Cheltenham Festival
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11 Mar 13
13:11
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Date Joined:
11 Mar 08
Is he going for the Gold Cup or Ryanair?
I think he should go for the Ryanair as I think he has a good chance of winning that. If he doesn't go for it then I'll be on Riverside Theatre instead.
I think he should go for the Ryanair as I think he has a good chance of winning that. If he doesn't go for it then I'll be on Riverside Theatre instead.
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Replies: 57
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It's a bit ridiculous that they haven't announced which race yet...
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Waiting for Nesbitt to give Davy the ok for the Ryanair.
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Bet of the meeting if he runs in the Ryanair imo.
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I'm frankly amazed that so many people think this horse is a good bet
yes you can spin the form to make an argument if you like but on the bare facts he is entirely opposable. 2 wins from 11 chases and never won a chase outside Novice company, not won any race since Nov 2011 (clearly that means not won a race this season), not run for 75 days, prefers good ground... I don't see much to make him backable apart from an interpretation of what he might do and if he runs in the Ryan Air the Irish have a miserable record in the Cathcart/Ryan Air combined 1 winners since 1973 - clearly well fancied and might well win but not attractive to me each to their own though |
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The fact that he hasn't won many chases is a genuine negative but the it's the only negative in my book. Only two horses have finished in front of him at Cheltenham - Rock On Ruby and Bob's Worth. Festival form doesn't come much stronger that that.
This ground at this trip is ideal for him imo. He also had the exact same lay-off before finishing 2nd to BW last year so no worries there for me. |
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As SDC will not like the ground and has probably lost his chance of gold cup glory I think Gigginstown might leave him in the Gold Cup as FL will go on the ground.
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how do you know SDC won't like the ground? How do you know what the going will be like? He's won a Grade 1 on heavy and he's pretty versatile, it's that good would have ideal but whatever the going the best horse normally wins. Why should it inconvenience him more than others? Just twisting the facts to suit your argument
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Doesn't go on the ground?erm he's just won a Grade 1 on soft/heavy no?
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Sir Des Champs recorded a career best on sft/hvy lto.
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SDC not liking the ground is a joke right? Career best RPR last time winning a Grade 1 on Irish "soft to heavy"?
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If this is what FL Gold Cup backers are clinging onto then good luck with that one and buy a new formbook
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This ground at this trip is ideal for him imo. He also had the exact same lay-off before finishing 2nd to BW last year so no worries there for me.
did not win though did he? Another one for the 'no prep race in last 60 days' stat which shows that 81% of all Festival winners ran within that time |
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Who would beat First Lieutenant in the Ryanair?who would stay up that hill better?for me he's one of the bets of the meeting
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FL won the Neptune having not ran since December
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FL won't get home in a soft ground GC. He'd struggle to see out that trip on good ground imo.
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The current gold cup fav Bobs Worth has never even seen soft ground at the racecourse.
If there are any doubts against any of the GC runners where suitable going is concerned then perhaps he should be first on the list. |
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Cue Card is going to p1ss all over the Ryan Air field, that's who Bally
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Cue Card won't get up that hill and will chuck it.hes a definite lay him.should be in the 2m
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you need a 3 miler to win this, which cue card isnt
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There is no way he will see out this trip.only 7yo not battle-heartened enough.First Lieutenant been running against better horses and guaranteed he sees out this trip
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There is no way he will see out this trip.only 7yo not battle-heartened enough.First Lieutenant been running against better horses and guaranteed he sees out this trip
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To correct my earlier post - only one horse has finished in front of him at Cheltenham.
As a poster above asks, who beats him? Last years winner doesn't love the track and has had his problems. SE goes for the CC. Cue card won't see it out anywhere near as well as FL will. Champion Court is solid but looks the type to place rather than win. Menorah similar but less reliable. |
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RT is not a three miler, he won it, so did Albertas and he's not really a 3 miler
I've already demonstrated clearly that CC has quite a few pounds in hand on the bare form and on my Peak performance ratings he is 8lb clear going to make all and bound up the hill mark miwordz |
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"only 7yo not battle-heartened enough"
Deary me Bally. That's worse than your comment about flat breds being a negative in the triumph. |
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Albertas Run won the RSA mate
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better horses? FECK OFF
Bobs Worth? Sprinter Sacre? who has FL run against that's better than them? you're just making it up to suit your argument as usual, I'm not getting in an argument about the form but all this 'won't get up the hill' **** is just bollox |
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its how we interpret the 3 miles, AR won the RSA over 3 miles RT finished 2nd in a KG over 3 miles, CC finished a distant 4th over 3 miles, if he had finished closer id be more confident but he didnt...
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Think it fair to imagine that FL would be suited completely with the Ryanair trip and likely ground at that distance.
Think Cue Card will be ok with the trip as well,but in a fight up the hill i would prefer to be on FL. Either could win though,and i expect one of them to do just that. |
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Erm no...I think you will find I said Our Conor wouldn't get home and being by Jeremy wouldn't be for me as is the fact that he hadn't won over 1m4 on flat like most recent winners in past years....that's a bit different.Anyway,please leave that to the Triumph thread for now
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Champion Court has an interesting profile but don't understand why trainer ran him last month as its fooked him up
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the form is so easy to interpret a kid could do it
FL will need to improve significantly on his form vs bobs worth to get close to cue card unless you're just ignoring the form book? Hennessey FL got a pound and got beat 8.5 lengths Cue Card GAVE 7lb and got beat a short head |
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In a 4 runner 2m4 last year
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Here we go again, same old record. Ok Judo you're in love with Cue Card and anyone can see he's a good sort. Hate to burst your bubble but you can't "clearly demonstrate" anything as it's all about opinions and yours is not more valid than anyone else's. You seem to have the same choice in many races as me but there's no need to be throwing a strop every time someone says that SDC and Cue Card will be beaten. And for the avoidance of doubt I've been backing SDC since last September and think he's going to take all the beating.
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cue card got beat over his ideal trip by a 3 miler, is that the basis to your form judo?
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It's all opinions but I think Bobs Worth wore Cue Card down in that over a furlong shorter than Ryanair and an easier run race?
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I'd be concerned about Cue Card's jumping. He almost always makes at least one mistake and not many horses do that at the festival and win.
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problem with that is the form is not conclusive.
Bobsworth ran againct CC at a distance too short for him,FL ran against Bobsworth at 3m2,which is 7furlongs more than the race they will be running in on Wednesday. Its all about too twisted to take too literally imo |
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Alleged, i don't think you have to be a stayer to win the Ryanair. Thisthatandtother, Fondmort and Riverside Thetre are not stayers in my opinion. I think you have to look at the field and the conditions. The hill will bring stamina into play in the horse with the stamina is quick enough to stay with the horse who has less perceived stamina but may a better turn of foot.
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Bolloxed the last post up. Stamina comes into play if the horse with stamina can stay with his rivals. Some times a horse with more toe can leave the better stayer behind before he gets to use it.
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