Cheltenham Festival
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Right guys as expected this years Arkle looks like it's boiled down to a two horse race. Can't wait to see it!! Overturn blasting off in front and BG following on Simonsig waiting to pounce. How do you think it's going to play out? I'm a HUGE Simonsig fan and am on him at 6/1! Should be one of the races of the meeting!! BRING IT ON!!
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It will be giggsy, no doubt.
I cant decide between the two and so, at the prices, will probably have a fun bet on overturn. |
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I've just written up my thoughts, posting on my thread now
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OVERTURN will not be OVERTAKEN!
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as i said i am a huge Simonsig fan but i am very fearful of Overturn. I just think if he rubs one Simonsig wont give him a 2nd chance a will be away and gone. the one thing Simonsig has over Sprinter Sacre from last year is that we know he will stay the trip no problem so BG can send him on as early as he wants and not have to worry about him getting home.
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I'm backing overturn at the prices. I think its a coin flip as others have stated.
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I was getting 5/6 and better on Sprinter Sacre at this time last year, including £200 money back if second offer, which was a truly outstanding price. I had full confidence he had at least 10lb in hand and no fear at all
if I had to take 8/11 Simonsig I would not have the same degree of confidence at all - although that is mainly because he missed his prep race. Had he run at Newbury and won he would probably be a 1.6 shot so you are getting 0.2 more for the uncertainty following missing the prep. far better punting races imo |
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At the Glasgow Hilton charity bash last night, apparently BJG described both Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre as 'outstanding' horses. Might just have been a sop to Ronnie Barlett, organiser of the evening of course! I understand that Hendo doesn't think there is much between them....the monster the better jumper, Simonsig more speed.
If Simonsig runs his race, I find it difficult to imagine Overturn being good enough. |
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If Simonsig runs his race, I find it difficult to imagine Overturn being good enough.
this is precisely why I'm concerned as for Simonsig having more speed I totally disagree! |
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I find it hard to believe too judo but Simonsig has more speed than the monster...apparently!
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not according to my ratings, Sprinter Sacre ran faster on his chase debut than Simonsig has in either of his two starts and massively faster since
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"IF" overturn runs his race and jumps as well as he can I don't think simonsig will get to him can't afford to have his rhythm broken at all, we are talking about overturn though who if you want reliability to come to the right horse, hope he does it.
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Overturn is the loveable bridesmaid.......... but never the bride when it comes to the Festival. Lovely horse but always finds one or two better. Not quite good enough and he us up against one destined for greatness here.
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Simonsig is the best horse Henderson has had based on his work - he monsters everything at home.
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Simonsig has bags of pace. Henderson said in Racing Post last week that Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre are two of the best work horses he has ever had. he also said that Simonsig worked with a 10 furlong horse rated 114 and murdered him. he doesn't like to work them together incase they take each other on and do too much. BG also said that there wouldn't be many horses in the stable that could go with him over 1m. don't worry bout him having enough pace. the quicker Overturn goes the better BG will be able to settle him.
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He's got to jump at that pace as well guys.
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there are no guarantees about any horse making it round. all you can do is go by what evidence you have and to me his jumping has been great. BG always said that he needs a fence.
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might not be a 2 horse race ,just read that Henderson says that if Dynaste goes Jewson then Capt conan may go Arkle
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I couldnt back Captain conan with counterfit after his last run.
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then more fool you
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His current price is an insult.
Yes he won well fto but not sure he beat much. Looked very laboured last time out and i'm not sure he wants 2m5f with an uphill finish. |
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well he wont have 2.5 in the arkle will he
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Agree with Eboue Conan is a boat I'd put him in the four miler
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He wont run in that race though shirley?
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yer he is a total nag no good at all Heanderson dont rate him and he count win a egg and spoon race,that settles that then
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Not saying he's a nag but I am questioning his price for the jewson based on his only chase start over 2m4f.
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you have got to respect overturn and what the horse has achieved but SIMONSIG is a monster, simple as that. This is the only horse imo on the planet who could give sprinter sacre the most to do (at 2 miles), thats if they where to be racing against eachover of course. Has bags and bags of speed and will beat overturn very comfortable.
I respect all the overturn fans on here but SIMONSIG is on another level. just my opinion. |
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The one niggle I have about Simonsig, is what will he do in a battle if he gets into one. The only time he's needed to I think was against Fingal Bay at Sandown, where he didn't find anywhere near what you might have hoped he would.
Of course, it may not matter if he canters past Overturn 2 out. |
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Simonsig with his c0ck hanging out imo ...monster
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Think Simonsig will win this easily.
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i have backed Overturn but just looked at simonsigs Kempton win again and have to say it was an absulutly brilliant performance,it may turn out that Overturn will struggle to go simonsigs pace.
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your spelling is certainly not brilliant
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Anaglogs Daughter the last horse to make all in Arkle many moons ago. Tough ask for Overturn to do same especially with Simonsig stalking.
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The spelling and grammer police are out again i see. Go watch a bit of countdown for yourself but try not to **** in your jocks mate.
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*grammar
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I think Overturn will be forced to go quicker than even he wants to go due to Simonsigs pace.this is why i love NH racing and Cheltenham over all other meetings. u wouldn't get people arguing for their picks like this if it was Royal Ascot or Glorious Goodwood. Like i said above BRING IT ON!!!
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sorry Joist to much time spent in bookies when i should have been in school. Life has been good so far so i wont let it get me down.
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Giggsy - that's not possible, because Overturn always wants to go as fast as he possibly can. In any case don't think there is the slightest chance of Simonsig taking him on for the lead, or anywhere before they are coming to the last. Not saying he couldn't, just that he won't. They know Overturn will go flat out, they know Simonsig has a better turn of foot. He apparently "worked all over a 113 rated flat horse" recently - presumably the one that hosed up at Kempton last week.
I just hope we get decent ground then it should be a race to savour. If it's soft, Overturn has no chance. |
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With all due respect to simonsig and overturn who are both smashing equine beasts and both won me money at last years festival for winning and placing in their respective races, I would like to make a case for Arvika Ligeonniere who i think is a forgotton horse in this so called 'match' on this thread. AL has won 2 G1 chases in Ireland beating similar calibre or better horses as simonsig and overturn on bad ground aswell and could concievably have won 3 G1'S if standing up last time as he beat the winner 16 lens the time before. (moscow flyer also fell in this race before winning his arkle).This will be AL's 5 th chase start as 7 of the last 8 winners , with the exception being SS last year on his 4th start. simonsig has won 2 GD2 chases so lacks experience over fences yes he has won PTP (and also fell in one) but regulation fences only 2, the last horse to win with such inexperience was well chief in 2004. Overturn has won a couple of class 4 chases and a class 3 beating relative donkeys (tetlami prob better than donkey but not visually impressive LTO) and is 9 years old , the last 9yo to run in the arkle was captain ceebee who went off fav and was left well behind by Sizing Europe a horse who has a similar chase profile to AL. i would love to hear if anyone agrees or disagrees with me as i read the race for Sizing Europe's arkle this way and feel i'm on my own this time aswell.
Good Luck All hope you have the wheelbarrows ready for the bookie bashing!!! |
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I'd personally find it v. disappointing is Arvika is good enough to be an Arkle winner. I know he's won Grade 1s but it means nothing if the fields aren't Grade 1 quality, which beating Oscars Well twice doesn't really equate to given that one's apparent mediocrity. I think Walsh simply rode the others to sleep in the Drinmore and his RP win is nothing special. However I will admit to having not warmed to the horse which often leads to a bias, but I'd be disappointed if either Simonsig or Overturn weren't too good for AL.
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