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Had to top up a bit more at 10-1. If / when that happens Giggsy, I can see him being 7-1 joint fav.
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Yeh Sint,its interesting with the form of Dodging Bullets,i was quiet impressed with him. Turn over sivola was giving him a good race when falling, so could provide us with a bit of a guide today.Hinterland had a few chases and his run behind Captain Conan was not too bad.If Grandouet wins this well hes gonna be popular for sure.
As per normal for me with these type of races its a watching brief,with the jumping being watched very carefully. |
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Two years ago, thought Grandouet had a great chance in the Champion Hurdle, as he travels so well in his races. Since then, a tumble, some niggles, and now I think he may not really be the type of hardy battler you need for Cheltenham. Got to be a great jumper at speed. We'll go somewhere towards finding out today I guess, but I have my reservations.
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Not sure how much you'll find out today, Hinterland is a rancidly over hyped beast.
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PFN says Hinterland bled after his thumping by Simonsig fwiw.
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Jesus, he jumps there well big, innit.
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Still keen in his races.
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No Arkle winner there imvho.
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![]() Slips torn up already. Sure he will improve loads etc etc, but agree. Couldnt have him on my mind for the Arkle after that. |
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Was gettin beat by Hinterland - nothin to see here, move along
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Do you know when Champagne Fever is due out BJG?
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Listened 2 commentary and it didn't sound good. I'll watch it later and have a better opinion.
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Reckon the unseating by Grandouet today was in part due to Hinterland coming across him as they jumped the last. I suspect Barry will say something similar. That said, even with a clear jump and landing the form does not look good enough. Grandouet could be a bit of a bridle horse as well.
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He'll be a lot lot better in a strong run race and bigger field, I wasn't a fan as I think he's another of the specialist hurdlers now going chasing because they don't think he can win a CH now, but if I was a supporter of his I wouldn't be writing him off yet after today, he he needs to settle and he'll be a lot better, tanked through the race today but earlier exertions were catching up at the end.
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Fair point duffy. He does need a strong pace to run at. Maybe the Owner can use Raya Star
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yes, I'm sure king won't mind
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No pace in the race didn't help. Ground almost certainly too soft. Must have schooled better at home for them to go to Sandown first time up. I wouldn't give up om the Arkle if I was on at a fancy price but he doesn't look a natural and I don't think Cheltenham is his track.
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duffy
09 Nov 13 13:58 Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 10,944 | Blogger: duffy's blog He'll be a lot lot better in a strong run race and bigger field, I wasn't a fan as I think he's another of the specialist hurdlers now going chasing because they don't think he can win a CH now, but if I was a supporter of his I wouldn't be writing him off yet after today, he he needs to settle and he'll be a lot better, tanked through the race today but earlier exertions were catching up at the end. Not sure I see the logic. If exertions were catching up with him at the end of a sedately run affair, how wuould that equate to a faster pace suiting him? Now, this was first run of season, and first run over fences, so entitled to improve on both counts. |
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Unless you mean jumping errors / jumping too big catching up with him.
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The logic is, he was pulling and wasting energy fighting against the jockey with the jockey fighting him whilst the others were racing within themselves, whilst all the horses were still racing together so his extra burn was affording him gained ground on the field, if it was a stronger pace he would still be using up the same energy because the jockey would have been able to let him stride out within the natural pace of the race, the other horses would in that situation be using up an equal amount of energy to him having to go at the increased pace themselves, therefore being in the same boat as him at the closing stages of the race.
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wasn't affording him gained ground on the field that should read.
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Cheers duffy, get what you mean. Was the jockey remiss then in not letting the 'on paper' much better horse stride out and go his natural pace?
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I was just thinking that, why didn't he just let him go, the horse was in 2nd place on sufferance for most of the race, although I accept that we've seen horses pull far more than he did today, you can still see after a number of the fences that the horse momentarily got lit up and geraghty quickly put the brakes on, I'm not a fan of these "hurdlers" belatedly taking up an alternative career, but for all the negatives today I can see a lot of hope for him, there were a couple of mistakes granted, but he jumped very well too for the majority.
Bear in mind too that in hinterland, although much maligned as an over-rated horse, he was at the start of last season, nicholl's great hope for the arkle and although not living up to that, certainly isn't no mug and himself will be better this time round considering he appears to be more tractable through the race, grandouet didn't do that bad against a far more experienced rival in him. |
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I think to win the Arkle you (generally) need a tough type with a real appetite for jumping fences at speed. There may well be a few obvious candidates from last season (top hurdlers making the transition), but until we find out for sure who is 'up for it' then the Arkle can be a bit of a minefield. I know that history might well say that top quality hurdlers fare well, but that might just mean that they are proper chasing types.
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The horse has always been a hold up horse and assuming that he gets to The Arkle that is exactly how he will be ridden so I don't imagine it's the end of the world for connections to lose this battle if it helps him in the war. He's also only six. Ideal time to be going chasing and he's always had the build of a potential chaser.
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I'd agree with JOCI clubs main point there. No disrespect to those who have backed any of the main protagonists before they've seen a fence but surely there can be no logic to that?
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Defy Logic then, maybe?
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Strictly speaking I don't think so. Backing a horse which had fallen in its races or taken them by the roots would defy logic. There is no logic for backing a horse which has never jumped a fence in public because without evidence there can be no logic I'd say.
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Think joci was using a play on words, as in defy logic the actual horse and arkle contender
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yep,and a contender that jumped really well,unlike that yesterday,which to me was as unlike an Arkle winner as you are likely to see as re jumping.Just cannot afford to jump that big in a 2m chase,using up far too much energy and too long in the air.
I am all for giving novices chances and he deserves another,but jumping needs to be sorted,and to be honest it looks his natural way of getting over them. Its always a risk backing without having seen them jump,it can pay off,but in this case it aint. |
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Aprt from the first couple, I don't actually think he jumped too badly, and I feel it was a tough assignment for a first ever chase.
However, I don't think there are any excuses; he was simply beaten by the better horse, and Hinterland would have won if the partnership would have stayed intact. Hinterland was firmly put in his place by Simonsig and Captain Conan last year (Simonsig pulled a lot harder than Grandouet as well), so Grandouet is miles away from being an Arkle winner at the moment. Luckily I had a nice price, so I have layed off the win part at half the odds I backed him at (I'll keep the place part though because the race will cut up), but imo, you'd need your head testing to back him around the 12/1 mark for the Arkle after that. To be honest, I expected him to make the odd mistake because it was his first race, but I expected him to be tanking between fences and make up the distance lost. I was surprised that he looked like he couldn't go with Hinterland at the end, because I expected a comfortable 3 or 4 length win, and to say, "when he improves his jumping he'll win further". |
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Eeternaloptimist, I suppose thats the gamble; where you are taking much better odds hoping that they have schooled well and can transfer their ability. Usually they have an "easy" first race and will be clipped in a few points after, where you can lay off at smaller odds if you want to.
It's similar to anyone backing Briar Hill without him watching a hurdle race. It's like Budd says, some times it works, some times it doesn't (I'm sure the people who had Simonsig at about 8/1 this time last year weren't complaining - I was though because I wasn't one of them ) |
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well chief
He was tanking between fences, geraghty put the brakes on after every fence, he didn't jump as bad as it's being made out, he winged quite a few of them, he was keen through a lot of the race and travelled by far the best horse in the race too, as he should, he emptied quick enough at the end, but I'd forgive him that, all in all,it wasn't no great disaster to my eyes, and I'm not even a fan of these hurdlers going chasing and certainly haven't backed him. |
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Duffy,he jumped far too big and came down under pressure,and was pretty well beaten had he stood up.
Yes,he deserves another chance,but a repeat of that he wont even be aimed at a decent 2m chase imo. |
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And if Hinterland is anywhere near winning an Arkle then its a poor show imo.
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Hinterland isn't of course arkle quality, but he's a fair yardstick to begin with, he's got experience and himself looks a completely different horse to last year, where, certainly in his first race last year was a complete nutter, grandouet jumped the first couple big,and was perhaps intimidated a bit at the last as hinterland edged across him a little but other than that jumped well, down the side of the course his jumping was excellent, we're certainly not talkng about an iris's gift round of jumping here although you'd think so.
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The main thing that disappointed me was Simonsig had already crossed the line before Hinterland reached the last when they met, and Grandouet would have struggled if he's stayed up.
He travelled well in the race, but Hinterland travelled just as strongly and was drawing clear. I'd accept that if he was pulling really hard and got beat by Champagne Fever, but I think he should have won yesterday no matter how hard he pulled to be honest. Not many think of Hinterland as an Arkle winner, but he jumped better, travelled as well and was finishing the race better than Grandouet, but is twice the odds? I'm probably being a bit harsh on Grandouet, and he should improve with every run, but he just didn't have the engine at the end that I thought he would. I know i keep going back to it, but that's what was impressive about Simonsig, because he pulled really bad, but had the massive engine to compensate; I'm not sure Grandouet has that. |
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Anyone else think Grandouet is a vastly overrated beast, exacerbated by the fact that people are constantly making excuses for him?
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I must point out, that when making cut throat judgements I have a terrible record so prepare for Grandouet to sweep all before him now and win the Arkle in a common canter.
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Jumped more than a couple big mate.
Anyway, maybe they can improve that,we shall have to wait and see,but he does need to jump lower to be a 2m chaser of quality,but like I say deserves another chance. |