Cheltenham Festival
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Name your lay of the festival (with reason)
Name your lay of the festival (with reason)
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Replies: 172
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There is every chance he prefers it very soft imo -
I thought that if it was good ground in the Betfair Hurdle then Cotton Mill would would have finished quite a bit closer and MTOY would not be 13/8 right now. |
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MTOY's is a bit like the "cue ball" scenario in pool, you know that you are about to take a shot that's an in off, but you STILL bloody play it and the white goes in and you stand there saying, "I knew that was an in off"
 , with MTOY's we know the supreme is littered with short priced disaster stories, we know it's a bloody accident waiting to happen, but you still bloody go ahead and back it |
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I will probably lump on it for a place.
Billy Big balls me. |
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MTOY's is a bit like the "cue ball" scenario in pool, you know that you are about to take a shot that's an in off, but you STILL bloody play it and the white goes in and you stand there saying, "I knew that was an in off"Cry, with MTOY's we know the supreme is littered with short priced disaster stories, we know it's a bloody accident waiting to happen, but you still bloody go ahead and back it
Or this year having backed it at nice odds convince and reassure yourself it will be different this year - knowing in the pit of your stomach that any other year you'd be wanting to find one to oppose him with  |
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Un Atout is a joke price in the Supreme as well imo. Beaten very little in average races yet is half the price of Champagne Fever?! Madness I tell you.
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Laying SDC because he beat one of the best 3 milers in racing.
Makes sense |
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sometimes you just can't see them being beat yet history tells us otherwise....
LAY all these big uns! Oscar Whiskey HFly MTOY Bobs Worth Simonsig Ponte Alexandre Dynaste Quevega and dare I say it....... Sprinter Sacre By laying all of them I will be shocked if this group did not give us a profit. |
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loved the in/off analogy duffy
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Great analogy roo, I backed MTOY on here at 20s and traded out at 2.88 so I've made a nice profit. I won't be backing him in the supreme and will turn layer if he goes below 2.2 on here.
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boston bob in rsa.....wouldnt win if it started now.
needs further,soft ground,always overbet,if it was residing in durham itd be double the odds... |
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tsk the trainer is a past master of preparing horses for the RSA and the horse is representing the best trial which is the previous seasons Albert Bartlett and it won one of the key trials for the race the Dr. P.J. Moriarty chase grade 1. You really want to be laying a horse like that at 7.8 or whatever? I can think of better 1/7.8 shots than that
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SDS is my lay none of his form stacks up, he beat the non stayer and sick horse flemenstar he has beaten champion court who has been smashed by conti and LR, he took the soft options in martin pipe and jewson, on form lines has no chance with BW, those that think it will stay better than LR please get your heads out the clouds, will be fighting out 5th or 6th with TGB imho
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none of his form stacks up? what about the Lexus? never jumped a twig but would have won going away with another half furlong to run, watch the replay he has only just hit full stride as they hit the line, two strides later he is in front, bounces off good ground and bounded up the hill last year and is unbeaten in two runs at the festival... and that's your lay of the Festival?
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Championship Court was beaten by Conti and LR over 3 miles. CC is not effective over 3 miles.
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Alleged
You could have said the same about Best Mate or War of Attrition in the run up to their Gold Cup wins. |
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it sure is judo
 he was beat by tidal bay who prob would have been running on for a place in the GC, also beat by non stayer flem and non stayer FL, took soft option both times he,s been to the festival, the horse he beat at festival has been smashed since by 2 in the top 4 in betting, cannot beat BW on all known form, it is a lay of biblical proportions imo |
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he has far more going for him than against him that's for sure unlike BW who will trying to snap all kinds of trends like only one race in the season, no prep run, less than 6 lifetime chases, did not run in either the King George or Lexus, been beaten twice when racing against SC... 3/1 you sure?
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Champion Court was beaten by Conti and LR over 3 miles. CC is not effective over 3 miles.
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Alleged.
Your foolish if you think Flemenstar is a non stayer,and very foolish if you lay SDC |
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jasey the diference being the 2 horses you mention were very very good, quite simply this horse is good no more
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we will have to disagree completely
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Judo
I know BW is an 8 year old but his rating after 5 chase runs is higher than that of Denman and Kauto after they had 5 chase starts. It probably means diddly squat but i found it interesting. I just wonder how much improvement he has in him. |
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I wonder how he will perform at al Ange mate, no prep run is a major no no in a brutal race like this. He will need to be Arkle reborn
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No horse will outstay him,to me visually he looks the real deal.
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im not saying BW will win judo but on all known form SDS has no chance
Your foolish if you think Flemenstar is a non stayer i do realise the horse was sick lto but he cruises over 2m4f and struggles imo over 3m, this is from my visual impression. |
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in december he did but at 3/1 in a Gold Cup with all the negatives to overcome? not for me - it's a take it on the chin if he wins job. I really don't think he will
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However if he runs up to his mark he will be hard to beat. Nothing suggests he can`t produce his top form after a break and he seems to relish what Cheltenham throws at him.
Sure he will have to buck the trends but if he ran up to 171 last year he would have won. |
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we will have to disagree completely
if sdc places i will eat humble pie sir  |
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BW ^^^
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oh will you shut up about form ffs
sorry but I have spent the last 3 weeks solid doping nothing analysing form and races and ratings for the Festival and I will tell you on my 'Peak Performance Potential' ratings SDC is 6lb clear of BW. I do not need a fecking form lesson thank you very much indeed. |
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SDC is 6lb clear of BW
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This is funny because i will be backing both BW and SDC, i think they have it between them. I just favour BW but it will be split stakes on both for me.
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Going down a length to SDC is not struggling at 3 mile,
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Other way round Alleged. I was talking about BW
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It`s not that Flemenstar does not stay 3 miles it`s just that there are better horses over 3 miles.
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fwiw ive backed captain chris and SC, SC doesnt fit your trend because they skipped the festival last year because they had a future gold cup horse on their hands, how do trends take that into consideration each horse is an individual and should be treated like so imo
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Going down a length to SDC is not struggling at 3 mile,
it is if you don,t rate SDC matey |
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SC has beat nothing this year no battles,no digging deep,whats he got in his locker
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This is a classic debate with neither side listening to the other.
The 'form' is debatable, which is why you all have different opinions! I'll throw another cat in amongst a growing flock of pigeons by saying a lot of people could look foolish if it turns out that Tidal Bay has not been running to the marks everyone assumes he has. I don't think it is easy to put a figure on what SDC or BW have achieved this year. It wouldn't be a shock if it was as much as everyone seems to think but equally it wouldn't be a shock if it is considerably less. I think Silviniaco Conti has achieved considerably more this year, and he is the one to beat with me. |
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debate is good no?
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