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Cheltenham Festival
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These 93 comments are related to the topic:
Pont Alexandre...what's he beat?
Pont Alexandre...what's he beat?
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Replies: 93
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Sadlers Wings is a good shout
Alexander Banquet is a bit far back in 99 he's a tad better trainer now. Neither went off fav though. Sadlers had some hype though |
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Any others? Sure he must've had a fancied one for Supreme other than Cousin Vinny?
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Think he might be tooooooooooooo sloooooooooow.
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So at sp
Fly 2.75 Fly -1 Bob -1 So Young -1 Cousin Vinny -1 Mikael 2.5 Fiveforthree 7 Sadlers Wings -1 Alexander banquet -1 Total +6.25 if you backed all his hyped hurdle horses blind at sp. |
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triumph hurdle...mister hight
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But the record of Mullins hot pots starting under 2/1 or under is pretty poor isn't it? I'm not knocking Pont Alexandre as he looks a horse of some potential but the odds look pretty tight to me but i was on at your prices i would be a happy bunny. It's funny how the horse doesn't know his odds but how often horses which are underpriced get turned over (in every format of racing)
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We can't find specific criteria where one loses money backing his blind, but the point was he has a good record with fancied horses especially in recent years.
So to oppose one of his because it has hype is fairly fruitless argument. Especially when it comes to the Neptune. He has a superb record in this in recent years. Boston Bob was over bet last year for sure, 5/2 was a fair price imo for him, how he went off 6/5 is beyond me. Mental price for a novice hurdler. Pont Alex is too short now, no doubt. But the point of this was to point out that hype is often warranted for some of his horses. |
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*we can find
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Cheltenham Festival | Willie Mullins | 5, 6 or 7yo | Hurdles | 2m5f or less
10/37 | 27% S/R | +£95.70 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/37 | 32% S/R Impressive numbers imo regardless of hype.(Figures taken from 2007 to 2012 Festival runners) |
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Impressive that....hype or not.
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If my memory serves me right Mikael DHag was 9/2 the morning of the race. If anyone believes WM has a bad record in festival novice hurdles have a look at all the other trainers records. Nicky Henderson for example has not won the Supreme for over twenty years and Simonsig was his first ever winner of the 2m 5f race. Horses dont lose because they are bad value/prices but punters lose money backing at bad value prices. PA is currently bad value and he will probably go off shorter on the day but he is the most likely winner imo and I would reckon 3/1 is a decent price. I certainly would not knock the form of his Leopardstown run.
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interesting arklearkle that you get back to the orginal post and what had Pont had beat or not. Had to do alot of reading before getting back to the topic at hand
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The RCA Hurdle/Neptune is a race where the cream nearly always rises to the top and you very rarely get a shock result. Some hugely classy favourites have won this in the past:
Istabraq 6/5f French Holly 2/1f Barton 2/1f Monsignor 5/4f Mikael d'Haguenet 5/2f Simonsig 2/1f 16 of the last 20 runnings have gone to horses with single-figure odds with only four 10/1+, and two of those were only 12/1. It is not normally a very competitive race despite the big fields, mainly due to the very top horses being so good. I'm not playing at 2/1 or 7/4 this time (though got stuck into all bar Istabraq of those I mention above) as two small-field races on heavy is not sufficient to tempt me at that price when he is suddenly going to be running in a 20 runner race on good to soft. However, the way he is being talked about by Mullins and Walsh, the fact he has not put a foot wrong so far and the record of the class acts in this race, I would not want to be taking him on heavily. |
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RSA Hurdle, not RCA Hurdle!
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