Cheltenham Festival
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Great to see him back & well today. Showed real tenacity after slipping on the bend and making a mess of 2 out. Unlikely to get the ground he'd probably need to win what could be a vintage CH, but certainly deserves to be in the mix. It'll be interesting to see where he runs next. Fair play to the owners who turned-down big money offers for him, good to see their faith rewarded.
To be honest, a mark of 150 was pretty lenient given how he won the Tolworth, but not as generous as today's SP!
To be honest, a mark of 150 was pretty lenient given how he won the Tolworth, but not as generous as today's SP!
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Dont think ground is that important to him, won on and g/s, and on a testing track and a speed track. High cruising speed and jumps so slickly.
Might be just, that he is very good. |
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missed the race would have piled in to 9-2 ffs
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Have to admit that I've underestimated this horse in the past, but I wont now. 25/1 nrfb with VC is fair value Imo.
If he had higher profile connections, he's be half that price. On a line through Far West, he's not too far off Our Conor. Fair do's Our Conor smashed Far West, but today MR didnt have a clean run, was giving weight away and first run back after an injury. |
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Was at wincanton today & was all over him at 9/2. He may not win the CH bit FairPlay to the owners
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Was at wincanton today & was all over him at 9/2. He may not win the CH bit FairPlay to the owners
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Nice pint at the aftertimers arms.
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Bollox to you pal, where we're you today?
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Didn't have a bet in the race but when I was watching it and Rishi was waxing lyrical about how today might not be the day and that the trainer said he'd come on a ton for it I thought, oy oy.
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Scott's horses have been going close recently and Melodic is the best horse he has so looked a no brainer with Nicholls' horses not going well. I don't come on here to boast about being a smart arse, I'm just interested in others opinions.
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I reckon the international would be a logical next step for him to see how he fares against proper CH horses, probably TNO will run in that, I can't see him being quick enough for a CH myself, looks a stayer, just like last years winner of this race was
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Yep, he's a grinder, but grinders do win CHs. TNO looks a more likely sort with his turn of foot, but if it's soft or worse Melodic would have a big chance. Sounds like they'll send him chasing as soon as he loses over hurdles though.
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"It was a good performance off top-weight. I've always loved him. They've always wondered if he was a soft-ground specialist. He won the Tolworth on heavy, he won the Challow on heavy, but he's won that on good to soft and I think he'll be fine on better ground - he's got gears.
"It will be a decision for Jeremy and the owners as to where they go next. He's jumped a fence before so we know that's not a problem but if we stay over hurdles there are options like Newcastlle and the Gerry Feilden for him." Well,never had a bet yesterday,always wary when they come back after injury,but was really pleased with that. Got nice odds both for the CH and the Arkle and thought after yesterday I would know which bet was gone, but after reading that above,not sure at all!! Whatever happens though I do think hes a real genuine racehorse who is certainly on the up. Hes definitely in the CH picture now,and still available at a lot bigger odds than some of the other novices from last season,just a shame he got injured and missed the festival,although had he gone to the festival I suspect his prices would be shorter right now. Really like this horse,and hope they remain over hurdles,but should they go chasing I suspect that means they like his jumping. Main thing is hes come back well,and for me I have a player at the festival....hopefully!! |
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Not sure he is a grinder, if that is what you call it. He has a high cruising speed and a turn of foot.
Not sure a grinder can win around a speed track on their debut. & he doesnt need soft ground, most CH winners stay 2m4f. |
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Yeh,totally agree,he has what it takes to be a threat in the top 2m races imo, just a case of how good enough he ends up.Hes a fair amount of improvement to come I would think, which of course he would need to figure in a CH.
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I decided to take the 25's last night for the CH. Surprised that the bookies only clipped him in 8 points from 33's to 25's.
If he was only 70% fit, then i think there's a lot more to come. If he'd got beat yesterday I think they might have gone chasing, but not now. |
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Massively overpriced considering he still has potential to be even better, if he was trained by henderson he would be single figures.
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He'll make hell of a chaser when they decide to.
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Just watched the race again and it was all happening plenty quick enough for him. He will be suited by softer ground and/or a stiffer track. Still inexperienced and plenty of improvement to come given the right conditions. Displayed a very good attitude after getting the second last all wrong.
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Just watched the race again and it was all happening plenty quick enough for him. He will be suited by softer ground and/or a stiffer track. Still inexperienced and plenty of improvement to come given the right conditions. Displayed a very good attitude after getting the second last all wrong.
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I thought his performance at sandown was top class, could had won by any distance.
He will love cheltenham and a fast pace. |
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zarkander is a grinder and won the same race, can't possibly have MR keeping tabs on the speedier types, he was also competing in a very poor renewel of this race yesterday.
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He's been beaten by mr. mole and then beat pendra in a bog, then beat a not right puffin billy in a bog who hasn't done much for the form since and finally beat far west in a sub standard elite hurdle who is far from top drawer, and considering we are talking about a CH that this year is the strongest for years, if he was trained by a top trainer or not, single figures for this horse on the form to date would be utterly ridiculous.
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Well until he does something wrong or has a bad day at the office,to me he remains a threat and a horse with any amount of improvement.
Not his fault he was entered in the race, and he could do no more than that yesterday,especially 1st time back after a long lay off and injury. Will be a lot fitter nto and is value imo compared to the talking horses(so to speak)at shorter odds. |
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Far West is a good yardstick to measure him.
Giving him weight, the slight slip and coming back from injury is a good performance. When Far West ran in the Triumph it as the end of a long season, as he's been running since October, where he was fresh yesterday. |
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I don't think they are talking horses because pretty much all the main protagonists have done it on the big stage, certainly compared to MR they have anyhow, he'd actually suit the talking horse tag, because as yet he's not done it, certainly not in terms of being talked up as a CH hope, I know it isn't his fault where he runs, but watching his style of racing suggests quite strongly that he is a horse that will want further and lack the pace of proper champion horses,, can he really finish in front of all TNO, MTOY'S, HF, OC, and JEZ, and on top of that he'll probably have to do it on good ground, certainly not a bog anyhow,he's a very promising horse of course but imo on what his form is to date and the opposition waiting for him coupled with the impression he gives....double figures is right.
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Can agree the Elite was sub standard yesterday, it has always been this average. Are you saying Nearby and Chomba Womba are better than MR
  I dont think the CH is as strong as you think, already looks a 6 horse race and a few of them have to prove themselves this season. Personally i dont think their was anything wrong with puffin billy that 'day' |
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I was more referring to their odds duffy, and people talking them up was more what I meant. I'm of the opinion that MR would have gone real close in the Supreme, but of course its only my opinion.
Wont be good ground on the Tuesday,well highly unlikely anyway,and i'm not convinced he needs soft anyway,yes it may slow others who don't act on it as well,but hes won ok yesterday on good/soft,and will run quicker on better ground as most horses do. Personally I think the odds should be closer between him and the other novices from last season,but I aint worrying about it,i love it when odds are too big...imo of course.Although in MR's case I have far bigger than 20 odd!! Just sticking up for the horse,hes done nothing wrong to date,and is on the up. |
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B365 have him at 14/1 and I think that is more realistic a price than the 25's available.
Agree with Budd, and I cant see why he's 3 times the price of Jezki? |
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fair point Budd, starting to boil up nicely already.
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Indeed it is my friend
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i wouldn't be so quick to jump down the horse's throat duffy...
i had reservations yesterday about the horses chances as thought it was a tough ask off 150 but for me he did it quite easy...he is a very difficult horse for me to come round to from a form perspective but once again the horse done the talking...agree he still has plenty to find to get involved in top company but yesterday marked him down as a 160 horse and for a starting point he could do no more...i still need to see him against top horses as yesterdays bunch were just decent handicappers, he could do no more off top weight however...he is still improving and i think there are far worse 25-1 pokes around tbf and if progressing again i could see him getting in the money in the champ hurdle with decent progression...i haven't backed him as yet as want to see more i do however definitely respect now his next run will tell us more |
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One slight other concern, how much of a fly in the ointment is it the potential chasing career, does it mean that he is going to have to really do the business in no uncertain style in order to stay over hurdles, are they looking for a reason to send him chasing or are they looking for a reason to keep him hurdling, his next race really will be a telling one, scott talks about being well handicapped over hurdles and wanted to run him yesterday to exploit it but still wasn't sure whether he was and said that if it didn't work out yesterday that would be it and he'd go chasing, he's earned a stay of execution
 on that score but the next race will have to come quick against the big boys in order to get a satisfactory chasing career started for the rest of the season,and really will be judgement day. |
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Glossy 09 Nov 13 23:46 Joined: 22 Feb 09 | Topic/replies: 14,760 | Blogger: Glossy's blog
Nice pint at the aftertimers arms. I was looking forward to reading this thread but it started with an aftertime and then another appeared during it. Disappointing. |
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Surely you are big enough to pass over Howdi's aftertiming Sint, and enjoy the thread
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Nice horse. Couldn't get too excited by that performance in terms of a champion hurdle. He'll be 8 in March. Sure there aren't that many miles on the clock but he's still pretty much fully matured. Beating a four year old by just over a length who was trounced in the Triumph and we still don't know how good the winner of that race is? You wouldn't usually entertain a five year old for the champion so why would you go overboard about a 7 year old just beating a 4 year old giving four pounds nearly five months away from the big day? Cotton Mill on the day beaten a little more than he was by My Tent at Newbury but receiving less weight and beaten absolutely hollow that day.
Not for me. |
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sintonian 10 Nov 13 20:44 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 21,971 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
Glossy 09 Nov 13 23:46 Joined: 22 Feb 09 | Topic/replies: 14,760 | Blogger: Glossy's blog Nice pint at the aftertimers arms. I was looking forward to reading this thread but it started with an aftertime and then another appeared during it. Disappointing. Don't remember saying I backed him, just that the price was generous. I really like this horse and was pleased to see him win. I've had a bit of the 25's for the CH, although MTOY is my number one arrow in that particular quiver. |
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....although I'm on MTOY @ 10s, so there's an aftertime of sorts!
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Whose going overboard??
We all know he has to improve,and considering all the facts it was a pretty good performance Saturday. Aint seen anyone saying hes a good thing for the CHurdle. Its just a discussion on his merits and how he might do in the future,and whether his current price may be value compared to others. |
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Not sure this was a sub standard Elite - think Far West is a decent yardstick - lot of the horses behind it in the Triumph have won since ,( Diakali, Sametegal , Lac Fontana - Chris Pea Green was 2nd behind Pine Creek at Ascot etc )so clearly no mug even though only 4 years old - Melodic Rendezvous has beaten was was in front of him and whilst he is not spectatcular think he will be highly competitive over 2m in the soft. If the ground came up good at Cheltenham it would all be too quick for him.Given that he is already 7 I would like to see them go novice chasing and have a crack at the Arkle.
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