Maybe forget the stats then, and actually work hard on the form and use some imagination with unexposed types.
Failing that dont bother with the race if you aint got your stats!!

Thanks BJG - where did you see that?

buddeliea 22 Jan 14 07:46 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 9,746 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Maybe forget the stats then, and actually work hard on the form and use some imagination with unexposed types.
Failing that dont bother with the race if you aint got your stats!!
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Can utilise form fromn all angles but at the end of the day, this is one of the biggest stats races in the calendar.

Ballycasey could go hose up in the Moriarty or Morning Assembly could have a warm-up and then we're back on. These are the only two that make any appeal to me but I'm wondering about how good Morning Assembly is as he was beat by Carlingford Lough who's only won 2 out of 12 chases.

Ballycasey's price has held firm all throughout this and it would drop like a stone if he won next month. They almost did it with Boston Bob last year when he won the Moriarty, went to the Festival with two runs and fell at the last when leading.

The one I think should be targeted at this, and he's running in the Moriarty so could still be, is Don Cossack. He'd pretty much top the trends profile and russell said after his last race that he's only just coming to himself.

I know the trainer has been suggesting sticking to two and a half but the way he travels and jumps I really think a strongly run 3m would really suit

Ah, right. We shall see then.

RSA CHASE

Grade 1, £150,000. Wednesday, March 12th. 3m. 110yds.

Form Horse Age Owner Trainer

551621 ANNACOTTY (IRE) 6 Liz Prowting Martin Keighley
220-231 ARDKILLY WITNESS (IRE) 8 Chris Stedman & Dr Richard Newland Dr Richard Newland
1/113-1 BALLYCASEY (IRE) 7 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
262153 BALNASLOW (IRE) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
2/2321/-0 BATONNIER (FR) 8 Raymond Mould Alan King
311-F11 BENVOLIO (IRE) 7 Dobson, Sutton & Woodhouse Paul Nicholls
5-01112 BLACK THUNDER (FR) 7 Donlon, MacDonald, Fulton & Webb Paul Nicholls
3213-15 BRIGHT NEW DAWN (IRE) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE
P-21221 CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) 8 J P McManus John Kiely IRE
033022 CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 6 J P McManus Gordon Elliott IRE
3113-13 CHAMPAGNE FEVER (IRE) 7 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
332-111 CORRIN WOOD (IRE) 7 Dermot Hanafin Donald McCain
1/33F-51 DIOCLES (IRE) 8 L G M Racing Donald McCain
U1124-1 DJAKADAM (FR) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
F23-121 DON COSSACK (GER) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
613211 DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) 8 Options O Syndicate Nigel Twiston-Davies
111-321 DRESSEDTOTHENINES (IRE) 7 J P McManus Eddie Harty IRE
4113-01 EDMUND KEAN (IRE) 7 Walters Plant Hire, James & Jean Potter David Pipe
31-2131 FOXROCK (IRE) 6 Barry Connell Ted Walsh IRE
220F11 GARDEFORT (FR) 5 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams
111P6-1 GEVREY CHAMBERTIN (FR) 6 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds III David Pipe
22-1112 GREEN FLAG (IRE) 7 John R Adam Lucinda Russell
52F-153 GULLINBURSTI (IRE) 8 Nick Mustoe Emma Lavelle
124-32U HOLYWELL (IRE) 7 Mrs Gay Smith Jonjo O'Neill
122-214 JUST A PAR (IRE) 7 Graham Roach & Paul Barber Paul Nicholls
264-112 LE BEC (FR) 6 Tim Syder Emma Lavelle
1-U1U34 LE REVE (IRE) 6 Pat Betts Lucy Wadham
1-104F0 LIVING NEXT DOOR (IRE) 8 John Breslin Tony Martin IRE
12P-121 MANY CLOUDS (IRE) 7 Trevor Hemmings Oliver Sherwood
F/-111 MENDIP EXPRESS (IRE) 8 The Mendip Syndicate Harry Fry
3/12-01F MILBOROUGH (IRE) 8 Pinehurst Stud Tim Vaughan
1F1-112 MORNING ASSEMBLY (IRE) 7 Clipper Logistics Group Ltd Pat Fahy IRE
1-502F1 MULLAGHANOE RIVER (IRE) 6 Patricia Hunt Noel Meade IRE
04-2231 NO BUTS 6 Wontcostalot Partnership David Bridgwater
1114-2P O'FAOLAINS BOY (IRE) 7 Trembath, Hyde, Outhart & Hill Rebecca Curtis
106-13P ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE
5(1)03-31 SAM WINNER (FR) 7 Angela Yeoman Paul Nicholls
501311 SAMINGARRY (FR) 7 Pearce Bros 1 Nigel Hawke
0-1146P SHRAPNEL (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
114-124 SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (IRE) 7 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
30-2422 SI C'ETAIT VRAI (FR) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE
2125-12 SIZING GOLD (IRE) 7 Alan & Ann Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE
3233-U1 SMAD PLACE (FR) 7 Trish Andrews Alan King
213200 SPRING HEELED (IRE) 7 Dr Ronan Lambe Jim Culloty IRE
111-5 SUNTIEP (FR) 8 Jim Ennis Willie Mullins IRE
6-11321 TAQUIN DU SEUIL (FR) 7 Martin Broughton & Friends 1 Jonjo O'Neill
126-221 THE ITALIAN YOB (IRE) 6 The Macaroni Beach Society Nick Williams
031-131 THE PAPARRAZI KID (IRE) 7 Byerley Thoroughbred Racing Willie Mullins IRE
12//14-22 TOUCH THE EDEN (FR) 7 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
P1-1224 UP TO SOMETHING (FR) 6 E M G Roberts Charlie Longsdon
2315-11 UXIZANDRE (FR) 6 J P McManus Alan King
26-F114 VIA SUNDOWN (FR) 6 The Old Brokers Gary Moore
10-1112 WONDERFUL CHARM (FR) 6 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls
06-1FF1 WRONG TURN (IRE) 8 John Breslin Tony Martin IRE

54 entries
22 Irish-trained

Timeform Top 5 Master Ratings:
154p CHAMPAGNE FEVER
152+ DON COSSACK
151p WONDERFUL CHARM
150 CARLINGFORD LOUGH
149 CORRIN WOOD

Had a little nibble on Anacotty this morning 25/1 NRFB.

If he were to win today at HQ over 2m5f in a big(ish) handicap I think people will have to take him seriously as an RSA horse.

He's in the Jewson and RSA but would have no chance in the Jewson, and I hope this race can put him spot on.

If he runs a shocker, NRFB is a bit of insurance.

Mullins stated in the RP this week that he'd had a small setback, was back doing fast work and they'd try and get him ready for the Moriarty

He's gone from 9/9.5 to 10!! Wouldn't exactly call that 'on the slide'!!

Don't get me wrong, I've expressed my concerns about the lack of races he's had this season but I'd only really call it a slide once he can be backed at 12/13+

8/1 is the best price I can see on oddschecker. Agree he wants better ground and he'll get that at chelt, just maybe not before. Wouldn't surprise me if they found something different for CF now the arkle is back on the agenda

I've got £10 at 36's, a free £100 ride on here, £10 @ 14's and 25's in a £10 ew double with Faugheen @ 14's.

Won't lose much if he doesn't show but god I'd love to have the thrill of watching him in the RSA if Faugheen wins the Neptune. Having said that, if he does turn up I think he's a highly unlikely winner due to the lack of experience not just over fences but races in general.

Gut feeling is he'll show up but I'll be backing something else on the day

My only two RSA bets are in the race. Would like to see Ballycasey just edge don Cossack, with both putting on good performances thus cementing their RSA places!! I'm allowed to dream

"Up against a couple of potential rivals,hope he runs well and cements his place at the head of the market."




For the 4 miler !

I heard Patrick Mullins nickname at home is Ballcasey boy.

Mullins has said Suntiep goes for the four miler and I doubt they'll step Ballycasey up to four miles after a run over 2m 5f. That would leave them without an RSA runner unless Djackadam or Champagne Fever step up in trip. Of course, we probably won't know for sure until final declaration time!

pretty sure no supplements in rsa

Graeme83
Graeme83 07 Feb 14 17:04 Joined: 21 Sep 07 | Topic/replies: 8,318 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog
"Up against a couple of potential rivals,hope he runs well and cements his place at the head of the market."




For the 4 miler !
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To all those who may take offence- my apologies but this is the boy who claims he knows everything

If he doesnt run a big race its 4 miles or nothing. Whoosh to ballymrsdoyle the thicko. Go take a step up in the world by collecting shopping trolleys. You only play the book. If you were restricted to one horse a race youd not be on here.