First Lietenant

It's a bit ridiculous that they haven't announced which race yet...

Waiting for Nesbitt to give Davy the ok for the Ryanair.

Bet of the meeting if he runs in the Ryanair imo.

I'm frankly amazed that so many people think this horse is a good bet

yes you can spin the form to make an argument if you like but on the bare facts he is entirely opposable. 2 wins from 11 chases and never won a chase outside Novice company, not won any race since Nov 2011 (clearly that means not won a race this season), not run for 75 days, prefers good ground... I don't see much to make him backable apart from an interpretation of what he might do and if he runs in the Ryan Air the Irish have a miserable record in the Cathcart/Ryan Air combined 1 winners since 1973 - clearly well fancied and might well win but not attractive to me

each to their own though

The fact that he hasn't won many chases is a genuine negative but the it's the only negative in my book. Only two horses have finished in front of him at Cheltenham - Rock On Ruby and Bob's Worth. Festival form doesn't come much stronger that that.

This ground at this trip is ideal for him imo. He also had the exact same lay-off before finishing 2nd to BW last year so no worries there for me.

As SDC will not like the ground and has probably lost his chance of gold cup glory I think Gigginstown might leave him in the Gold Cup as FL will go on the ground.

how do you know SDC won't like the ground? How do you know what the going will be like? He's won a Grade 1 on heavy and he's pretty versatile, it's that good would have ideal but whatever the going the best horse normally wins. Why should it inconvenience him more than others? Just twisting the facts to suit your argument

Doesn't go on the ground?erm he's just won a Grade 1 on soft/heavy no?

Sir Des Champs recorded a career best on sft/hvy lto.

SDC not liking the ground is a joke right?  Career best RPR last time winning a Grade 1 on Irish "soft to heavy"?

If this is what FL Gold Cup backers are clinging onto then good luck with that one and buy a new formbook

This ground at this trip is ideal for him imo. He also had the exact same lay-off before finishing 2nd to BW last year so no worries there for me.

did not win though did he? Another one for the 'no prep race in last 60 days' stat which shows that  81% of all Festival winners ran within that time

Who would beat First Lieutenant in the Ryanair?who would stay up that hill better?for me he's one of the bets of the meeting

FL won the Neptune having not ran since December

FL won't get home in a soft ground GC. He'd struggle to see out that trip on good ground imo.

The current gold cup fav Bobs Worth has never even seen soft ground at the racecourse.
If there are any doubts against any of the GC runners where suitable going is  concerned then perhaps he should be first on the list.

Cue Card is going to p1ss all over the Ryan Air field, that's who Bally

Cue Card won't get up that hill and will chuck it.hes a definite lay him.should be in the 2m

you need a 3 miler to win this, which cue card isnt

There  is no way he will see out this trip.only 7yo not battle-heartened enough.First Lieutenant been running against better horses and guaranteed he sees out this trip

There  is no way he will see out this trip.only 7yo not battle-heartened enough.First Lieutenant been running against better horses and guaranteed he sees out this trip

To correct my earlier post - only one horse has finished in front of him at Cheltenham.

As a poster above asks, who beats him?

Last years winner doesn't love the track and has had his problems. SE goes for the CC. Cue card won't see it out anywhere near as well as FL will. Champion Court is solid but looks the type to place rather than win.  Menorah similar but less reliable.

RT is not a three miler, he won it, so did Albertas and he's not really a 3 miler

I've already demonstrated clearly that CC has quite a few pounds in hand on the bare form and on my Peak performance ratings he is 8lb clear

going to make all and bound up the hill

mark miwordz

"only 7yo not battle-heartened enough"






Deary me Bally. That's worse than your comment about flat breds being a negative in the triumph.

Albertas Run won the RSA mate

better horses? FECK OFF

Bobs Worth? Sprinter Sacre? who has FL run against that's better than them?

you're just making it up to suit your argument as usual, I'm not getting in an argument about the form but all this 'won't get up the hill' **** is just bollox

its how we interpret the 3 miles, AR won the RSA over 3 miles RT  finished 2nd in a KG over 3 miles, CC finished a distant 4th over 3 miles, if he had finished closer id be more confident but he didnt...

Think it fair to imagine that FL would be suited completely with the Ryanair trip and likely ground at that distance.
Think Cue Card will be ok with the trip as well,but in a fight up the hill i would prefer to be on FL.
Either could win though,and i expect one of them to do just that.

Erm no...I think you will find I said Our Conor wouldn't get home and being by Jeremy wouldn't be for me as is the fact that he hadn't won over 1m4 on flat like most recent winners in past years....that's a bit different.Anyway,please leave that to the Triumph thread for now

Champion Court has an interesting profile but don't understand why trainer ran him last month as its fooked him up

the form is so easy to interpret a kid could do it

FL will need to improve significantly on his form vs bobs worth to get close to cue card unless you're just ignoring the form book?

Hennessey FL got a pound and got beat 8.5 lengths
Cue Card GAVE 7lb and got beat a short head

In a 4 runner 2m4 last year

Here we go again, same old record. Ok Judo you're in love with Cue Card and anyone can see he's a good sort. Hate to burst your bubble but you can't "clearly demonstrate" anything as it's all about opinions and yours is not more valid than anyone else's. You seem to have the same choice in many races as me but there's no need to be throwing a strop every time someone says that SDC and Cue Card will be beaten. And for the avoidance of doubt I've been backing SDC since last September and think he's going to take all the beating.

cue card got beat over his ideal  trip by a 3 miler, is that the basis to your form judo?

It's all opinions but I think Bobs Worth wore Cue Card down in that over a furlong shorter than Ryanair and an easier run race?

I'd be concerned about Cue Card's jumping. He almost always makes at least one mistake and not many horses do that at the festival and win.

problem with that is the form is not conclusive.
Bobsworth ran againct CC at a distance too short for him,FL ran against Bobsworth at 3m2,which is 7furlongs more than the race they will be running in on Wednesday.
Its all about too twisted to take too literally imo

Alleged, i don't think you have to be a stayer to win the Ryanair. Thisthatandtother, Fondmort and Riverside Thetre are not stayers in my opinion. I think you have to look at the field and the conditions. The hill will bring stamina into play in the horse with the stamina is quick enough to stay with the horse who has less perceived stamina but may a better turn of foot.

Bolloxed the last post up. Stamina comes into play if the horse with stamina can stay with his rivals. Some times a horse with more toe can leave the better stayer behind before he gets to use it.

i think you have to stay at whatever trip at cheltenham, i do look for some 3m form lines when choosing my ryanair horse, lets remember it is a new race and 2 that you picked were early winners of the race

Albertas Run is the classic Ryanair horse,and he certainly stayed a bit further.

Judorick,

I know he hasn't won a race outside of novice company. But he stays, his cheltenham form is so solid with only Bob's Worth and Rock beating him. If the ground remains soft then surely he is in with a hell of a chance of the ryanair. Tidal Bay absolutely revels in soft ground and he only beat First Lieutenant by a head! And the Hennessy form where he finished behind Bob's Worth and Tidal Bay is probably the most consistent piece of form I have seen all season. If you fancy Bob's Worth for the Gold Cup then you have to fancy First Lieutenant for the ryanair in my opinion.

What you have to remember is that Ascot`s 22f takes some getting itself especially on soft ground.
Cue Card did well to beat Gold Cup bound & King George 2nd Captain Chris at Ascot despite that ones mistake (looked booked for 2nd in any case to my eye).
When Cue Card did`nt get home over 3m at Kempton the ground was as heavy as they have had at the track for the King George meeting since 1937.

I don't think the King George is conclusive at all about CC's stamina, he made a mess of the first which unsettled him and he pulled too hard after that.  Did well to stay in the race so long but I wouldn't conclude from that that he doesn't stay.  Was the only time in his career he has encountered genuinely heavy ground too which may have been a factor, though we know he acts well on soft.  He definitely stays this trip and is a high class chaser with a winning habit. He looks a very solid bet to me.

Re: FL, I'm still not convinced about the ground, the only time in his life he has run a RFR above 148 on ground described as softer  than GS was in the Lexus and the race times that day indicated the going was good on the hurdles course and G/S on the chase course, according to Raceform.  The Lexus was an odd race with SDc having such an off day jumping wise and surely the best horse in the race, I'm not getting too excited by it and a horse on a losing run of 8 is not for me in a hot grade 1 just based on that run.

Menorah is interesting if he jumps like he did at Kempton, I rate him the bigger danger to Cue Card.

the form is so easy to interpret a kid could do it

Seems that judo thinks we are like children, should be seen and not heard and do as we are told.

Now lets be good boys and girls now and do as he says .

The form book from 18 months ago is vital to this race so Cue Card must win the Ryanair

If Judorick is basing his opinion on a form line concerning Bobs Worth's first run over fences in a two and a half mile race he has a lot to learn.

I wouldn't judge Bobs Worth as being any where near his best in that Newbury run against Cue Card - he looked terrible in his coat in the Feltham a month later, was reportedly a sick horse during that period and it was only his class that saw him perform so well in both races so i doubt very much if he ran to a similar level of form in the Newbury race and the RSA. Also, the only races worth rating First Lieutenant in are at Cheltenham in my opinion as he's trained for one race a season. His two runs at the festival saw him beat the Champion Hurdle winner and narrowly edged out by the current Gold Cup favourite who arguably has the most progressive form this season. I have First Lieutenant at nice prices like most, i fully expect him to win well but have been backing Cue Card as he is a quality horse and it would be churlish of people to dismiss his chances but i do personally think the conditions of the race will favour First Lieutenant more which is why i expect him to win. The Irish stat is just one of those pointles stats in my eyes even if First Lieuteant gets beat - unless they breathe different air over in the Emerald City then to me it's irrelevant - perhaps the reason why that stat exists is that their better horses have been running in the Gold Cup (i.e. War of Attrition and Kicking Kick would have lagged up if either ran in the Ryanair).

It depends how the race is run, if Champion Court and Cue Card take each other on a bit then i expect First Lieutenant to cruise through between the 2nd last and last fence. If Cue Card gets a cheap lead then his speed might tell at the end and First Lieutenant might not go past. Overall though, I would rather have Mouse Morris than Colin Tizzard to prep one for a race like this at the festival and Davy Russell in the plate as opposed to Joe Tizzard. But pay as your money take your choice as they say.

yes Roo,i think he may regret saying that,especially as the form hes talking about does not reallly equate to the Ryanair,bobsworth running over 2m5,fl running over 3m2.
Not to be used too rigidly when discussing the Ryanair imo.

The scouser on the ATR review last night,said Cue Card had no chance in the Ryanair!!


Judo,
Your TV still in 1 piece?


Take no notice mate,hes a good chance.

Confirmed on racing post for Ryanair

Lovely

Bryan Cooper Festival rides
"I only ever had a mind to be a jump jockey," he admits. "I was never really interested in the Flat." Mother Nature must have been paying attention to the young lad's wishes as she provided him with a sudden growth-spurt and, without a winner on the Flat, he switched his attention to the winter code and moved permanently to Dessie Hughes.

His first ride over jumps came almost exactly a year after his opening Flat ride. He didn't need to wait long for his first winner (October 29, 2009) which arrived, fittingly, for his father aboard Rossdara at Clonmel.

It is hardly surprising – observing Bryan Cooper's style – that he cites Paul Carberry first as his role-model growing up, or that a race-analyst at the time described Cooper's first victory on board a notably tricky mare as "polished". However, it wasn't all fairytales and magic wands for the Kerry lad as not long afterwards he crashed out at Gowran Park, broke a wrist, and spent eight weeks off the pitch. And so it was, despite having only a handful of rides, still claiming his full 7lb allowance, he got his first taste of the Festival in 2010 partnering Sonamix (for his dad) into a close fourth in the Fred Winter, having led into the straight.

He recalls: "The buzz, the noise of the crowd and the atmosphere. Bit different going out to the parade ring there than going out to the parade ring at Thurles on a Thursday."

His order-book rose to "still just two or three rides" for the 2011 Festival but last year Cooper had 14 mounts for a variety of trainers, including one for David Pipe.

He came closest to success with a second on White Star Line for his guv'nor in the Centenary, finding only last year's monster-improver Hunt Ball too good in the closing yards.

This season has been his best so far. With the yard in cracking form and demand for his services increasing, Cooper currently sits fifth in the jockey's championship on 53 winners. The only peers ahead of him are either attached to Willie Mullins' yard or ride for Gigginstown. Outside of leader Davy Russell, Cooper has had more rides than any other domestic jockey.

He has also managed a Cheltenham winner – on Action Master at the October meeting – and he is sharpening his pencil for this week where he will have 13 or 14 fresh opportunities to fulfil a young boy's dream. His best is undoubtedly Our Conor, a revelation since switching his attention to obstacles.

Unbeaten in three runs from his debut at Navan in November, he has simply gone from strength to strength and finds himself at the top of the Triumph Hurdle market.

Cooper, his partner in all three wins, is still looking for the flaws. "He jumps, he stays, and he has a turn of foot," says the jockey. What's not to like? Some whispers have questioned his stamina for the demands of the New Course, but Our Conor's pilot at least is unfazed. "He's been going on at the end of all his races so I don't see that as a problem," he adds. He pinpoints Nicky Henderson's Rolling Star as his main danger.

Amongst Cooper's many other possibilities next week he singles out Lyreen Legend for particular mention. Likelier for the RSA than the Jewson he should be a lot better than he showed in the PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown in February where he finished close-up in a blanket finish.

"After his unlucky fall at Christmas in the three miler he had been stood in his box for nearly a month so he'd done very little work before the Moriarty. So given his price I expect him to run very well," says Cooper.

White Star Line, in spite of running-up last year at the Festival, is actually lower in the ratings this time around. However, still a maiden over fences, he may struggle to get into his first preference race, the Byrne Group Plate and may consequently have to take the three-mile option.

Action Master returns to the scene of his October victory for the Pertemps Final but would prefer better ground. And Benefficient, a horse that has provided him with two Grade 1 successes in the last two years at unlikely odds both times, looks set to try a similar feat in the Arkle where he takes on 'The Invincibles', Simonsig and Overturn.

Cooper is about as optimistic as he was on those other two occasions. Cooper will travel over early for the Festival and this year shares a house close to the racecourse with Robbie Power, Davy Condon and Robbie McNamara, where minds will be firmly focused on the job.

Cooper will be on-course by 7.0 every morning – starting tomorrow – to ride out and ensure the final finessing is applied to the horses' preparation. The early starts are a contrast to the late night the young Kerryman has just suffered at home. He has yawned his way through the interview thus far, and pauses to explain.

His latest and last pre-Cheltenham engagement took place the previous night in his home town and, true to these things, concluded at 4.0am. Yet he still appeared to report for duty at dawn on the Curragh. It is a tingling reminder of the swashbuckling air that accompanies youth.

Does he feel pressure this time riding the favourite for a high-profile race like the Triumph? "I just took it like any other race," he replies genuinely, stifling another yawn.

But to win it would also turn his imaginary childhood Cheltenham, saddled on the back of the sofa at home, into an adult reality; and his boyhood dream into a piece of racing history.

stable form not great - albeit not many recent runners.

^scrub that - massive run from Baily Green

Didn't expect FL to be out-jumped. Fair play to the winner.

11 Mar 13 16:03

Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 13,086 | Blogger: judorick's blog


Cue Card is going to p1ss all over the Ryan Air field, that's who Bally



Ballydoyle 11 Mar 13 16:04 Joined: 23 Feb 02 | Topic/replies: 1,116 | Blogger: Ballydoyle's blog


Cue Card won't get up that hill and will chuck it.hes a definite lay him.should be in the 2m

Thanks

Ballydoyle seething.