Cheltenham Festival
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current champ and fav bobs worth must go close again all going well ,a no frills dour stayer who jumps well, loves the course , and does does just enough to get the job done will be a tough nut to crack next march, .
sir dechamps and first lieutenant both ran cracking a race last year and will have their supporters but sir des champs price is a bit short for me but he must go well again , first lieutenant is a decent price and could well run go close this time but jut a doubt about the trip imo.
long run, been there done, but not much room for improvement now .
one who interests me greatly at the moment is tony martins jewson winner beneficent , a graded winner over timber and excellent form in high class novice chases ,he is normally an excellent jumper and races prominently, he looked to have plenty of stamina and could well improve for a step up in trip ,judging by the way he stayed on when headed by dynaste and captain conan on the turn to the last in the jewson ,he looked beaten when pased by those 2 highly rated horses but battled on really well up the hill and won going away in the shape of a horse that will relish further ,he seems to prefer goodish ground and he may be a tad underated as he dosent seem to win impressively but keeps giving plenty and always seems to pop up at big prices .
he blew out at the punchestown festival and run no sort of race, but he may not be happy going right handed or may just have been over the top . at around 80s on here at the moment (120 and 100s was available for buttons this morning ) put it this way if this seasons novices are above average then i cant see why he is a much bigger price than dynaste and captain conan who he beat fair and square imo .selection beneficent win and place 80s or betteron here .good luck .
sir dechamps and first lieutenant both ran cracking a race last year and will have their supporters but sir des champs price is a bit short for me but he must go well again , first lieutenant is a decent price and could well run go close this time but jut a doubt about the trip imo.
long run, been there done, but not much room for improvement now .
one who interests me greatly at the moment is tony martins jewson winner beneficent , a graded winner over timber and excellent form in high class novice chases ,he is normally an excellent jumper and races prominently, he looked to have plenty of stamina and could well improve for a step up in trip ,judging by the way he stayed on when headed by dynaste and captain conan on the turn to the last in the jewson ,he looked beaten when pased by those 2 highly rated horses but battled on really well up the hill and won going away in the shape of a horse that will relish further ,he seems to prefer goodish ground and he may be a tad underated as he dosent seem to win impressively but keeps giving plenty and always seems to pop up at big prices .
he blew out at the punchestown festival and run no sort of race, but he may not be happy going right handed or may just have been over the top . at around 80s on here at the moment (120 and 100s was available for buttons this morning ) put it this way if this seasons novices are above average then i cant see why he is a much bigger price than dynaste and captain conan who he beat fair and square imo .selection beneficent win and place 80s or betteron here .good luck .
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Boston Bob for me at the prices.
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If Al Ferof is fit and well and aimed at the race think he will go well.S Conti only other at the prices.
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There will be a lot of head scratchers to ponder over the winter but for me this isn't one of them...Bobs Worth is bomb proof for me and a highly likely winner again.
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yeah duffy bobs worth is an obvious major threat and without doubt the one to beat,but at around 3or 4s he is not for me ,although i can see the attraction as i dont think we have seen the best of him yet . also think there may be a lot more to come from this horse .
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lincth i was one of al ferofs supporters for the race last season and if he is none the worse for his setback then he is also a strong player and a decent price to boot .good luck !
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Foyles
In that case I'll nominate Mount Benbulben at 100+, think that when everything clicks as punchestown last april he's a bit of a monster, plenty of improvement to come...just needs to learn to do it left handed  |
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yes duffy worse bets than benbulben at smaller odds,hopefully a few more to come out of the woodwork ,
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Sir Des Champs can take this if the ground is good and Davy isn't broken up before the race. McCoy never got him jumping last time, but it was also the ground, he hates it and to trade odds on like he did showed his class.
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I AGREE NEIL,think good ground and he will go away from them when bobs hits his flat spot
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I'm a Silviniaco Conti fan believing he would have won the GC if he didn't fall. I understand I'm in the minority thinking that, so given his subsequent flop at Aintree I am surprised he is best priced 10/1. He'll have Jacob as well so another variable plus Al Ferof could end up as Nichols GC horse. Just shocking he's so short given all those imponderables.
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yes rg ,his price in the betting seems to reflect that he may well have gone very close had he stood up in the gold cup ,was going well and who knows what would have happened ,good luck !
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Bobs Worth will go off odds on and win,if he stays healthy.
No way can LR or SDC beat BW at the festival. Imo Conti was tired when he fell, Ruby knows it,Got beat by Menorah at Aintree Harry topper could be one to keep an eye on |
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Al ferof this horse so special reminds me a bit of neptune collonges. His paddy power victory was really eye catching 3 horses managed to finish in a big field like that its unheard of. He didn't have a handy weight either he motored through the soft ground. Nicholls has had a few decent chasers in his time hes putting this horse up for the king george and his big goal is the goal cup. By the way the way he jumped out of the heavy ground in the pp was breathtaking.
If anyone can beat BW its this guy. Don't get me wrong I love BW had a heavy bet in the Hennessy and the gold cup. Realistically everything has its work cut out to beat him. I don't see any of the horses last year up to it in the parade ring after they looked beaten horses. |
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I'm on Cue Card at 33/1 and 25/1 non runner free bet and I am convinced they will try the Gold Cup route this year
I predict they will go to the King George and front run as he did in the Ascot Chase and Ryan Air. As long as it's not desperately heavy I have no fears If you go through the form with First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth himself from the RSA (BW win), Lexus, Hennessey and the 2013 Gold Cup plus the Newbury race where BW just nutted CC on the line in receipt of 7lbs then you can see that there is very little between BW and Cue Card Many will think that Cue Card won't stay and that's fair enough but if he were to win the King George, or even go close, there is absolutely no way he would be 25/1 in the Gold Cup. He might even appreciate going slower over the longer trip and if he could his speed at the end he would hard to beat. Do not forget he has won twice at the Festival (shitt up both times)and was second to the highest rated chaser in training in the Arkle (Kicking king also was second in the Arkle two years before winning the Gold Cup). I want to see him win a 3 mile chase, preferably a Grade 1, and then I will be super confident especially if it's good ground on the day. The horse is massively under rated on 172. Beat First Lieutenant 9 lengths and is rated 172, BW beat the same horse 8.5 lengths giving a pound and is rated 180. That's not right. 33/1, Free bet if he don't run? That's a no brainer because if he runs he won't be that price for sure |
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Th collateral form continues. BW beats SDC 7 lengths, SDC is rated 173. SDC and FL were separated by half a length in the Lexus. CC beats FL 9 lengths yet is rated lower than SDC.
CC gets closer to SS in two chases than any other horse in training, 7 lengths and 4 lengths, SS rated 188 officially but CC only 172 All the collateral form points to CC being closer to 180 than 170 and he has improved with every chase (apart from getting lit up in the KG) and he will be a perfect 8 years old in March 2014 - the most successful age in the Gold Cup |
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Dynaste for me and single figures when he hopefully wins the king george....
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SNA - Dynaste at Cheltenham. Not for me. Fully understand backing him for King George round Kempton. Although my KG horse is Al Ferof. Had a decent bet on Dynaste for what looked a weak Jewson in March and he was well beaten by Benefficient when perfectly placed to go on and win. Just didnt get up the hill very well. Against better opposition and over a few furlongs longer I would not have Dynaste in top three. All abour opinions.
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agree with a lot what you are saying about cue card judorick ,in fact i tipped him and backed him at mad prices for the king george (over 100/1 ,but circumstances ie.heavy going and getting buzzed up early were against him ! thats racing ! had a cracking trade on him so no losses , will be looking to back a few more at biggish prices in the gold cup and king george and hopefully beneficent will trade a lot lower as the season goes on ,good luck with cue card .
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yeah cheers Foyle, likewise with your punts
I keep hearing support for Al Ferof, Dynaste and the like but I am not worried about them in the slightest, can't wait to find out what happens My strategy is low risk, as I say, either CC lines up which means he must have shown enough and therefore his price will be much shorter (and I will lay off my stake) or he doesn't line up if they think it's not his race. No brainer to take all the 25/1 you can with the free bet offer |
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I always like a second season chaser, so it's either Dynaste (who will be an 8yo) but preference is for Harry Topper who I have snaffled at 80/1 (who will be a 7yo which is perfect).
Boston Bob will be 9yo so that puts me off him. |
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Ming
So it was you I was fighting against for the fancy prices on Harry Topper!! Good luck to the both of us - he'll be in single fingers after he wins the Hennessy! |
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lol rogerthebutler!
Harry Topper is rated 150 now and KBailey not only said he is his best since Master Oats but he still filling his frame physically so I am hoping he is a good thing.  |
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from r.post today....tony martin indicated that he marginaly prefered going for the 3m 1f charlie hall chase instead of staying in ireland for the jn wine .com champion chase at down royal jewson winner beneficient .
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2nd season chasers have a great record in this race during the last 20years.
Bobs Worth Long Run Denman War Of Attrition Kicking King Best Mate Looks Like Trouble Mr Mullligan Imperial Call Jodami All winning in their first season out of Novice company. The Fellow & See More Business are the only two horses who were beaten the year before (Kauto Star did but was already a winner) to come back and win the race. Of the other 4 winners, Master Oats. 3rd season chaser. lightly raced. Proven stayer. Course form. Cool Dawn. Surprise winner. Festival form (2nd in foxhunter) Imperial Commander. 3rd season chaser. Course and festival form. Synchronised. 3rd season chaser. Proven stayer. Poor renewal. I |
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Horse I have never really taken to is Boston Bob,but after watching the RSA ive changed my mind somewhat,think he would have won the race, and the extra distance of the Gold Cup will be right up his street. Still don't know if hes good enough but nrfb at 25 just could be value.
Don't know of any plans for him at the moment,but 3m2 at Chelt could be tailor made for him. Worth a dabble imo. |
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I think that Cue Card bet could be fantastic given his potential over 3 miles, everything about him suggests that he should stay the trip as long as he settles unlike the King George last year when his chance was gone after half a mile. I think BW will take all the beating this year but should be a good race with last years competing horses as well as Cue Card, Al Ferof, Dynaste, First Lieutenant, Benneficient and don't forget Lord Windermere won the RSA well last year. I think he's more likely to be a Bostons Angel than a Bobs Worth but he could prove me wrong.
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Agree with you y2j regarding Cue Card. I backed him for last years Gold Cup but his run in the King George killed any chance of that. I hope they train him for the race this year but I've a feeling they will stick to the Ryanair again.
Budd. I wasn't taken with the novices last year but i agree with you regarding Boston Bob. I think he would have won the RSA last season and the further he goes the better he looks. Definitely worth a play at 25's |
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beneficient didnt stay have redded out ........back to the drawing bord
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Do you think so Foyles. Not saying he has any chance in the GC, but was beat today at 2m4f?
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Agree boston bob is an out and out stayer but hard to se him beating bobs worth.
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What about tidal bay? 50/1 with betvictor nrfb?
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No way was that as good as Benefficient is imo.He may not stay 3m2 at Cheltenham of course,but I aint taking yesterdays performance as whether he stays or not,he looked to me in need of the race,and blew up,was maybe using a bit too much earlier in the race as well.
I will wait till his next couple of runs before judging. |
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Fools,
Last season I believe TB was going to run in the WHurdle before the Grand National,much to my disappointment.Maybe that would be the plan again? Hope they do think about the Gold Cup though,he deserves a crack at it. Nowt to do with my huge odds on here of course  Mind you I have big odds on the WH as well!! |
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Using Wayward Prince as a benchmark, nothing in the Charlie Hall yesterday will have an impact in the Gold Cup imo (unless something is found wrong with Long Run).
I'd be amazed in Beneficient was ever good enough to be near the front in a Gold Cup. |
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Harry Topper is far more likely to have an impact in the Gold Cup than Long Run I'm afraid even if they do find a problem with him.
Seems people are saying the going is very important for Harry Topper though and most years the going is good in the Gold Cup. Even if he got his going he probably needs to improve 20lbs+ from the Charlie Hall form. He is only 6 and will a perfect 7yo come March and it has been done before so he's not beyond hope although it is a very stiff ask especially if he needs soft going |
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I thought Bennificient looked like he didn't stay the trip yesterday, I might be wrong but I was under the impression he'd already had a run on the flat as a prep for the race so he can't really be given the excuse of needing the run, just looked like the tank emptied. Harry Topper looks like an out and stayer similar to Synchronised (jumping ability as well) so think the horses like Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs with a touch more class might have to run below par for him to win a Gold Cup
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Nicholls today on Tidal Bay.........We will forget hes 12 going on 13 and treat him as an 8yr old and run him like a Gold Cup horse.
Will look at the Betfair chase,King George and Lexus. 50/1 nrfb for Gold Cup. |
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whose the oldest ever winner of the Gold Cup?
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don't know mate,but I doubt many 13 yr olds have
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