Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
What is hendersons record at the cheltenham festival with horses that have not had a prep e.g. not run for 60+ days before the festival
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 58
|
By:
good question mate, got the answer to hand by any chance? hope it was not rhetorical
I'm sure NJH knows because he is a statto himself, even wrote the preface to paul jones this year |
|
By:
76 runners = 2 winners mate
|
|
By:
ok then the henderson/geraghty combination not in handicap races and must be in the 1st 3 in the betting provides us with?
|
|
By:
Presume you're taking Hendo on alleged.....good luck!
|
|
By:
don't look too good for BW does it?
no idea on that combo thing |
|
By:
76 runners = 2 winners mate
any guesses which horses? |
|
By:
ok then the henderson/geraghty combination not in handicap races and must be in the 1st 3 in the betting provides us with?
Selections 38 Wins 9 Strike rate 23.7% Profit 55.6% |
|
By:
I don't get it?
explain it clearly Henderson/Geraghty, non handicap Festival race, first 3 in betting = ?? Henderson Festival runner no prep in 60 days = ?? |
|
By:
23% so 3/1 is about right then, fair enough
|
|
By:
What is hendersons record at the cheltenham festival with horses that have not had a prep e.g. not run for 60+ days before the festival
Selections 76 Winners 2 Strike rate 2.63% Profit -76.97% |
|
By:
as folk know im not a stats man but these stats made me think, i think these would be of interest to you judo
 |
|
By:
stormy fairweather would be one
i read that a horse that has not run in this calendar year has never won a gc ? |
|
By:
I know people say I'm a stats man but that is not exactly true
I am a profile, preparation and performance man I'm not so many percentages and numbers if you read my thread. It's more about how and where they've been campaigned, the negatives they have against them and their effect on the probability that they win and all that combined with speed ratings and the associated performance |
|
By:
try long run
|
|
By:
huh?
|
|
By:
long run was 62 days what is the other?
|
|
By:
yep
 |
|
By:
stop being cryptic, brain fog, working too many hours... what about Long Run?
|
|
By:
Simonsig?
|
|
By:
stormy fairweather
 |
|
By:
long run is the one winner the other is juveigner. do you want the paul nicholls stats judo? but the most intersting one imo is p hobbs
|
|
By:
stick up what you've got, all ears
|
|
By:
Looking at Paul Nicholls overall record in the last 10 years at the Festival –
Runners 297 Winners 29 Strike rate 9.76% Profit on turnover based on level stakes (36.53%) Nicholls festival runners WITH Walsh on board Runners 115 Winners 21 Strike rate 18.3% Profit (5.0%) Nicholls festival runners WITHOUT Walsh on board Runners 182 Winners 8 Strike rate 4.4% Profit (56.46%) now we filter horses ridden by walsh in the 1st 3 in the betting Selections - 71 wins - 20 strike rate - 28.2% profit +24.3% now we filter horses that have run in the last 49 days Selections 34 Wins 13 Strike rate 38.24% Profit +100.46% |
|
By:
that last one is very interesting
|
|
By:
phillip hobbs
Let's start with his overall record over last ten festivals - Selections 167 Winners 11 Strike rate 6.59% Profit (26.65%) How about getting rid of very nearly HALF of all Hobbs runners without losing a SINGLE WINNER. How would you have done that -simple. You'd have just avoided any Hobbs runner with anybody other than our man Johnson on board Without Johnson - 81 tried and all 81 failed! ALL 81!!!What a stat that is. That is the kind of fuel our red pen needs. Rocket fuel from a stats perspective. 81 straight losers And not many near misses either (only 2 runners up and 5 third placed horses.) ok horses ridden by johnson Selections 86 Winners 11 Strike rate 12.8% Profit +44.46% ok next filter So, Hobbs runners with Johnson aboard having had a run within the last 49 days gave the following return - Selections 55 Winners 10 Strike rate 18.2% Profit +110.9% |
|
By:
david pipe next anyone?????
|
|
By:
great stuff
|
|
By:
sorry one more major filter for hobbs before we move to big dave pipe
So far we've said back all his horses ridden by Johnon which have run in last 50 days. The final thing we're going to look at is his record in handicaps Vs non-handicaps. Looking at our remaining qualifiers and winners (55 & 10) only TWO of the winners came in handicaps from a total of 23 runners, resulting in a loss of >10%. Conversely, His non-handicap runners (with Johnson and ran in last 50 days) racked up 8 wins from 32 runners for a very healthy strike rate of 25% and a whopping profit of 63.5 pts to a 1 pt level stake - equating to 198% profit on turnover. That is a fantastic return. Absolutely top-notch. Selections 32 Winners 8 Strike rate 25% Profit +198.5% |
|
By:
awesome work, love it, thread in favourites
|
|
By:
Let's start with David Pipe.
He has pretty much the same type of profile as his father. Very low strike rate overall and a lot of darts thrown at the board. They've had more runners than either Nicholls or Henderson but far fewer winners. It's fair to say that Pipe jnr hasn't had the same firepower as those other yards, and that is reflected in one of the key things you need to look at with the yard. SEVEN of David Pipe's eight winners have come in handicaps. He's only had one win (Our Vic) from 59 tries in non-handicaps. 13 of that 59 have started in a prominent (first three of jt third) market position so he has had fancied runners, but not a lot to show for it. Well Chief (twice), Grand Crus (twice), Our Vic, Over The Creek, Osana (twice) and Tamarinbleu are just some of the high profile horses that haven't quite managed to get home in front, despite being well fancied. On the other hand, he has had winners for five of the last six years in at least one handicap at the festival. He seems to invariably have horses laid out for handicaps at the meeting. So, step 1 with David Pipe - IGNORE his runners in non-handicaps and focus only on his handicap runners. Tune in tomorrow evening to find out some easy rules which will help you to separate the Pipe handicap wheat from the chaff - I'll illustrate a simple system that would have returned almost 100% profit on turnover onm Pipe's handicap runners by applying only two simple rules. The overall record is - Selections 103 Winners 7 Strike Rate 6.8% Profit -22% The starting point is to take out the 'no-hopers' that start at 33/1 or more. I accept that one day one of these may come in but Pipe is not in the habit of letting his fancied runners in handicaps at the festival go unbacked and not a single one of the 34 who've started at that price or greater has made the first three in the frame (4 have been fourth including the doughty Battle Group - twice!). Taking that 34 out improves things dramatically and we are now in profitable territory - Selections 69 Winners 7 Strike rate 10.% Profit +16.4% The last piece of the Pipe jigsaw... Placing handicappers is an art. And timing is part of that art. David Pipe seems to have an established pattern relating to the timing of the last runs of his successful festival handicappers. Of the 7 winners only one, Gaspara, has run within the last five weeks leading up to its race at the festival. That is from 32 runners (starting |
|
By:
the thing is Hobbs has had some brilliant novices/juveniles in the last decade, he has nothing lately.
all in hindsight |
|
By:
That is from 32 runners (starting
|
|
By:
That is from 32 runners (starting
|
|
By:
That is from 32 runners (starting
|
|
By:
These have been lifted from The Racing Forum
|
|
By:
bloody cut and paste
|
|
By:
jackie moon is right but they are interesting stats
That is from 32 runners (starting |
|
By:
come on, we need part 2
it maybe to long |
|
By:
The David Pipe system is...
Back in handicaps only Only those starting |