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Mystic Wind
09 Nov 13 18:53
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Date Joined: 21 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 412 | Blogger: Mystic Wind's blog
Great to see him back & well today. Showed real tenacity after slipping on the bend and making a mess of 2 out. Unlikely to get the ground he'd probably need to win what could be a vintage CH, but certainly deserves to be in the mix. It'll be interesting to see where he runs next. Fair play to the owners who turned-down big money offers for him, good to see their faith rewarded.

To be honest, a mark of 150 was pretty lenient given how he won the Tolworth, but not as generous as today's SP!
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Report duffy November 10, 2013 12:33 PM GMT
He's been beaten by mr. mole and then beat pendra in a bog, then beat a not right puffin billy in a bog who hasn't done much for the form since and finally beat far west in a sub standard elite hurdle who is far from top drawer, and considering we are talking about a CH that this year is the strongest for years, if he was trained by a top trainer or not, single figures for this horse on the form to date would be utterly ridiculous.
Report buddeliea November 10, 2013 12:36 PM GMT
Well until he does something wrong or has a bad day at the office,to me he remains a threat and a horse with any amount of improvement.
Not his fault he was entered in the race, and he could do no more than that yesterday,especially 1st time back after a long lay off and injury. Will be a lot fitter nto and is value imo compared to the talking horses(so to speak)at shorter odds.
Report wellchief November 10, 2013 12:54 PM GMT
Far West is a good yardstick to measure him.

Giving him weight, the slight slip and coming back from injury is a good performance. When Far West ran in the Triumph it as the end of a long season, as he's been running since October, where he was fresh yesterday.
Report duffy November 10, 2013 1:00 PM GMT
I don't think they are talking horses because pretty much all the main protagonists have done it on the big stage, certainly compared to MR they have anyhow, he'd actually suit the talking horse tag, because as yet he's not done it, certainly not in terms of being talked up as a CH hope, I know it isn't his fault where he runs, but watching his style of racing suggests quite strongly that he is a horse that will want further and lack the pace of proper champion horses,, can he really finish in front of all TNO, MTOY'S, HF, OC, and JEZ, and on top of that he'll probably have to do it on good ground, certainly not a bog anyhow,he's a very promising horse of course but imo on what his form is to date and the opposition waiting for him coupled with the impression he gives....double figures is right.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 10, 2013 1:09 PM GMT
Can agree the Elite was sub standard yesterday, it has always been this average. Are you saying Nearby and Chomba Womba are better than MR Confused Wink

I dont think the CH is as strong as you think, already looks a 6 horse race and a few of them have to prove themselves this season.

Personally i dont think their was anything wrong with puffin billy that 'day'
Report buddeliea November 10, 2013 1:11 PM GMT
I was more referring to their odds duffy, and people talking them up was more what I meant. I'm of the opinion that MR would have gone real close in the Supreme, but of course its only my opinion.
Wont be good ground on the Tuesday,well highly unlikely anyway,and i'm not convinced he needs soft anyway,yes it may slow others who don't act on it as well,but hes won ok yesterday on good/soft,and will run quicker on better ground as most horses do.
Personally I think the odds should be closer between him and the other novices from last season,but I aint worrying about it,i love it when odds are too big...imo of course.Although in MR's case I have far bigger than 20 odd!!
Just sticking up for the horse,hes done nothing wrong to date,and is on the up.
Report wellchief November 10, 2013 1:15 PM GMT
B365 have him at 14/1 and I think that is more realistic a price than the 25's available.

Agree with Budd, and I cant see why he's 3 times the price of Jezki?
Report duffy November 10, 2013 1:16 PM GMT
fair point Budd, starting to boil up nicely already. Happy
Report buddeliea November 10, 2013 1:22 PM GMT
Indeed it is my friend
Report harry callaghan November 10, 2013 1:24 PM GMT
i wouldn't be so quick to jump down the horse's throat duffy...

i had reservations yesterday about the horses chances as thought it was a tough ask off 150 but for me he did it quite easy...he is a very difficult horse for me to come round to from a form perspective but once again the horse done the talking...agree he still has plenty to find to get involved in top company but yesterday marked him down as a 160 horse and for a starting point he could do no more...i still need to see him against top horses as yesterdays bunch were just decent handicappers, he could do no more off top weight however...he is still improving and i think there are far worse 25-1 pokes around tbf and if progressing again i could see him getting in the money in the champ hurdle with decent progression...i haven't backed him as yet as want to see more i do however definitely respect now

his next run will tell us more
Report duffy November 10, 2013 1:27 PM GMT
One slight other concern, how much of a fly in the ointment is it the potential chasing career, does it mean that he is going to have to really do the business in no uncertain style in order to stay over hurdles, are they looking for a reason to send him chasing or are they looking for a reason to keep him hurdling, his next race really will be a telling one, scott talks about being well handicapped over hurdles and wanted to run him yesterday to exploit it but still wasn't sure whether he was and said that if it didn't work out yesterday that would be it and he'd go chasing, he's earned a stay of executionSilly on that score but  the next race will have to come quick against the big boys in order to get a satisfactory chasing career started for the rest of the season,and really will be judgement day.
Report sintonian November 10, 2013 8:44 PM GMT
Glossy 09 Nov 13 23:46 Joined: 22 Feb 09 | Topic/replies: 14,760 | Blogger: Glossy's blog
Nice pint at the aftertimers arms.

I was looking forward to reading this thread but it started with an aftertime and then another appeared during it. Disappointing.
Report brandyontherocks November 10, 2013 8:53 PM GMT
Surely you are big enough to pass over Howdi's aftertiming Sint, and enjoy the thread
Report Eeternaloptimist November 10, 2013 11:22 PM GMT
Nice horse. Couldn't get too excited by that performance in terms of a champion hurdle. He'll be 8 in March. Sure there aren't that many miles on the clock but he's still pretty much fully matured. Beating a four year old by just over a length who was trounced in the Triumph and we still don't know how good the winner of that race is? You wouldn't usually entertain a five year old for the champion so why would you go overboard about a 7 year old just beating a 4 year old giving four pounds nearly five months away from the big day? Cotton Mill on the day beaten a little more than he was by My Tent at Newbury but receiving less weight and beaten absolutely hollow that day.

Not for me.
Report Mystic Wind November 10, 2013 11:48 PM GMT
sintonian 10 Nov 13 20:44 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 21,971 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
Glossy 09 Nov 13 23:46 Joined: 22 Feb 09 | Topic/replies: 14,760 | Blogger: Glossy's blog
Nice pint at the aftertimers arms.

I was looking forward to reading this thread but it started with an aftertime and then another appeared during it. Disappointing
.

Don't remember saying I backed him, just that the price was generous. I really like this horse and was pleased to see him win. I've had a bit of the 25's for the CH, although MTOY is my number one arrow in that particular quiver.
Report Mystic Wind November 11, 2013 12:01 AM GMT
....although I'm on MTOY @ 10s, so there's an aftertime of sorts!
Report buddeliea November 11, 2013 7:43 AM GMT
Whose going overboard??
We all know he has to improve,and considering all the facts it was a pretty good performance Saturday.
Aint seen anyone saying hes a good thing for the CHurdle.
Its just a discussion on his merits and how he might do in the future,and whether his current price may be value compared to others.
Report Minger November 11, 2013 4:03 PM GMT
Not sure this was a sub standard Elite - think Far West is a decent yardstick - lot of the horses behind it in the Triumph have won since ,( Diakali, Sametegal , Lac Fontana - Chris Pea Green was 2nd behind Pine Creek at Ascot etc )so clearly no mug even though only 4 years old - Melodic Rendezvous has beaten was was in front of him and whilst he is not spectatcular think he will be highly competitive over 2m in the soft. If the ground came up good at Cheltenham it would all be too quick for him.Given that he is already 7 I would like to see them go novice chasing and have a crack at the Arkle.
Report buddeliea November 11, 2013 4:51 PM GMT
yeh,i thought they might go chasing straight away this season,they may still do that as they seem to be looking at all options,but I do genuinely feel he could figure in a CH should he improve a tad.If its true he was 75% on Saturday then theres a fair bit more to come for fitness.
Im not too sure about this soft ground opinion as I have said earlier,it will be very interesting if he ran against another contender or 2 on decent ground,he may just surprise some.
Report Minger November 13, 2013 5:40 PM GMT
If they all go in the fighting fifth the argument will become a whole lot clearer.......
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 30, 2013 8:48 AM GMT
Can see him winning today, Henderson horses on debut are mainly disappointing.
Report buddeliea November 30, 2013 10:01 AM GMT
I think we will know later today whether hes a CH horse or he goes chasing...big day for the horse.
Report festivalfanatic November 30, 2013 12:47 PM GMT
Jim McGrath was quite sweet on him on the Morning Line today.
Report Mystic Wind November 30, 2013 1:05 PM GMT
Wasn't going to have a bet today, as I really rate MTOY (have backed him for CH), but Billies put up 11/10 about MR in their w/o MTOY market, which was too good to turn down.

I guess my ideal result is MTOY shading it from MR, pair clear.Grin
Report buddeliea November 30, 2013 2:19 PM GMT
not good at all,maybe ground dependant which was always possible,hes not run as well as he normally does that's for sure.
Reckon he will go chasing now.
Report duffy November 30, 2013 2:24 PM GMT
You'd have to worry about the arkle trip...wants further, he'll be tapped for toe over 2 miles imo.
Report Autocue November 30, 2013 2:28 PM GMT
I though he ran to form as I said on the 'lay of the day' thread this morning the handicapper had him 10lb wrong due imo to over-rating the Puffin Billy form. Certainly wouldn't give up on him over fences though perhaps won't prove to be out of the top drawer especially over 2m.
Report sintonian November 30, 2013 5:40 PM GMT
Will be 8 next March. Might as well go chasing now.
Report brandyontherocks November 30, 2013 7:05 PM GMT
The Jewson would be more his race imo
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 30, 2013 7:37 PM GMT
that was just too bad to be true, he barely beat a horse he thrashed giving weight to the other week ?
Report unclepuncle December 1, 2013 8:58 AM GMT
Made a bad mistake about 5 out which ended his chance. I always felt there was a chance he'd run a bit flat ('the bounce factor').

If they give him a decent break I'd be quite keen to give him another chance on softer ground assuming his price is based on this run.
Report buddeliea December 1, 2013 9:12 AM GMT
yeh,hes a good horse and deserves to be given another chance,could well have bounced as you say uncle.
That weren't his running,i know that.
Report Autocue December 1, 2013 5:10 PM GMT
Better off getting some practice in over fences than wasting time over hurdles. That's what they said they would do if he showed he wasn't good enough and it's the right way to go imo. There were holes in his form before the race and yesterday added to them so no point making excuses.
Report buddeliea December 1, 2013 5:55 PM GMT
Well known that a lot of horses bounce in their 2nd race back after a lay off......well I thought it was!!
Think you are being a tad harsh,especially when he beat Cotton Mill easily when he won his 1st race back(giving CM 2lb)and then lost to that horse yesterday at levels!!
Of course it could also be down to him being ground dependant,but whatever way you look at it,that was a lot worse then his run lto.
Report Autocue December 1, 2013 8:03 PM GMT
If the trainer is there to look after the best interests of the horse rather than people's ante-post vouchers, he'll put him over fences. You can find an excuse for the Melodic Rendezvous disappointment yesterday but you also need several excuses for Puffin Billy and another for Far West. The other decent horse he beat over hurdles, Pendra, has sensibly gone chasing. Melodic Rendezvous has zero chance of winning the Champion Hurdle. Just my opinion. I say it as I see it so not trying to wind anyone up.
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 1, 2013 8:16 PM GMT
Puffin Billy has always been overated, Far West on the morning of the race went a bit mental.

Brave shout saying a 50/1 shot has no chance, bravo.

He maybe ground dependant, but he beat Cotton Mill easily lto but yesterday couldnt even beat him at levels. Still worth another shot imo.

Name your tip for the champion hurdle ?
Report buddeliea December 1, 2013 8:29 PM GMT
Yes,its your opinion autocue,no problem with that of course.
How about an opinion on how Cotton Mill has just turned round the form to that extent?
I work it out around 10lb.
Report buddeliea December 1, 2013 8:43 PM GMT
Autocue.
I hope you aint referring to me when you mention antepost vouchers.
Ive got big odds for the CH and the Arkle,so not that bothered what he does from now on as far as betting is concerned.
Im just looking at it the way I see it.
He has just ran a lot worse than his last run(see Cotton Mill as proof)and that imo is either he bounced or hes a  horse that is better suited to soft ground,or both.
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 1, 2013 8:58 PM GMT
Budd, this place is made up of many types.

Their are a few, who put up their views (freds), share them with others and it helps all of us in the long term, wrong or right.


Then their are others who just knock, without ever putting up their opinion before the downfall.
Report duffy December 1, 2013 9:22 PM GMT
The problem you've got is that they are short on time,at the start of the season the plan would have been to give him a run in the elite to see if he looks able to mix it at CH level and if not get him chasing.The problem here was that he won!!! and gave the impression that hurdles was still an option but even here he didn't beat anything remotely close to CH quality, still, they probably felt obliged to have another go just to confirm it.

Now he runs in the FF and they'd know they'd get a definitive answer because there's a proper CH horse in opposition, he gets well beat and in my opinion that should be that because they are in danger of messing the horse up. It doesn't matter if he made a mistake or if he maybe bounced that's unfortunate, because if they are taking the view that they'll have a try but only make a decision if everything goes 100% to plan in that race, they'll be there forever more, and they simply haven't got the time.

They have to seriously weigh up the probability of him being able to mix it with the CH horses compared to a novice chasing route because if he ran say at kempton over christmas and it went pear shaped, or even if he put up a half decent display without really looking like he was a leading player, they've then blown a novice route for this season, they wouldn't want to be going chasing after christmas, it's not enough experience for the horse, they'd end up treading water and wasting time until next season when he'll be going to the next festival as a nine year old novice. Also they have to take into account that this seasons CH is one of the most strongest in recent years.

I'd be very surprised if they didn't announce that they were now going chasing.
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 1, 2013 9:50 PM GMT
Fed up with this years CH is the strongest, its very weak. only 6 horses can win the it
Report brandyontherocks December 1, 2013 9:59 PM GMT
If 6 turn up in March with a good chance of winning, it will certainly be as an exciting renewal for years.

The next few months will tell us how strong it is. At the moment it looks an above standard race.
Report ReaseHeath December 1, 2013 10:24 PM GMT
tend to agree with both schools of thought - that definitely was n't his running yesterday but they surely have to give serious consideration to fences now.

Presume they went for yesterday's race because it gives them time to make the switch as opposed to going for the Bula which might have been a better race for him? I know it's only two weeks but as duffy points out connections will surely want to find a novice chase this side of the New Year if at all possible.

I just wonder if he might end up in the Jewson - were n't connections talking in terms of Supreme if soft, Neptune otherwise before he got injured last season?

I don't think it's easy though because it's possible that the fast pace of Champion Hurdle might suit him - every year the Champion Hurdle gets labelled weak/strong but there's a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and March, shock results not that unusual, Punjabi and Katchit would n't have been on a lot of people's minds in recent years.

I don't have any ap vouchers - in terms of an opinion if he were mine I'd go novice chasing because that opens up more options and the greater probability of a festival win.

The one thing I'm pretty sure of is that he's a smashing horse who will prove his run yesterday is not representative of his true ability.
Report buddeliea December 2, 2013 7:00 AM GMT
yeh,good points lads and fair reasoning for them to start chasing now rather than later.
Hopefully they will make the right decision to give the horse the best chance of proving hes as good as I think he is.
Report Autocue December 2, 2013 9:48 AM GMT
Ibrahima Sonko, aaa-nnnn-ddddd where did your credibility come from?

"Then their are others who just knock, without ever putting up their opinion before the downfall."

Are you accusing me of after-timing? I put it up as my lay of the day on Knight Riders daily thread in the horse racing forum. I also told budd on the champion hurdle thread that I didn't think it was good enough and would be sent chasing.

"Brave shout saying a 50/1 shot has no chance, bravo"
I also said I had gone right off him for the champion hurdle thread when he was at 19 (not 50) ALL before the Fighting Fifth. I called it right, you called it wrong, end of, and I'm not taking any slurs from you.

My idea of the Champion Hurdle winner is Jezki (and that's after he wasn't particularly impressive yesterday) though depends on the owner giving him his chance along with MTOY.
Report buddeliea December 2, 2013 12:32 PM GMT
as we don't know the reason for his below par run,i would say that no one has called anything right.

Auto,
I would still like your opinion on the big turn around in form between Melodic and Cotton Mill,if that's ok,cos I don't see CM as a big improver,so for me it means something weren't right with MR.

If connections come out with no excuses,then I will be the 1st to hold my hands up-done it plenty in the past-but until they do for me it remains up in the air.
Report duffy December 2, 2013 12:40 PM GMT
As of yet they haven't found anything wrong with him and the horse appears fine, jockey reported though that he didn't seem like the same horse pretty much from the start of the race....however,nothing has come to light yet.
Report buddeliea December 2, 2013 12:44 PM GMT
umm, that may well mean the ground or the bounce factor.
Report duffy December 2, 2013 12:49 PM GMT
In todays RP, also scott suggested that the CH is still an option and sounded as if he too is of the opinion that it was too bad to be true and is keen to give him every chance again....he said also that before the race he was also considering the WH if he ran his race but just wasn't quick enough.
Report Autocue December 2, 2013 8:04 PM GMT
He also said in the Mail last week he'd be going chasing if he didn't show well against MTOY (see link below) so that bit about the WH today makes the bloke sound like a muddled thinker to me.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-2513386/Melodic-Rendezvous-needs-Champion-Hurdles-credentials-chasing-warns-Jeremy-Scott.html

Hi budd, appreciate you want my view on Cotton Mill. I concern myself with assessing the relative merit of performances of a short-list of what I think are the principles. I try to keep it simple, trust my eyes and identify what I think are the key facts to take from races as there are too many variables (maybe Cotton Mill appreciated a more positive ride etc etc etc). In short I don't have a view on Cotton Mill. Apologies for that.

I do take the view that the form of Melodic Rendezvous had holes in it before Saturday and the Fighting Fifth added to that opinion. I think he has a mountain to climb just to match the performance of MTOY on Saturday and in addition I feel that horse is bound to improve somewhat as Henderson is brilliant at building his horses up to perform at their best at Cheltenham. McCoy thinks MTOY will need to improve a stone which seems about right. Where does that leave MR?
Report buddeliea December 2, 2013 8:42 PM GMT
Appreciate you answering mate.
As re Cotton Mill,i think hes a horse that is exposed for what he is and should not have improved enough to turn round that amount on MR. So I have to think MR did not run as well as he has previously in his races.
Where does that leave MR? For me it depends on what his connections feel was the reason for his below par run as its pretty clear that his jockey weren't happy with him.
Guess we will have to wait and see what his next entry is, or see if any quotes appear from connections.
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 6, 2013 9:31 PM GMT
I dont ever recall saying that MR was a good bet at a price, say 19. Cant remember me ever saying MR would/could win a champion hurdle.

im very confused now.
Report Autocue December 7, 2013 5:23 PM GMT
Get a life.
Report ReaseHeath December 9, 2013 11:02 AM GMT
Melodic Rendezvous now holds an entry in the Ladbroke at Ascot on 21st December.
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 11, 2014 1:44 PM GMT
Form franked Love
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 18, 2014 2:45 PM GMT
the dream is still on Love
Report unclepuncle January 18, 2014 2:50 PM GMT

Made a bad mistake about 5 out which ended his chance. I always felt there was a chance he'd run a bit flat ('the bounce factor').

If they give him a decent break I'd be quite keen to give him another chance on softer ground assuming his price is based on this run.


Great price today and nice to have some nibbles at huge odds for Cheltenham.Grin
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 18, 2014 2:52 PM GMT
i have an average price of 51.16 so far Excited
Report harry callaghan January 18, 2014 5:39 PM GMT
by all accounts the horse strained a muscle at newcastle so cunningham said today on 4

i think that confirmed him as a solid 160 horse now...whether he is just a much better horse in the mud is another matter, i'd stick my head on the block and say he is, but i also think hurricane fly is a much better horse in the mud

he will look a decent long poke in the champion if he could get his ideal conditions, he just seems so natural when devouring the mud when others will/would be disadvantaged
Report buddeliea January 18, 2014 5:42 PM GMT
good news is that surely he will now run in the CHurdle,so we have a runner,but yes,it seems clear he has to have it soft to have any chance.
Still, soft ground is possible.
Report shockster January 18, 2014 5:48 PM GMT
Well it's never quick the first day of the festitval.
Report chief dan January 18, 2014 6:31 PM GMT
cant wait to see this beast jump a fence next season think it will be the making of him, but he aint a bad hurdler for know an deserves his place in champ hurdle
Report unclepuncle January 18, 2014 7:30 PM GMT
On the one hand I think he'll be better suited to a bigger field and strong pace as he travels really well and finds plenty for pressure, but the one caveat is that his jumping needs to improve - injured himself at Newcastle with a bad blunder and flattened the 2nd last today.
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 18, 2014 7:42 PM GMT
Sometimes he jumps very well then his misses some, he pinged the last at wincanton at full speed.

I still think the faster they go the better he will perform, i can see him loving the champion hurdle pace, whether he is good enough that is a different matter but i can see him still well their around the final turn.
Report Autocue January 18, 2014 9:58 PM GMT
No chance in CH imo. Should have been sent chasing as he'll be 9 year old novice at Cheltenham when they finally get round to that next year.
Report alleged22 January 18, 2014 10:24 PM GMT
I was impressed again, this horse kinda went under my radar for a while.

I think he is a very capable animal but just short of what is required.

they prob started the season with the idea of going the arkle but then he wins the elite then he gets an injury in the MTOY  race and then wins again.

churdle is now the only option. and imo wheres he going to finish 5th or 6th.

if he had been campaigned as an arkle horse from day 1 and campaigned right he would surely be an arkle contender with a whole heap of options.
Report ReaseHeath January 19, 2014 12:12 PM GMT
I'm in the unclepuncle/Ibrahima camp - absolutely love the horse, love his attitude, he's proved his Fighting Fifth running was not his true form now for me.

I think he has a serious chance in the Champion Hurdle and will continue to be underestimated by the market because of his unfashionable connections and the blip in the Fighting Fifth.

Not even convinced that he needs soft ground but quite happy for the racing media to continue propagating that theory.
Report shockster January 19, 2014 12:25 PM GMT
Was at Haydock Yesterday and he won really well and maybe would have won easier if he'd not missed 2 out.  But, to my eye looking at all the form is that on heavy he is at best a 165 horse and that maybe pushing it.  He's very good but a few pounds behind the real top.  Def worth an entry and if it came up heavy, he could run into a place. Just my opinion.
Report Autocue January 19, 2014 5:31 PM GMT
IMO Haydock is the trial you use if you want to keep the dream alive while knowing it isn't going to have a happy ending.
Report harry callaghan January 19, 2014 5:58 PM GMT
settle down autocue

have you got a witch hunt on this horse? you must see he is a good horse on soft ground or blinkered to that as well?
Report duffy January 19, 2014 6:00 PM GMT
Autocue has got it about right...he's talking about it being the CH not having a happy ending...still a good horse though.
Report harry callaghan January 19, 2014 6:05 PM GMT
i know what he meant duffy

so he knows like you... that it won't be a soft ground CH

or has he got no chance on that either iyo duffy
Report duffy January 19, 2014 6:10 PM GMT
Who said he had no chance?....do I think he'll win...no, he's not quick enough...if it's a bog, who knows, but a typical soft ground race and he won't know which way HF goes for one thing, let alone any others...as I said though....still a good horse.
Report harry callaghan January 19, 2014 6:18 PM GMT
you agreed with autocue said duffy in regards to it not having a happy ending meaning he can't win the CH...hence my response

does make me laugh sometimes on here, after all he is a long shot

can say i've not even backed the poor horse and probably won't but these responses when ground conditions aren't known does tickle me
Report duffy January 19, 2014 6:39 PM GMT
harry,

My response to autocues comment was that he had it "about right" that implies that there is a subtle difference, this being, he used "knowing" whereas I wouldn't go that far, because none of us know.

I think you're over-reacting, saying it won't have a happy ending is not the same as saying it has no chance and it certainly does no imply a witch hunt, it is also not belittling the horse in anyway as you have inferred by using the term "poor horse", to make what I said more understandable, can I just add that, I don't think it will have a happy ending for HF, TNO, OC, JEX,either, but I certainly think that they have a chance, as does MR.

We certainly do agree on one thing though, for whatever the reasons some of the responses do tickle.
Report Autocue January 19, 2014 10:40 PM GMT
Make my day Callaghan. I don't think the horse is good enough to win a Champion Hurdle whatever the ground.
Report alleged22 January 19, 2014 10:46 PM GMT
neither do I, they will rue not going novice chasing with this one this season believe me
Report Colldogg January 20, 2014 12:54 AM GMT
I was on him last season at fancy prices for the supreme ew. The way he's performed this season I don't think he'd have been out of the placings for sure. Having said that, I agree with the general concencious that he's a long shot in the champ hurdle at best. I hope he does get some sft somewhere in the going though because if you forgive his Newcastle run then he's the only real long shot with a chance.
Report wellchief January 20, 2014 6:09 PM GMT
Yeah, I backed him after the Elite at 25's, and then he went to 50's after the Fighting Fifth Sad

The have been some bigger prices in recent times in or around the placings (Punjbi won 22/1, Overturn 2nd 20/1, Thousand Stars 4th 33/1), but I also agree with the concensus, in that if the others take each other on too early, he could sneak a place, but he is a 25/1 shot, so we're not talking about one of the favourites here.
Report harry callaghan January 21, 2014 5:40 PM GMT
Melodic to miss Festival unless rain pours down
By Peter Scargill 1:11PM 21 JAN 2014

UNLESS the heavens open in the days before the Cheltenham Festival, Melodic Rendezvous is highly likely to bypass the Grade 1 Stan James Champion Hurdle according to his trainer Jeremy Scott.

RELATED LINKS

    Champion Hurdle betting

The eight-year-old was an impressive winner of the Grade 2 Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock on heavy ground at the weekend and his preference for softer ground means Scott is leaning towards races away from Cheltenham.

"He's come out of the [Haydock] race very well so now we are considering our options," Scott said. "He seems to relish soft ground and we feel that while that type of ground prevails we might as well take advantage of it and run him sooner rather than later.

"The jury is out on the Champion Hurdle at the moment. We'll see how he comes out of his next run and make a decision from there but our thoughts at the moment are that if the ground is very soft at Cheltenham we would seriously consider it, but if not there are options at Aintree and Punchestown."

A general 20-1 chance for the Champion Hurdle, 16-1 with Paddy Power, Melodic Rendezvous has options at Sandown, Ffos Las and Wincanton for his next run.

Writing on his website, Scott added: "There's a Listed race at Sandown on February 1 or the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las on the same day.

"Our other option is the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton on February 15 which, timing wise, is perfect. But it will be a very competitive race with a lot of the big guns being aimed at it so we might dodge that in favour of one of the other options."
Report wellchief January 21, 2014 6:01 PM GMT
To be honest, I'm not overly disappointed by this.

I backed him NRFB, and if I had the choice I'd rather have my stake back on the day, and throw it on Quevega for a refund.

If it does come up soft, then I'll go into the race with a horse that will relish the ground and has a chance at placing, so win win from my point of view.
Report festivalfanatic January 21, 2014 6:41 PM GMT
If the weather doesn't relent, it could be proper soft. Be interesting to see how the ground rides on Saturday. It was heavy this time last year.
Report Mystic Wind January 21, 2014 6:56 PM GMT
Am I the only one to find it strange that Scott talks about possible races on Feb 1st & Feb 15th, yet makes no mention of the big pot, advantageous handicap mark and likely suitable ground at Newbury on Feb 8th?
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 21, 2014 7:59 PM GMT
None of it makes any sense.
Report shockster January 22, 2014 10:23 AM GMT
Can anybody explain to me, why, after beating Ptit Zig by 4.5 lengths last week admittedly getting 4lbs, that the handicapper still makes MR 3lb 1nferior to Ptit Zig.  Melodic 156 Ptit Zig 159.

Is it me?
Report unclepuncle January 22, 2014 11:02 AM GMT
I can sort of understand the logic them trying to win another soft race or two between now and Cheltenham while ground conditions are in their favour, but assuming he is still 100% on the day I'd have thought he should take his chance in the CH.

Don't see the point of waiting for Punchestown as the field will likely be just as strong their, and certainly HF and Jezki have shown they are better at Punchestown than Cheltenham, whereas MR has shown he likes Cheltenham.
Report Autocue January 22, 2014 11:38 PM GMT
Trainer looking to dodge the Kingwell as he thinks it will be too competitive. Says it all really. Muddled thinker IMO and should have sent him chasing like he said he would.
Report wellchief January 24, 2014 10:58 AM GMT
Fair do's, 9 isn't an ideal age to go novice chasing, but he is very lightly raced. Captain Cee Bee was hot fav for the Arkle at 9, and would have gone really close but for bursting a blood vessel, as his form in Ireland was really strong.

No doubt he has the ability to win an Arkle next year, but as with every year, it depends on the quality of the opposition. Its fair to say that one of MTOY or Jezki will be in the Arkle next year, ao there's already one big hurdle (literally!)
Report ReaseHeath January 28, 2014 6:26 PM GMT
entered in Contenders Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday - so is Un De Sceaux, wonder if they'll both turn up?
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 28, 2014 6:41 PM GMT
Should wait a week for the betfair hurdle, it will be really testing ground and a massive pot to go for.
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 31, 2014 10:00 PM GMT
Dear mr scott

Please run Melodic Rendezvous in the betfair hurdle, in his short career you will learn more than ever if you let him run in this race.

I understand the wincanton option, but afterwards it is likely you will be in the same position, as you dont really know how good your horse is.

So given we are in one of the wettest winters ever, go on, give it a bash.

Even if you run well in the betfair and beaten it is still possible you may well run better at cheltenham.

Yours thankfully

A Fan
Report duffy February 1, 2014 12:45 AM GMT
^
I agree, he isn't going to win the top hurdle race at the festival but this race would be a very good consolation prize, that nice long straight in the slop would be right up his street. Half or more of the field won't even act if the ground is that bad while it'll have no effect on him whatsoever.....they're not going to get the chance to win the best non festival 2 mile handicap hurdle race again.....it's a no brainer.
Report duffy February 1, 2014 1:01 AM GMT
"We think it is better to make hay while this wet ground prevails that he seems to prefer. He's still a relatively lightly-raced horse, and the Champion Hurdle is still six weeks away."

That quote is referring to the sandown race he was going to run in, but should now hopefully apply to next week instead.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 8, 2014 7:49 PM GMT
Would had gone mightily close in the betfair hurdle Sad
Report thornton reed February 8, 2014 9:57 PM GMT
Dear mr scott

Please run Melodic Rendezvous in the betfair hurdle, in his short career you will learn more than ever if you let him run in this race.

I understand the wincanton option, but afterwards it is likely you will be in the same position, as you dont really know how good your horse is.

So given we are in one of the wettest winters ever, go on, give it a bash.

Even if you run well in the betfair and beaten it is still possible you may well run better at cheltenham.

Yours thankfully

A Fan


Completely agree with this. I'm a big fan of the horse and I'm on him for the champion. He needs to be tested before then however.

Today's race was an ideal opportunity and would have put him right in the mix if he had won.

Similarly after his win in the Haydock trial he said:

"The jury is out on the Champion Hurdle at the moment, and after last year’s disappointment, we won’t be getting too excited about it. We’ll see how he comes out of his next run, and make a decision from there but our thoughts at the moment are that if the ground is very soft at Cheltenham we would seriously consider it, but if not there are options at Aintree and Punchestown"

If Melodic doesn't have a go at the big one what was the point of keeping him hurdling? He's a 8yo so while he's lightly raced he's no spring chicken. Will surely only have a couple more years to fulfill his potential so they have to try and test him instead of going for Mickey Mouse trial races.
Report duffy February 9, 2014 12:18 AM GMT
Missed a big chance today.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 9, 2014 1:13 AM GMT
massive chance, duffy.

I read the form as a simpleton and used Far West as a yardstick Cry
Report unclepuncle February 17, 2014 1:58 PM GMT
Well at least it looks as though we will get a run for our money now.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 22, 2014 8:27 AM GMT
Hope so mate, looks like a small field too.

I would like to know how much autocue has laid MR for ?

Clearly his posts state that he has laid it for a big sum.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! February 22, 2014 3:38 PM GMT
No chance of this winning.
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