%
29 King Vuvuzela45     49%
26 Wrong Turn44     49%
Attaglance37     48%
25 Sizing Machine24     47%
23 Le Reve24     47%
19 Christopher Wren39     47%
18 The Way We Were31     47%
Baby Mix80     46%
34 Festive Affair55     46%
31 Buthelezi99     46%
30 Ohio Gold45     43%
Cause Of Causes74     43%
21 Firm Order20     42%
16 Bobcatbilly24     42%
17 Harry Hunt13     41%
Art Of Logistics75     39%
Muldoon´s Picnic63     39%
Grandads Horse122     34%
28 Gardefort24     34%
24 The Cockney Mackem80     32%
32 Tony Star143     28%
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 8, 2014 7:05 PM GMT
Will you be updating each race and posting on here after the final decs are known Joci or are these your final standings?

Thanx in advance
Report JOCI Club March 8, 2014 7:58 PM GMT
I'll update as much as possible this weekend, and during the festival, as things can change last minute.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! March 8, 2014 9:31 PM GMT
Cheers joci this is by far the best festival thread.

My lay if the festival seems to be one of your hot ones lol. Maybe I'll trade some back.
Report deepingfox March 8, 2014 10:05 PM GMT
My speciality is the Handicap Hurdles.
Cant wait to see how my selections compare to your ratings JOCI
Mine are:
FRED WINTER - Space Ship



COUNTY - Garde Le Victoire

MARTIN PIPE - The Skyfarmer

Hope you have some of them in the top section of the ratings.
Report JOCI Club March 8, 2014 10:52 PM GMT
We will see, but not looked at them yet on account of the large field size. Some of these handicaps will be the final piece of the jigsaw for me.
Report flannybhoy. March 9, 2014 1:59 PM GMT
Great stuff Joci as always , already backed Many Clouds and Current Exchange the 100% horses and also some nice early ew bets on some others great thread as always Joci Cool
Report JOCI Club March 9, 2014 10:03 PM GMT
Coral Cup

For now, I've only rated the top 40 runners in the Coral Cup to provide some 'indicative' ratings:

Un Temps Pour Tout 25     94%
Timesremembered 46     84%
Upazo 60     83%
Dell´ Arca 32     82%
Waaheb 67     81%
Lac Fontana 46     81%

Vendor 32     79%
Indevan 116     78%
Magnifique Etoile 109     78%
Kaylif Aramis 25     76%
Bayan 129F     75%
Smashing 32     72%
Whisper 39     72%
Rum And Butter 145     72%
Calculated Risk 76     71%
Sametegal 38     71%
Un Beau Matin 24     71%
Flaxen Flare 46     71%
Cotton Mill 102     70%
Far West 32     70%
Clondaw Kaempfer 95     69%
Dunguib 24     69%
Ifandbutwhynot 53     65%
Renneti 75     63%
Une Artiste 33     63%
Vieux Lion Rouge 20     63%
Oscars Well 38     58%
Doctor Harper 4     54%
Noble Prince 87     53%
Party Rock 34     53%
Yesyoucan 47     52%
Edgardo Sol 89     52%
Rocky Wednesday 17     47%
Get Me Out Of Here 115     46%
Meister Eckhart 17     44%
Very Wood 66     39%
Clerk´s Choice 27F     38%
Sadler´s Risk 38     36%
Son Of Flicka 21     35%
Hazy Tom 23     33%

Hold fire for now though, til running plans are known.
Report deepingfox March 9, 2014 10:59 PM GMT
Cheers JOCI,
BAYAN is close enough to the top, to give me some confidence, especially as the clear top-rated is a likely NR.
Report Whirly March 10, 2014 12:56 AM GMT
Loving the thread. How many of your 13 winners from last year were top rated? Thanks for all the hard work you've put in.
Report JOCI Club March 10, 2014 8:16 AM GMT goes:

Champagne Fever (100%)
Simonsig (85%)
Golden Chieftain (83%)

[Hurricane Fly was 1% behind Rock On Ruby in Champion Hurdle]

The New One (100%)

[Boston Bob was top rated for RSA and looked the einner til falling]

Sprinter Sacre (97%)
Medinas (90% joint top rated of four)

[Our Connor was 2% 2nd top rated in Triumph]

At Fishers Cross (86%)
Salsify (93%) with 50/1 2nd placed Divine Intavention next best on 90%
Alderwood (78%)
Report the muppet moans March 10, 2014 9:09 AM GMT
Intrigued about the Current Exchange 100% - didn't it PU in last years?
Report JOCI Club March 10, 2014 9:56 AM GMT
Yes, perhaps one not to go too overboard about. Happy
Report JOCI Club March 10, 2014 10:01 AM GMT
Fred Winter

Can't post up everything as I've transferred everything to the laptop which doesn't have internet facility, but here are the top several rated.

Zamoyski 92%
Akdam 76%
Space Ship 71%
Powder Hound 71%
Brave Helios 71%
Gerdago 70%
Invan Grozny 70%
Sea Beat 70%
Thorpe 70%
Certification 70%
Orgilgo Bay 70%

Bit of a minefield without knowing what's going to be turning up, and quite a few of the top rated need quite a few to drop out in order to get a run. Watching brief closer to the off is advised.

This will be my last update til I get to Cheltenham, when I will try and post up the top rated horses as much as I can.

Good luck to everyone!
Report JOCI Club March 10, 2014 1:14 PM GMT
Day 1 Bets

I will be having more closer to the time, but the horses backed so far on day 1 are:

1:30 Vautour, Wicklow Brave & Gilgamboa
2:05 Nothing yet, but will be backing Trifolium & Dodging Bullets
2:40 Time For Rupert, Hadrians Approach & Vintage Star
3:20 Nothing yet, but will be backing Hurricane Fly & My Tent Or Yours
4:00 Nothing yet, but in addition to Quevega, will be backing to place (possibly e/w) Glens Melody & Highland Retreat
4:40 Midnight Prayer & Milborough
5:15 Ericht & Manyriverstocross (will have a look at Dursey Sound on the day)

Good luck all!
Report JOCI Club March 10, 2014 5:12 PM GMT
Just having a Guinness in the Rising Sun on Cleeve Hill......lovely weather here!
Report chief dan March 10, 2014 5:27 PM GMT
its nice up there joci enjoy an thx for the posts top work Excited
Report flannybhoy. March 10, 2014 10:19 PM GMT
You enjoy yourself Joci and thanks for all your hard work , best of luck with your selections stay safe and God Bless CoolCool
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 10, 2014 10:20 PM GMT
I have sunk a few in there joci, good luck.
Report JOCI Club March 11, 2014 6:05 PM GMT
Pleased with that in the end. Good start with Vautour. Then made to sweat with Quevega's win. Happy to have put up Glens Melody as an each way alternative but in the end I just had a bigger bet on Quevega and didnt do the exacta. Landed the 4 miler with Midnight Prayer to cap a decent start to the Festival.
Report marychain1 March 11, 2014 7:43 PM GMT
Milborough ran an absolutely stunning race in the 4-miler there, and was bang there at the last
Report deepingfox March 12, 2014 10:38 AM GMT
JOCI what are you backing today, and whats your NAP and Next Best?
Report JOCI Club March 12, 2014 11:37 AM GMT
1.30 faugheen 90% / Red Sherlock 79%
2.05 Many Clouds 100% Don Cossack 85%
2.40 Dell arca 89% Timesremembered 84% Kalif Aramis 82% Waaheb 81%
3.20 Arvika Ligeonniere 82% Sire De Grugy 80%
4.00 Sizing Australia 72% Balthazar King 64%
4.40 Akdam 76% Gerdago 70% Ivan Grozny 70% Certification 70% Orgilgo Bay 70%
5.15 Value At Risk 91% Silver Concorde 81% Vigil 73%

Nap Many Clouds
NB Value At Risk. / Faugheen
Report deepingfox March 12, 2014 11:52 AM GMT
Cheers JOCI.

I am v.big on BAYAN in the County.

Also got FAUGHEEN at 12/1 to win any race in November.

The other fancies I have are BARADARI (hopefully V Williams usual 20/1+ handicap winner)

and SHANESHILL - visually so impressive when kicking clear in November, on good ground - with Ruby up - excellent.

Lets hope we both kick off with a Faugheen win in the first.

Good luck
Report brandyontherocks March 12, 2014 11:59 AM GMT
12 Mar 14 11:52
10 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 164 | Blogger: deepingfox's blog

Also got FAUGHEEN at 12/1 to win any race in November

Well he won at Punchestown on the 17th November so you should have been payed out already for that one.
Report JOCI Club March 12, 2014 6:12 PM GMT
4 winners today in Faugheen, Sire De Grugy, Balthazar King and Silver Concorde. Peed off with the RSA Chase with 2nd top rated Don Cossack falling and bringing down Many Clouds especially since O Faolins Boy won. In Istabraq Bar now then off to Bishops Cleeve curry house then to boozer for form study!
Report brandyontherocks March 12, 2014 6:17 PM GMT
Must be a fair few pints up after your bumper winner JOCI?
Report JOCI Club March 12, 2014 6:20 PM GMT
Working on it after fading badly in pub last night. Had set a target of 8 winners and have 7 so far so good going. I did draw a blank on Thursday last year though.
Report brandyontherocks March 12, 2014 6:26 PM GMT
Do you not do level stakes on your picks the JOCI?
Report JOCI Club March 12, 2014 6:30 PM GMT
Varying stakes. Did not fancy Sizing Australia that much so only small bet with bigger bet Balthazar King.
Report brandyontherocks March 12, 2014 6:35 PM GMT
Okey dokes. Fair play.

Even at level stakes your picks are still 6-7 pts up so fair play Love
Report Greg_Gory March 12, 2014 7:54 PM GMT
WD Joci Wink
Report deepingfox March 12, 2014 10:02 PM GMT
Hi Jockey, well done today.

What the betting line up tomorrow?

and who are your NAP and Next Best again?

Report JOCI Club March 13, 2014 11:34 AM GMT
1:30 Felix Yonger 81% Taquin de Seuil 81%
2:05 Utopie des Bordes 93% Mister Dillon 87% Uncle Jimmy 81%
2:40 Benefficient 94% Al Ferof 92%
3:20 At Fishers Cross 63% Big Bucks 63%
4:00 Third Intention 88% Shangani 87%
4:40 Twirling Magnet 86% Buddy Bolero 84% Same Difference 84%

Good luck all,
Report festivalfanatic March 13, 2014 12:05 PM GMT
Thanks JOCI - good luck.

Watching brief for me today.....I don't have a strong fancy for anything!
Report deepingfox March 13, 2014 12:43 PM GMT
Thanks JOCI, now for the walk to the track, good luck everyone.
Report Kingchip March 13, 2014 5:58 PM GMT
Keep the faith JOCI - tomorrow will be better for you
Report deepingfox March 13, 2014 9:52 PM GMT
Difficult Day 3, never my favourite card, but onwards and upwards with some strong fancies for Day 4.

2) Never Enough Time - 20/1 this morning.
3) Kings Palace - 20/1 back in October.
5) Certain Flight - 20/1 still available
6) The Skyfarmer (twisted Skyfarmer - god Im going to sing that prodigy tune if this one wins) - 25/1 taken on Sunday
7) Ned Buntline (in the hood 1st time) - 10/1 this morning.

What do the stats say JOCI, any hope for any of my bets?
Report deepingfox March 14, 2014 11:28 AM GMT
JOCI are you out there, with Day 4 selections, hope Thursday didn't break you.
Report JOCI Club March 14, 2014 11:55 AM GMT
1.30 Pearl castle87% Rutherglen 77%
Report JOCI Club March 14, 2014 12:00 PM GMT
2.05 Flaxen flare 93% Lac Fontana 87%
2.40 Kings Palace 93% Briar Hill 87%
3.20 bobs worth 88% Silviniaco C 79%
4.00 On the fringe 92% Harbour Ct 92% Divine Int 90%
4.40 Vieux Lion rouge 88% Virak 88%
5.15 Raya Star 77% Passge Vendome 69%
Report happyhibee March 14, 2014 12:02 PM GMT
Best of luck Joci Happy
Report deepingfox March 14, 2014 12:09 PM GMT
Thanks JOCI, and a big thanks for this week as a whole, hope we all share the luck out between us today,

Interesting to see you have Pipe up there for two more possible wins, could be top trainer isn't Mullins this year, and the Irishman is still odds on in that market.
Report JOCI Club March 14, 2014 11:45 PM GMT
Well folks, been home for a while now, and must admit I enjoyed this year's battle with the bookies. The weather was great, and I had more of my fair share of winners (beat my target of 8) even if things did tail off a bit on Thursday and Friday.

In the end, I managed 9 winners, spread as follows:

Tuesday 3
Wednesday 4
Thursday 1
Friday 1

Highlight was probably Quevega battling hard to win her 6th Mares Hurdle. Low point was RSA Chase, and Don Cossack bringing down Many Clouds, who would surely have gone close otherwise.

The trends came up with a 33% winning strike rate, which althpough down on last year, is still respectable. Will need to check through the facts, but it appeared as if quite a lot of 2nd top rated horses won this week.
Report Greg_Gory March 15, 2014 8:28 AM GMT
You did well Wink
Report Shrews March 15, 2014 5:12 PM GMT
Yes thanks Joci.  A Cheltenham thread to look forward to every year.  It seems like New Year starts in Mid-March not January nowadays and the festival seems a long way off but we all know that it'll be here before you know it.
Report bigH March 15, 2014 8:02 PM GMT
brilliant thread

well done Joci
Report bigpoppapump March 17, 2014 9:48 AM GMT
great work
Report illinois_riki March 17, 2014 8:23 PM GMT
Joci - many thanks for all the analysis - I can just about comprehend the amount of work it too.  Your trends analysis is always on my Must Read list
Report JOCI Club March 17, 2014 10:14 PM GMT
Thanks gents...under consideration is a trend attack on the major Aintree races!
Report gutfeeling March 17, 2014 10:16 PM GMT
Some excellent winners very well done,Glad all the work paid off Joci,
Hope you had a great 4 days racing & Best of luck for Aintree.
Report PeteTheBloke February 18, 2015 9:45 PM GMT

Just thought it would be interesting to look at last year's thread.
Report Lady Margaret February 19, 2015 5:11 PM GMT
Is JOCI doing a thread for 2015?
Report Lady Margaret February 19, 2015 5:12 PM GMT
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