Champagne Fever

Front runners in the Arkle?

what do you mean, poor record ?

nothing spectacular jumping wise was it, satisfactory, fiddled one or two, guessed at another, ok for starters and very helpful that he had absolutely no competition whatsover, an ok start though.

Yeah, they usually set it up for something coming from behind, though they do go close, e.g Ashley Brook, Finian's Rainbow.

Ok, not having it though. Its all about ability and the liking of the course.

You are saying in Sprint Sacre front run he would had lost, i think CF won the supreme in similar fashion.

No i'm not. Comparing horses with the likes of Sprinter Sacre and horses of that ilk is pointless. It's like comparing flat horses to Frankel. Their ability is way ahead of anything else.

Btw, I just asked the question .. that's all!

Top price 5/1 now?

Sorry sint, you make a valid point, i didnt mean to come across as a ****.

He did win the Supreme by front running so he clearly has the engine to do it. Just still haunted from Finian's Rainbow defeat when he set it up for the stayer Captain Chris.

Back to the trip guessing game with WPM ?


There are plenty of options including the Racing Post Novice Chase over 2m1f at Leopardstown next month, according to Mullins.

He said: "He was able to go short and long and I think it was just lack of concentration at the second-last. We'll likely drop back to the shorter trip at Leopardstown. He'll have no problem going further.

So, wins at 20f, being dropped back to 17f next time out, but will stay further than the trip he won at today.

Considering he won over 2m at the festival it would be crazy to do anything else, but then again he ran in the supreme because of the over rating of other stable mates in the other races.

ibrahima,same camp as you my friend.worthy fav for the arkle imo
bumper,supreme,and arkle.lets not even consider the Jewson.With its style of racing its aggresive a no brainer for me THE ARKLE.Im happy to keep putting my few quid a week on so come march ive got a tasty bet riding.

Always very difficult to know what they run in what but they normally give their best one his best race. Can see CF at head of queue. Arkle imo. His liking for Cheltenham a big plus. A long long way to go but if he stays sound will be very hard to beat.

never seen a hoss more suited to Cheltenham than this lad

Can't see why he shortened in the betting after that race. All he proved is that he can jump ok, and beat inferior opposition over 2.5 miles. Nothing like the conditions he'll face in March. His great Cheltenham & Festival record was already factored into his relatively short price.

grandouet and whisky not been clever though so see why he;s shortened since season start

JOCI - I understand your point but like Howdi I think it is more about the lack of real competition. Personally I think the 2nd best 2m novice is Defy Logic and really hoping he does not disappoint tomorrow.

I'd have thought he'd have shortened prior to the race if it was due to OW and Grandouet being unimpressive in their debut runs.

It wasn't much of a test for a horse of this quality. He jumped well enough..clever at the 3rd when he got in too close and clumsy near the end when he put down on Ruby. What I really like about him is his attitude - points his toe (hoof!) and really grabs the ground - and just loves the game. Time was decent enough too.

Assuming all goes well, he will probably be entered in all 3 Festival novice chases but unless Ricci has something better for the Arkle, then I expect to see him in the blue riband event.

your first sentence was my whole point hayling

Well he can jump a fence ok,but no nearer knowing his race for the festival imo.
Watching that race yesterday it looked more like a trial for an RSA than an Arkle.Had the 2nd not smashed a fence he would have been a lot closer and he is definitely a stayer.
Would be very careful taking current odds for the Arkle without a nrfb option.

What makes you think it looked an RSA trial budd? I don't think it looked a trial for anything,just a school in public and a nice introduction to racecourse fences.

WPM says his next outing is likely to be over 2 miles 1 furlong at Leopardstown. He certainly does stay but has bags of pace too. You can't win a Supreme if you aren't quick. In any event, jumping 12 fences over 2 miles is much more demanding physically than jumping 8 hurdles.

I was watching then 2nd all the way round as ive got big odds on him for the RSA,and he ran a race like I would expect an RSA horse to.
I also watched Defy Logic the other day and ive watched Balder Success,and those 2 looked like Arkle horses,winning well and jumping well over the Arkle distance.
That yesterday looked totally different to me.
I aint saying CF wont be an Arkle horse,just don't think its clear which race he will be in,but I do think his optimum distance is further than 2m.
Of course he could still win an Arkle as others that stay further have,but its my thinking that we could well have some fast 2 milers to face next March,and his odds for me are not worth taking without some insurance.

Also another thing to consider is should Defy Logic be in the line up,CF wont lead.
How would that suit him?...I don't know!!

festivalfanatic 17 Nov 13 08:12 Joined: 20 Feb 11 | Topic/replies: 1,160 | Blogger: festivalfanatic's blog
What makes you think it looked an RSA trial budd? I don't think it looked a trial for anything,just a school in public and a nice introduction to racecourse fences.

WPM says his next outing is likely to be over 2 miles 1 furlong at Leopardstown. He certainly does stay but has bags of pace too. You can't win a Supreme if you aren't quick. In any event, jumping 12 fences over 2 miles is much more demanding physically than jumping 8 hurdles.

I wouldn't say Al Ferof was particularly quick. He stayed on strongly rather than quickening.

Well I expect this slowcoach, who seemingly fluked both a Champion Bumper and Surpeme to contest the Arkle and it wouldn't be a major surprise if he fluked that too.

No idea why you're saying that Festivalfanatic. Chasing is completely different. If you think he's a cert for the Arkle ... LUMP ON.

No such thing as a certainty at the Festival and he needs both luck to get there. What race do you think he will contest, assuming he is fit and well?

I would think he'll run in the Arkle, it is worth more prize money and is the more prestigious race, but whether or not that is the right race for him we'll have to see, also from a betting perspective I would want to take the current prices. Clearly if he beats decent opposition over 2 miles then he'll be 5/2 but that's just the way it is!

* would not want to take current prices

Surely Felix Yonger will go for one of the longer races. Would be very surprised if CF does not go for the Arkle

well FY has just won over 2m beating a fair opponent,CF won over 2 and a halfm.

I wouldn't look to deeply into the trip Champagne Fever ran over the other day. It was over further than the Arkle trip but against inferior opposition the extra half mile was never going to be a bother.
I think he will stay much further than 2 miles but will be surprised if he doesn't line up in the Arkle come March.

Sizing Europe & Moscow Flyer were previous winners of the race Felix Yonger won today.

just saying Brandy

Those two winners were also the last 8 year olds to win the race in the last 22 runnings. The same age Felix will be

I would not be totally surprised if CF struggles again in soft ground in the winter time. I just hope his jumping and confidence hasn't been affected come March.

I would think he'll run in the Arkle, it is worth more prize money and is the more prestigious race, but whether or not that is the right race for him we'll have to see, also from a betting perspective I would want to take the current prices. Clearly if he beats decent opposition over 2 miles then he'll be 5/2 but that's just the way it is! 

sint

If this horse beats decent opposition over 2 miles at Christmas he will be 5/4, not 5/2. There is a 3 in 10 chance he won't make it to Cheltenham due to injury. I just don't see the arguments against him regsrding trip. Always going to be a better chaser than a bumper horse or hurdler. The only reasons that I can see that he won't appear in the Arkle are injury or Ricci has something better (God forbid!). This owner is in for the glory. IMO, the Arkle is the 4th most prestigous race at the meeting. Why the feck would he want to go for the Jewson or RSA?

Sorry lads an lassies - should have been previous reference to sin My IT skills aren't the best but go steady...I'm an old feck!

No way he'd be 5/4 imo. It takes something extraordinary to go from 5/1 into 5/4.

Im sure he can and will win at 2 miles next time out but I dont think he is unbeatable, FF. He's quite exuberant by nature, we've seen that in his bumpers & hurdles. He is the best horse in the race on all known evidence but i'd rather wait and see him over 2 miles at a quick pace jumping fences tbh.He wasn't foot perfect yesterday imo. Other people disagree strongly, e.g Korral who go 3/1.

take it as read ff we know you have limitations that you can't help.

It was nothing more than satisfactory.

Personally, I hope Harrington makes the right decision and gets the Arkle winner over fences asap.

take it as read ff we know you have limitations that you can't help. 

Carer has arrived H thank goodness!

FF,
Maybe as the season progresses They will realise that CF has more chance of winning a Jewson or RSA.
Really don't know,and that's why all along ive been saying his price has not been value.
His stable mate has just beaten a darn good horse(imo)over 2m, and is three times the price.
Crazy!!! But good

Champagne Fever, 2nd in 2013 Arkle, winner 2015 gold cup you heard it here first

*2014 Arkle

But surely the most logical bet here is if you think 5/1 is value for the Arkle, then 7/2 to win any race at the festival could very well look very tasty come March 11th! As added insurance no I think this could well end up odds on by race date, have already had some of 16s DB as i cannot see anything else in the race that has really impressed my eye so far. I know it is rather early in the season and horses can improve etc and we still have not seen all of them out yet either.

budd

Truth is there is absolutely no value in backing AP whatever the price unless you know for sure that a horse will take its chance in a particular race. From that perspective, none of the novice events will be attracting much professional money. I am a small stakes mug however and strangely enjoy the emotional turmoil!

CF will be entered in all 3 novice chases and I have little doubt that he would be competitive in any of them. Willie describes his jumping as 'electric' which presumably means fast, which coupled with his course form over 2 miles makes the Arkle by far the most likely target to me.

But surely the most logical bet here is if you think 5/1 is value for the Arkle, then 7/2 to win any race at the festival could very well look very tasty come March 11th! As added insurance no I think this could well end up odds on by race date, have already had some of 16s DB as i cannot see anything else in the race that has really impressed my eye so far. I know it is rather early in the season and horses can improve etc and we still have not seen all of them out yet either.

Thanks STS. Have just availed myself of the Hills offer. Don't think it will last long - Corals go 3/1 for the Arkle only and is clearly much better value than the 5/1 best available!

I totally agree FF,
that's why I only do nrfb at what I consider to be a good price,and like you I don't go mad.
I also don't mind taking prices on here as long as they are big prices!!

I really think CF's target is currently unknown and anyone taking prices on any of the 3 races at the festival is mad imo.Its also very competitive this season in all 3 nov chases from what ive seen, and its only November!!

I wonder what Ruby has said as re Felix and Champagne,hes just rode them both this weekend.

Felix Yonger certainly complicates matters and a different owner too.

walsh on champagne fever

I was very impressed with Champagne Fever at Punchestown at the weekend. Rogue Angel kept me honest. We went a really good gallop and he kept taking me on. I loved the way Champagne Fever went about his business. Even when he made a mistake, or got a fence wrong, he went to the next one and attacked it.

He loves what he is doing, he has a huge cruising speed, is a long-striding horse and would be better going left-handed. He is a horse I like a lot and I have a soft spot for him, but of all my mounts over the weekend Faugheen was the most impressive.

Not heard a quote from him re Felix though.
Wonder why??

ye strange would of been nice

5/1 with vc non runner free bet absolute stand out bet imo if you can get on

why would you not get on?

Best price 4/1 now. Still 7/2 with Hills to win any race. Just taken a bit more of that.

Blimey FF,what price you think he will be on the day in his chosen race?? 7/2 in November??
it is a very competitive year for nov chasers imo

Blimey FF,what price you think he will be on the day in his chosen race?? 7/2 in November??
it is a very competitive year for nov chasers imo

Very short....probably odds on.

Fair enough,think that's a tad dismissive of some decent novices myself,but time will tell.

I would agree with FF on the price. There may be some good novices around but I reckon WM has some of them!

budd, you think the Arkle looks competitive at this stage. I don't share that view. Having said that, 4/1 is a crazy price given that there is a 30% chance that he won't make the meet, never mind run in this race! Fair play to cammy though - he thought 8/1 was big and he can have a free bet at 4's if he so chooses. If suspect though that if he punts like he posts, his dick will be out of the window until March!

so the Arkle is all over in November won by a horse that aint run a chase over the Arkle distance!!

of course its competitive,weve had plenty of horses out that have run well over 2m and jumped well,some more than once.
still dismiss them all,and I hope plenty more think like that,suits those looking for value imo.

Where have I said it's all over?

ok,but you did say he will probably be odds on and it aint competitive!!

I don't believe the Arkle does look competitive at this stage (isn't that what forums are for, expressing opinions?) and if he runs on the day, I think he will be very short. As far as I know, only one Champion bumper winner has ever won the Supreme and he never jumped a fence in public. As CF looks every inch a chaser (whilst Montelado certainly did not), I expect (hope!) that he will be at least as good in that sphere.

of course its opinions,fair enough,but we have no idea how good some of these novices are going to be next March.

We all know CF is a Cheltenham horse and hes a chaser alright and I can see why hes fancied,but their are a few others that could well be major threats come March.

With you there Budd, Dodging Bullets is just one example within the could improve for fences to be anything category and has won over the Arkle course and distance, on at 16s

We haven't really seen Grandouet yet, unseating at the last, didn't see the race and will need to view to make an opinion but both he and Hinterland could be anything

There is just 3 examples. The Arkle really could prove to be a competitive race in March. Or it could all unravel as March gets closer. Who knows

Could see Dodging Bullets running well but he's been found out the past festivals when he's come up against the best of his division. He was 50 lengths behind Champagne Fever in the Supreme, where he was probably below his best, but I just don't think he's a Grade 1 horse.

I agree with FF that there doesn't look to be a whole host of potential Arkle horses around. This could well change with the big meetings at Christmas still to come but Willie Mullins looks to hold all the aces at the moment with Champagne Fever and Felix Yonger. I've an each way bet on Defy Logic and haven't given up on that yet. He was blowing very hard after his defeat to Punchestown and I get the feeling he didn't perform up to scratch. That being said, Felix Yonger beat him well.

Taquin Du Seuil is a better horse than Dodging Bullets. Interesting where he runs next.

I was impressed by TDS when he beat OW. Ground probably plenty quick enough and conceding weight. 3 furlong sprint should have favoured OW! Interesting quandary. Jonjo sees TDS as an Arkle horse but he clearly stays further. Not sure DB would get the extended trip of the Jewson. Lot of water to flow under the bridge before the owners have to make a decision.

FF - thanks for highlighting the WH to win any race bet, hadn't seen that.

No probs bb....it was another poster who brought it to my attention. Quite attractive for those wanting to back the Mullins horses without the usual roller coaster fews days leading up to the meeting.

Quite attractive for those wanting to back the Mullins horses without the usual roller coaster fews days leading up to the meeting.

CF now 4/1 with only 3 bookmakers. All the rest 7/2 with Corals at 3/1. Price to win any race with Billy's has contracted from 7/2 to 3/1.

Coral's ante-post prices are appalling. I ask anyone to have a look at ANY of their ante-post markets for any race, flat or jumps, and just do a comparison across a few races. Very rarely are they standalone with a price, and the majority of horses are closer to the bottom price than middle or high. Genuinely appalling ante-post prices from them to my eye.

i also think that he will go off very short was it 6-4 pont alexander went off?? and he wasn't a 2 time festival winner

Shorter the better as far as I am concerned,ive seen a few others that could be real good come March,so a bigger price for them will be most welcome

Ricci confirmed yesterday that the Racing Post Novice Chase is his definite next target. Interesting to see if Felix turns up as well

FY in 5 day decs for Navan on Saturday.

7/2 best price now and the Magic Sign going 3/1. He's either way over hyped or blowing them away at home. He won't be working with telegraph poles for sure.

GET ON THIS MONSTER,I WAS IMPRESSED WITH 1ST RUN AS EX 1/2 MILE WAS EASIER INTRO FOR THE HORSE AS THEY WUD OF BEEN A PACE SLOWER AND WILL BE MORE CUED IN NEXT TIME AND HAS NO PROB WITH 2M OR BETTER GROUND AS HAS 2 WINS AT CHELT AT 2M ON BETTER GROUND..AND DONT SEE ANYTHING TO TROUBLE THIS FELLOW IN THIS DIVISION AS LONG AS HE GET'S THERE IN GOOD HEALTH AND JUMP'S ROUND WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT

He will without doubt go for the Arkle, Mullins has said as much ( not that that means much ) Ruby is more then happy this guy has the gears. Its incredible to me that people actually think this fellas slow or needs a trip . He s won the bumper and beat MTOY in the supreme. Of course he would stay 3 mile but has so much quality 2 is no issue. Along side that the arkle is well known to suit horses who stay 2m 1/2 mile ... my way de solzen and Tidal Bay spring to mind. CF being an ex pointer is really bread for a fence and I know Mullins has been schooling him at home for 2 years, he was jumping fences even as a bumper horse.Along with Un De Sceaux CF is his horse to follow this season.Expect him to run once over xmas and maybe once early in the new year then arkle.Confidence couldn't be higher and WM and Ruby have enough machines to know one.As always with the Jewson around expect a small field of 7 to 10 runners. Looking at the betting I can see 4 or 5 of the front 8 in the betting going Jewson . I can imagine this fella going off very short, quite possibly odds on. Ive been taking 13-2 down and I ll stop when the times right which isnt yet...good luck all.

Has not been headed for two festivals

I think MTOY just headed him before the last in the supreme but he was back in front where it mattered.

Yes Eternal correct

He didn't lead for the first furlong or so in the champion bumper either

I know Decalec wont be watching at the weekend,judging by his post above, but I think it could be very informative as to whether CF is such a good thing for the Arkle.
All his main rivals in the betting right now seem to be entered here and in Ireland.

y wont i be watching budd