ONE FOR THE STAT MEN

good question mate, got the answer to hand by any chance? hope it was not rhetorical

I'm sure NJH knows because he is a statto himself, even wrote the preface to paul jones this year

76 runners = 2 winners mate

ok then the henderson/geraghty combination not in handicap races and must be in the 1st 3 in the betting provides us with?

Presume you're taking Hendo on alleged.....good luck!

don't look too good for BW does it?

no idea on that combo thing

76 runners = 2 winners mate

any guesses which horses?

ok then the henderson/geraghty combination not in handicap races and must be in the 1st 3 in the betting provides us with?

Selections 38
Wins 9
Strike rate 23.7%
Profit 55.6%

I don't get it?

explain it clearly

Henderson/Geraghty, non handicap Festival race, first 3 in betting =  ??

Henderson Festival runner no prep in 60 days = ??

23% so 3/1 is about right then, fair enough

What is hendersons record at the cheltenham festival with horses that have not had a prep e.g. not run for 60+ days before the festival


Selections 76
Winners 2
Strike rate 2.63%
Profit -76.97%

as folk know im not a stats man but these stats made me think, i think these would be of interest to you judo

stormy fairweather would be one

i read that a horse that has not run in this calendar year has never won a gc ?

I know people say I'm a stats man but that is not exactly true

I am a profile, preparation and performance man I'm not so many percentages and numbers if you read my thread. It's more about how and where they've been campaigned, the negatives they have against them and their effect on the probability that they win and all that combined with speed ratings and the associated performance

try long run

huh?

long run was 62 days what is the other?

yep

stop being cryptic, brain fog, working too many hours... what about Long Run?

Simonsig?

stormy fairweather

long run is the one winner the other is juveigner. do you want the paul nicholls stats judo? but the most intersting one imo is p hobbs

stick up what you've got, all ears

Looking at Paul Nicholls overall record in the last 10 years at the Festival –

Runners 297
Winners 29
Strike rate 9.76%
Profit on turnover based on level stakes (36.53%)

Nicholls festival runners WITH Walsh on board
Runners 115
Winners 21
Strike rate 18.3%
Profit (5.0%)

Nicholls festival runners WITHOUT Walsh on board
Runners 182
Winners 8
Strike rate 4.4%
Profit (56.46%)

now we filter horses ridden by walsh in the 1st 3 in the betting

Selections - 71
wins - 20
strike rate - 28.2%
profit +24.3%

now we filter horses that have run in the last 49 days

Selections 34
Wins 13
Strike rate 38.24%
Profit +100.46%

that last one is very interesting

phillip hobbs

Let's start with his overall record over last ten festivals -

Selections 167
Winners 11
Strike rate 6.59%
Profit (26.65%)

How about getting rid of very nearly HALF of all Hobbs runners without losing a SINGLE WINNER. How would you have done that -simple. You'd have just avoided any Hobbs runner with anybody other than our man Johnson on board

Without Johnson - 81 tried and all 81 failed! ALL 81!!!What a stat that is. That is the kind of fuel our red pen needs. Rocket fuel from a stats perspective. 81 straight losers  And not many near misses either (only 2 runners up and 5 third placed horses.)

ok horses ridden by johnson

Selections 86
Winners 11
Strike rate 12.8%
Profit +44.46%

ok next filter

So, Hobbs runners with Johnson aboard having had a run within the last 49 days gave the following return -

Selections 55
Winners 10
Strike rate 18.2%
Profit +110.9%

david pipe next anyone?????

great stuff

sorry one more major filter for hobbs before we move to big dave pipe

So far we've said back all his horses ridden by Johnon which have run in last 50 days. The final thing we're going to look at is his record in handicaps Vs non-handicaps.

Looking at our remaining qualifiers and winners (55 & 10) only TWO of the winners came in handicaps from a total of 23 runners, resulting in a loss of >10%. Conversely, His non-handicap runners (with Johnson and ran in last 50 days) racked up 8 wins from 32 runners for a very healthy strike rate of 25% and a whopping profit of 63.5 pts to a 1 pt level stake - equating to 198% profit on turnover.

That is a fantastic return. Absolutely top-notch.

Selections 32
Winners 8
Strike rate 25%
Profit +198.5%

awesome work, love it, thread in favourites

Let's start with David Pipe.

He has pretty much the same type of profile as his father. Very low strike rate overall and a lot of darts thrown at the board. They've had more runners than either Nicholls or Henderson but far fewer winners. It's fair to say that Pipe jnr hasn't had the same firepower as those other yards, and that is reflected in one of the key things you need to look at with the yard.

SEVEN of David Pipe's eight winners have come in handicaps. He's only had one win (Our Vic) from 59 tries in non-handicaps. 13 of that 59 have started in a prominent (first three of jt third) market position so he has had fancied runners, but not a lot to show for it. Well Chief (twice), Grand Crus (twice), Our Vic, Over The Creek, Osana (twice) and Tamarinbleu are just some of the high profile horses that haven't quite managed to get home in front, despite being well fancied.

On the other hand, he has had winners for five of the last six years in at least one handicap at the festival. He seems to invariably have horses laid out for handicaps at the meeting.

So, step 1 with David Pipe - IGNORE his runners in non-handicaps and focus only on his handicap runners. Tune in tomorrow evening to find out some easy rules which will help you to separate the Pipe handicap wheat from the chaff - I'll illustrate a simple system that would have returned almost 100% profit on turnover onm Pipe's handicap runners by applying only two simple rules.


The overall record is -

Selections 103
Winners 7
Strike Rate 6.8%
Profit -22%

The starting point is to take out the 'no-hopers' that start at 33/1 or more. I accept that one day one of these may come in but Pipe is not in the habit of letting his fancied runners in handicaps at the festival go unbacked and not a single one of the 34 who've started at that price or greater has made the first three in the frame (4 have been fourth including the doughty Battle Group - twice!).

Taking that 34 out improves things dramatically and we are now in profitable territory -

Selections 69
Winners 7
Strike rate 10.%
Profit +16.4%

The last piece of the Pipe jigsaw...

Placing handicappers is an art. And timing is part of that art. David Pipe seems to have an established pattern relating to the timing of the last runs of his successful festival handicappers.

Of the 7 winners only one, Gaspara, has run within the last five weeks leading up to its race at the festival. That is from 32 runners (starting

the thing is Hobbs has had some brilliant novices/juveniles in the last decade, he has nothing lately.

all in hindsight

That is from 32 runners (starting

That is from 32 runners (starting

That is from 32 runners (starting

These have been lifted from The Racing Forum

bloody cut and paste

jackie moon is right but they are interesting stats

That is from 32 runners (starting

come on, we need part 2

it maybe to long

The David Pipe system is...

Back in handicaps only
Only those starting

starting...

The David Pipe system is...

Back in handicaps only
Only those starting

won,t let me past fack all now

tap the record player on the side gently and the needle will move into the next groove

Back in handicaps only
Only those starting

so what about Colour Squadron?

back in handicaps only
only those starting -33-1
ignore those that have ran in the last 35 dyas the pipe horse are laid out for the handicaps

selections 37
winners     6
strike rate 16.22%
profit +  102%

sorry folks the old cut and paste has gone a bit pete tong but as mary says its on the TRF forum and is a good read

mcoy rides colour squadron if thats what your on about mate, the filter is on hobbs horses ridden by johnson

yes so leave it out

What is hendersons record at the cheltenham festival with horses that have not had a prep e.g. not run for 60+ days before the festival


Selections 76
Winners 2
Strike rate 2.63%
Profit -76.97%

how does this bode for

riverside theatre, bobs worth, granduet and simonsig off the top of me head???????

does that henderson stat take into account the terrible ground in the last sixty days

it didnt stop the best horse in the yard running on terrible ground, hendo clearly likes prep runs with his horses check the strike rates, fwiw i have not backed any of the hendo runners i mentioned but if i had it would be a worry....

I've had my own doubts about the lack of a prep for many of his. This would appear to support the theory.

cheers alleged if he did'nt like the ground he would'nt of risked ss .got to be a negative  for the others then

thought id fill in the rest of the henderson mo in

Henderson stats

Runners 276
Wins 21
Strike rate 7.6%
Profit -5.1%

focusing on horses ridden by the stable jockey

Selections 66
Winners 10
Strike rate 15.2%
Profit +12.3%

Taking OUT the Henderson/Geraghty handicap runners we are left with a much better strike rate AND profit

Selections 38
Wins 9
Strike rate 23.7%
Profit 55.6%

in the first 3 or joint third in the market leaves us with

Selections 21
winners 8
Strike Rate 38.1%
Profit +71.95%