Cheltenham Festival
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16 Nov 13
13:05
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Date Joined:
03 Jun 07
They were not lying when they said he could jump a fence.
Roll on march, where we can already form a queue
Roll on march, where we can already form a queue
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Front runners in the Arkle?
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what do you mean, poor record ?
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nothing spectacular jumping wise was it, satisfactory, fiddled one or two, guessed at another, ok for starters and very helpful that he had absolutely no competition whatsover, an ok start though.
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Yeah, they usually set it up for something coming from behind, though they do go close, e.g Ashley Brook, Finian's Rainbow.
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Ok, not having it though. Its all about ability and the liking of the course.
You are saying in Sprint Sacre front run he would had lost, i think CF won the supreme in similar fashion. |
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No i'm not. Comparing horses with the likes of Sprinter Sacre and horses of that ilk is pointless. It's like comparing flat horses to Frankel. Their ability is way ahead of anything else.
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Btw, I just asked the question .. that's all!
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Top price 5/1 now?
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Sorry sint, you make a valid point, i didnt mean to come across as a ****.
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He did win the Supreme by front running so he clearly has the engine to do it. Just still haunted from Finian's Rainbow defeat when he set it up for the stayer Captain Chris.
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Back to the trip guessing game with WPM ?
There are plenty of options including the Racing Post Novice Chase over 2m1f at Leopardstown next month, according to Mullins. He said: "He was able to go short and long and I think it was just lack of concentration at the second-last. We'll likely drop back to the shorter trip at Leopardstown. He'll have no problem going further. So, wins at 20f, being dropped back to 17f next time out, but will stay further than the trip he won at today. |
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Considering he won over 2m at the festival it would be crazy to do anything else, but then again he ran in the supreme because of the over rating of other stable mates in the other races.
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ibrahima,same camp as you my friend.worthy fav for the arkle imo
bumper,supreme,and arkle.lets not even consider the Jewson.With its style of racing its aggresive a no brainer for me THE ARKLE.Im happy to keep putting my few quid a week on so come march ive got a tasty bet riding. |
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Always very difficult to know what they run in what but they normally give their best one his best race. Can see CF at head of queue. Arkle imo. His liking for Cheltenham a big plus. A long long way to go but if he stays sound will be very hard to beat.
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never seen a hoss more suited to Cheltenham than this lad
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Can't see why he shortened in the betting after that race. All he proved is that he can jump ok, and beat inferior opposition over 2.5 miles. Nothing like the conditions he'll face in March. His great Cheltenham & Festival record was already factored into his relatively short price.
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grandouet and whisky not been clever though so see why he;s shortened since season start
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JOCI - I understand your point but like Howdi I think it is more about the lack of real competition. Personally I think the 2nd best 2m novice is Defy Logic and really hoping he does not disappoint tomorrow.
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I'd have thought he'd have shortened prior to the race if it was due to OW and Grandouet being unimpressive in their debut runs.
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It wasn't much of a test for a horse of this quality. He jumped well enough..clever at the 3rd when he got in too close and clumsy near the end when he put down on Ruby. What I really like about him is his attitude - points his toe (hoof!) and really grabs the ground - and just loves the game. Time was decent enough too.
Assuming all goes well, he will probably be entered in all 3 Festival novice chases but unless Ricci has something better for the Arkle, then I expect to see him in the blue riband event. |
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your first sentence was my whole point hayling
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Well he can jump a fence ok,but no nearer knowing his race for the festival imo.
Watching that race yesterday it looked more like a trial for an RSA than an Arkle.Had the 2nd not smashed a fence he would have been a lot closer and he is definitely a stayer. Would be very careful taking current odds for the Arkle without a nrfb option. |
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What makes you think it looked an RSA trial budd? I don't think it looked a trial for anything,just a school in public and a nice introduction to racecourse fences.
WPM says his next outing is likely to be over 2 miles 1 furlong at Leopardstown. He certainly does stay but has bags of pace too. You can't win a Supreme if you aren't quick. In any event, jumping 12 fences over 2 miles is much more demanding physically than jumping 8 hurdles. |
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I was watching then 2nd all the way round as ive got big odds on him for the RSA,and he ran a race like I would expect an RSA horse to.
I also watched Defy Logic the other day and ive watched Balder Success,and those 2 looked like Arkle horses,winning well and jumping well over the Arkle distance. That yesterday looked totally different to me. I aint saying CF wont be an Arkle horse,just don't think its clear which race he will be in,but I do think his optimum distance is further than 2m. Of course he could still win an Arkle as others that stay further have,but its my thinking that we could well have some fast 2 milers to face next March,and his odds for me are not worth taking without some insurance. |
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Also another thing to consider is should Defy Logic be in the line up,CF wont lead.
How would that suit him?...I don't know!! |
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festivalfanatic 17 Nov 13 08:12 Joined: 20 Feb 11 | Topic/replies: 1,160 | Blogger: festivalfanatic's blog
What makes you think it looked an RSA trial budd? I don't think it looked a trial for anything,just a school in public and a nice introduction to racecourse fences. WPM says his next outing is likely to be over 2 miles 1 furlong at Leopardstown. He certainly does stay but has bags of pace too. You can't win a Supreme if you aren't quick. In any event, jumping 12 fences over 2 miles is much more demanding physically than jumping 8 hurdles. I wouldn't say Al Ferof was particularly quick. He stayed on strongly rather than quickening. |
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Well I expect this slowcoach, who seemingly fluked both a Champion Bumper and Surpeme to contest the Arkle and it wouldn't be a major surprise if he fluked that too.
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No idea why you're saying that Festivalfanatic. Chasing is completely different. If you think he's a cert for the Arkle ... LUMP ON.
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No such thing as a certainty at the Festival and he needs both luck to get there. What race do you think he will contest, assuming he is fit and well?
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I would think he'll run in the Arkle, it is worth more prize money and is the more prestigious race, but whether or not that is the right race for him we'll have to see, also from a betting perspective I would want to take the current prices. Clearly if he beats decent opposition over 2 miles then he'll be 5/2 but that's just the way it is!
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* would not want to take current prices
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Surely Felix Yonger will go for one of the longer races. Would be very surprised if CF does not go for the Arkle
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well FY has just won over 2m beating a fair opponent,CF won over 2 and a halfm.
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I wouldn't look to deeply into the trip Champagne Fever ran over the other day. It was over further than the Arkle trip but against inferior opposition the extra half mile was never going to be a bother.
I think he will stay much further than 2 miles but will be surprised if he doesn't line up in the Arkle come March. |
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Sizing Europe & Moscow Flyer were previous winners of the race Felix Yonger won today.
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just saying Brandy
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Those two winners were also the last 8 year olds to win the race in the last 22 runnings. The same age Felix will be
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I would not be totally surprised if CF struggles again in soft ground in the winter time. I just hope his jumping and confidence hasn't been affected come March.
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I would think he'll run in the Arkle, it is worth more prize money and is the more prestigious race, but whether or not that is the right race for him we'll have to see, also from a betting perspective I would want to take the current prices. Clearly if he beats decent opposition over 2 miles then he'll be 5/2 but that's just the way it is!
sint If this horse beats decent opposition over 2 miles at Christmas he will be 5/4, not 5/2. There is a 3 in 10 chance he won't make it to Cheltenham due to injury. I just don't see the arguments against him regsrding trip. Always going to be a better chaser than a bumper horse or hurdler. The only reasons that I can see that he won't appear in the Arkle are injury or Ricci has something better (God forbid!). This owner is in for the glory. IMO, the Arkle is the 4th most prestigous race at the meeting. Why the feck would he want to go for the Jewson or RSA? |