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Right guys as expected this years Arkle looks like it's boiled down to a two horse race. Can't wait to see it!! Overturn blasting off in front and BG following on Simonsig waiting to pounce. How do you think it's going to play out? I'm a HUGE Simonsig fan and am on him at 6/1! Should be one of the races of the meeting!! BRING IT ON!!
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If If If.You've done your money and i will be the first on here to congratulate you but deep down you know it's not going to happen
Mate you couldn't even come back with a decent insult! Patter stinks!!! Favourite backing stinks even more!
Christ, you're a pair of (presumably) grown men, sat on your computers going tit for tat with some of the most childish tripe. Grow the fack up!
Now now girls behave.....still 10 days to go.
Every year there is a clutch of very short priced favourites and the only certainty is that they never all win. I backed Simonsig last September when there was some nonsense about him running in the Champion Hurdle snd he drifted out to 6/1 on here. I'm confident that he will win but not as confident as last year with the monster, who I believed unbeatable.
Every year there is a clutch of very short priced favourites and the only certainty is that they never all win. I backed Simonsig last September when there was some nonsense about him running in the Champion Hurdle snd he drifted out to 6/1 on here. I'm confident that he will win but not as confident as last year with the monster, who I believed unbeatable.
Joist man, we're havin a laff, don't take it so serious!!!
Apologies, it was just such juvenile stuff that I thought it was serious!
Back to adulthood it is then (soz trymybest fun while it lasted), i'm round about at festivalfanatics confidence level - just a chink of light, and not all 4 of the first day hotpots are going in are they?
Absolute folly to say Overturn wont get Simonsig off the bit.
Yes its possible,but theres no evidence on the track to say which of these is the best 2m chaser,let alone talking about one being so inferior as to not being able to get the other off the bit.
Yes its possible,but theres no evidence on the track to say which of these is the best 2m chaser,let alone talking about one being so inferior as to not being able to get the other off the bit.
So it's possible but at the same time absolute folly buddy.
Anythings possible,but to say it when you dont even know which horse on any known form is better??
100% correct budd there are no absolutes in horse racing, and what were there hurdle ratings?
and i know Simonsig only ran as a novice.
and i know Simonsig only ran as a novice.
No doubt we'll have a chat after the race but I don't think hurdle ratings have any relevance at all.
3 from 3 over fences a top class hurdler, of course hes got a chance, all horses have a chance and are priced accordingly.
Simonsig gallop cancelled due to frost. Hopefully get it done tomorrow morning and all goes well.
Hurdle ratings don't matter ? Should be banned from the forum IMO before you lose all ur money. Care to take a guess at how many top rated hurdles in the filed have won the last 12 runnings of the arkle ? As for not getting Simonsig of the bridle. Overturn may not win but in a coin flip it is certainly value. 11 to 4 has to be a bet and from what it's shown so far must be a bet to lay in running as it will trade shorter,
at a preview tonight and the general view was that he could do the milk round in the morning and still win the arkle in the afternoon, Barry ger was very keen on him.
The real question is how far Simonsig beats SS by when they meet next year.
If Simonsig has all this 'pace' why has he never been campaigned as a 2 miler?
they ran him over the longer distance because connections said the way he can sometimes miss a hurdle out that it would give him more time at his hurdles. BG said that he needed a fence. don't worry about his pace Hendo said he worked with a 10 furlong horse rated 114 and murdered him. BG also said there wouldne be many horses at Hendos stable that could go with him over a mile.
Firstly, I dont think NJH has an 114 horse on the flat, second, he would need to beat him as Overturn is 112 on the flat.
Don't get me wrong, I am not totally against Simonsig but I couldnt back him at current prices. Good luck to those with nice AP vouchers
Don't get me wrong, I am not totally against Simonsig but I couldnt back him at current prices. Good luck to those with nice AP vouchers
it wasin his racing post stable tour were Hendo said about stuffing a 114 flat horse on the gallops. if Overturn is rated 112 then it must aurgur very well for Simonsig that he murdered a horse rated 114.
Good point Swardean. I would like to know the name of said 114 NJH flat horse.
Argh yes, thanks harchinative, although FV not run on flat for 3 years so perhaps difficult to assume he is still anywhere near capable of that mark?
had a look at his coments again and he doesn't mention the horses name. if it was FV then he still looked to have most if not all of his old ability when he hacked up last week. Simonsig FINALLY got his workout with Groundout and Megalypos completed. Henderson said. "They worked over a mile and a quarter and they went a real good gallop". He also said "Simonsig was simply fantastic, he was some sight in full flow". I'm glad he got that out of the way.
Cant wait to see him myself giggsy, unfortunately I am not their on Tues, just the rest of the week.
as hard as i know Overturn will try i think Simonsig will follow him round on the bridle and blow him. it's a race i'd pay to watch if i had to.
Yes I'd keep your inclination to be happy to pay to watch one horse blow another to yourself
the variance between simonsigs price and overturns is daft in my view, wjhat he feck has simonsig beaten? fk all, i doubt hed begood enough to frame in a champion hurdle (overturn was ). i fully accept that simonsigs a l;vely prospect but over fences that all he is a prospect.
Just because Overturn MAY have achieved more over hurdles does not mean he will best him over fences! Simonsig has huge potential and if memory serves me right didn't Al ferof beat a certain Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme novices before bring stuffed by him in the following seasons Arkle?
overturns a great bet has looked unbelievable over fences simonsig makes one mistake he will pay,going to be an exciting race whatver happens can see simonsig fav for ryanair next year think his trip will be 2 and 1/2
the only sensible bet on overturn in my view would be to bet it now and hope he trades shorter in running so that you can trade out with a profit, i personally think he will fall short of being good enough to cope with simonsig and he may easily do too much too early and risk being out of the places alltogether come the business end of the race, difficult though it is to see whch horses might be good enough to pass him other than simonsig. best of luckt to all who have backed overturn but for me i can see simonsig taking it up after 3 out and being as ready a winner of the arkle if not more so than sprinter sacre last year.
giggsy,you must be expecting Overturn to clout one then,if you are bringing up last years Arkle!!
Major difference mate,Overturn is a natural front runner.
Major difference mate,Overturn is a natural front runner.
grw123 I have not seen evidence of Overturn 'overracing' from the front, and I only rate that prospect equally likely as Simonsig awkward at a couple and potential playing catch up.
Front runners do not win Arkles, they set them up for those behind.
Speaking to Henderson's assistant trainer last night at preview night.I'm now even more convinced than I was before that Simonsig will skate up.The faster they go the better and nothing can live with him at home.Asked him if lack of chasing experience could be a problem.Emphatically no was the answer.Had a slight trachea problem earlier in the season nothing major though and they are very bullish.
I agree that the faster Overturn goes the more it will suit Simonsig. If Overturn tries to mess about and try to slow the pace down the back straight BG will just power on and race will be over. I think we're going to witness something very special from Simonsig next Tue!!!
i missed the betfair preview night. does anybody know what did the panel said about the Arkle?
Nope,but i see Aupcharlie is still in.
Could Mullins pull a fast one?
Could Mullins pull a fast one?
Indeed he is, and all the money has dried up wanting to back him in Jewson
though refreshing to see that no one is laying anything juicy! I recently backed this fellow for the jewson without nrnb
, so do hope he goes that way! Looking at his form though he does not scream 2 miler to me, he looks a proper 2.5miler, though the conditions of an Arkle could be right up his street too! Add be surprised if they go Arkle and think hes only left in at this stage as a precautionary measure. I hope 
!
though refreshing to see that no one is laying anything juicy! I recently backed this fellow for the jewson without nrnb, so do hope he goes that way! Looking at his form though he does not scream 2 miler to me, he looks a proper 2.5miler, though the conditions of an Arkle could be right up his street too! Add be surprised if they go Arkle and think hes only left in at this stage as a precautionary measure. I hope !
Got him at huge odds for the Arkle,so hoping thats where he goes,but i would be surprised if he aint in the Jewson.
With the possibility of soft ground on the 1st has anybody's opinions changed about what way the Arkle will turn out?
Donald will be praying that the ground dries up a bit for Overturn. He has precious little chance on soft ground.
donald will do the right thing and ralise he has zero chance against the beast and take on lesser animals
yeah heard murmurings that Aintree might be on the agenda rather than Arkle. I dont beleve that but I think that's the way he should go
They have been avoiding soft ground with Overturn like the plague this season, but will put up with it for the Arkle rather than not run on it. But the fact they have ducked it all season suggests he is unlikely to be able to run to his best on it so the ground hugely favous Simonsig.
Thought Simonsig would shorten due 2 the ground possibly going against Overturn but his price has actually drifted slightly! Strange 1!
Trying to look outside the front two, think Simonsig will romp home.
Captain Conan maybe to get a place.
Captain Conan maybe to get a place.
what makes you think captain conan is running in the arkle
Henderson may be able to sucker David Pipe, but he doesn't fool me. The 'we will avoid Dynaste in the Jewson' was to get Dynaste out of the RSA to make way for Hadrians Approach, because they will believe Conan has a better chance to win against him that H.A does, plus the RSA is a better race.
giggsy , to be fair how much shorter could simonsig really get?peoplesay hurdle form is not relevant which is quite crazy, of course its not everytin and simonsig may well prove to be the better chaser, i just think that as we know overturn jumps ok simonsigs gonna have to beat a champion hurdle class horse on pure abilty.people seem to be taking simonsigs jumping as a given , agrred hes jumped ok in beating those trees hes met sofar and he may well jump even better at the certain fast pace that overturn will set , then again his jumping may fall apart.
and the names overturn has beat over fences which were not trees are
fair to say hiterlands not tree but itis a bit of a softie. the difference in my view is that simonsigs priced up like hes beaten something.strickly on what hes done over fences i personally (only my view) is a daft price.his latest victim took forever to scramble hom in a real poor race at folkstone , of course he could only bear him pointless but youd expect nothing less. lets just say both simon and overturn do jump well i the race (not a given thing either or both may be found out round chelters) , ok what proof is there to say simonsig has anymore abilty than overturn? simonsig looks a lovely horse and could possibly turn out to be the better of the two horses but at 8/11 and 5/2 theres a dft difference in price. if simonsig had run in last years champion hurdle hed have had to outrun his price by someway to place in the event yes? probably youd have to say overturns run suggests hes the better hurdler.
Overturn is a proven class hurdler who can jump a fence well,so as far as i am concerned i dont care if he has beaten trees.
Simonsig however was a novice hurdler.
Their is no clear evidence that says Simon is a better chaser than Overturn.
Main problem Overturn has now is the likely ground.
Simonsig however was a novice hurdler.
Their is no clear evidence that says Simon is a better chaser than Overturn.
Main problem Overturn has now is the likely ground.
i think youve summed it up perfectly but "theres no evidence" , i think when or if you choose to bet odds on you should require proof that the horse represts this price on what hes done rather than 2may do", like most people i wouldnt be astounded if simonsig wins. this wont be the first "match race" where something upset the applecart.
Perhaps compare some of the horses Overturn left behind in the Champion 12 months ago, if he jumps he wins...
Has everyone missed the fact that it is now going 2 b run on SOFT ground?? Overturn needs at least good/soft ground 2 have a chance of beating Simonsig! McCain has confirmed this issue many times! He's going 2 b a sitting duck from the top of the hill. If he goes off too fast then there is a chance he won't even be placed.
That's it I give up! Go ahead and waste u'r money on Overturn but there'll be a big fat I TOLD YA SO when he doesn't act on the ground and gets stuffed!
I think its fair to say they would prefer better ground for Overturn but i dont think its clear cut that he cant win on soft ground. I wont be betting in the race but i hope nothing catches Overturn. Hard not to love a horse like him.
Giggsy so your argument against overturn now is based on the ground? When at the start of this thread the likelihood was for good ground?
I have ALWAYS had confidence in Simonsig winning the Arkle. The ground going against Overturn has now made me even more confident. The only worry I had was if Overturn blasted off on good ground and jumped brilliantly. In that case he might have made Simonsig work for it. Now he going to have to try it on ground that everyone including connections know he isn't at his best on. If he goes off too fast he won't get home. If he tries to set a slower pace then he'll be taken on by Arvika and possibly Majalla and again have no chance. If he wins I'll be the 1st to say I was wrong but whatever way the race is run I can't see him winning on soft ground.
I would hugely agree that if it is soft and holding... Simonsig will win. But on genuine good ground I wouldnt bet in the race
i don't think we have enough evidence of how Overturn will perform on really soft going BUT as a Chester Cup winner he's shown already he can keep up a good gallop and stay 2m at flat speed which is half a stride faster than jumps. Saw Overturn win at Musselburgh and although I'm pretty sure Tetlami had an off day, Overturn just kept accelerating. Musselburgh totally different track of course but if Overturn handles the undulations at Cheltenham, Simonsig is going to have to go faster than he has over fences to date, to keep tabs and who knows how each will then handle the jumping. At the prices it will be Overturn for me.
I was at Chester on Chester Cup day this year when Overturn finished second, and despite being described as soft the conditions really were desperate. Obviously totally different jumping, but to perform that well in those conditions does give me some hope.
And what weight was he carrying in the Chester cup? At a guess I'd say it was a couple of STONE less than he will be having to carry on Tue. No wonder he was able to keep up s good gallop all the way. Also how can u compare running round in a circle at Chester and the demands ofChelteham? Your right about 1 thing NH soft is a lot softer than soft on the flat.
When Overturn was beat on soft at Chester he was joint top-weight - you see Chester Cup is a handicap - giving winner 13lbs! So the actual weight carried means nothing in the Arkle because they'll all be level weights
giggsy, don't think it's smart to attack the poster for making a comment about overturn perhaps being able to handle soft ground. Good point, I had forgot about this years Chester Cup where he did run well despite trying to give Il De Rea 13lbs!
Also you say what weight was he carrying, well he was carrying top weight like Gordon said so I don't see your point on that front?
Also you say what weight was he carrying, well he was carrying top weight like Gordon said so I don't see your point on that front?
Then could you do me a favour and explain to me why he's drifting on Betfsir? He was 3.9 this morning and he is now 4.6!
Because the soft ground diminishes his chance. Obviously he has a better chance on good ground, that's not to say he has NO chance on soft though!
I'm an overturn fan but the ground is a big worry now isn't it, he needs to get into that fast, slick rhythm jumping from fence to fence, that's when he'd have a good chance I thought of getting the fav. into trouble, anything that interferes with that and gives simonsig that bit of respite in behind isn't good news for overturn backers.
Mccain acknowledges that the soft ground is a worry, he says he'll handle it, but he says it in a way not dissimilar to say how some bloke may handle the mother-in- law coming round for the week-end, yeh, you'll get through it, but it won't be a pleasant experience.
Yeh,its a worry for Overturn.
I have him from ages ago at 9/1,but no way would i back him at current price on the likely going.
Hes still a chance,but it is diminished a tad now.
I have him from ages ago at 9/1,but no way would i back him at current price on the likely going.
Hes still a chance,but it is diminished a tad now.
point i was making giggsy is that they have largely avoided soft ground with the horse, but he performed with great credit on what was probably the softest ground he encountered. so despite the apparent reservations of the the trainer, we cant be sure the horse wont put in a big performance. as for the demands of cheltenham, he has ran very well there before so i dont see that being a massive concern. i think the positions in the market of the two are correct, but im a huge fan of overturn as every challenge thrown in front of him he seemingly rises to.
MACKIES he may have run well on FLAT soft around a tight course like Chester and run very well on fast ground at Cheltenham but its the combination of soft and a demanding course that will be the problem. I'll admit that he always tries his heart out but at Cheltenham you need virtually everything in your favour and ground not being in your favour is a major negative.
I REALLY hate to say it but......................I TOLD YA SO!!!!! I knew Overturn would get stuffed and I even said that he wouldn't get placed. Ok Simonsig wasn't overly impressive but he won despite s lot going against him!
Shame AL went wrong or whatever it was, he was going well.
Get in Simonsig. Was a bit worried when he made a mistake, but it was good that he won me some cash today; anyone know where he goes next, as i also have him in a bet to remain unbeaten for the season?
Went past Overturn like it was standing still after running with the choke out all the way and jumping sloppily.See the hurdle ratings were really relevant.The silence is almost deafening.
Simonsig was very green and won almost in spite of himself. I think they'll up him in trip next season. He won't beat the monster over 2 miles as long as he has a hole in his ar*e.
they'll have to get him to settle before they even think about putting him up in trip. henderson seems to think he's a 2 miler but they will have to run him against Sprinter all season if they stick to 2 miles.
Well done winners. I dont think Arvika and Overturn did each other any favours, and i have no doubt they will both be better chasers than they showed yesterday, but despite the proximity of Baily Green the best horse won and is open to any amount of improvement.
Could there be something up with McCains horses some very bad runs from his stable yesterday (Cinders and Ashes, Krushlin)and to be fair Overturn was beaten before his mistake. Well done all Simonsig backers.
yes thats possible,he did not front run as quick and fluent like he normally does.
I have a mate with a horse at McCains and he was told Our Mick aside, not to back any it the rest. Not happy with his horses apparently.
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