Cheltenham Festival
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Melodic Rendezvous
Melodic Rendezvous
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Replies: 121
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yeh,i thought they might go chasing straight away this season,they may still do that as they seem to be looking at all options,but I do genuinely feel he could figure in a CH should he improve a tad.If its true he was 75% on Saturday then theres a fair bit more to come for fitness.
Im not too sure about this soft ground opinion as I have said earlier,it will be very interesting if he ran against another contender or 2 on decent ground,he may just surprise some. |
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If they all go in the fighting fifth the argument will become a whole lot clearer.......
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Can see him winning today, Henderson horses on debut are mainly disappointing.
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I think we will know later today whether hes a CH horse or he goes chasing...big day for the horse.
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Jim McGrath was quite sweet on him on the Morning Line today.
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Wasn't going to have a bet today, as I really rate MTOY (have backed him for CH), but Billies put up 11/10 about MR in their w/o MTOY market, which was too good to turn down.
I guess my ideal result is MTOY shading it from MR, pair clear.  |
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not good at all,maybe ground dependant which was always possible,hes not run as well as he normally does that's for sure.
Reckon he will go chasing now. |
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You'd have to worry about the arkle trip...wants further, he'll be tapped for toe over 2 miles imo.
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I though he ran to form as I said on the 'lay of the day' thread this morning the handicapper had him 10lb wrong due imo to over-rating the Puffin Billy form. Certainly wouldn't give up on him over fences though perhaps won't prove to be out of the top drawer especially over 2m.
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Will be 8 next March. Might as well go chasing now.
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The Jewson would be more his race imo
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that was just too bad to be true, he barely beat a horse he thrashed giving weight to the other week ?
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Made a bad mistake about 5 out which ended his chance. I always felt there was a chance he'd run a bit flat ('the bounce factor').
If they give him a decent break I'd be quite keen to give him another chance on softer ground assuming his price is based on this run. |
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yeh,hes a good horse and deserves to be given another chance,could well have bounced as you say uncle.
That weren't his running,i know that. |
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Better off getting some practice in over fences than wasting time over hurdles. That's what they said they would do if he showed he wasn't good enough and it's the right way to go imo. There were holes in his form before the race and yesterday added to them so no point making excuses.
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Well known that a lot of horses bounce in their 2nd race back after a lay off......well I thought it was!!
Think you are being a tad harsh,especially when he beat Cotton Mill easily when he won his 1st race back(giving CM 2lb)and then lost to that horse yesterday at levels!! Of course it could also be down to him being ground dependant,but whatever way you look at it,that was a lot worse then his run lto. |
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If the trainer is there to look after the best interests of the horse rather than people's ante-post vouchers, he'll put him over fences. You can find an excuse for the Melodic Rendezvous disappointment yesterday but you also need several excuses for Puffin Billy and another for Far West. The other decent horse he beat over hurdles, Pendra, has sensibly gone chasing. Melodic Rendezvous has zero chance of winning the Champion Hurdle. Just my opinion. I say it as I see it so not trying to wind anyone up.
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Puffin Billy has always been overated, Far West on the morning of the race went a bit mental.
Brave shout saying a 50/1 shot has no chance, bravo. He maybe ground dependant, but he beat Cotton Mill easily lto but yesterday couldnt even beat him at levels. Still worth another shot imo. Name your tip for the champion hurdle ? |
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Yes,its your opinion autocue,no problem with that of course.
How about an opinion on how Cotton Mill has just turned round the form to that extent? I work it out around 10lb. |
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Autocue.
I hope you aint referring to me when you mention antepost vouchers. Ive got big odds for the CH and the Arkle,so not that bothered what he does from now on as far as betting is concerned. Im just looking at it the way I see it. He has just ran a lot worse than his last run(see Cotton Mill as proof)and that imo is either he bounced or hes a horse that is better suited to soft ground,or both. |
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Budd, this place is made up of many types.
Their are a few, who put up their views (freds), share them with others and it helps all of us in the long term, wrong or right. Then their are others who just knock, without ever putting up their opinion before the downfall. |
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The problem you've got is that they are short on time,at the start of the season the plan would have been to give him a run in the elite to see if he looks able to mix it at CH level and if not get him chasing.The problem here was that he won!!! and gave the impression that hurdles was still an option but even here he didn't beat anything remotely close to CH quality, still, they probably felt obliged to have another go just to confirm it.
Now he runs in the FF and they'd know they'd get a definitive answer because there's a proper CH horse in opposition, he gets well beat and in my opinion that should be that because they are in danger of messing the horse up. It doesn't matter if he made a mistake or if he maybe bounced that's unfortunate, because if they are taking the view that they'll have a try but only make a decision if everything goes 100% to plan in that race, they'll be there forever more, and they simply haven't got the time. They have to seriously weigh up the probability of him being able to mix it with the CH horses compared to a novice chasing route because if he ran say at kempton over christmas and it went pear shaped, or even if he put up a half decent display without really looking like he was a leading player, they've then blown a novice route for this season, they wouldn't want to be going chasing after christmas, it's not enough experience for the horse, they'd end up treading water and wasting time until next season when he'll be going to the next festival as a nine year old novice. Also they have to take into account that this seasons CH is one of the most strongest in recent years. I'd be very surprised if they didn't announce that they were now going chasing. |
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Fed up with this years CH is the strongest, its very weak. only 6 horses can win the it
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If 6 turn up in March with a good chance of winning, it will certainly be as an exciting renewal for years.
The next few months will tell us how strong it is. At the moment it looks an above standard race. |
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tend to agree with both schools of thought - that definitely was n't his running yesterday but they surely have to give serious consideration to fences now.
Presume they went for yesterday's race because it gives them time to make the switch as opposed to going for the Bula which might have been a better race for him? I know it's only two weeks but as duffy points out connections will surely want to find a novice chase this side of the New Year if at all possible. I just wonder if he might end up in the Jewson - were n't connections talking in terms of Supreme if soft, Neptune otherwise before he got injured last season? I don't think it's easy though because it's possible that the fast pace of Champion Hurdle might suit him - every year the Champion Hurdle gets labelled weak/strong but there's a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and March, shock results not that unusual, Punjabi and Katchit would n't have been on a lot of people's minds in recent years. I don't have any ap vouchers - in terms of an opinion if he were mine I'd go novice chasing because that opens up more options and the greater probability of a festival win. The one thing I'm pretty sure of is that he's a smashing horse who will prove his run yesterday is not representative of his true ability. |
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yeh,good points lads and fair reasoning for them to start chasing now rather than later.
Hopefully they will make the right decision to give the horse the best chance of proving hes as good as I think he is. |
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Ibrahima Sonko, aaa-nnnn-ddddd where did your credibility come from?
"Then their are others who just knock, without ever putting up their opinion before the downfall." Are you accusing me of after-timing? I put it up as my lay of the day on Knight Riders daily thread in the horse racing forum. I also told budd on the champion hurdle thread that I didn't think it was good enough and would be sent chasing. "Brave shout saying a 50/1 shot has no chance, bravo" I also said I had gone right off him for the champion hurdle thread when he was at 19 (not 50) ALL before the Fighting Fifth. I called it right, you called it wrong, end of, and I'm not taking any slurs from you. My idea of the Champion Hurdle winner is Jezki (and that's after he wasn't particularly impressive yesterday) though depends on the owner giving him his chance along with MTOY. |
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as we don't know the reason for his below par run,i would say that no one has called anything right.
Auto, I would still like your opinion on the big turn around in form between Melodic and Cotton Mill,if that's ok,cos I don't see CM as a big improver,so for me it means something weren't right with MR. If connections come out with no excuses,then I will be the 1st to hold my hands up-done it plenty in the past-but until they do for me it remains up in the air. |
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As of yet they haven't found anything wrong with him and the horse appears fine, jockey reported though that he didn't seem like the same horse pretty much from the start of the race....however,nothing has come to light yet.
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umm, that may well mean the ground or the bounce factor.
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In todays RP, also scott suggested that the CH is still an option and sounded as if he too is of the opinion that it was too bad to be true and is keen to give him every chance again....he said also that before the race he was also considering the WH if he ran his race but just wasn't quick enough.
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He also said in the Mail last week he'd be going chasing if he didn't show well against MTOY (see link below) so that bit about the WH today makes the bloke sound like a muddled thinker to me.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-2513386/Melodic-Rendezvous-needs-Champion-Hurdles-credentials-chasing-warns-Jeremy-Scott.html Hi budd, appreciate you want my view on Cotton Mill. I concern myself with assessing the relative merit of performances of a short-list of what I think are the principles. I try to keep it simple, trust my eyes and identify what I think are the key facts to take from races as there are too many variables (maybe Cotton Mill appreciated a more positive ride etc etc etc). In short I don't have a view on Cotton Mill. Apologies for that. I do take the view that the form of Melodic Rendezvous had holes in it before Saturday and the Fighting Fifth added to that opinion. I think he has a mountain to climb just to match the performance of MTOY on Saturday and in addition I feel that horse is bound to improve somewhat as Henderson is brilliant at building his horses up to perform at their best at Cheltenham. McCoy thinks MTOY will need to improve a stone which seems about right. Where does that leave MR? |
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Appreciate you answering mate.
As re Cotton Mill,i think hes a horse that is exposed for what he is and should not have improved enough to turn round that amount on MR. So I have to think MR did not run as well as he has previously in his races. Where does that leave MR? For me it depends on what his connections feel was the reason for his below par run as its pretty clear that his jockey weren't happy with him. Guess we will have to wait and see what his next entry is, or see if any quotes appear from connections. |
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I dont ever recall saying that MR was a good bet at a price, say 19. Cant remember me ever saying MR would/could win a champion hurdle.
im very confused now. |
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Get a life.
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Melodic Rendezvous now holds an entry in the Ladbroke at Ascot on 21st December.
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Form franked
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the dream is still on
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Made a bad mistake about 5 out which ended his chance. I always felt there was a chance he'd run a bit flat ('the bounce factor'). If they give him a decent break I'd be quite keen to give him another chance on softer ground assuming his price is based on this run. Great price today and nice to have some nibbles at huge odds for Cheltenham. |
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i have an average price of 51.16 so far
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