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Worthy fav, but crazy price IMO. Couldn't imagine him being much shorter than 3-1 comeMarch tbh!
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well HF went off odds on in 2012 and if TNO shows enough on the track he could go off very short if nothing emerges, especially if Our Conor fails to sparkle
be fascinating to see what happens |
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no horse dispatches a horse like rock on ruby like that fit or unfit. I had a few quid @ 7/1 nrfb before the race for the champion hurdle, this horses turn of foot is crazy really fancy it now.
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Remember Rock on Ruby's first run of last season when in a great battle with Zarkandar and Grandouet, so we know what he's capable of fitness wise on his reappearance.
The way that The New One completely blew him away in a matter of strides this afternoon was breathtaking. RoR is a good yardstick. Beating him 10 lengths eased down under those conditions is seriously impressive. |
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It was very impressive by TNO, but RoR was being eased down as well when his chance was gone.
I'm sure it will be much closer next time. Just before the CH, RoR was about to get stuffed out of sight by Darlan, but then went on to run second in a CH. I wouldn't write him off yet, the one that matters is the Tuesday in march and not today. |
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am tempted to take some of the 25/1 e/w on ROR still though, horses for courses.
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I too think 25's is very good ew value on RoR, that's almost 9 times the price of TNO. I think theres been a slight overreaction based on what is a tiny steeping stone at the start of the season
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Fools, if you knew ROR was a def starter for the CH then 25/1 EW is a great price as he hasn't been out of the frame at 3 festivals. In fact he hasn't been out of the 1st 3 except for his debut NHF. However, he was put firmly in his place today and they may decide to go for the Arkle.
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A horse that stays further comfortably with a turn of foot over 2m,TNO is an ideal Churdle horse for sure,much like ROR has been last couple of years.
Early days and we will learn a lot more as the others play their cards,but if I were on TNO before today,i would be quiet content at this stage. No idea how fit both horses were today,but I suspect both will improve for their first run as horses normally do,and for me its difficult to see ROR reversing that,but as others have said he will probably be at his best come March. |
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I'd say today was all about 100 yards for RoR.
I can't see RoR turning that form around. The race was put to bed in 1/2 a furlong. Harry Fry has had the sense to put RoR to the sword nice and early in the season. Plenty of time to sort a novice chasing season if the owners fancy that route. TNO may have improved a little over earlier in the year...but he was a very, very good horse then. Looks the heir apparent for the Champion Hurdle crown. 5/1 is very generous still |
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Well,we have last years champ,Our Conor,Jezki and MTOY yet to be seen,so whilst TNO was good today,5/1 being generous is debatable all the time he has those serious threats up against him,imo.
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i didn't like the way mtoy travelled up the hill couldn't have him
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Significant point made earlier about RoR being out v early in the season.
If I remember correctly, before the Arkle Fitzy said that NH thought Simonsig would at least place in the CH. After the Arkle, NH in the interview said Simonsig was a genuine 2 miler and he will/have to settle in his races. On the back of these comments, record of Neptune winners and lack of obvious opps over 2m chases i've had a pop at a big price. Who Knows? |
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So ROR needs a breathing operation. Does that mean TNO was flattered on Sunday at Kempton or that ROR was fitter than first thought and they can't believe how far he was beat? Not sure what to think, but TNO looked pretty good to me.
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My gut feeling is that they are a tad bemused/disappointed with ROR,and are looking at all angles to get him as they think he should be.I would not be worried if I were on TNO at prices before that race,but not sure I would be taking 5,s to find out.
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4/1 TNO must surely herald the silly season. Cut from 7/1 on the strength of beating ROR who, by his trainer's admission, is harder to get fit these days, ran without blinkers and is likely to undergo a breathing operation after his poor showing, is an overreaction in extreme. Even if TNO shows himself to be number one in England (and MTOY may well contest that spot) it would be strange indeed if a couple out of Hurricane Fly, Our Conor, Jetzki, Annie Power and Un De Sceaux don't arrive in March with tremendous chances. This will be a season when each trial is likely to cause shifts in the market, with a succession of favourites being likely. And if anyone thinks that a virtual two runner race at Kempton in October is likely to have a bearing, I think they'll find it an expensive view. Even if you fancy TNO, better prices await.
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Couldnt agree more cyclops.
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Tbf they are considering a breathing operation is they are desperate to find a reason for the absolute hammering ROR received. I agree that 4/1 isn't generous but the market was wrong to start off with. There was no reason why Our connor deserved to be 5/1 fav with TNO at 8s or HF at 11/2. If they were 5/1 the four of them now it would probably make more sense. Those on at 8s or 10s have a decent bet though as he has put himself right in the mix.
I can see the fly putting our connor in his place at some stage and it will be all change again. |
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Any thoughts on Hurricane Fly today? Bound to come on for the run I'd guess?
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Nothing more than a training run with a bit of a sprint at the end. Less than 100%, and will have bigger days ahead to get wound up for. A perfectly aceptable pipe-opener. Will improve markedly around December / January time, where he will face stiffer challenges.
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Without reading any of the above, this is a 4 horse race this season imho!
The New One, MTOY, The fly, Our Conor - to which i have 8/1 from last march |
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Incidentally, was a while ago now, but what do we make of the Our Conor run on the flat lto? Was he just blatantly not fit or something else come out of the woodwork afterwards? It kinda went under the radar for me a little bit as i was still concentrating on flat season then.
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I would add Melodic,Un de Sceaux and Annie Power to that list.
All improving and by any amount. |
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And maybe Jezki.
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Yeah thought it was a respectable first run from HF for which he was pushed out by some firms. He only really did enough in the same race last year. I would expect him to improve over the next few months. Still right in the mix as you would expect, write off the best hurdler of his generation at your peril.
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yep,jezki as well.
Could be a classic!! |
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cyclops 29 Oct 13 15:21 Joined: 11 Apr 02 | Topic/replies: 221 | Blogger: cyclops's blog
4/1 TNO must surely herald the silly season. Cut from 7/1 on the strength of beating ROR who, by his trainer's admission, is harder to get fit these days, ran without blinkers and is likely to undergo a breathing operation after his poor showing, is an overreaction in extreme. Even if TNO shows himself to be number one in England (and MTOY may well contest that spot) it would be strange indeed if a couple out of Hurricane Fly, Our Conor, Jetzki, Annie Power and Un De Sceaux don't arrive in March with tremendous chances. This will be a season when each trial is likely to cause shifts in the market, with a succession of favourites being likely. And if anyone thinks that a virtual two runner race at Kempton in October is likely to have a bearing, I think they'll find it an expensive view. Even if you fancy TNO, better prices await. Remember when Donald McCain made a whole host of excuses for Peddlers after he got thrashed? Sometimes these things are difficult to accept. The fact is, as a novice, TNO very nearly beat horses like Zarkandar. He is the real deal. |
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Our Conor is the shocking price amongst the front 4. He's recently been beaten in a flat handicap off 86, and is up against it as a 5yo. He should be a 12/1 chance not 5s. I've been place laying him for a while though there is never much money there.
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I was a fan of Jezki's after winning at Leopardstown last season, i backed him for the supreme after that run and seemed to remember i had a stonking price. But i have gone off him a little bit since. At double fig price he would go into my book though, just to cover all basis!
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Stat. Only 3 horses who won either the triumph, the neptune, or the supreme, (120 horses) have succeeded in winning the champion hurdle the following season.
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I don't know why Rock On Ruby isn't considered a contender.....I'm not expecting him to win it.....but considering he's won the race and was only beat a length or so last season having set a fast pace for himself, you can't leave him out of your list.
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Presume that stat is for the last 40 years? Completely off the top of my head but are the 3 Hardy Esutace, Istabraq and Katchit which would mean no horse has followed up a win in the Supreme with a win in the Champion in the last 40 years?
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Rock on Ruby is a contender,but he has to show hes as good as he was to be a major one imo.
Cant think of a supreme winner to win the following Champion Hurdle for ages, can only think of HE and Istabraq to win the Neptune and the following CH,and can only think of Katchit to do likewise with the triumph. So that stat seems pretty accurate to me. |
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Ive just watched last seasons supreme, commentator says, my tent or yours is pulling ap's arms out just before three out, jezki stays on best of the rest, champagne fever is now over fences, mtoy didnt win the supreme so i guess the stat about champ hdls cant be won from previous bumper/supreme/triumph horses dont count to him but i was wrong about jezki about not liking him its a 5 horse race, my apologies but if mtoy stays sound he will be carrying my jackpot money for sure i am a big fan!
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Its really difficult right now to be confident about choosing a winner of a race in March,especially one as competitive as this one looks like it will be,but if I had to name my most likely one it would be The New One.
Speed and stamima are a lethal combination in the CH,he has both. Mind you so does the champ,and ROR if he can get back to his best.Melodic Rendezvous could be another one if he proves up to this level,which is possible. The likes of MTOY,Our Conor and Jezki have plenty of speed but I would be concerned about them getting home in a true run Churdle. |
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theres only 1 winner imo and that is TNO, HF did not impress me yesterday and I think if jezki had run the headlines today would be completely diferent....
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Not read all the replies so apologies if I repeat.
Surely Mullins must know how much HF is better than Champagne Fever which will tell him if he can beat MTOY. Do I think HF is better than CF? You bet I do. Then there is the hype horse, The New One. It beat an under performing ROR. However I seem to recall someone from the Mullins camp saying pre Cheltenham "if Zarkander beats HF I will walk down high street naked" or something similar. Needless to say HF wins, Zark nowhere. NTO Zark beats TNO over, what looked at the time, the perfect trip for the Twister horse. So Mullins knows he can beat TNO. Next Our Connor. Triumph winners have an appalling record the following year and I don't care how well it won. Nothing has convinced me it was an exceptional triumph. It has also picked up an injury so a waiting brief is best. Now I know all the doubters will be saying it was not really that impressive yesterday but go back to the same race last year and it was struggling to get the better of Go Native so be warned. HF will take some beating |
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You are forgetting that all these horses are improving,how much we don't know but they will be improving.
HF will not be improving. He may still be the best come March,but no way would I use last years form as a reason to determine how the novices will turn out and to determine the likely winner next March. |
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The horses you say have no chance through various lines of form were novices last year. They are open to any amount of improvement this season.
Hurricane Fly may well be too good for them but he could be vulnerable to a younger horse around Cheltenham. |
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The horses you say have no chance through various lines of form were novices last year. They are open to any amount of improvement this season.
Hurricane Fly may well be too good for them but he could be vulnerable to a younger horse around Cheltenham. |