Pont Alexandre...what's he beat?

the same could be said of ballycasey shocking price....

Yep...that's ridiculous at 9/2

Priced up on connections and the fact that it won a Grade 1 on debut for Mullins. I'm also on Rule The World and agree that he is over priced. Have Pont at 5/1 for any race also as I don't rate the home challengers much.

Looks slow to me to be honest.

Looks slow to me to be honest.

Pont Alex is so short because of comments from Ruby and Mullins. On pure form he shouldn't be as short as he is. But given the laughable price of The New One who got exposed lto it's not too crazy.

Look you're mad imo if you back novices at 2/1 ffs. But this is the only horse Mullins has chucked into a grade 1 on his first start for him and he hacked up. Only daft people will knock the horse, he could be anything and with the rain coming it may be on the softer side which won't hinder him at all.

You'd be right to say his price is skinny based on what he's done. But imo TNO is the worst price in the race. So RTW and Taquin Du Seuil are two very viable e/w alternatives.

I'm pretty sure Pont Alex is gonna hack up though. and if yo're so inclined I wouldn't put you off having a bet, I think he's very good. Mikal D'Haguenet took it up miles out a few years back and stirmed home, I'd expect a repeat this year.

Haven't his times also been quite impressive given the ground he's been running on?

I took The New One at 16-1 ew 5 mins before the Warwick race and my initial reaction was he aint gonna get round at Cheltenham the way he jumps. I am just hoping for 4/1 he gets placed. However, I took 12/1 ew Rule The World and I honestly think he can do Pont Alexandre. I've seen a few of these hyped up novice hurdlers come over from this yard which were "certs" and beat - Boston Bob last year and So Young a couple of years ago spring to mind. If you have Pont A at 7-2 + then yeah he's value there but at 15-8 he's laughable.

Well if you remove So Young from this "cert" equation given he was a moronic fav having won a maiden hurdle, then an 8k novice hurdle at odds of 1/6. Meaning there was nothing in his form as a benchmark for his talent, yet he was a 5l 3rd in this race. He was total hype and nothing else.

Mikael D'Haguenet had depth to his form, he'd won a grade 1 and 2 grade 2's. He was sent of a well backed fav and won very well. Like with Pont Alex, he won fto in a grade 1, then won a grade 2 with a penalty. There is depth to the form and there's the times to back it up. He is a serious animal and it's rare Mullins lauds a horse as much. Said best novice he's had bar Hurricane Fly.

Yes this is hype, but the form and times are there. People can say he's won on heavy etc.. yes he has but he has to run on what ground he's got. Mullins said he's worked much better since the ground dried out so I wouldn't be using that to pick holes in him.

To be honest, he looks a very deserving fav and Nicholls said last night Ruby hasn't shut up about him. It's all down to price though, do you want to back him at the current price? Not me, but I got 16s and 10s and to win any race at 6s so I'm certainly not touching 2s.

I wouldn't be laying him in anycase. Hard to find any faults in him so far. But these are novices, and he'll be better when he's over fences. Can't be wading into skinny prices ever tbh. But when you look at Pont Alexs price compared to MTOYs price, it's easy to see which looks better. Best horses usually win the Neptune, best horses usually lose the supreme.

I admit he is a danger but beating Sizing Gold by who had only won a maiden? Busty Brown the time before? Are they any good? Sizing Gold was murdered 10 lengths by Don Cossack before he got beat almost the same distance by this thing and Don Cossack aint in the same league as Rule The World for me and evidently the owners.

As for the times, he was 28 seconds slower than standard LTO and 40 seconds slower than standard the time before. Am I missing something here?

Mullins is also on record as saying he done f-all until it started raining so I aint buying the good ground wonder horse stuff.

Denman was another to be hyped in this by Walsh and beat and when Mikael D'Haguenet won this he went on to become a donkey

What's he beat? Beat Sizing Gold hands up last time out. Sizing Gold has very solid form and is a very decent yardstick. What's Rule the World beat? Won really well last time but was beaten by Our Vinnie in November who in turn was beaten out the gate by PA at Leopardstown. Mightn't like the odds but hard to argue with them

Sizing Gold - what's he beat?

I find it hard to fault his form in any case, he smashed a horse that beat ROW by 24 lengths, could have been further. Sizing gold is a fair yardstick. 4th horse has consistently run better than he was rated in the Pont race. good enough for me

The fact that the Couch has had his max on would make me want to press lay! But seriously, don't want to slag the horse off, he could win and is easily the main danger to my two but I think at 15-8 people are just getting carried away cos Walsh natters n about him. Walsh nattered on about Kauto 24/7 then the Tank kicked his arse

Ballydoyle, what has anything beat?

Rule The World beat Minsk
TNO beat Tesco burger horses
Taquin Du Seuil beat no horse even turning up at the festival

Nobody has beaten anything much. Pont Alex has utterly smashed what he's faced.

We can pick holes in all their form and pick holes in their prices. But I sure as hell ain't gonna knock Pont Alex for obliterating Grade 1 and Grade 2 fields. Only thing you can knock is his skinny price, everything else is daft as the horse literally couldn't possibly have done any better on his 2 runs.

What would people want from him? 30l wins??

Walsh natterd on about Kauto because he was riding the best horse since Arkle ffs. Can hardly use that analogy to knock Pont Alex surely

@CV I might have been thinking the same about that one, but Ballydoyle I understand your point. They are all unexposed, there should be a price floor on the Fav and agree that 15/8 is now looking short enough. We will see on the day.

Not for me Fallen angel, TNO was exposed lto, RTW was beaten this season too, Taquin Du Seuil is less exposed. Puffin Billy is unexposed given he was injured lto.

TNO exposed??? beat a grade 2 course winner, and was only racing to get more experience, and really should have won the race

I'd say RTW is still unexposed at the trip, like many novices.

At the time CV...it was Kauto this and Kauto that...then the Tank turned up and just smashed him up...but I an't going into all of this again cos although I am completely a Denman man (who got beat in this lol)...Kauto Star was a legend.

The New One went far too soon LTO and with a patient jock would have won by 5 so there's no bubble burst there and At Fishers Cross would give Pont A a race....would murder the likes of Sizing Gold and Busty Brown for sure.  The New One has more speed than Pont Alexandre imo and hopefully it's good ground and Sam can bide his time and pounce. If it's soft then The New One ain't getting home. Rule The World hosed up LTO admittedly in a dodgy race and Davy Russell rates him. There's no way he should be 5 times the price of this favourite. Puffin Billy has no chance with his prep.

If you are on Pont A at good prices then he is a good bet. But looking at it now he is a bookmaker's dream.

Sorry - Puffin won't get home if it's soft, not the New One

To be fair to So Young, he made a right hash of the last,and but for that could have won.

Agree that PA is too short right now,but i think hes a deserved fav,and will run a big race.

These novices are often talked up,and often come to the festival having not faced each other, and not beaten much.
We have all the form and visual impression at hand though,and whether you choose to take much notice of connections is entirely down to us as individuals.
I tend not to.

yeah I'm not sure TNO is that exposed either. Coneygree was very highly thought of before he got hammered in that race. Might just be that that the Rebecca Curtis horse is a real improver. The ground is another factor which might see one of the others improve dramatically for (although trying to guess at that is a lottery). That saying I think the market has got this about right in order terms and I have followed each of the contenders in some detail.

he hasn't beaten much - but let us assume he had some great form....then the difference between MDHaganeut (backed into 5/2 I believe on the day) and Pont Alex is the price, the Mullins hype machine now makes his runners 2pts shorter at least every time.

Mullins record
15/126 last 5 years at Cheltenham
-28.60 level stakes

I would wait before backing this beast - the bookies will be after him on the day.

Buddelia - that was Oscars Well..trust me!

Boston Bob hyped up...looked slow then put in his place by a Lucinda Russell nag

Both made a hash mate,i can assure you.
As well!!

Fallen - I'm all over At Fishers and Coneygree (16/1? love it) for the potato race and agree..that was a good race LTO.

Yeah I like that piece of form alot and the turn of pace off the bend is something quite special. The one serious issue I have with TNO is at a couple of flights he tends to leave his hind legs quite low which can halt his momentum, my hope is they will have worked on it and haven't seen any negative impact from this virus thing. 

I have committed to both the TNO and Pont but at much bigger prices but I can see arguments for all the first four in the betting. My greater issue would be the price differential between Taq and ROW which seems to be entirely price wise related.

Pricewise? - the luckiest man in racing for me....his ante post book is worse than Mark Grant's riding style

As fr the new one, it's all excuses for his defeat last time. It's the ONLY real test he's faced and he lost at odds on to a 3 miler who'd won just handicaps that season. If he really was something special he'd have won that race. So for me, I am not buying excuses, he was exposed that day plain and simple. Yes he may run a better race etc.. but I know whereabouts the end of his class is.

Pont Alex, we haven't a clue how good he is. He will be over bet, I will be laying every cent of my stake back at a crazy short sp of something like 5/4.

but there are excuses as we all know, was simonsig exposed when beaten by fingal, was al ferof exposed behind backspin, MTOY behind chatterbox the list could go on and on and on....

Another great discussion thread created so Ballydoyle can tell us all why the horses he HASN'T backed at long odds will not win. But for all you PA backers don't despair as Ballydoyle does admit "he is a danger". Phew, i know i'll sleep easier tonight.

"He is a serious animal and it's rare Mullins lauds a horse as much. Said best novice he's had bar Hurricane Fly."

Yeah just another hype horse. Sure he says that about them all.

alleged22 07 Mar 13 13:31 Joined: 18 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 671 | Blogger: alleged22's blog
but there are excuses as we all know, was simonsig exposed when beaten by fingal, was al ferof exposed behind backspin, MTOY behind chatterbox the list could go on and on and on....



Maelduin the stalker...appears on all threads...

Boston Bob was "unbelievable" last year...beat no?

lol maelduin, you quote some hype to disprove the hype

Sweet wake, harcon, youllnever walkalone, boston bob, dunguib.... heard it ALL before.

this does not detract from his chance, just that the value will not be there.

Good point Ming - you know me and you always agree

heck I thought me and bally were in agreement there - I take back whatever i said if that is so

No Ming nooo....

"Sweet wake, harcon, youllnever walkalone, boston bob, dunguib.... heard it ALL before."

I can't recall WM ever saying any of the above were "the best novice i've had bar Hurricane Fly" but of course the internet has a huge library of WM quotes on his horses so i'm sure you'll find where he did in fact say it. I'm looking forward to being put in my place. Tick Tock Tick Tock Tick Tock.

Ballydoyle is on these forums 24/7 spouting nonsense and he thinks i'm a stalker. It's like this muppet is on "no thread left behind" crusade.

lol again - context - so its the best novice he has had in 3 years..... see what I did there.

Maelduin...stalker man...just can't help getting involved. Away n beg Mouse to run yer horse in the Gold Cup son

Context me hole. WM has had 3 hype horses for the Neptune since the Fly was a novice and countless others that ran elsewhere. I'll take your cop out as a NO.

Just having some banter Ballydoyle. All in jest. Have to go to work now at McDonalds. Seriously though with the weather forecast looks like FL is Ryanair bound. gltu.

After his latest victory, Mullins said of Pont Alexandre: “He looks to be one of the best novice hurdlers we've had, apart maybe from Hurricane Fly.

from that I read it as 'he is one of his better novices we have had but not as good as HF'.

You read it pal as 'he is the best novice bar HF'

hey ho.

One of the best

Obviously all in jest Maelduin man...it's all banter wiv me as ye know...I'm off to model balaclavas

stop agreeing with me - I am on tilt!  

Ming's bang on here as usual...always talks sense does our Ming

Pont Alexandre starting to look very underpriced whatever way people look at it. This looks a very good race to me this year and yet he will probably end up around 11/8 fav which in a race like this with so many horses open to improvement is pretty crazy even if he wins easily he looks underpriced. People bang on about Mikael Dag winning this race but he was 5/2 and a bigger price a few days leading up to the race. For a horse with no course form i would want at least 2/1 in this type of race but everyone bets differently.

Well the hype hurlde horses for mullins have tbf run well. Think in recent years we've had Hurricane Fly 1st& 3rd, Mikael D'Haguenet 1st, Boston Bob 2nd, So Young 3rd

You'd be in profit backing them anyway

I'll make a start on the list

call the police 7/2f coral cup 2011 (11th)

Stop being daft, who the hell hyped up Call the Police?? Bloody handicap ffs, how can you hype a handicapper.

Think Sir Des Champs and Final Approach won handicap hurdles at that meeting anyway

If you were a bit confused, there's no such thing as a hyped handicapper, it;s in the name. Handicapper.

Grade 1 horses we're talking about.

fly was 7/2 in a grade one...... and THEN we have a zillion runner coral cup and that was 7/2 - what do you want CV?

Mullins is a good trainer...no doubt about it...but the validity of who Pont A has beat...not sure he's that quick to be honest. Should go for the potato race and C Fever for Neptune

CV the man who always seems to have 50/1 or whatever on many horses from last year..the day they were foaled...the day they started galloping.....jesus son and you still work??

lol - change the rules on me now - i DON'T THINK FLY WAS HYPED FOR HIS First Ch run tbh. he was the lay of the week because of his sire.

He was hyped for the Supreme before he went lame the previous year.

Talk smack if you want Bally, what prices I back horses at should be no issue tbh. I'm on a private racing forum where all my bets are posted and there are at least 10 of them who post here to call bullsh1t if I ever made anything up.

Back on topic Ming I don't care about handicap hurdles, whoever bets a horse at 7/2 in one like that is crazy tbh.

I have said, his hyped grade 1 horses. IS this a grade 1 race we're talking about? Yes.

Fiveforthree is another I forgot about, went off 7/1 and won the Neptune too. He's a stunning record with his fancied grade 1 hurdlers tbf.

If you were a bit confused, there's no such thing as a hyped handicapper, it;s in the name. Handicapper

you must be the one who is confused if you haven't heard of a hyped cheltenham handicapper.... that would be a list to get stuck into .... starting with Psycho, Call the Police, Junior (won), Vendor, Salut Flo (won)..... I am not going there.

that said your point now made clear is reasonable.

Alright CV calm down man......just see on most threads you've got 20/1 here 50/1 there on things which are 2/1 and 9/4 etc...you should start a tipping line man..

Ok stop avoiding the question and my statement.

Mullins hyped Grade 1 hurdlers have an excellent record in recent years do they not? Can't think of one being unplaced tbh bar Cousin Vinny.

What have I got 20/1 and 50/1 on? stop making stuff up Bally. I've very few bets posted on here. I had Monksland @ 33/1 which was a sickener tbh.

grade 1 novice hurdlers?

melodic rendevous was hyped antepost then trained badly, davy jocked off and drifted... finished 18/1 unp.

What's the private racing forum CV?

lol that's the wrong horse - it was called summat like dat lol

20/1 Bobs Worth Hennessey/Gold Cup double?

Hang on what one earth are you talking about?

I'm talking about Mullins hyped grade 1 hurdlers. So there are 5 races. Horses who go off single figures at a minimum in those race. List the ones who flopped, Cousin Vinny aside (who came 5th)

can't be bothered to go through them to be honest CV

HF was not hyped, I would argue that Mikael wasn't either - just well backed on the day.

HF was hyped antepost for the Supreme before he went lame the year before he won.

So you have Fly (invicible) 3rd at 4/6
Bob (THIS WILL WIN!) (5/4?) 2nd

ffs sake at those odds they should be placed..... the yearly Irish hype machines are bad for your wealth, period.

Ok I'm just gonna sit here laughing for the next 5 mins.

So you're telling me the well backed Fav for the Champion Hurdle and the well backed fav for the Neptune. Were not hyped. ?


Forget it man, betfair forum at its finest right there.


Absolute classic post, which I'm gonna copy and paste elsewhere. Cheers ming

what about saddlers wings a few years back, decent flat horse who won a couple of hurdles and went off 2nd fav for the 2.5 race came 6th.

Very very harsh to say The New One was exposed, simply beaten by a good horse and a better stayer in heavy ground. Exposed? no, not yet

alexander banquet.

There's loads of them to be fair...but Mullins does have a good record. This thing though, to me, looks slow and aint beaten much to be 7/4 but we will see...

A large part of his short price and certainly what start the ball rolling is due in no small part to the fact that at the time he beat don cossack, that horse was still supposed to be the next big thing, subsequently we've found out that DC is nothing special, so that form itself now doesn't look anything like as good.

CV - blah blah blah

ming - facts

CV - YOU misunderstood

ming - facts

CV - lol at ming

mikael was almost a joint fave of three - with karabak and diamond harry, certainly the day before.

ffs - oops, sorry I am using facts again.... I concede to you whole heartedly.

Sadlers Wings is a good shout

Alexander Banquet is a bit far back in 99 he's a tad better trainer now.

Neither went off fav though. Sadlers had some hype though

Any others? Sure he must've had a fancied one for Supreme other than Cousin Vinny?

Think he might be tooooooooooooo sloooooooooow.

So at sp

Fly    2.75
Fly    -1
Bob    -1
So Young    -1
Cousin Vinny    -1
Mikael    2.5
Fiveforthree    7
Sadlers Wings    -1
Alexander banquet    -1


Total +6.25 if you backed all his hyped hurdle horses blind at sp.

triumph hurdle...mister hight

But the record of Mullins hot pots starting under 2/1 or under is pretty poor isn't it? I'm not knocking Pont Alexandre as he looks a horse of some potential but the odds look pretty tight to me but i was on at your prices i would be a happy bunny. It's funny how the horse doesn't know his odds but how often horses which are underpriced get turned over (in every format of racing)

We can't find specific criteria where one loses money backing his blind, but the point was he has a good record with fancied horses especially in recent years.

So to oppose one of his because it has hype is fairly fruitless argument. Especially when it comes to the Neptune. He has a superb record in this in recent years.

Boston Bob was over bet last year for sure, 5/2 was a fair price imo for him, how he went off 6/5 is beyond me. Mental price for a novice hurdler.

Pont Alex is too short now, no doubt. But the point of this was to point out that hype is often warranted for some of his horses.

*we can find

Cheltenham Festival | Willie Mullins | 5, 6 or 7yo | Hurdles | 2m5f or less

10/37 | 27% S/R | +£95.70 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/37 | 32% S/R

Impressive numbers imo regardless of hype.(Figures taken from 2007 to 2012 Festival runners)

Impressive that....hype or not.

If my memory serves me right Mikael DHag was 9/2 the morning of the race. If anyone believes WM has a bad record in festival novice hurdles have a look at all the other trainers records. Nicky Henderson for example has not won the Supreme for over twenty years and Simonsig was his first ever winner of the 2m 5f race. Horses dont lose because they are bad value/prices but punters lose money backing at bad value prices. PA is currently bad value and he will probably go off shorter on the day but he is the most likely winner imo and I would reckon 3/1 is a decent price. I certainly would not knock the form of his Leopardstown run.

interesting arklearkle that you get back to the orginal post and what had Pont had beat or not. Had to do alot of reading before getting back to the topic at hand

The RCA Hurdle/Neptune is a race where the cream nearly always rises to the top and you very rarely get a shock result. Some hugely classy favourites have won this in the past:

Istabraq 6/5f
French Holly 2/1f
Barton 2/1f
Monsignor 5/4f
Mikael d'Haguenet 5/2f
Simonsig 2/1f

16 of the last 20 runnings have gone to horses with single-figure odds with only four 10/1+, and two of those were only 12/1.

It is not normally a very competitive race despite the big fields, mainly due to the very top horses being so good. I'm not playing at 2/1 or 7/4 this time (though got stuck into all bar Istabraq of those I mention above) as two small-field races on heavy is not sufficient to tempt me at that price when he is suddenly going to be running in a 20 runner race on good to soft. However, the way he is being talked about by Mullins and Walsh, the fact he has not put a foot wrong so far and the record of the class acts in this race, I would not want to be taking him on heavily.

RSA Hurdle, not RCA Hurdle!