Cheltenham Festival
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Not slagging it off but I'm a Rule The World fan at 12/1 and can't understand why PA is so short?
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the same could be said of ballycasey shocking price....
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Yep...that's ridiculous at 9/2
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Priced up on connections and the fact that it won a Grade 1 on debut for Mullins. I'm also on Rule The World and agree that he is over priced. Have Pont at 5/1 for any race also as I don't rate the home challengers much.
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Looks slow to me to be honest.
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Looks slow to me to be honest.
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Pont Alex is so short because of comments from Ruby and Mullins. On pure form he shouldn't be as short as he is. But given the laughable price of The New One who got exposed lto it's not too crazy.
Look you're mad imo if you back novices at 2/1 ffs. But this is the only horse Mullins has chucked into a grade 1 on his first start for him and he hacked up. Only daft people will knock the horse, he could be anything and with the rain coming it may be on the softer side which won't hinder him at all. You'd be right to say his price is skinny based on what he's done. But imo TNO is the worst price in the race. So RTW and Taquin Du Seuil are two very viable e/w alternatives. I'm pretty sure Pont Alex is gonna hack up though. and if yo're so inclined I wouldn't put you off having a bet, I think he's very good. Mikal D'Haguenet took it up miles out a few years back and stirmed home, I'd expect a repeat this year. |
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Haven't his times also been quite impressive given the ground he's been running on?
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I took The New One at 16-1 ew 5 mins before the Warwick race and my initial reaction was he aint gonna get round at Cheltenham the way he jumps. I am just hoping for 4/1 he gets placed. However, I took 12/1 ew Rule The World and I honestly think he can do Pont Alexandre. I've seen a few of these hyped up novice hurdlers come over from this yard which were "certs" and beat - Boston Bob last year and So Young a couple of years ago spring to mind. If you have Pont A at 7-2 + then yeah he's value there but at 15-8 he's laughable.
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Well if you remove So Young from this "cert" equation given he was a moronic fav having won a maiden hurdle, then an 8k novice hurdle at odds of 1/6. Meaning there was nothing in his form as a benchmark for his talent, yet he was a 5l 3rd in this race. He was total hype and nothing else.
Mikael D'Haguenet had depth to his form, he'd won a grade 1 and 2 grade 2's. He was sent of a well backed fav and won very well. Like with Pont Alex, he won fto in a grade 1, then won a grade 2 with a penalty. There is depth to the form and there's the times to back it up. He is a serious animal and it's rare Mullins lauds a horse as much. Said best novice he's had bar Hurricane Fly. Yes this is hype, but the form and times are there. People can say he's won on heavy etc.. yes he has but he has to run on what ground he's got. Mullins said he's worked much better since the ground dried out so I wouldn't be using that to pick holes in him. To be honest, he looks a very deserving fav and Nicholls said last night Ruby hasn't shut up about him. It's all down to price though, do you want to back him at the current price? Not me, but I got 16s and 10s and to win any race at 6s so I'm certainly not touching 2s. I wouldn't be laying him in anycase. Hard to find any faults in him so far. But these are novices, and he'll be better when he's over fences. Can't be wading into skinny prices ever tbh. But when you look at Pont Alexs price compared to MTOYs price, it's easy to see which looks better. Best horses usually win the Neptune, best horses usually lose the supreme. |
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I admit he is a danger but beating Sizing Gold by who had only won a maiden? Busty Brown the time before? Are they any good? Sizing Gold was murdered 10 lengths by Don Cossack before he got beat almost the same distance by this thing and Don Cossack aint in the same league as Rule The World for me and evidently the owners.
As for the times, he was 28 seconds slower than standard LTO and 40 seconds slower than standard the time before. Am I missing something here? Mullins is also on record as saying he done f-all until it started raining so I aint buying the good ground wonder horse stuff. Denman was another to be hyped in this by Walsh and beat and when Mikael D'Haguenet won this he went on to become a donkey |
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What's he beat? Beat Sizing Gold hands up last time out. Sizing Gold has very solid form and is a very decent yardstick. What's Rule the World beat? Won really well last time but was beaten by Our Vinnie in November who in turn was beaten out the gate by PA at Leopardstown. Mightn't like the odds but hard to argue with them
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Sizing Gold - what's he beat?
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I find it hard to fault his form in any case, he smashed a horse that beat ROW by 24 lengths, could have been further. Sizing gold is a fair yardstick. 4th horse has consistently run better than he was rated in the Pont race. good enough for me
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The fact that the Couch has had his max on would make me want to press lay! But seriously, don't want to slag the horse off, he could win and is easily the main danger to my two but I think at 15-8 people are just getting carried away cos Walsh natters n about him. Walsh nattered on about Kauto 24/7 then the Tank kicked his arse
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Ballydoyle, what has anything beat?
Rule The World beat Minsk TNO beat Tesco burger horses Taquin Du Seuil beat no horse even turning up at the festival Nobody has beaten anything much. Pont Alex has utterly smashed what he's faced. We can pick holes in all their form and pick holes in their prices. But I sure as hell ain't gonna knock Pont Alex for obliterating Grade 1 and Grade 2 fields. Only thing you can knock is his skinny price, everything else is daft as the horse literally couldn't possibly have done any better on his 2 runs. What would people want from him? 30l wins?? |
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Walsh natterd on about Kauto because he was riding the best horse since Arkle ffs. Can hardly use that analogy to knock Pont Alex surely
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@CV I might have been thinking the same about that one, but Ballydoyle I understand your point. They are all unexposed, there should be a price floor on the Fav and agree that 15/8 is now looking short enough. We will see on the day.
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Not for me Fallen angel, TNO was exposed lto, RTW was beaten this season too, Taquin Du Seuil is less exposed. Puffin Billy is unexposed given he was injured lto.
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TNO exposed??? beat a grade 2 course winner, and was only racing to get more experience, and really should have won the race
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I'd say RTW is still unexposed at the trip, like many novices.
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At the time CV...it was Kauto this and Kauto that...then the Tank turned up and just smashed him up...but I an't going into all of this again cos although I am completely a Denman man (who got beat in this lol)...Kauto Star was a legend.
The New One went far too soon LTO and with a patient jock would have won by 5 so there's no bubble burst there and At Fishers Cross would give Pont A a race....would murder the likes of Sizing Gold and Busty Brown for sure. The New One has more speed than Pont Alexandre imo and hopefully it's good ground and Sam can bide his time and pounce. If it's soft then The New One ain't getting home. Rule The World hosed up LTO admittedly in a dodgy race and Davy Russell rates him. There's no way he should be 5 times the price of this favourite. Puffin Billy has no chance with his prep. If you are on Pont A at good prices then he is a good bet. But looking at it now he is a bookmaker's dream. |
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Sorry - Puffin won't get home if it's soft, not the New One
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To be fair to So Young, he made a right hash of the last,and but for that could have won.
Agree that PA is too short right now,but i think hes a deserved fav,and will run a big race. These novices are often talked up,and often come to the festival having not faced each other, and not beaten much. We have all the form and visual impression at hand though,and whether you choose to take much notice of connections is entirely down to us as individuals. I tend not to. |
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yeah I'm not sure TNO is that exposed either. Coneygree was very highly thought of before he got hammered in that race. Might just be that that the Rebecca Curtis horse is a real improver. The ground is another factor which might see one of the others improve dramatically for (although trying to guess at that is a lottery). That saying I think the market has got this about right in order terms and I have followed each of the contenders in some detail.
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he hasn't beaten much - but let us assume he had some great form....then the difference between MDHaganeut (backed into 5/2 I believe on the day) and Pont Alex is the price, the Mullins hype machine now makes his runners 2pts shorter at least every time.
Mullins record 15/126 last 5 years at Cheltenham -28.60 level stakes I would wait before backing this beast - the bookies will be after him on the day. |
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Buddelia - that was Oscars Well..trust me!
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Boston Bob hyped up...looked slow then put in his place by a Lucinda Russell nag
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Both made a hash mate,i can assure you.
As well!! |
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Fallen - I'm all over At Fishers and Coneygree (16/1? love it) for the potato race and agree..that was a good race LTO.
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Yeah I like that piece of form alot and the turn of pace off the bend is something quite special. The one serious issue I have with TNO is at a couple of flights he tends to leave his hind legs quite low which can halt his momentum, my hope is they will have worked on it and haven't seen any negative impact from this virus thing.
I have committed to both the TNO and Pont but at much bigger prices but I can see arguments for all the first four in the betting. My greater issue would be the price differential between Taq and ROW which seems to be entirely price wise related. |
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Pricewise? - the luckiest man in racing for me....his ante post book is worse than Mark Grant's riding style
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As fr the new one, it's all excuses for his defeat last time. It's the ONLY real test he's faced and he lost at odds on to a 3 miler who'd won just handicaps that season. If he really was something special he'd have won that race. So for me, I am not buying excuses, he was exposed that day plain and simple. Yes he may run a better race etc.. but I know whereabouts the end of his class is.
Pont Alex, we haven't a clue how good he is. He will be over bet, I will be laying every cent of my stake back at a crazy short sp of something like 5/4. |
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but there are excuses as we all know, was simonsig exposed when beaten by fingal, was al ferof exposed behind backspin, MTOY behind chatterbox the list could go on and on and on....
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Another great discussion thread created so Ballydoyle can tell us all why the horses he HASN'T backed at long odds will not win. But for all you PA backers don't despair as Ballydoyle does admit "he is a danger". Phew, i know i'll sleep easier tonight.
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"He is a serious animal and it's rare Mullins lauds a horse as much. Said best novice he's had bar Hurricane Fly."
Yeah just another hype horse. Sure he says that about them all.  |
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alleged22 07 Mar 13 13:31 Joined: 18 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 671 | Blogger: alleged22's blog
but there are excuses as we all know, was simonsig exposed when beaten by fingal, was al ferof exposed behind backspin, MTOY behind chatterbox the list could go on and on and on.... Maelduin the stalker...appears on all threads... Boston Bob was "unbelievable" last year...beat no? |
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lol maelduin, you quote some hype to disprove the hype
 Sweet wake, harcon, youllnever walkalone, boston bob, dunguib.... heard it ALL before. this does not detract from his chance, just that the value will not be there. |
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Good point Ming - you know me and you always agree
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heck I thought me and bally were in agreement there - I take back whatever i said if that is so
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