Cheltenham Festival
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cheltenham gold cup 2014 .
cheltenham gold cup 2014 .
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cant believe the negativity towards sir des champs. Hes always improves throughout the season, loves cheltenham and better ground. quite obvious that mullins has one aim in mind for him. astounded that he is 10/1 with bet victor nrfb. the people who are knocking this run are the same people who are backing bob. remember his first run this year??
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Sir Des Champs could barely walk across the line last year, took a horrendous fall earlier this year and was beaten about 6 lengths today.
Place material, yes. Likely winner in my book, no. I also have the KG as a stronger trial than the Lexus. Also, haven't had a single bet in the race yet. |
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didnt mean people on here are literally backing bob with their money sorry.
On the gold cup, i thought it was blatant the soft ground did for him that day. The only worries ive have were that awful fall and if the gc followed by the punchestown gc would have left a mark. he jumped well today except for one so i think he has put the fall behind him. I agree that the kg was a better race but i dont see it having to much of an effect on cheltenham. Conti deserves to be fav in my eyes. Just think sir des is a ridiculous price at 9s when cue card (nothing against him except 3m 2f) is also around the same price. |
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sts
you've got sire de grugy on the brain  |
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SDC just looks a bit below the very best now doesn't he? narrow victories over Flem and LR over the distance, well beat in the end in last years gold cup, well beat again today? wouldn't fancy him at 10's tbh.
After today we've had the concern that last years races have not left a mark on BW, that was a bit of a worry after haydock therefore he'd be my main hope because he's done it and conti still has the question to answer, 7/2 is a fair price about BW as there is a possibility that he's the only stayer over the trip in the field and even if conti gets home he's still got to do it better than BW, having said that I've a hunch that AF may appreciate the trip so 25's is worth an interest, just in case.  |
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Agree about SDC.
The 2 extra furlongs and the hill is the key,if a horse is going to outrun BW then maybe a 8 length lead at the 3 mile stage is whats required. Is the King George form better? Apart from the winner i think it may be like last year,the best ryanair trial |
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I would be quite wary of backing Al Ferof for the Gold Cup with the noises coming from the Nicholls yard.
They think he didn't stay the trip compared to most people on here who thought he was tapped for toe and stayed on the one pace. Nicholls commented in his novice days that he is a good ground horse and has stated he will not be running this January, which counts out the Pillar. So time will be running out if they want to try him over 3 miles again so the Ryanair looks to be the obvious choice at the moment. |
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I don't have anything against SDC. He's just been beaten twice by Bob now, and only beat Lyreen Legend a couple if lengths the other day.
I think something like the Bowl at Aintree would be his race. Usually better ground over a slightly shorter trip, just as it worked for FL last year, who won't stay the GC trip imo. I rated the KG better because it had the exciting up and coming ones, and it separated the men from the boys Imo. The Lexus was the same old crew (except Unioneste and Rubi Ball) who we knew all about anyway. I want to see Rubi Ball run again over 3m to assess the form. He was very good in his day but had lost his way somewhat, so his proximity to the leaders would concern me a bit. |
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Think Rubi Ball is better on worse ground and over a longer trip.
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I think you are confusing Rubi Ball with Rubi Light. The former looks very good though and is probably open to further improvement. He'd be interesting in the Irish Hennessy but probably needs soft ground to be at his best.
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No mate, it is the right Rubi Ball I'm thinking of.
He was very good a few years ago in France with Long Run, but he's had 32 chase starts now, and is nearly 9. He's got loads of miles on the clock and became fully exposed in France. I cannot have him at all for the Gold Cup, so for him to be leading turning for home and to finish third is a worry for the form imo. |
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I see - I would not be familiar with the form in France. You could be right.
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Think Cue Card will still be aimed at the Gold Cup.....whatever happens with Sprinter Sacre.
Better ground as it probably will be and he should stand a fair chance and his current odds are maybe a tad generous. Hes quality,and being 2nd in the KG on soft ground should not put them off at all imo. Is not as if he struggled home!! He Just got beaten by a bl00dy good performance on the day. He loves Cheltenham, and if its normal Gold Cup ground I can see him running another big race. One thing for sure he will get a lot in trouble earlier than they would like inc the current champ. Imo his presence will add a lot to the race,and I really hope he lines up. |
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anyone notice the Lexus was a complete sprint or is everyone blind round here? The form isn't worth 5hit and all you can read into it if anything was BW being a stayer did well in a sprint but he was given a very nice ride. The leader had the run of the race and can surely have no chance in the GC.
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I am clear in my thinking that if Bobs Worth can beat the best of the Irish at Leopardstown in Lexus over 3m where I don't think the fast track particularly suits him then he will have them all well beat at Cheltenham over 3m2+ with the up hill finish. So in my thinking he only has Silviniaco Contil, Cue Card and Al Ferof as real threats. So Bobs Worth it is then !
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I backed Al Ferof for the KG,i would give him another chance to win at 3m on decent ground b4 a shot at the GC,but Ryanair looks his best chance now.
The tank on CC looked like it emptied,i have my doubts that he will see out the extra 2 furlongs,but you can't leave a horse of his class and festival form unbacked. |
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Problem Bobsworth will have imo is getting outpaced if Cue Card lines up.We know SC can go the pace and we know he stays,hes the most likely winner imo.Even if CC don't line up they know now that SC can be right up with the pace,and I can still see Bob getting a tad outpaced. Guess it depends how much ground he can make up.
The race has certainly got the feel of a faster one than last year,and SC will benefit more imo. If he stays on his feet!! |
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After the KG they are left with a big decision with CC, they've got to go even further in the GC, so there would be a temptation to drop back to the Ryanair....and that's before you even throw in the SS situation tempting them back to 2 miles which would be a strong tempter,....all in all I would be surprised if he ran in the GC.
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or dynaste now too.
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yep duffy not only 2f more for cue card but up and downhill with a mutha of a climb uphill to the finish ,couldn't be confident his stamina will last .
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Well he stayed ok on better ground at Haydock.
Hes been trained for 3m type races and I will be surprised if they are swayed away from his campaign by the KG run on soft ground, it was still a good run. Decent ground I think he will line up in the Gcup,but I can see them keeping options open in case it comes up soft. |
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yeah they will budd no point commiting to anything yet a choice of 3 races ,and he would have an excellent chance of winning either the ryanaire or qmcc if ss is absent ,just think there are a few stronger stayers who will finish the race off better .
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finish the race off better in the gold cup^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^6
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Personally i do not understand people on here that are against BW, Haydock does not suit clearly, Haydock is a speed track, especially the flat course they raced on in the betfair chase, it was never going to suit. Leopardstown how ever completely different! To say BW will get outpaced early on if CC runs in it probably are quite right, but BW is one of the best staying chasers around and Cheltenham suits. Quite clear seeing as he is the reigning champ.
It's going to be a great race whatever happens though i do fear CC being the next Florida Peal/One Man, i would love to see him try it! |
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Joe Tizzard seems to want the Gold Cup:
"The ground was against him and I look forward to taking the other horse on again on good ground. "He pinged the second last and within 100 yards I felt him come under pressure. And then when Silviniaco Conti has got in front, he hasn't come any further away from us. "You can't say he didn't get the trip. It's not as if he turned in and then went from being in front to finishing fourth. I think it turned out to be a cracking run. We went a true gallop all the way. He jumped super and got into a cracking rhythm. "I think Paul [Nicholls] and Noel [Fehily] had a good game-plan," he commented. "They sat close, virtually touching me all the way, so I was never able, at any stage, to get in front and fill him up. "I was starting to come under a bit of pressure [going to the second-last fence], but I thought I had enough to keep me going. But generally it was a good run and the best horse on the day won." |
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I don't think there is much value left in the current market, I think if all the main pretenders turn up they are within a point or 2 of what their SP will be. The only value I see is Lyreen Legend at 50/1 NRFB, I thought he did well in his first start this season in the Lexus. He travelled and jumped well and looked dangerous 2 out before tiring in the straight. He turned around the RSA form with Lord Windermere and Unioniste who both had the benefit of a run. If he improves for the race he could run a decent race in the Irish Hennessy and go off 20’s on the big day in March. But I'm fully aware this is straw clutching at its finest!
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CC must surely go for the Gold Cup as they have to find out for sure while he is at his peak. Still be plenty of other options if doesn't stay including Ryannair again in 2015.Nothing to lose for connections. Not enough evidence yet that he won't stay, just a feeling that he probably won't.
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Agree ^^^^^^^^
We know he loves Cheltenham, plus with the undulating tight track he might be able to get a breather, to help up the hill. |
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Take SC out of the King George and CC wins easy and is a short price for Gold Cup, I don't see anything from the Irish challengers so at worst he looks 3rd best behind BW and SC.
The problem I have is trying to find a decent bet in the race at the moment and I keep coming to Al Ferof at 25s as the only possible value and surely this is what Segal will pick in his A/P preview. Completely clutching at straws I wonder if Vino Griego will be declared. RThere seem very few outsiders with any squeak |
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Triolo D'Alene is the only outsider I'd be interested in, progressive profile.
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Some people's perception of Leopardstown as tight and a speed track are very wrong imo.
It's a big galloping track with long straights and sweeping turns, with a massive climb from the back straight to the finishing post. A track that suits a horse like Bobs Worth very well. It did turn into something of a sprint though. I thought Sir Des Champs ran well enough in what was basically his first run of the season. He jumped the first few very big and I'd say WP has spent more time schooling than working him since his fall. On a side note, I thought it was a nice touch from Barry G to canter past the stand on Bobs Worth, the Leop crowd love a champion. |
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The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup
Class 1, Grade 1, £550,000, Friday, March 14th. 3m 2f. 110yds. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 343/1-13 AL FEROF (FR) 9 John Hales Paul Nicholls FP1-113 ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE (FR) 9 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 21/11-61 BOBS WORTH (IRE) 9 The Not Afraid Partnership Nicky Henderson 3/F1115- BOG WARRIOR (IRE) 10 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE 2/11FF-1 BOSTON BOB (IRE) 9 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 12264-3 CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 10 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs 251-02U CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 9 Mark Boothright Martin Keighley 103-101 CLOUDY TOO (IRE) 8 Formulated Polymer Products Ltd Sue Smith 112-312 CUE CARD 8 Jean Bishop Colin Tizzard 12F-415 DEDIGOUT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE 1121-25 DYNASTE (FR) 8 John White David Pipe 213-342 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE 11UB-13 HARRY TOPPER 7 D J Keyte Kim Bailey 204-161 HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) 7 Mrs Julian Blackwell Venetia Williams 0211-F4 KATENKO (FR) 8 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams UP-5125 KNOCKARA BEAU (IRE) 11 Alistair Charlton George Charlton 3P1111/- LAST INSTALMENT (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Philip Fenton IRE 132-54U LONG RUN (FR) 9 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson 1231-00 LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) 8 Dr Ronan Lambe Jim Culloty IRE 2F423-5 LYREEN LEGEND (IRE) 7 Lyreen Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE 132234/- MEDERMIT (FR) 10 The Dunkley & Reilly Partnership Alan King 13P-341 MONBEG DUDE (IRE) 9 Oydunow Michael Scudamore 4141-U4 MOUNT BENBULBEN (IRE) 9 Barry Connell Gordon Elliott IRE 21113-2 ROCKY CREEK (IRE) 8 The Johnson & Stewart Families Paul Nicholls 1-F21P2 ROI DU MEE (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE U222-23 RUBI BALL (FR) 9 SC Ecurie Madame Patrick Papot Willie Mullins IRE 11F3-31 SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) 8 Potensis Limited & Chris Giles Paul Nicholls 06203-0 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 10 Conyers, O'Reilly, Roddis, Zeffman Rebecca Curtis 240-0U5 THE GIANT BOLSTER 9 Simon Hunt David Bridgwater FP1-332 THEATRE GUIDE (IRE) 7 Jean Bishop Colin Tizzard 121-153 TIDAL BAY (IRE) 13 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls 5145/4-4 TIME FOR RUPERT (IRE) 10 Littlecote Racing Partnership Paul Webber 301-131 TRIOLO D'ALENE (FR) 7 Mr & Mrs Sandy Orr Nicky Henderson 114-310 UNIONISTE (FR) 6 John Hales Paul Nicholls 125-UF1 VINO GRIEGO (FR) 9 Chris Stedman Gary Moore P06-52P WAYWARD PRINCE 10 John & Hilary Parrott Hilary Parrott 36 entries 11 Irish-trained |
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Thanks BJG. Arvika is an odd entry. Just a waste of Ricci's money surely.
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Is First Lieutenant overpriced at 12/1 nrnb? You'd think he'd be shorter if he lines up.
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As a chaser on the real big day, there's always one to beat him. 1 from 11 in grade 1's since going fencing and that was at liverpool.
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See Al Ferof has been put up in the weekender at 20/1, personally i see no reason why he wouldn't be gold cup bound and should run in the race. I am not a purchaser of the paper but seen it on the front cover in the local tescos lol.
Cheltenham is his track after all and also think he is value even now at 16s. |
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I like Al Ferof, especially round Cheltenham, but after the King George the vibes seemed to suggest that he'd run in the Ryanair. Since then, however, Nicholls has said he'll run in the Denman Chase, with that race being the deciding factor. I don't think I'd want to back him without nrnb yet, but I suppose 14/1 nrnb isn't a bad price. If he wins at Newbury, he'll be shorter, whereas if he doesn't he'll probably run in the Ryanair and your stake will be returned.
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When is PW due to stick up the GC tip or have I missed it, don't follow him....got to be a strong possibility it will be AF though.....I'll have to back AF before he's due to stick one up because I think he's a good chance to relish the trip after the last time and with the very real chance that he's got more improvement in him after the setback.
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I just think he is a stayer, Kempton is not his course and already has festival form in the book, what's not to like? I have taken the risk, as have taken the view that gold is the right and only race for him at this stage in his career, big chance this years race could cut up quite a bit.
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I agree,if he runs as those of us think/hope he will next time upped in trip he'll be clear 3rd fav....if not, then it's dough done, there's only a couple of realistic winners at the moment plus him....16's is more than fair with the staying question still to answer.
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